With apologies to the NFL Draft (possible blog after it's all said and done), I'd like to run through my thoughts and prediction for the NBA Playoffs, also known as "Can Anyone Stop the Heat?"
I know the first round has already started and predicting the results at this point isn't exactly going out on a limb, but hear me out. It's also not a stretch to just pick the Heat to win it all, but what I'm presenting is more of a blueprint for how they might get beat.
After the first games of each series, when all the home teams won and certain "sure things" were "no shows" (Steph Curry, Chicago's defense, James Harden, Memphis's defense), a lot of people were thinking there wouldn't be any Game 7s (maybe no Game 6s either). Well, now it seems as if the series that were going to be tight are close and nothing looks out of place (except for the lack of Kobe Bryant). Here is my breakdown of each series... I promise to have Round 2 ready before it starts.
Miami over Milwaukee in 4
Anything less that a sweep would be a disappointment. The Bucks are the only playoff team under .500 (happens every year with the 8 seed in the East) and the can't match up with Miami. It's a "pick your poison" for them. They can keep their defensive wings out on the floor to ATTEMPT to contain LeBron and Wade, or they can go small and ATTEMPT to out-score the Heat. I could see Ellis, Jennings and Reddick heating up in Game 4 to steal one, but do you think LeBron will let that happen?
Knicks over Celtics in 5
Before the series started my gut would have said Celtics in 7, but they have not looked strong on offense yet. They are seriously missing Rondo (and Ray Allen for that matter). They may be strong on defense without him, but without him they rely too heavily on Pierce and Green, and those two are going to be working hard on the other end against Carmelo. Between how NY plays defense and how Carmelo and Smith can break your back on the other end, the Celtics are sunk. Now that it's 2-0 for the Knicks, expect the Celtics to get Game 3 in the Garden and the Knicks to close it out in MSG.
Pacers over Hawks in 5
When the best defensive team in the league finds an offensive rhythm, and they are facing a team that dumped it's biggest offensive threat to Brooklyn, I'm tempted to call for a sweep. I can't do that, it's too much of a jinx. Plus, it will be good for the Pacers to lose Game 4 in Atlanta so they can get a bad loss out of their system and win Game 1 in MSG (because if they sweep the Hawks, expect the Knicks to destroy them in Game 1... the Pacers will be too overconfident... think Kentucky after losing the meaningless SEC Championship in 2012).
Bulls over Nets in 7
The way Chicago played last night, you might think they can win in 5, but I think Brooklyn wins Games 5 & 6 on sheer offensive willpower. Defense wins you championships, but offense makes it easier on the defense. I don't expect the Bulls to have another offensively strong game like last night until Game 7. Maybe they win Game 4 and Noah sits Game 5, something strange will happen, I'm sure. They can't play THAT well on both ends for 2 more games, but they'll wear down the weak Nets eventually.
Thunder over Rockets in 4
There is a reason OKC let Harden go so easily... some day we'll know. It's not all about money. I think it's because they'd rather have Sefalosha's defense and they can use unselfish role players (Martin and Fisher) to pick up the offensive slack. Think about it: the Thunder can defend you at 3 positions better than most teams (outside of the Pacers) with Perkins, Ibaka and Sefalosha. Then they can find a way to go small and Durant is still an above-average defender and you'll probably decided to go small so that you aren't using a 4 to defend him. Sure, Harden allows you to sit Westbrook and Durant for short periods together (if absolutely necessary), but he doesn't defend elite guards well at all. I'd rather have Sefalosha to guard Kobe (if he were healthy), Paul, Ginobili/Leonard, and Curry/Thompson. Houston can't keep up with OKC.
Spurs over Lakers in 4
How strange is this? It was widely discussed that the Spurs were "tanking" so they could avoid a 1 v. 8 series with the Lakers... then the Lakers caught fire, the Rockets faded, and here we are: a Spurs/Lakers 2 v. 7 series. The Spurs TOTALLY LUCKED OUT when Kobe got hurt. They haven't played very well and are still up 2-0. If Gasol or Howard wants to be considered an elite franchise player, they'll lead the Lakers to a win or two and salvage respectability. If they really want to stick it to Kobe "I'll Throw Anyone Under the Bus if it Suits Me" Bryant, they'd win the series... but that would take a tremendous effort (and the Spurs won't let that happen).
