So I had stuff to do on lunch yesterday, so you had to wait one day for the football blog, I didn't know you cared that much.
College Week 9
USC over Arizona - This is the only game I am sure about. USC is climbing back into consideration thanks to the SEC working itself out and losing early.
Wisconsin over Michigan State - Like I said, I have really no clue about the rest of these games, but speaking of climbing back into consideration, why isn't Wisconsin ranked? Losses to Oregon State and Nebraska aren't that bad. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, Wisconsin is in the driver seat to get back to the Big10 Championship.
BYU over Georgia Tech - These are the top two teams in the race for Most Schizo Team this year.
Oregon State over Washington - I seriously contemplated the upset pick here, I mean the Beavers are vulnerable and Washington is no pushover at home.
Ohio State over Penn State - I'd say this game was for the division championship, but neither is eligible to win it, so... Big10 football, where corruption and mediocrity come easily!
Michigan over Nebraska - The winner is a contender, the loser is not. Simple as that. Fix your defenses, though, seriously.
Northwestern over Iowa - Another Big10 game?? Where's Boise and the ACC this week???
Florida over Georgia - All I can think of is the World's Largest Cocktail Party.... mmmm, cocktails.
Notre Dame over Oklahoma - I officially picked this game to be 6-3. I know Oklahoma is solid at home, and they will probably still win the Big12, but I cannot pick against Manti Teo... I mean the dude's grandmother and girlfriend died like the same day... he is focused with nothing to lose.
Kansas State over Texas Tech - These teams have taken turns as the fringe Big12 contender for like 20 years... a Tech win could mean a three way tie, and we all know how they deal with ties in the Big 12 (poorly, that's the correct answer).
Last Week: 7-3 (45 pts)
Season: 50-30 (314 pts)
NFL Week 8
Vikings over Buccaneers - undefeated at home against a shaky quarterback is a pretty good reason.
Bears over Panthers - is it just me or is Jay Cutler starting to look credible? Or is it too early to tell?
Chargers over Browns - if the Browns were ever going to get a coach fired, now is the time.
Seahawks over Lions - the history of this series indicates the Seahawks secondary is not worried about Lions passing game.
Packers over Jaguars - LOCK of the week for many reasons.
Titans over Colts - Hasselback is back and the Colts are not good on the road.
Patriots over Rams - another loss for the Patriots and questions are going to need to be answered.
Jets over Dolphins - another loss for the Jets and ESPN will have 50 more hours of Sportcenter programming.
Falcons over Eagles - not going against the undefeated team, but I will say the Eagles could pull this one off.
Steelers over Redskins - Roethlisberger will shred the depleted Skins secondary. RG3 will take at least 3 cheap shots.
Raiders over Chiefs - still not picking them, even after I tell you to follow @SaveOurChiefs on Twitter. We are trying to get Paoli fired. Did you know that at one point the Raiders had lost like 15 straight to the Chiefs... if they win this one they will have won 3 straight in Arrowhead... that is inexcusable.
Giants over Cowboys - Giants on the road are almost as much of a lock as who is playing the Jaguars or Chiefs.
Broncos over Saints - Peyton Manning at home on primetime? You're kidding right? I'm starting to think he picked the Broncos because of all their primetime games this year.
49ers over Cardinals - there will be several meetings of the Missouri Smiths in the backfield on Monday.
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 63-40
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Soldiering On
Piss poor performance from me last week, and not just in picks. Terrible week for me all-around. But it's time to soldier on, get back to the basics, try to eliminate mistakes by not doing anything out of the ordinary. Home teams, defense, streaks, bye weeks. I need to pay attention to the major factors and only concern myself with substance.
College Week 8
Alabama over Tennessee - I'm sure even less than 10% of Tennessee fans are picking against Alabama this week. Pick the better defense on the longest winning streak. Champions until they are dethroned.
Clemson over Virginia Tech - Home team, day game, not on national TV, this is usually the recipe for a Clemson win, plus as shaky as their defense has been, they haven't scored less than 35 points since Labor Day.
Texas over Baylor - the Bears caught a break last year, their best team against Texas' worst team. Now that Texas has a dynamic offense, Baylor's suspect defense won't be able to hold up especially in Austin.
Northwestern over Nebraska - semi-upset special because of how uncharacteristically bad Nebraska's defense has been. Northwestern has enough weapons to make this game scary.
LSU over Texas A&M - LSU has the better defense. More importantly, A&M's defense is no where near as good as LSU's. I know Louisiana Tech is pretty good, but giving up 57 points? Wow. LSU might not be a high-powered attack, but they have more talent and can score plenty if needed.
Texas Tech over TCU - former doormats of the SWC in a game where the winner stays competitive in the Big12. Even though Tech is ripe for a let-down game, I don't think TCU's backup QB can do better than Geno Smith did.
Kansas State over West Virginia - I'll take the team that plays defense, but if the Kitty Kats turn the ball over or score to quickly, this may turn into Baylor-WVU part 2.
Michigan over Michigan State - They may not be at their best but Michigan's only two losses were to teams ranked #1 and #5 in the BCS. They really got rolling against Illinois last week.
South Carolina over Florida - Just like the LSU/A&M game, the Gamecocks have a better defense and Florida's offense is not miles better than Spurrier's.
Cal over Stanford - upset special. Stanford has been terrible on the road... no offensive touchdowns in two road games (depending on how you view their final play last week). Cal has scored plenty of points and in a rivalry game, the home team is going to have the most emotion.
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 43-27 (269 pts)
NFL Week 7
49ers over Seahawks - Seattle has played solid defense, but mostly at home. The 49ers have the better QB (even if it is Alex Smith).
Titans over Bills - maybe the Titans turned a corner last week. Hasselbeck is back under center and they might actually keep handing off to Chris Johnson.
Colts over Browns - take the home team with the better QB. Only a few guys that you can say Andrew Luck is better than at this point... Weeden is one of them.
Packers over Rams - the Rams defense has a chance to keep them in this game, but they have to keep the Packers out of the endzone. That is not happening.
Vikings over Cardinals - I suggest that the Cardinals run the Wild Larry and snap the ball to Fitzgerald so he can throw it to himself... otherwise what do they have on offense?
Giants over Redskins - We're still two games away from the Giants let down, I think they saw enough game film of RG3 running roughshod on a good Vikings defense to lose this one.
Buccaneers over Saints - Just hand the ball off Josh Freeman, and let the Saints defense do nothing.
Cowboys over Panthers - Cam Newton can put up stats all day, but with the Cowboys playing better lately, can he beat a team with substance?
Texans over Ravens - I expect two things from this game (the game of the week): Houston will be mad, and Baltimore will think they can air it out just like the Packers did last week. I think that puts their defense in a tough spot, one that is made tougher without their leader.
Raiders over Jaguars - my LOCK of the week. Seriously, without the Chiefs playing, I could go against Blaine Gabbert on the road (even if it's the Raiders), take the Patriots and their atrotious defense, the Colts, the 49ers coming off a loss, the Packers shaky offensive line, or someone from one of the 3 toss ups (Min/Ari, TB/NO, Sea/SF). Gabbert is easy money... or in this case, the Raiders are easier money.
Patriots over Jets - I believe that the Patriots don't lose 2 in a row. I believe Brady plays better against the Jets. I don't believe either Sanchez or Tebow is a winning QB. I don't believe the Jets have re-committed to the run.
Bengals over Steelers - I'll take the home team against a struggling defense. The Bengals are balances and AJ Green is always dangerous.
