Next-to-Last Rankings

I started this Thursday afternoon and got bogged down in thesis work. So this includes the RPI for Thursday and was up-to-date with top seeds at about 2pm Thursday. Remember, the teams in Bold are the top seed in the conference tournament (or highest remaining seed) and the teams in Bold Italics have locked their bid.

1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: West Virginia
4: Syracuse
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburg (Big East)
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Texas A&M
11: Tennessee
12: Baylor
13: Wisconsin
14: Purdue
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac-10)
19: Michigan State
20: Ohio State (Big Ten)
21: Temple (A-10)
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Xavier
24: Louisville
25: Texas
26: Clemson
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Georgia Tech
31: Brigham Young
32: Florida State
33: Northern Iowa (MVC)
34: Missouri
35: San Diego State
36: Dayton
37: Utah State (WAC)
38: Gonzaga
39: Notre Dame
40: Old Dominion (Colonial)
41: Marquette
42: Cincinnati
43: Florida
44: UTEP (C-USA)
45: Seton Hall
46: Memphis
47: Washington
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: St. Mary's (WCC)
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Oakland (Summit)
52: Cornell (Ivy)
53: Wofford (SoCon)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Montana (Big Sky)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: North Texas (Sun Belt)
60: Robert Morris (NEC)
61: Morgan State (MEAC)
62: Winthrop (Big South)
63: Vermont (Am. East)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)

Last Four In: Washington, Memphis, Seton Hall, Florida
First Four Out: UAB, Rhode Island, UNLV, Wichita State
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, William & Mary

Championship Week Rankings Part 1

Because these will change quickly by next Monday, I will do another ranking Thursday. For right now, the teams in Bold are the top seed in the conference tournament (or highest remaining seed) and the teams in Bold Italics have locked their bid.

1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Syracuse (Big East)
4: West Virginia
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Baylor
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Wisconsin
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac 10)
19: Michigan State
20: Louisville
21: Ohio State
22: Temple (A-10)
23: Xavier
24: Texas
25: Clemson
26: Butler (Horizon)
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Florida State
31: Georgia Tech
32: Missouri
33: Brigham Young
34: Northern Iowa (MVC)
35: Gonzaga (WCC)
36: Utah State (WAC)
37: San Diego State
38: Dayton
39: Florida
40: Marquette
41: Notre Dame
42: Rhode Island
43: UTEP (C-USA)
44: Washington
45: Memphis
46: Old Dominion (Colonial)
47: UAB
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: Arizona State
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Oakland (Summit)
53: Weber State (Big Sky)
54: Wofford (SoCon)
55: Sam Houston State (Southland)
56: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
57: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Troy (Sun Belt)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Winthrop (Big South)
62: Stony Brook (Am. East)
63: Lehigh (Patriot)
64: Quinnipiac (NEC)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)

Just Missed It (Needs a big win or someone else's big loss): UNLV, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, St. Mary's.

Some interesting notes:
- The rankings had just one Pac-10 team (California) all season and now there are three (Washington and Arizona State). The weakness of the Pac-10 is still real, they just took awhile to get rolling in the conference season... plus going 1-11 in the Pac-10/Big 12 Hardwood Series really hurts.
- The only real upset in the early tournaments so far was #5 seed ETSU winning the Atlantic Sun... but when the #1, #3, and #4 lose in round one (and the #2 in round two) it's bound to happen. Of all the conferences, the leader of this one switched multiple times. I've primarily had Jacksonville in the rankings, and sometimes Belmont (and Lipscomb was actually the #1 seed), so was this a strong conference or a really weak one?
- St. Mary's is out. They'll stay out if they don't beat Gonzaga in the WCC Championship tonight. That will make them 0-for-7 against the Zags in the last 3 years.
- All the bubble teams are praying for Gonzaga, Utah State, UTEP, Kent State, and Butler (and no ridiculous upsets in other tournaments, either)... all five of those teams may not need to win their tournament to get in.

Pre-Championship Week Ranks

Now that it's March, college basketball season can really begin. In five days we'll have our first "locked" bid for the tournament, and when the top 3 teams all lose this weekend, it's going to get pretty crazy.

