NFL 15 and Bowl Game Picks

NFL Week 15 Picks
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73

Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.

Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl  - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.

It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.