Bears over Lions - Sometime in November we are all going to look at the standings a go "What? The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to go through Jay Cutler's house??? How did that happen?"
Last Week: 4-10 (ouch!)
Season: 52-38
College Week 8
Alabama over Tennessee - I'm sure even less than 10% of Tennessee fans are picking against Alabama this week. Pick the better defense on the longest winning streak. Champions until they are dethroned.
Clemson over Virginia Tech - Home team, day game, not on national TV, this is usually the recipe for a Clemson win, plus as shaky as their defense has been, they haven't scored less than 35 points since Labor Day.
Texas over Baylor - the Bears caught a break last year, their best team against Texas' worst team. Now that Texas has a dynamic offense, Baylor's suspect defense won't be able to hold up especially in Austin.
Northwestern over Nebraska - semi-upset special because of how uncharacteristically bad Nebraska's defense has been. Northwestern has enough weapons to make this game scary.
LSU over Texas A&M - LSU has the better defense. More importantly, A&M's defense is no where near as good as LSU's. I know Louisiana Tech is pretty good, but giving up 57 points? Wow. LSU might not be a high-powered attack, but they have more talent and can score plenty if needed.
Texas Tech over TCU - former doormats of the SWC in a game where the winner stays competitive in the Big12. Even though Tech is ripe for a let-down game, I don't think TCU's backup QB can do better than Geno Smith did.
Kansas State over West Virginia - I'll take the team that plays defense, but if the Kitty Kats turn the ball over or score to quickly, this may turn into Baylor-WVU part 2.
Michigan over Michigan State - They may not be at their best but Michigan's only two losses were to teams ranked #1 and #5 in the BCS. They really got rolling against Illinois last week.
South Carolina over Florida - Just like the LSU/A&M game, the Gamecocks have a better defense and Florida's offense is not miles better than Spurrier's.
Cal over Stanford - upset special. Stanford has been terrible on the road... no offensive touchdowns in two road games (depending on how you view their final play last week). Cal has scored plenty of points and in a rivalry game, the home team is going to have the most emotion.
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 43-27 (269 pts)
NFL Week 7
49ers over Seahawks - Seattle has played solid defense, but mostly at home. The 49ers have the better QB (even if it is Alex Smith).
Titans over Bills - maybe the Titans turned a corner last week. Hasselbeck is back under center and they might actually keep handing off to Chris Johnson.
Colts over Browns - take the home team with the better QB. Only a few guys that you can say Andrew Luck is better than at this point... Weeden is one of them.
Packers over Rams - the Rams defense has a chance to keep them in this game, but they have to keep the Packers out of the endzone. That is not happening.
Vikings over Cardinals - I suggest that the Cardinals run the Wild Larry and snap the ball to Fitzgerald so he can throw it to himself... otherwise what do they have on offense?
Giants over Redskins - We're still two games away from the Giants let down, I think they saw enough game film of RG3 running roughshod on a good Vikings defense to lose this one.
Buccaneers over Saints - Just hand the ball off Josh Freeman, and let the Saints defense do nothing.
Cowboys over Panthers - Cam Newton can put up stats all day, but with the Cowboys playing better lately, can he beat a team with substance?
Texans over Ravens - I expect two things from this game (the game of the week): Houston will be mad, and Baltimore will think they can air it out just like the Packers did last week. I think that puts their defense in a tough spot, one that is made tougher without their leader.
Raiders over Jaguars - my LOCK of the week. Seriously, without the Chiefs playing, I could go against Blaine Gabbert on the road (even if it's the Raiders), take the Patriots and their atrotious defense, the Colts, the 49ers coming off a loss, the Packers shaky offensive line, or someone from one of the 3 toss ups (Min/Ari, TB/NO, Sea/SF). Gabbert is easy money... or in this case, the Raiders are easier money.
Patriots over Jets - I believe that the Patriots don't lose 2 in a row. I believe Brady plays better against the Jets. I don't believe either Sanchez or Tebow is a winning QB. I don't believe the Jets have re-committed to the run.
Bengals over Steelers - I'll take the home team against a struggling defense. The Bengals are balances and AJ Green is always dangerous.
Bears over Lions - Sometime in November we are all going to look at the standings a go "What? The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to go through Jay Cutler's house??? How did that happen?"
Last Week: 4-10 (ouch!)
Season: 52-38
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
... and October Drags On
I cannot even begin to talk about last week's Missouri loss. It will just get me depressed that the three teams I cheer for are perennially, at best, not that bad. The Royals fight to keep from losing 100 games every year. The Chiefs have been riding the success of the '90s for 12+ years, while making no effort to be the best. And Missouri is always a gut-wrenching loss away from being forgotten every year. It's getting harder and harder to just say, "well, maybe some day they'll win the big one," 'cause they won't.
College Week 7
Louisville over Pittsburgh - If I'm wrong about this game, the Big East is Rutgers' to lose and will once again not get much respect from the polls.
Notre Dame over Stanford - I don't think I can pick against Mante Te'o and the Irish defense right now, at least until they lose. Te'o is playing like he had nothing to lose, and that's scary.
West Virginia over Texas Tech - They scored on Texas' defense, I seriously doubt there is a defense in the Big12 that can stop them.
Boise State over Fresno State - The Broncos aren't done yet, just cause they actually lost the "big game" opener this year doesn't mean they aren't the best non-BCS team. Although, Ohio has an agrument.
South Carolina over LSU - If Georgia can only score 7, I'd be surprised in LSU scored ANYTHING.
Mississippi State over Tennessee - I'm crossing my fingers that Tennessee is actually really bad, that way (maybe) Mizzou can win a road SEC game.
Texas over Oklahoma - Also crossing my fingers that Oklahoma is actually bad, but the easy part of the schedule is coming up.
USC over Washington - Probably the last chance for the Trojans to be in good BCS shape.
Michigan State over Iowa - First team to 10 wins.
Louisiana Tech over Texas A&M - Upset special, I would have felt a lot better about it if they had played it in week 1, though.
Last Week: 6-4 (37 pts), back to earth
Season: 38-22 (235 pts)
NFL Week
Steelers over Titans - It's about that time of the year for the Steelers to win 4-6 games under the radar.
Falcons over Raiders - My LOCK of the week, the Raiders playing at 10 AM Oakland time against a team that hasn't lost yet? LOCK it.
Bengals over Browns - They already played this game, I remember how it turned out.
Rams over Dolphins - This will probably come down to a game of kickers and the Rams have the best right now.
Colts over Jets - Expect to see Tebow in this game... that's not a good thing.
Eagles over Lions - Only because the Eagles are playing some great defense and the Madden curse is due.
Buccaneers over Chiefs - I'm not picking the Chiefs again this season. Realistically, how many games can the burn me on? Four, maybe?
Ravens over Cowboys - I'll trust the team that has been consistent, even if their play calling has been questionable. Maybe they run the ball a little this week.
Cardinals over Bills - Could have pick either team here and had no defense for either pick.
Patriots over Seahawks - It's about time the Seattle sports world got a solid gut punch again.
49ers over Giants - The Niners aren't garaunteed to go to the Super Bowl, but they are the only team in the NFC I have 100% confidence in at this point.
Vikings over Redskins - This is entirely a records-based decision. I could totally see RG3 going for 400 total yards and 5 scores.
Titans over Packers - We are about to see the Packers at 2-4. A great passing game only gets you 1/3 of the way there.