1: Syracuse (Big East)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Kansas State
4: Kansas (Big 12)
5: West Virginia
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Georgetown
9: Villanova
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Wisconsin
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Vanderbilt
15: New Mexico (MWC)
16: Baylor
17: Maryland
18: Michigan State
19: Xavier (A-10)
20: California (Pac-10)
21: Ohio State
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Texas
24: Oklahoma State
25: Temple
26: Louisville
27: Georgia Tech
28: Wake Forest
29: Connecticut
30: Clemson
31: BYU
32: Missouri
33: Richmond
34: Gonzaga (WCC)
35: Marquette
36: Florida State
37: Dayton
38: Northern Iowa (MVC)
39: Rhode Island
40: Utah State (WAC)
41: Florida
42: San Diego State
43: Old Dominion (Colonial)
44: UNLV
45: Notre Dame
46: Illinois
47: Siena (MAAC)
48: UAB
49: UTEP (C-USA)
50: Kent State (MAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Weber State (Big Sky)
53: Oakland (Summit)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Wofford (Southern)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: Troy (Sun Belt)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Belmont (A-Sun)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Stony Brook (Amer. East)
62: Robert Morris (NEC)
63: Coastal Carolina (Big South)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)

Just Missed It: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, St. Mary's, Wichita State.

So, to focus on the Big 12 (which should be locked on 7 teams in with no bubble teams) we have to look at what the "bottom 5" can do to screw things up. Oklahoma and Texas Tech are looking at matching up in the 8-9 game of the Big12 tourney, so one of them won't be dangerous. But Tech is like Baylor last year, an upset of the 1-seed and a run to the title game might be enough.
As for Mizzou, ESPN has the Tigers as a 7-seed, but I've got them as an 8. The loss to K-State probably revealed what's missing from last year. If you've got the guards to run with them and avoid back-court turnovers, and you've got the big men to clog the inside, and they can't make threes, you can beat them. Last year, Carroll and Lyons were able to help pull out the junk wins because they could score inside... Ramsey and Moore don't look to score unless it's off rebounds. There is the difference.

Basketball Stretch Run

Just about everyone has four games left in their season, and the bubble got thinner this weekend with the Bracketbuster games knocking some of the high-rising mid-majors off their at-large bid bids (Siena, Wichita State, Utah State). Look out for some crazy finishes this week.

1: Duke (ACC)
2: Kansas (Big12)
3: Syracuse (Big East)
4: West Virginia
5: Kansas State
6: Georgetown
7: Pittsburgh
8: Kentucky (SEC)
9: Purdue (Big Ten)
10: Villanova
11: Texas A&M
12: Vanderbilt
13: Wisconsin
14: Tennessee
15: Baylor
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Michigan State
18: Temple
19: Xavier
20: Ohio State
21: Louisville
22: California (Pac10)
23: Texas
24: Butler (Horizon)
25: Wake Forest
26: Maryland
27: Georgia Tech
28: Clemson
29: Gonzaga (WCC)
30: Oklahoma State
31: Connecticut
32: Richmond (A-10)
33: Missouri
34: Texas Tech
35: Northern Iowa (MVC)
36: Rhode Island
37: BYU
38: Dayton
39: UNLV
40: Florida State
41: Utah State (WAC)
42: Marquette
43: San Diego State
44: Illinois
45: UAB
46: Old Dominion (Colonial)
47: UTEP (CUSA)
48: Virginia Tech
49: Siena (MAAC)
50: Kent State (MAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Weber State (Big Sky)
53: Oakland (Summit)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
56: Wofford (Southern)
57: Murray State (OVC)
58: Jacksonville (A-Sun)
59: North Texas (Sun Belt)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Robert Morris (NEC)
62: Coastal Carolina (Big South)
63: Stony Brook (Amer. East)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)

Just missed it: Wichita State, Mississippi State, St. Mary's, William & Mary.

Basketball Week 3

As always, automatic bids are in bold (and these reflect games through Monday):

1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: West Virginia
4: Syracuse (Big East)
5: Kansas State
6: Georgetown
7: Villanova
8: Kentucky (SEC)
9: Pittsburgh
10: Wisconsin
11: Purdue
12: Texas A&M
13: Vanderbilt
14: Tennessee
15: Wake Forest
16: Baylor
17: New Mexico (MWC)
18: Temple (A-10)
19: Michigan State (Big 10)
20: Gonzaga (WCC)
21: California (Pac-10)
22: Texas
23: Georgia Tech
24: Butler (Horizon)
25: Xavier
26: Louisville
27: Ohio State
29: Richmond
30: Rhode Island
31: Clemson
32: Texas Tech
33: UNLV
34: Dayton
35: BYU
36: Oklahoma State
37: Northern Iowa (MVC)
38: Old Dominion (Colonial)
39: Florida State
40: Illinois
41: San Diego State
42: Marquette
43: Missouri
44: UAB
45: Notre Dame
46: Charlotte
47: UTEP (C-USA)
48: Utah State (WAC)
49: Siena (Metro)
50: Kent State (MAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Weber State (Big Sky)
53: Oakland (Summit)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
56: Charleston (Southern)
57: Belmont (A-Sun)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Stony Brook (A-East)
62: Robert Morris (NEC)
63: Lehigh (Patriot)
64: Coastal Carolina (Big South)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, Wichita State.

