College Football '09 Preview

The always long-awaited college football season begins tonight, so here are my thoughts on the upcoming season.
I whole-heartedly agree with most of the pundits about the situation at Michigan. To assume that a top-tier program can maintain an expected level of competitiveness (or in this case return to a ridiculously high level of expectations) on only 20 hours of practice/training/film study is insane. Many hours of voluntary work are necessary and the crux of the situation falls on the student-athlete's interpretation of a coach's discussion of "voluntary workouts."
I'm a propent of the idea that it takes a new coach 3 years to do his job to the best of his abilities. He needs time to adjust coaching staff and fill the roster with his recruits... and then you have to factor in injuries, academic performance, and off-field problems of star players. Look at what has happened to Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Syracuse and UCLA. Once-great programs falling to mediocrity (or worse) for multiple reasons. It boggles the mind, but shows the well-knowledged followers how difficult it can be to succeed.
That being said, here are my best guesses for the conferences (not broken up by division).
ACC - Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, UNC, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia. I anticipate the option continuing to boggle the minds of defensive coordinators throughout the ACC as the Yellow Jackets put themselves on the fringe of the National Championship picture.
BigTen - Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue. Penn State has the best quarterback, Minnesota the best receiver, Iowa the best o-line, Ohio State the best defense... expect a close race with each of the top 5 teams getting 2 or 3 losses.
Big12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State. I don't buy the rebuilding hype coming out of Colorado, K-State or A&M, but I do buy the Baylor hype. Kansas will have 4 conference loses, Texas beats OU, Missouri beats Nebraska but not OSU or Texas, and Oklahoma is shutout of the BCS for the first time in years.
Big East - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse. WVU and UConn take a step back, Pitt a step up, South Florida can't make it over the hump, Syracuse 2 years away from returning.
C-USA - Houston, East Carolina, UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF, UAB, Tulane, SMU. Can someone tell me why June Jones left Hawaii for the dead-in-the-water program at SMU? Houston's offense will set many records (HINT: dark-horse BCS team).
MAC - Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State, Toledo, Akron, Kent State, Temple, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH). I really know nothing about this conference other that Buffalo played well last year, CMU has a great quarterback, WMU a great running game, and nothing else.
Pac-10 - USC, Oregon, California, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Arizona State, Washington State. Don't see a chink in USC's armor other than the freshman quarterback, but gotta love the defense. Look out for Arizona to challenge.
SEC - Florida, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Miss State, Kentucky, Tennessee. Everyone says Florida has what it takes to repeat, if they mean as SEC Champs, then I agree; most SEC fans will welcome Tennessee at the bottom of the conference; Ole Miss is slightly overrated and LSU slightly underrated.
SunBelt - Troy, FAU, Arkansas State, Mid Ten State, FIU, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe. Call me crazy, but I think Troy is this year's Ball State, WKU will start to emerge as a quality team, and the ULs will go virtually winless.
Mountain West - TCU, BYU, Utah, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. With their defense, TCU could go undefeated; if BYU beats Oklahoma, which they could, they could go undefeated; Utah could do it again.
WAC - Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Utah State. Boise State is the trendy dark horse, but they will lose to either Oregon or Nevada, or both; Nevada is going to be a tough out; Fresno State is will be typical.
Independents - Notre Dame, Navy, Army. All I can say is Notre Dame and Navy will be competitive, not BCS competitive, just competitive.

So my BCS Top 10 would look like this: Texas, USC, Penn State, Florida, TCU, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Houston.
My money is on Texas this year, but it should be a fun season.