Broncos over Chargers - Manning (and his noodle arm) on a Monday night in nice weather? Sign me up.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 48-28
College Week 7
Louisville over Pittsburgh - If I'm wrong about this game, the Big East is Rutgers' to lose and will once again not get much respect from the polls.
Notre Dame over Stanford - I don't think I can pick against Mante Te'o and the Irish defense right now, at least until they lose. Te'o is playing like he had nothing to lose, and that's scary.
West Virginia over Texas Tech - They scored on Texas' defense, I seriously doubt there is a defense in the Big12 that can stop them.
Boise State over Fresno State - The Broncos aren't done yet, just cause they actually lost the "big game" opener this year doesn't mean they aren't the best non-BCS team. Although, Ohio has an agrument.
South Carolina over LSU - If Georgia can only score 7, I'd be surprised in LSU scored ANYTHING.
Mississippi State over Tennessee - I'm crossing my fingers that Tennessee is actually really bad, that way (maybe) Mizzou can win a road SEC game.
Texas over Oklahoma - Also crossing my fingers that Oklahoma is actually bad, but the easy part of the schedule is coming up.
USC over Washington - Probably the last chance for the Trojans to be in good BCS shape.
Michigan State over Iowa - First team to 10 wins.
Louisiana Tech over Texas A&M - Upset special, I would have felt a lot better about it if they had played it in week 1, though.
Last Week: 6-4 (37 pts), back to earth
Season: 38-22 (235 pts)
NFL Week
Steelers over Titans - It's about that time of the year for the Steelers to win 4-6 games under the radar.
Falcons over Raiders - My LOCK of the week, the Raiders playing at 10 AM Oakland time against a team that hasn't lost yet? LOCK it.
Bengals over Browns - They already played this game, I remember how it turned out.
Rams over Dolphins - This will probably come down to a game of kickers and the Rams have the best right now.
Colts over Jets - Expect to see Tebow in this game... that's not a good thing.
Eagles over Lions - Only because the Eagles are playing some great defense and the Madden curse is due.
Buccaneers over Chiefs - I'm not picking the Chiefs again this season. Realistically, how many games can the burn me on? Four, maybe?
Ravens over Cowboys - I'll trust the team that has been consistent, even if their play calling has been questionable. Maybe they run the ball a little this week.
Cardinals over Bills - Could have pick either team here and had no defense for either pick.
Patriots over Seahawks - It's about time the Seattle sports world got a solid gut punch again.
49ers over Giants - The Niners aren't garaunteed to go to the Super Bowl, but they are the only team in the NFC I have 100% confidence in at this point.
Vikings over Redskins - This is entirely a records-based decision. I could totally see RG3 going for 400 total yards and 5 scores.
Titans over Packers - We are about to see the Packers at 2-4. A great passing game only gets you 1/3 of the way there.
Broncos over Chargers - Manning (and his noodle arm) on a Monday night in nice weather? Sign me up.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 48-28
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
I'm Sorry, Is Baseball Finally Getting Exciting?
So today is the last day of the MLB season. Oakland and Texas are tied for the AL West, Baltimore can tie the Yankees in the AL East, the Braves could get bounced by the Cardinals on Friday (again) even after winning 93+ games, and the Royals might not lose 90 games. Will today be as exciting as last year's last day?
Well, that's enough non-football.
Last week I dedicated my blog and picks to my dad... and I went 22-3 (only the Lions, Cowboys, and Buccaneers let me down... which meant the Redskins, my dad's team, won... so even better). There is no way I can repeat last week's success, especially with this week's college slate, specifically the SEC games.
Before my picks, I'd like to give a little Mizzou analysis since I couldn't pick there game last week and I feel like everyone needs to know where I stand. We're 5 weeks into the first SEC season and they are 3-2 (0-2). Am I dissappointed? Not at all. Do I believe they could be better? Of course, but COULD is the operative word. The Tigers have been hampered by injuries to the o-line, erradic quarterback play, and terrible play calling. Injuries are something all teams have to deal with, they are not a good excuse. In Mizzou's case they have caused a shuffle... when your starting center is your backup left tackle and your backup right guard is your backup center and your right tackle is your backup to all the backups you can't have more than 1 injury to the line or you'll make yourself insane trying to make the depth chart each week. Well the Tigers have 3 injures to their top 5 lineman and the biggest problem is the center can provide the quarterback with a solid and accurate shotgun snap... a SERIOUS problem in an up-tempo-sticking-with-the-spread-or-die style like the Tigers'. The injuries have thrown a large wrench in the machine, if it's not fixed this week, it never will be. When the rumors started to surface about why Berkstresser started over Franklin against Arizona State (about 10 minutes before kickoff), my concern immediately shifted towards the locker-room psyche, not the play on the field. Berkstresser is more like Gabbert and Franklin is more like Daniel, either one is fine, neither are going to win championships. More importantly, the rumor was that Franklin had lost the support of his teammates because of his strong religious beliefs. After the game, with the assumption that Franklin would be cleared to play against South Carolina, the coaching staff needed to do one of two things: either stick the support behind Franklin and say that if he's healthy, he's playing, or give Berkstresser the keys to the car and let him loose. The trouble is, they didn't let Berkstresser do ANYTHING against Arizona State (hence the lack of offense), and no one thought that he could lead the team to any upsets down the road (which would mean a 5-7 season). So option 2 was a tough choice for a coaching staff that's been playing "not to lose" ever since they lost the '07 Big12 Championship game (remember, when they were #1 in the BCS). They took option 1 and Franklin has looked terrible ever since. I like James Franklin the person... I'm not a huge fan of James Franklin, starting quarterback of the Missouri Tigers. He's committed to his religion, his family, his girlfriend (star volleyball player Molly Kreklow) and his team... but he lacks passion, at least in the eyes of a fan. We never see him get pissed at his o-line for a bad snap or a missed block, his celebrations are muted and unselfish, and he's been nothing but polite and courteous to the media. He's bland. I would prefer my quarterback to have fire and confidence (like Chase Daniel) and the ability to scream at his teammates when the need motivating or correction. I don't get that from Franklin. Finally, it's very hard to win football games when your offensive coordinator can't help his quarterback improve. Mizzou has one 4th-and-short play, and everyone in the SEC knows it... they've gone from 4 halfbacks sharing the load to 1 feature back in 10 months...they finally have 3 receivers over 6'4" to stretch the field, and insist on throwing them screens and 2-yard outs. The Spread offense is the hardest to stop... when executed flawlessly. David Yost cannot be blamed for poor execution... but he could stop calling plays that his offense fails to execute. He could call more deep crossing routes, he could use the wide side of the field more, and he could throw out the script and let his speedy athletes loose. This week is a breaking point for Mizzou. Beat Vandy and they can play their style and gain some respect in the SEC the rest of the way finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Lose AT HOME to Vandy, and you can kiss the bowl game goodbye. Heck, you'd be lucky to win another game.
Sorry, on to the picks.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech - you can talk about the improved Tech defense until you're blue in the face. I won't believe it until they hold a ranked team to less than 200 yards and less than 20 points.
Stanford over Arizona - speaking of defenses Stanford needs to get there's in check soon.
Georgia over South Carolina - I've seen both teams against Mizzou, I have more faith in South Carolina's defense, but much more faith in Georgia's offense.
Michigan over Purdue - last chance for Michigan to convince us that Denard Robinson is a quarterback.
LSU over Florida - I have more faith in Florida's offense, but much more faith in LSU's defense.
Clemson over Georgia Tech - Tech is now running the triple option on defense too: let them run, let them pass, or let them score.