Nuggets over Warriors in 7
You like offensive? Stay glued to this series. Have a hard time with bright blue and yellow colors? Avoid this series (also, avoid it if you love defense). The winner of this series gets to attempt to prove youth/athleticism can beat experience/intelligence against the Spurs. I love the odds for either team. I'm taking the Nuggets here unless they can't steal one in Oakland. If the Warriors go up 3-1? They'll win in 6. Unfortunately, David Lee is too vital for Golden State inside. Missing his presence puts a ton of pressure on the Warriors interior (not that he'a great defender or Denver has a strong inside offense, just his presence). This will wear down the Warrior bench and Curry has another bad game in him, watch.
Grizzlies over Clippers in 7
Finally, Memphis went inside and used their strength against LA's weakness. Unless Paul figures out how to score 25 every game and Griffin figures out how to keep Z-Bo from getting 20 rebounds and 10 put-backs every game, I don't see them pulling it out. Plus, the Clippers lack coaching... they can't win if the crunch-time stratedgy is "give the ball to Chris every time," especially if Tony Allen is guarding him.
Current Picks for the Rest of the Playoffs:
Heat over Bulls in 5
Pacers over Knicks in 7
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Spurs over Nuggets in 6
Heat over Pacers in 6
Thunder over Spurs in 6
Heat over Thunder in 5
How the remaining teams can keep that from happening:
In all seriousness, the Heat are beatable. The Bulls could bully them around until a fight breaks out and LeBron and Wade both get 4 game suspensions. The Knicks can get 30 from Carmelo for 6 straight games and play Chandler and Martin at the same time to keep LeBron and Wade from getting easy inside baskets, forcing outside shots and maybe they miss a lot of them (plus JR Smith has to go ape-shit). The Pacers could get George AND Hibbert to average triple-doubles and also hope the Heat go cold from the outside. Memphis has the defense to beat the Heat in 7, they'd have to get there first AND have Z-Bo turn in a Hall-of-Fame series (bullying Bosh into submission). Chris Paul could go bananas in pursuit of his first title, but he'd need the rest of the Clippers to turn in defensive performances they've never produced before. The Spurs could win by frustrating Miami with near-perfect, intelligent offense and frustrating "old-man" defense. Finally, the Thunder have the offensive horses to keep pace and the defensive talent/strength to do the job... but everything has to go perfectly.
That's the problem.
- LeBron is the best player. The other team would need to have AT LEAST one guy play better than LeBron, not just in scoring, but ACROSS THE BOARD (Durant and Carmelo really the only capable ones).
- The other team's rotation defense would HAVE to be perfect AND the all the Heat's spot-up shooters would have to go ice cold (and they have Ray Allen, the best 3-point shooter EVER).
- The other team needs a post game that could take over games and slow the pace (Memphis and San Antonio are capable) AND that team would need the confidence to stick with a big line-up when the Heat go with LeBron at the 4 (which would be hard for Memphis/SA because that means Z-Bo/Duncan has to guard LeBron or someone smaller).
- The other team's offense would have to be so efficient that it limited the Heat to so few transition opportunities that they couldn't go on any devastating runs (OKC could, but the like to play fast too... SA, NY and Indiana would be the most successful).
- The other team would have to win the rebounding edge (specifically on offense) by such a wide margin that even the casual fan would notice (OKC, SA, NY, Indiana can Chicago could if they avoided going small... because a LeBron/Anderson tandem out-rebounds any other "small" frontcourt).
FINALLY, all this would have to happen for 4 games out of 7, including at least once IN MIAMI... I could see OKC, SA or NY doing that for 6 of 10 or 7 of 13... but to have the horses in the barn and the stratedy on the court all at the same time to make up for whatever insane damage LeBron is doing is HIGHLY unlikely.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
It Was in the Cards
You may have caught my comment about this year being the most entertaining Final Four in recent memory. I may be wrong about that because I can't say I've watched every minute of the last several Final Fours... especially last year because kansas was in it.
But here's how I know I'm a good sports fan:
I will always cheer for the following teams no matter what the situation (barring a gun to my head): Chiefs for NFL, Royals for MLB, Pacers for NBA (or the Kings if they ever get better), Missouri for college sports, and USA for international sports.
I will always cheer against the following teams no matter what the situation: Raiders, Yankees, Lakers, kansas, and France.
But if I'm watching a game that does not involve one of those teams, I tend to have a heirarchy of "fandom" and always find myself cheering for one team over another. The pro teams are pretty cut-and-dry, as you can see:
NFL (bottom up)
Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Chargers, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Texans, Vikings, Lions, Saints, Jaguars, Colts, Bengals, Redskins, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Bills, Panthers, Chiefs.
MLB
Yankees, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mariners, Angles, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Royals.
NBA
Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Bobcats, Wizards, Cavaliers, Bucks, Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks, Blazers, Timberwolves, Magic, Pistons, Raptors, Sixers, Suns, Clippers, Hawks, Nuggets, Bulls, Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Heat, Kings, Pacers.
