So the 2011 NBA Finals start tonight… five years ago pundits were touting this match-up as one of the worst ever (both in quality of teams and ratings possibilities), now the same match-up is carrying much more hype. Why?
Reason #1: LeBron James and The Decision.
Reason #2: The teams were much more successful this year and this is arguably the 5th, 6th, or 7th best match-up. (I’d say, Bulls-Lakers, Heat-Lakers, Celtics-Lakers, Heat-Thunder, Heat-Spurs, and Celtics-Spurs are the only bigger match-ups)
Reason #3: It’s a rematch.
Essentially, if it wasn’t for the dump LeBron took on Cleveland last summer, no one would really care about whether the Heat succeed or fail. Now, it’s a polarizing issue. People are either Heat fans or Maverick fans (note: I think I’m settling in as a Heat fan).
So, to add to the hype even more, here are my keys to the series (in reverse order of importance):
Key #1: The interior presence of the Heat frontcourt.
Most will probably say that the Thunder lost in the last round because their inexperience lead to them not being able to close Games 4 and 5. The honest truth is that they got outplayed inside. No offense to Nick Collison; but when he’s your crunch-time defensive option on Nowitzki, you’re in trouble. Ibaka and Perkins were non-factors, which can’t happen. Bosh, Haslem, Anthony, Jones, and Ilgalskus need to play big. Seriously, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Heywood aren’t chopped liver, but they aren’t championship centers either. Which brings me to…
Key #2: How will the Heat defend Nowitzki?
There are several possibilities, and none of which is going to work for a whole series. They could cover him straight up with their regular rotation (Bosh or his sub). They could stick Joel Anthony on him as much as possible. They could tether him to Ilgalskus and have Big Z sit on the bench all game. Or they could throw LeBron at him and see what happens. Ideally, I think they’ll throw the kitchen sink at him, change it up almost every possession and bring in gimmick line-ups like they did against Chicago. One problem, if they go big, Terry or Kidd will eat Mike Miller alive.
Key #3: How will the Mavericks defend LeBron?
Simple. It will hinge entirely on how much they want to play Stojakovic, especially if the Heat go big. Marion and Stevenson will have their hands full, but I believe they are capable of holding LeBron and Wade to 35 combined, which is respectable.
Key #4: The overall play of Chris Bosh (and to a lesser extent, Wade).
This one is also simple. The Mavericks may find a way to defend LeBron (or hold him under 20 points), but if the Big 3 go for 75+ combined, they can’t win. Bosh has been big in several games and Wade has upped his game in the clutch. As good as Nowitzki’s fade-away is, it won’t help him defend Bosh away from the paint. It’s a match-up that the Heat have to try to exploit.
My prediction… home team wins every game… Heat in seven.
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