Ohio State over Nebraska - in the battle of teams that should have NEVER done alternate uniforms, I'm sticking with the slight hope that Ohio State finishs undefeated and stays home for the holidays.
Texas over West Virginia - first team to play defense against the Mountaineers should win
Auburn over Arkansas - why couldn't the SEC have figured out the new cross-divisional rivals thing before this season? Mizzou should be playing Arkansas this year instead of making their 3rd straight trip to A&M.
Penn State over Northwestern - If redemption exists, Penn State will win this game. If not, nothing is right in the Big Ten (Northwestern 6-0???)
Last Week: 10-0 (55 pts)
Season: 32-18 (198 pts)
Cardinals over Rams - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent gives me a compelling reason to think they can lose.
Bengals over Dolphins - the Bengals are dangerous. If Pittsburgh keeps losing, Cincy is in prime position to make the playoffs.
Packers over Colts - Andrew Luck, meet your better.
Ravens over Chiefs - I promise you, unless they are on a 3-game winning streak and are playing a team with at least 6 losses, I'm not picking the Chiefs. I wish I hadn't locked the Ravens last week.
Giants over Browns - speaking of teams I've already locked, could have really used the Giants this week.
Eagles over Steelers - the Eagles are the Bengals of the NFC, good enough to win enough games to slide into the playoffs.
Falcons over Redskins - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent scares me into thinking the streak could end.
Seahawks over Panthers - it's entirely possible that the NFC could be the Falcons and 10 decent teams between 9-7 and 7-9... the Seahawks are one of those 10.
Bears over Jaguars - this is my LOCK for the week. I will say there is an outside chance that the Bears could have a let down, but I bet Blaine Gabbert throws for less than 120 yards and at least 1 pick.
Vikings over Titans - the Vikings are probably another 9-7 or 7-9 team in the NFC.
Patriots over Broncos - Peyton Manning outdoors against the Patriots? You're kidding right?
49ers over Bills - either the 49ers or the Cardinals will be better than 9-7 the other will be in that group.
Chargers over Saints - if the Chargers win, expect my lock next week to be whomever they play.
Texans over Jets - zero points against the 49ers translates to less than 10 against the Texans.
Last Week: 12-3
Season: 39-24
Well, that's enough non-football.
Last week I dedicated my blog and picks to my dad... and I went 22-3 (only the Lions, Cowboys, and Buccaneers let me down... which meant the Redskins, my dad's team, won... so even better). There is no way I can repeat last week's success, especially with this week's college slate, specifically the SEC games.
Before my picks, I'd like to give a little Mizzou analysis since I couldn't pick there game last week and I feel like everyone needs to know where I stand. We're 5 weeks into the first SEC season and they are 3-2 (0-2). Am I dissappointed? Not at all. Do I believe they could be better? Of course, but COULD is the operative word. The Tigers have been hampered by injuries to the o-line, erradic quarterback play, and terrible play calling. Injuries are something all teams have to deal with, they are not a good excuse. In Mizzou's case they have caused a shuffle... when your starting center is your backup left tackle and your backup right guard is your backup center and your right tackle is your backup to all the backups you can't have more than 1 injury to the line or you'll make yourself insane trying to make the depth chart each week. Well the Tigers have 3 injures to their top 5 lineman and the biggest problem is the center can provide the quarterback with a solid and accurate shotgun snap... a SERIOUS problem in an up-tempo-sticking-with-the-spread-or-die style like the Tigers'. The injuries have thrown a large wrench in the machine, if it's not fixed this week, it never will be. When the rumors started to surface about why Berkstresser started over Franklin against Arizona State (about 10 minutes before kickoff), my concern immediately shifted towards the locker-room psyche, not the play on the field. Berkstresser is more like Gabbert and Franklin is more like Daniel, either one is fine, neither are going to win championships. More importantly, the rumor was that Franklin had lost the support of his teammates because of his strong religious beliefs. After the game, with the assumption that Franklin would be cleared to play against South Carolina, the coaching staff needed to do one of two things: either stick the support behind Franklin and say that if he's healthy, he's playing, or give Berkstresser the keys to the car and let him loose. The trouble is, they didn't let Berkstresser do ANYTHING against Arizona State (hence the lack of offense), and no one thought that he could lead the team to any upsets down the road (which would mean a 5-7 season). So option 2 was a tough choice for a coaching staff that's been playing "not to lose" ever since they lost the '07 Big12 Championship game (remember, when they were #1 in the BCS). They took option 1 and Franklin has looked terrible ever since. I like James Franklin the person... I'm not a huge fan of James Franklin, starting quarterback of the Missouri Tigers. He's committed to his religion, his family, his girlfriend (star volleyball player Molly Kreklow) and his team... but he lacks passion, at least in the eyes of a fan. We never see him get pissed at his o-line for a bad snap or a missed block, his celebrations are muted and unselfish, and he's been nothing but polite and courteous to the media. He's bland. I would prefer my quarterback to have fire and confidence (like Chase Daniel) and the ability to scream at his teammates when the need motivating or correction. I don't get that from Franklin. Finally, it's very hard to win football games when your offensive coordinator can't help his quarterback improve. Mizzou has one 4th-and-short play, and everyone in the SEC knows it... they've gone from 4 halfbacks sharing the load to 1 feature back in 10 months...they finally have 3 receivers over 6'4" to stretch the field, and insist on throwing them screens and 2-yard outs. The Spread offense is the hardest to stop... when executed flawlessly. David Yost cannot be blamed for poor execution... but he could stop calling plays that his offense fails to execute. He could call more deep crossing routes, he could use the wide side of the field more, and he could throw out the script and let his speedy athletes loose. This week is a breaking point for Mizzou. Beat Vandy and they can play their style and gain some respect in the SEC the rest of the way finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Lose AT HOME to Vandy, and you can kiss the bowl game goodbye. Heck, you'd be lucky to win another game.
Sorry, on to the picks.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech - you can talk about the improved Tech defense until you're blue in the face. I won't believe it until they hold a ranked team to less than 200 yards and less than 20 points.
Stanford over Arizona - speaking of defenses Stanford needs to get there's in check soon.
Georgia over South Carolina - I've seen both teams against Mizzou, I have more faith in South Carolina's defense, but much more faith in Georgia's offense.
Michigan over Purdue - last chance for Michigan to convince us that Denard Robinson is a quarterback.
LSU over Florida - I have more faith in Florida's offense, but much more faith in LSU's defense.
Clemson over Georgia Tech - Tech is now running the triple option on defense too: let them run, let them pass, or let them score.
Ohio State over Nebraska - in the battle of teams that should have NEVER done alternate uniforms, I'm sticking with the slight hope that Ohio State finishs undefeated and stays home for the holidays.
Texas over West Virginia - first team to play defense against the Mountaineers should win
Auburn over Arkansas - why couldn't the SEC have figured out the new cross-divisional rivals thing before this season? Mizzou should be playing Arkansas this year instead of making their 3rd straight trip to A&M.
Penn State over Northwestern - If redemption exists, Penn State will win this game. If not, nothing is right in the Big Ten (Northwestern 6-0???)
Last Week: 10-0 (55 pts)
Season: 32-18 (198 pts)
Cardinals over Rams - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent gives me a compelling reason to think they can lose.
Bengals over Dolphins - the Bengals are dangerous. If Pittsburgh keeps losing, Cincy is in prime position to make the playoffs.
Packers over Colts - Andrew Luck, meet your better.