When it comes to college sports (and international sports) it's much harders to define a heirarchy because there are so many teams.
- I will cheer for the "feel good story" or severe underdog in most cases (if they cancel out, who knows)
- I will never cheer for Illinios, Alabama, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Texas unless they are playing kansas.
- I will never cheer for Duke, Connecticut, Kentucky or UCLA in basketball (unless they are playing kansas).
- I tend to cheer against SEC conference teams unless it benefits me or Missouri.
- If I know someone who is an alum or fan, I will cheer for that team.
This brings us to this year's NCAA tournament. When your team is out on the first day, there is little left to get excited about. Other than the Gonzaga/Wichita State second half, the Indiana/Temple last 10 minutes, and the Michigan/kansas overtime, I didn't watch any games after Mizzou lost, until the Elite 8.
The Sweet 16 carried a very wide spectrum of entertainment value for me... best case Louisville, La Salle, Miami, and Florida Gulf Coast would have been a fun idea (if quality games), and worst case Duke, Ohio State, Syracuse, kansas would have meant keeping the TV off. I got a darn good compromise. Underdog Wichita State, feel-good Louisville, Fab Five (huge fan at the time) revival Michigan, and eh, fine, Syracuse. It's so much fun to watch a basketball game (especially close ones) when you don't care who wins... turns out I cared.
Hey, I'm happy for Louisville. But I found myself cheering for the Shockers and Wolverines, maybe because Pitino had been there before, maybe because I love the upset. All the same, it was a damn good tournament. As long as there are more guys like Kevin Ware and Luke Hancock and less like Marshall Henderson, I'll be happy.
But here's how I know I'm a good sports fan:
I will always cheer for the following teams no matter what the situation (barring a gun to my head): Chiefs for NFL, Royals for MLB, Pacers for NBA (or the Kings if they ever get better), Missouri for college sports, and USA for international sports.
I will always cheer against the following teams no matter what the situation: Raiders, Yankees, Lakers, kansas, and France.
But if I'm watching a game that does not involve one of those teams, I tend to have a heirarchy of "fandom" and always find myself cheering for one team over another. The pro teams are pretty cut-and-dry, as you can see:
NFL (bottom up)
Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Chargers, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Texans, Vikings, Lions, Saints, Jaguars, Colts, Bengals, Redskins, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Bills, Panthers, Chiefs.
MLB
Yankees, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mariners, Angles, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Royals.
NBA
Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Bobcats, Wizards, Cavaliers, Bucks, Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks, Blazers, Timberwolves, Magic, Pistons, Raptors, Sixers, Suns, Clippers, Hawks, Nuggets, Bulls, Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Heat, Kings, Pacers.
When it comes to college sports (and international sports) it's much harders to define a heirarchy because there are so many teams.
- I will cheer for the "feel good story" or severe underdog in most cases (if they cancel out, who knows)
- I will never cheer for Illinios, Alabama, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Texas unless they are playing kansas.
- I will never cheer for Duke, Connecticut, Kentucky or UCLA in basketball (unless they are playing kansas).
- I tend to cheer against SEC conference teams unless it benefits me or Missouri.
- If I know someone who is an alum or fan, I will cheer for that team.
This brings us to this year's NCAA tournament. When your team is out on the first day, there is little left to get excited about. Other than the Gonzaga/Wichita State second half, the Indiana/Temple last 10 minutes, and the Michigan/kansas overtime, I didn't watch any games after Mizzou lost, until the Elite 8.
The Sweet 16 carried a very wide spectrum of entertainment value for me... best case Louisville, La Salle, Miami, and Florida Gulf Coast would have been a fun idea (if quality games), and worst case Duke, Ohio State, Syracuse, kansas would have meant keeping the TV off. I got a darn good compromise. Underdog Wichita State, feel-good Louisville, Fab Five (huge fan at the time) revival Michigan, and eh, fine, Syracuse. It's so much fun to watch a basketball game (especially close ones) when you don't care who wins... turns out I cared.
Hey, I'm happy for Louisville. But I found myself cheering for the Shockers and Wolverines, maybe because Pitino had been there before, maybe because I love the upset. All the same, it was a damn good tournament. As long as there are more guys like Kevin Ware and Luke Hancock and less like Marshall Henderson, I'll be happy.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Guts Versus Brains: The Internal Struggle
As someone who struggles with his weight, I can tell you that the only time my brain and my guts are on the same page is when I see free food... and when picking against the Royals.