The conference tourneys are approaching and it'll get harder to identify the leaders of the mid-majors each week. For example, Belmont and Jacksonville are tied in the Atlantic Sun, but Belmont has the higher RPI and is moving up. Old Dominion and Northeastern (just on the outside as well) are also tied in the Colonial.
As for Mizzou's chances... a win tonight over Texas will go a long way. Basically you can break their 6 remaining games down in two groups. Have to wins at Nebraska (2/20), Colorado (2/24), and at Iowa State (2/27) and hope to wins Texas (tonight), at Kansas State (3/2), and Kansas (3/6). If they win one of the "hope to wins" and all the "have to wins" they finish 22-9 (10-6). That puts them in the 5-7 seed range with a winnable first round Big-12 game (Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State). Win that one and they should be in. They would have no BAD conference losses (at Oklahoma is defendable), 2 of the 3 teams they lost to out-of-conference (at Vanderbilt and neutral-Richmond) are solid locks right now, and they have wins that are getting better by the day (neutral-Illinois, neutral-Old Dominion, Kansas State, Oklahoma State). Pulling out that Baylor win would have been much nicer, but if they knock off Texas tonight, they don't have to win in Manhattan or try to topple kU here.

Basketball Rankings Week 2 and Missed Super Bowl

I blew the Super Bowl blog... but my excuse is that two blogs a week would be too much time away from my important work. I would have picked the Colts, not sure why, probably because it was the safe pick... I definitely would not have guessed there would only be 1 turnover and 1 sack and the game would be over before 9pm. Props to the Saints for playing the most aggressive Super Bowl I've seen.

On to the Rankings...
1: Syracuse
2: West Virginia
3: Kansas
4: Duke
5: Georgetown
6: Kansas State
7: Villanova
8: Wisconsin
9: Kentucky
10: Purdue
11: Michigan State
12: Tennessee
13: Georgia Tech
14: Pittsburgh
15: Texas A&M
16: Vanderbilt
17: New Mexico
18: Butler
19: Temple
20: Wake Forest
21: Texas
22: Baylor
23: Gonzaga
24: California
25: Xavier
26: Rhode Island
27: Northern Iowa
28: Maryland
29: Texas Tech
30: Ohio State
31: Mississippi
32: Dayton
33: Connecticut
34: BYU
35: UNLV
36: Clemson
37: South Florida
38: Florida State
39: Oklahoma State
40: Richmond
41: Missouri
42: Marquette
43: UAB
44: Northeastern
45: Siena
46: St. Mary's
47: Charlotte
48: UTEP
49: Utah State
50: Cornell
51: Kent State
52: Oakland
53: Weber State
54: Sam Houston State
55: Charleston
56: Pacific
57: Belmont
58: Arkansas State
59: Murray State
60: Morgan State
61: Robert Morris
62: Stony Brook
63: Coastal Carolina
64: Lehigh
65: Jackson State

Just missed it: Notre Dame, Old Dominion, Wichita State, Illinois, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Louisiana Tech.

Basketball Rankings Week 1

Need a refresher? I take all the teams getting votes in both polls, and those in the top 40 of the RPI, and the first-place team in each conference (aka, the auto-bids). Then the top 65 is the teams with the lowest average of the polls, the RPI and the strength of schedule. Here's the first one (auto-bids in bold):

1: Kansas
2: Syracuse
3: Georgetown
4: West Virginia
5: Duke
6: Kansas State
7: Villanova
8: Purdue
9: Wisconsin
10: Vanderbilt
11: Michigan State
12: Tennessee
13: Kentucky
14: Pittsburgh
15: Temple
16: Georgia Tech
17: Xavier
18: Texas
19: New Mexico
20: Butler
21: Baylor
22: California
23: Rhode Island
24: Wake Forest
25: Ohio State
26: Connecticut
27: Clemson
28: Gonzaga
29: Texas A&M
30: Florida State
31: Brigham Young
32: Texas Tech
33: Northern Iowa
34: Maryland
35: Missouri
36: Marquette
37: Mississippi
38: Oklahoma State
39: Dayton
40: UAB
41: San Diego State
42: UNLV
43: Richmond
44: St. Mary's
45: Cornell
46: Charlotte
47: Siena
48: Kent State
49: Wichita State
50: UTEP
51: Oakland
52: Sam Houston State
53: Weber State
54: Charleston
55: Louisiana Tech
56: Pacific
57: Arkansas State
58: Jacksonville
59: Murray State
60: Morgan State
61: Robert Morris
62: Stony Brook
63: Coastal Carolina
64: Lehigh
65: Jackson State

Just Missed it: George Mason, Virginia Tech, Tulsa