Ravens over Chiefs - I promise you, unless they are on a 3-game winning streak and are playing a team with at least 6 losses, I'm not picking the Chiefs. I wish I hadn't locked the Ravens last week.
Giants over Browns - speaking of teams I've already locked, could have really used the Giants this week.
Eagles over Steelers - the Eagles are the Bengals of the NFC, good enough to win enough games to slide into the playoffs.
Falcons over Redskins - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent scares me into thinking the streak could end.
Seahawks over Panthers - it's entirely possible that the NFC could be the Falcons and 10 decent teams between 9-7 and 7-9... the Seahawks are one of those 10.
Bears over Jaguars - this is my LOCK for the week. I will say there is an outside chance that the Bears could have a let down, but I bet Blaine Gabbert throws for less than 120 yards and at least 1 pick.
Vikings over Titans - the Vikings are probably another 9-7 or 7-9 team in the NFC.
Patriots over Broncos - Peyton Manning outdoors against the Patriots? You're kidding right?
49ers over Bills - either the 49ers or the Cardinals will be better than 9-7 the other will be in that group.
Chargers over Saints - if the Chargers win, expect my lock next week to be whomever they play.
Texans over Jets - zero points against the 49ers translates to less than 10 against the Texans.
Last Week: 12-3
Season: 39-24
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Happy Birthday, Dad!
It's my dad's @#th birthday, so this post is in honor of him.
College Week 5
Florida State over South Florida - It will be interesting to see how good the 'Noles are when they actually play a defense. Not sure that will happen until a BCS game.
Ohio State over Michigan State - A defensive battle is expected in this game, so I'm taking the team that has looked much more "put together" on offense.
Clemson over Boston College - It would be like Clemson to have a let down game this week, but I think they've turned a corner as a program and probably won't lose another game all year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - I'm really hoping this is where Wisconsin turns it around and gets their act together, but the Huskers will be too fast on offense and without Monte Ball, the Badgers are weak.
Texas A&M over Arkansas - Also hoping this where Arkansas turns it around, but I really doubt that will happen this year.
Texas over Oklahoma State - The Cowboys' defense has been suspect lately... the Longhorns' has not been.
Arizona State over California - They've played very well at home, and sketchy on the road, but Cal has played sketchy everywhere.
West Virginia over Baylor - First one to 50 wins.
Penn State over Illinois - Some might think this is a soft upset pick, those people must respect Nathan Scheelhaase as a football player (I don't, because he played at Rockhurst and chose Illinois).
Cincinnati over Virginia Tech - Here's the real upset pick, the Hokies have not stopped the run like they used to and Cincy can run the ball with the best of them.
Last Week: 6-4 (39 pts)
Season: 22-18 (143 pts)
NFL Week 4
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on the controversy that is the quality of officiating the replacement referees are providing. You know something is wrong when it's the first topic of conversation the 4 nurses I work with wanted to discuss when I walked in Tuesday morning. Not that they are clueless about sports, but it's the first time I can recall any of them having anything to say about the NFL at all.
And that's why this won't be an easy fix. When we watch (or talk about, or tweet about, or call in to radio shows about) the NFL, they get money in some way, shape or form. It is a multi-billion dollar corporation, and the big wigs (the owners and their puppet Goddell) only care about the bottom line. If it makes money, great; if it loses money, absolutely not... even if the idea makes total sense and makes the fans happy. As long as people show up for games, watch them on TV, and buy NFL appearall the 1% of football society will win. And they won't change a thing.
Without losing the sport we all love, there is not much we can to protest or affect any change. I suggest we just hold on tight and wait for the ride to be over.
On a side note, I think it's absolutely hilarious how up in arms football fans are... but really, are we ever NOT complaining about officiating in football? I predict that when the real referees come back, there will just as many blown calls and complaining from the fans (maybe not as much mutual, non-biased complaints, but still).
As far as the specific play at the end of the Packers/Seahawks game, I'm just shaking my head. Since I don't really have a horse in that race, I wasn't particularly mad. I do think that the main problem was the missed pass interference call... I'm pretty sure I would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights when trying to make the right call on the catch... but I'd like to think I'd have thrown the flag on the Seahawks there. What I try to think about is how would I feel if I were a die-hard Seahawks fan? I'm sure I would be justifying all the nuiances of the rule book and skewing all my arguments to defend the touchdown call. But would I know deep down that I was wrong? Probably not.
Ravens over Browns - My LOCK of the week. What's the over/under on Weeden turnovers? Five?
Falcons over Panthers - This one is a case of pick the undefeated team if your not 100% sure of the upset.
Patriots over Bills - Anyone who thinks the Patriots are capable of going 1-3 should be institutionalized.
Lions over Vikings - I don't think they have the talent to pull off consecutive huge upsets, but the Vikings are scary. The Lions deserve to win an easy one eventually.
Chargers over Chiefs - HA! The Chiefs won the battle of attrition last week with SIX field goals. It's never good when you score 3 touchdowns and give up 1, but still lose. You can put as much optimistic spin on that game as you want. At no point did Cassel look like a quality QB, and the Chiefs defense benefitted from some ridiculous Saints play calling (9 passes in your last 9 plays when you just needed to run the clock out?????).
Rams over Seahawks - Here's my upset pick. Seahawk fans are on borrowed time until they lose.
49ers over Jets - Either the Vikings are going to look pretty good, or the Dolphins aren't going to look as bad.
Texans over Titans - Another case of picking the undefeated team because I can't find a good reason to pick against them.
Broncos over Raiders - It's awfully convenient that Denver plays their home division games early... less cold weather for Manning's fused neck.
Cardinals over Dolphins - Again, I can't go against the undefeated team, but I'm not so confident that they won't just fall apart here like they're gauranteed to down the road.
Bengals over Jaguars - Gabbert had less than 100 yards passing in a win last week (80% of it on one throw). His burnout in Jacksonville will be a bonfire.
Packers over Saints - I would hate to be the Saints right now. There is no way I'd want to play a pissed off Packers team (especially Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers). By the way, the loser of this game is probably out of the playoffs.
Buccaneers over Redskins - At some point there will be plenty of room on the RG3 bandwagon... I'm staying on but realistically understanding how limited the team is right now. (This was the toughest pick by the way)
Eagles over Giants - They did beat the Ravens.
Cowboys over Bears - The battle of the most overrated QBs (other than Matt Cassel) will go the way of which is less of a pussy.
Stat of Week 3: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Russell Westbrook have combined for 5 wins... Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have combined for 3 wins. Crazy, no?
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 27-21
College Week 5
Florida State over South Florida - It will be interesting to see how good the 'Noles are when they actually play a defense. Not sure that will happen until a BCS game.
Ohio State over Michigan State - A defensive battle is expected in this game, so I'm taking the team that has looked much more "put together" on offense.
Clemson over Boston College - It would be like Clemson to have a let down game this week, but I think they've turned a corner as a program and probably won't lose another game all year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - I'm really hoping this is where Wisconsin turns it around and gets their act together, but the Huskers will be too fast on offense and without Monte Ball, the Badgers are weak.
Texas A&M over Arkansas - Also hoping this where Arkansas turns it around, but I really doubt that will happen this year.
Texas over Oklahoma State - The Cowboys' defense has been suspect lately... the Longhorns' has not been.
Arizona State over California - They've played very well at home, and sketchy on the road, but Cal has played sketchy everywhere.
West Virginia over Baylor - First one to 50 wins.
Penn State over Illinois - Some might think this is a soft upset pick, those people must respect Nathan Scheelhaase as a football player (I don't, because he played at Rockhurst and chose Illinois).
Cincinnati over Virginia Tech - Here's the real upset pick, the Hokies have not stopped the run like they used to and Cincy can run the ball with the best of them.
Last Week: 6-4 (39 pts)
Season: 22-18 (143 pts)
NFL Week 4
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on the controversy that is the quality of officiating the replacement referees are providing. You know something is wrong when it's the first topic of conversation the 4 nurses I work with wanted to discuss when I walked in Tuesday morning. Not that they are clueless about sports, but it's the first time I can recall any of them having anything to say about the NFL at all.
And that's why this won't be an easy fix. When we watch (or talk about, or tweet about, or call in to radio shows about) the NFL, they get money in some way, shape or form. It is a multi-billion dollar corporation, and the big wigs (the owners and their puppet Goddell) only care about the bottom line. If it makes money, great; if it loses money, absolutely not... even if the idea makes total sense and makes the fans happy. As long as people show up for games, watch them on TV, and buy NFL appearall the 1% of football society will win. And they won't change a thing.
Without losing the sport we all love, there is not much we can to protest or affect any change. I suggest we just hold on tight and wait for the ride to be over.
On a side note, I think it's absolutely hilarious how up in arms football fans are... but really, are we ever NOT complaining about officiating in football? I predict that when the real referees come back, there will just as many blown calls and complaining from the fans (maybe not as much mutual, non-biased complaints, but still).
As far as the specific play at the end of the Packers/Seahawks game, I'm just shaking my head. Since I don't really have a horse in that race, I wasn't particularly mad. I do think that the main problem was the missed pass interference call... I'm pretty sure I would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights when trying to make the right call on the catch... but I'd like to think I'd have thrown the flag on the Seahawks there. What I try to think about is how would I feel if I were a die-hard Seahawks fan? I'm sure I would be justifying all the nuiances of the rule book and skewing all my arguments to defend the touchdown call. But would I know deep down that I was wrong? Probably not.
Ravens over Browns - My LOCK of the week. What's the over/under on Weeden turnovers? Five?
Falcons over Panthers - This one is a case of pick the undefeated team if your not 100% sure of the upset.
Patriots over Bills - Anyone who thinks the Patriots are capable of going 1-3 should be institutionalized.
Lions over Vikings - I don't think they have the talent to pull off consecutive huge upsets, but the Vikings are scary. The Lions deserve to win an easy one eventually.
Chargers over Chiefs - HA! The Chiefs won the battle of attrition last week with SIX field goals. It's never good when you score 3 touchdowns and give up 1, but still lose. You can put as much optimistic spin on that game as you want. At no point did Cassel look like a quality QB, and the Chiefs defense benefitted from some ridiculous Saints play calling (9 passes in your last 9 plays when you just needed to run the clock out?????).
Rams over Seahawks - Here's my upset pick. Seahawk fans are on borrowed time until they lose.
49ers over Jets - Either the Vikings are going to look pretty good, or the Dolphins aren't going to look as bad.
Texans over Titans - Another case of picking the undefeated team because I can't find a good reason to pick against them.
Broncos over Raiders - It's awfully convenient that Denver plays their home division games early... less cold weather for Manning's fused neck.
Cardinals over Dolphins - Again, I can't go against the undefeated team, but I'm not so confident that they won't just fall apart here like they're gauranteed to down the road.
Bengals over Jaguars - Gabbert had less than 100 yards passing in a win last week (80% of it on one throw). His burnout in Jacksonville will be a bonfire.
Packers over Saints - I would hate to be the Saints right now. There is no way I'd want to play a pissed off Packers team (especially Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers). By the way, the loser of this game is probably out of the playoffs.
Buccaneers over Redskins - At some point there will be plenty of room on the RG3 bandwagon... I'm staying on but realistically understanding how limited the team is right now. (This was the toughest pick by the way)
Eagles over Giants - They did beat the Ravens.
Cowboys over Bears - The battle of the most overrated QBs (other than Matt Cassel) will go the way of which is less of a pussy.
Stat of Week 3: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Russell Westbrook have combined for 5 wins... Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have combined for 3 wins. Crazy, no?
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 27-21
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Hey, It's Wednesday! Need Some Football?
I was so oversaturated with college football after Saturday's crazy day, that I didn't watch ANY NFL games on Sunday. All the professional footbal I saw this weekend was the first two drives of the Denver/Atlanta game. Needless to say, I'm going to push through and continue to bring you strong and sometimes silly analysis.
College Week 4
Undeafeted Teams that are For Real:
Georgia - it's entirely possible that they could go undefeated, with no LSU or 'Bama on their schedule. Take it from someone who saw them in person... the defense is smart and deep and if the offense cleans up the silly penalties (like 6 false starts against Mizzou) they will eventually wear you down.
Florida State - while they haven't faced a quality opponent, they've been getting done with execution not luck. Get by Clemson and they could cruise to the BCS.
Ohio (as For Real as a MAC team can get) - they should go undefeated; which I hope will lead to a BCS at-large, but they might not make it above #15. I just know I wouldn't want to play them.
Undefeated Teams that are Kidding Themselves:
Stanford - the upset of USC was great, but it was at home, and USC is not deep, and USC loses a September Pac12 game every year. The offense can succeed and the defense made some great adjustments, but I forsee a loss or three (Oregon, maybe Cal and Washington).
Florida - unless they start leading games at halftime. Comeback wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee are not things you put on a resume, even if they're on the road.
UCLA - yes, they beat Nebraska, but we all know how fake the BigTen is now. They gave up a ton of points and yards to Rice, I can't trust them until they are in the Pac12 title game again.
Winless Teams that I'm Loving See Lose:
Colorado - life after the Big12 is going quite poorly, wouldn't you say?
Wyoming - still mad Dave Christiansen left Mizzou with Dave Yost as offensive coordinator. Katie will tell you that Yost gets more of my jeers than any other Mizzou player.
Houston - only because they might be the first team to go from 13-1 to 0-12 in less than 12 months.
Picks:
Georgia over Vanderbilt - for the aforementioned reason that the Dawgs are "For Real"
Florida State over Clemson - ditto, and because it's Clemson on national TV is never good.
Wake Forest over Army - might be the greatest turnaround in one week ever... from losing by 50+ to winning by 50+
Michigan over Notre Dame - the reason why I didn't mention the Irish in either section above is because of their schedule. This game, plus UNC, USC, Stanford... no idea if they are going to be 10-2 or 4-8 (and there is no way they hold Michigan to less than 21 points)
Minnesota over Syracuse - raise your hand if you care about this game in any way
Rutgers over Arkansas - I was tempted to lean with Arkansas because they might rally around the "controversy" of their QB's comments, but Rutgers' defense has been (fantasy points-wise) on par with Alabama.
Connecticut over Western Michigan - the directional-Michigan teams are struggling this year
UCLA over Oregon State - not much data to work with for the Beavers, and Wisconsin is looking like the biggest disappointment so far.
Georgia Tech over Miami-FL - k-State ran all over the Canes... guess what Georgia Tech LOVES to do?
South Carolina over Missouri - so, I make this pick against my boys (with the least amount of confidence) on one condition: the rumor that James Franklin missed the Arizona State game because his shoulder pain was too much and he refused a pain-killer injection for religious reasons has become more factual as the days progress. More importantly, the rumor has it that Franklin no longer has the full support of the locker room (some coaches, some prominent players). If this is true, and he starts against the Gamecocks, this is bad. If it's not true, and he starts, they have a shot. If he doesn't start and Yost limits the playbook for Berkstresser again, they are cooked. If he doesn't start, and Berkstresser can unleash his arm, they might win.
Last Week: 6-4 (42 pts.)
Season: 16-14 (104 pts.)
NFL Week 3
Not enough data for me to do any analysis. I'm not trying to fill 8 hours of programming with NFL analysis like some networks, so I make no promises until week 6 or so.
Picks:
Giants over Panthers - still putting faith in the Giants' defense for now
Bears over Rams - I actually tossed around the upset pick for a while, this is the Rams chance to be relevant, either way
Bills over Browns - thoroughly enjoying the Brandon Weeden disaster/era in Cleveland so far
Cowboys over Buccaneers - I may never fully trust Tony Romo as a starting QB, but it's even harder to trust Josh Freeman
Lions over Titans - they struggled through two games against the NFC West, but this is the Jake Locker-led Titans we're talking about
Colts over Jaguars - it is not hard for me to say "go with the better QB" for this game... Luck is MUCH better than Gabbert
Jets over Dolphins - thoroughly enjoying the Ryan Tannehill disaster/era in Miami so far
49ers over Vikings - the Niners are halfway through demolishing the NFC North
Saints over Chiefs - really? I'm pretty sure 0-16 is a possibility as long as Cassel is playing
Bengals over Redskins - either the Rams offense is better than the Saints offense, or RG3 has been figured out, I'm going with the latter
Cardinals over Eagles - Kevin Kolb has much to prove in this game, if the over/under for TOs in this game is less than 6, take the over
Falcons over Chargers - with as many seniors as Mizzou has on defense this year, it might be possible for the Falcons to draft all of them and just turn thier defense into a pro-Tigers team
Texans over Broncos - I'm still 6 wins away from believing in Manning's new neck (although it's holding up nicely in all his new commercials)
Steelers over Raiders - I'm quietly hoping that the Raiders are actually worse than the Chiefs
Ravens over Patriots - strong possibility the Pats will be 1-2... maybe the Mayans were right
Packers over Seahawks - the Seahawks are a more likely 1-2 team
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 17-15
College Week 4
Undeafeted Teams that are For Real:
Georgia - it's entirely possible that they could go undefeated, with no LSU or 'Bama on their schedule. Take it from someone who saw them in person... the defense is smart and deep and if the offense cleans up the silly penalties (like 6 false starts against Mizzou) they will eventually wear you down.
Florida State - while they haven't faced a quality opponent, they've been getting done with execution not luck. Get by Clemson and they could cruise to the BCS.
Ohio (as For Real as a MAC team can get) - they should go undefeated; which I hope will lead to a BCS at-large, but they might not make it above #15. I just know I wouldn't want to play them.
Undefeated Teams that are Kidding Themselves:
Stanford - the upset of USC was great, but it was at home, and USC is not deep, and USC loses a September Pac12 game every year. The offense can succeed and the defense made some great adjustments, but I forsee a loss or three (Oregon, maybe Cal and Washington).
Florida - unless they start leading games at halftime. Comeback wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee are not things you put on a resume, even if they're on the road.
UCLA - yes, they beat Nebraska, but we all know how fake the BigTen is now. They gave up a ton of points and yards to Rice, I can't trust them until they are in the Pac12 title game again.
Winless Teams that I'm Loving See Lose:
Colorado - life after the Big12 is going quite poorly, wouldn't you say?
Wyoming - still mad Dave Christiansen left Mizzou with Dave Yost as offensive coordinator. Katie will tell you that Yost gets more of my jeers than any other Mizzou player.
Houston - only because they might be the first team to go from 13-1 to 0-12 in less than 12 months.
Picks:
Georgia over Vanderbilt - for the aforementioned reason that the Dawgs are "For Real"
Florida State over Clemson - ditto, and because it's Clemson on national TV is never good.
Wake Forest over Army - might be the greatest turnaround in one week ever... from losing by 50+ to winning by 50+
Michigan over Notre Dame - the reason why I didn't mention the Irish in either section above is because of their schedule. This game, plus UNC, USC, Stanford... no idea if they are going to be 10-2 or 4-8 (and there is no way they hold Michigan to less than 21 points)
Minnesota over Syracuse - raise your hand if you care about this game in any way
Rutgers over Arkansas - I was tempted to lean with Arkansas because they might rally around the "controversy" of their QB's comments, but Rutgers' defense has been (fantasy points-wise) on par with Alabama.
Connecticut over Western Michigan - the directional-Michigan teams are struggling this year
UCLA over Oregon State - not much data to work with for the Beavers, and Wisconsin is looking like the biggest disappointment so far.
Georgia Tech over Miami-FL - k-State ran all over the Canes... guess what Georgia Tech LOVES to do?
South Carolina over Missouri - so, I make this pick against my boys (with the least amount of confidence) on one condition: the rumor that James Franklin missed the Arizona State game because his shoulder pain was too much and he refused a pain-killer injection for religious reasons has become more factual as the days progress. More importantly, the rumor has it that Franklin no longer has the full support of the locker room (some coaches, some prominent players). If this is true, and he starts against the Gamecocks, this is bad. If it's not true, and he starts, they have a shot. If he doesn't start and Yost limits the playbook for Berkstresser again, they are cooked. If he doesn't start, and Berkstresser can unleash his arm, they might win.
Last Week: 6-4 (42 pts.)
Season: 16-14 (104 pts.)
NFL Week 3
Not enough data for me to do any analysis. I'm not trying to fill 8 hours of programming with NFL analysis like some networks, so I make no promises until week 6 or so.
Picks:
Giants over Panthers - still putting faith in the Giants' defense for now
Bears over Rams - I actually tossed around the upset pick for a while, this is the Rams chance to be relevant, either way
Bills over Browns - thoroughly enjoying the Brandon Weeden disaster/era in Cleveland so far
Cowboys over Buccaneers - I may never fully trust Tony Romo as a starting QB, but it's even harder to trust Josh Freeman
Lions over Titans - they struggled through two games against the NFC West, but this is the Jake Locker-led Titans we're talking about
Colts over Jaguars - it is not hard for me to say "go with the better QB" for this game... Luck is MUCH better than Gabbert
Jets over Dolphins - thoroughly enjoying the Ryan Tannehill disaster/era in Miami so far
49ers over Vikings - the Niners are halfway through demolishing the NFC North
Saints over Chiefs - really? I'm pretty sure 0-16 is a possibility as long as Cassel is playing
Bengals over Redskins - either the Rams offense is better than the Saints offense, or RG3 has been figured out, I'm going with the latter
Cardinals over Eagles - Kevin Kolb has much to prove in this game, if the over/under for TOs in this game is less than 6, take the over
Falcons over Chargers - with as many seniors as Mizzou has on defense this year, it might be possible for the Falcons to draft all of them and just turn thier defense into a pro-Tigers team
Texans over Broncos - I'm still 6 wins away from believing in Manning's new neck (although it's holding up nicely in all his new commercials)
Steelers over Raiders - I'm quietly hoping that the Raiders are actually worse than the Chiefs
Ravens over Patriots - strong possibility the Pats will be 1-2... maybe the Mayans were right
Packers over Seahawks - the Seahawks are a more likely 1-2 team
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 17-15
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Football Wednesdays Week 2
Well my first 4-day, 4-sport weekend extravaganza did not go well. Thursday night softball team lost 14-13 after beginning the bottom of the 7th up 13-8 (I also struck out, which always sucks). Friday night kickball got rained out. The Tigers lost to Georgia and then the Chiefs lost to the Falcons.
College Week 2 Wrap-Up
The Unexpected:
The Pac12 (excluding Colorado) - Oregon State over Wisconsin, UCLA over Nebraska, Arizona State over Illinois, Arizona over Oklahoma State... now if only they won't beat up on each other and end up with like seven solid 7-5 teams.
Louisiana - LSU dominated Washington, UL-Lafayette is 2-0, and UL-Monroe pulled off the upset of the year (so far) by beating Arkansas. The Warhawks are going to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt.
The Expected:
Rice over Kansas - If ESPN had given me the chance to pick this game I would have called it. Sure, it's Kansas and I'll always pick against them... but Rice scored a bunch in a loss to UCLA in Week 1 and Kansas was (as I said) unimpressive against South Dakota State.
Mizzou - Yes, I picked them, but that was to show them some confidence. Would I have rather watched Georgia control the game, lead by 7+ the whole way, and never give the crowd any hope? NO. But it was quite predictable (and frustrating) to watch the Tigers lose because they didn't execute, got tired, and stopped playing with urgency. Also, as usual, Pinkel and Yost got out-coached in the second half when their players were ready to pull off the upset (see every loss to a top-10 team over the last 5 years).
The Picks:
Alabama over Arkansas - worst case scenario for a team that is reeling from a huge upset: playing the defending champs who appear to have a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State over California - we'll have to see how BigTen play goes, but pretty strong offensive start for the Buckeyes, now they play a team with very low expectations after two weeks.
Florida over Tennessee - not buying the hype, while Florida's win was over a team making a career out of blowing 2nd-half leads, they are the better team.
Missouri over Arizona State - this is a must win, rebound from a deflating loss and get some momentum for the most important game of the season (at South Carolina).
Texas over Mississippi - not too sure if Texas has rebounded yet, if they beat Oklahoma, then we'll talk.
Michigan State over Notre Dame - dominant defense will win this game, the over/under has to be less than 25.
BYU over Utah - the Holy War is always a great game.
USC over Stanford - not going to pick against the Trojans for a long time.
Louisville over North Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater could be just like Brad Smith.
Navy over Penn State - not going to pick Penn State for along time.
Last Week: 4-6 (28 pts.)
Season: 10-10 (62 pts.)
NFL Picks: (It's too early and I saw exactly 1 minute of NFL games this weekend)
Packers over Bears - Rodgers will draw Cutler into a gunslinger battle and guess who's winning that one.
Bills over Chiefs - I might not pick the Chiefs again this year.
Bengals over Browns - the Browns need to stop trying to draft a quarterback and get one in free agency, forget spending the money, use it on the role players.
Vikings over Colts - we are not far from the Colts becoming a dangerous team.
Raiders over Dolphins - we are quite far from Tannehill becoming a dangerous quarterback.
Patriots over Cardinals - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between convincing-ness of wins?
Giants over Buccaneers - my Eliminator pick of the week.
Ravens over Eagles - you beat the Browns by 1??
Saints over Panthers - which is worse, being upset by Tampa or Washington?
Texans over Jaguars - I predict Blaine Gabbert will be out of Jacksonville by season's end.
Redskins over Rams - RG3 is two more games like last week away from drawing me into the hype.
Cowboys over Seahawks - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between how their fanbases are feeling right now?
Steelers over Jets - were the Jets playing rope-a-dope during the preseason? NAH.
Chargers over Titans - we are still four months away from the Chargers letting their fans down by exiting the playoffs early.
49ers over Lions - recognize: one team was well prepared and beat a strong opponent convincingly, the other needed a late drive to survive one of the league's weakest teams.
Falcons over Broncos - still not picking Manning for a few more weeks.
Last Week: 8-8
College Week 2 Wrap-Up
The Unexpected:
The Pac12 (excluding Colorado) - Oregon State over Wisconsin, UCLA over Nebraska, Arizona State over Illinois, Arizona over Oklahoma State... now if only they won't beat up on each other and end up with like seven solid 7-5 teams.
Louisiana - LSU dominated Washington, UL-Lafayette is 2-0, and UL-Monroe pulled off the upset of the year (so far) by beating Arkansas. The Warhawks are going to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt.
The Expected:
Rice over Kansas - If ESPN had given me the chance to pick this game I would have called it. Sure, it's Kansas and I'll always pick against them... but Rice scored a bunch in a loss to UCLA in Week 1 and Kansas was (as I said) unimpressive against South Dakota State.
Mizzou - Yes, I picked them, but that was to show them some confidence. Would I have rather watched Georgia control the game, lead by 7+ the whole way, and never give the crowd any hope? NO. But it was quite predictable (and frustrating) to watch the Tigers lose because they didn't execute, got tired, and stopped playing with urgency. Also, as usual, Pinkel and Yost got out-coached in the second half when their players were ready to pull off the upset (see every loss to a top-10 team over the last 5 years).
The Picks:
Alabama over Arkansas - worst case scenario for a team that is reeling from a huge upset: playing the defending champs who appear to have a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State over California - we'll have to see how BigTen play goes, but pretty strong offensive start for the Buckeyes, now they play a team with very low expectations after two weeks.
Florida over Tennessee - not buying the hype, while Florida's win was over a team making a career out of blowing 2nd-half leads, they are the better team.
Missouri over Arizona State - this is a must win, rebound from a deflating loss and get some momentum for the most important game of the season (at South Carolina).
Texas over Mississippi - not too sure if Texas has rebounded yet, if they beat Oklahoma, then we'll talk.
Michigan State over Notre Dame - dominant defense will win this game, the over/under has to be less than 25.
BYU over Utah - the Holy War is always a great game.
USC over Stanford - not going to pick against the Trojans for a long time.
Louisville over North Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater could be just like Brad Smith.
Navy over Penn State - not going to pick Penn State for along time.
Last Week: 4-6 (28 pts.)
Season: 10-10 (62 pts.)
NFL Picks: (It's too early and I saw exactly 1 minute of NFL games this weekend)
Packers over Bears - Rodgers will draw Cutler into a gunslinger battle and guess who's winning that one.
Bills over Chiefs - I might not pick the Chiefs again this year.
Bengals over Browns - the Browns need to stop trying to draft a quarterback and get one in free agency, forget spending the money, use it on the role players.
Vikings over Colts - we are not far from the Colts becoming a dangerous team.
Raiders over Dolphins - we are quite far from Tannehill becoming a dangerous quarterback.
Patriots over Cardinals - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between convincing-ness of wins?
Giants over Buccaneers - my Eliminator pick of the week.
Ravens over Eagles - you beat the Browns by 1??
Saints over Panthers - which is worse, being upset by Tampa or Washington?
Texans over Jaguars - I predict Blaine Gabbert will be out of Jacksonville by season's end.
Redskins over Rams - RG3 is two more games like last week away from drawing me into the hype.
Cowboys over Seahawks - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between how their fanbases are feeling right now?
Steelers over Jets - were the Jets playing rope-a-dope during the preseason? NAH.
Chargers over Titans - we are still four months away from the Chargers letting their fans down by exiting the playoffs early.
49ers over Lions - recognize: one team was well prepared and beat a strong opponent convincingly, the other needed a late drive to survive one of the league's weakest teams.
Falcons over Broncos - still not picking Manning for a few more weeks.
Last Week: 8-8
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)