That being said, this year I chose to have one bracket with my gut-decision picks ("eye test") and one with a statistical comparision/analysis. Here are my picks for the ENTIRE bracket going region by region:
Midwest Guts:
Liberty over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over Liberty, Colorado State over Missouri, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Middle Tennesse over Memphis, Michigan State over Valparaiso, Cincinnati over Creighton, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over St. Louis, Michigan State over Middle Tennessee, Duke over Cincinnati
Louisville over Oklahoma State, Michigan State over Duke
Louisville over Duke
Midwest Brains:
North Carolina A&T over Liberty, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over North Carolina A&T, Missouri over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Memphis over Middle Tennessee, Valparaiso over Michigan State, Creighton over Cincinnati, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Missouri, St. Louis over Oklahoma State, Memphis over Valparaiso, Duke over Creighton
Louisville over St. Louis, Memphis over Duke
Memphis over Louisville
West Guts:
La Salle over Boise State
Gonzaga over Southern, Wichita State over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over La Salle, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Wichita State, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
West Brains:
Boise State over La Salle
Gonzaga over Southern, Pittsburgh over Wichita State, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over Boise State, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Pittsburgh, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
South Guts:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, VCU over Akron, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State over Oklahoma, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, VCU over Michigan, Florida over Michigan, Georgetown over San Diego State
VCU over Kansas, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over VCU
South Brains:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, Akron over VCU, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, Michigan over Akron, Florida over Minnesota, Georgetown over San Diego State
Kansas over Michigan, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over Kansas
East Guts:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, NC State over Temple, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Butler over Bucknell, Davidson over Marquette, Colorado over Illinois, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over NC State, UNLV over Montana, Butler over Davidson, Miami (FL) over Colorado
Indiana over UNLV, Miami (FL) over Butler
Indiana over Miami (FL)
East Brains:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, Temple over NC State, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Bucknell over Butler, Marquette over Davidson, Illinois over Colorado, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over Temple, Montana over UNLV, Bucknell over Marquette, Miami (FL) over Illinois
Indiana over Montana, Bucknell over Miami (FL)
Indiana over Bucknell
Final Four Guts:
Louisville over Gonzaga, Indiana over Florida
Indiana over Louisville
Final Four Brains:
Gonzaga over Memphis, Indiana over Florida
Gonzaga over Indiana
That being said, this year I chose to have one bracket with my gut-decision picks ("eye test") and one with a statistical comparision/analysis. Here are my picks for the ENTIRE bracket going region by region:
Midwest Guts:
Liberty over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over Liberty, Colorado State over Missouri, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Middle Tennesse over Memphis, Michigan State over Valparaiso, Cincinnati over Creighton, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over St. Louis, Michigan State over Middle Tennessee, Duke over Cincinnati
Louisville over Oklahoma State, Michigan State over Duke
Louisville over Duke
Midwest Brains:
North Carolina A&T over Liberty, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over North Carolina A&T, Missouri over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Memphis over Middle Tennessee, Valparaiso over Michigan State, Creighton over Cincinnati, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Missouri, St. Louis over Oklahoma State, Memphis over Valparaiso, Duke over Creighton
Louisville over St. Louis, Memphis over Duke
Memphis over Louisville
West Guts:
La Salle over Boise State
Gonzaga over Southern, Wichita State over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over La Salle, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Wichita State, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
West Brains:
Boise State over La Salle
Gonzaga over Southern, Pittsburgh over Wichita State, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over Boise State, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Pittsburgh, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
South Guts:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, VCU over Akron, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State over Oklahoma, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, VCU over Michigan, Florida over Michigan, Georgetown over San Diego State
VCU over Kansas, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over VCU
South Brains:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, Akron over VCU, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, Michigan over Akron, Florida over Minnesota, Georgetown over San Diego State
Kansas over Michigan, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over Kansas
East Guts:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, NC State over Temple, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Butler over Bucknell, Davidson over Marquette, Colorado over Illinois, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over NC State, UNLV over Montana, Butler over Davidson, Miami (FL) over Colorado
Indiana over UNLV, Miami (FL) over Butler
Indiana over Miami (FL)
East Brains:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, Temple over NC State, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Bucknell over Butler, Marquette over Davidson, Illinois over Colorado, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over Temple, Montana over UNLV, Bucknell over Marquette, Miami (FL) over Illinois
Indiana over Montana, Bucknell over Miami (FL)
Indiana over Bucknell
Final Four Guts:
Louisville over Gonzaga, Indiana over Florida
Indiana over Louisville
Final Four Brains:
Gonzaga over Memphis, Indiana over Florida
Gonzaga over Indiana
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Why is it called the First Four?
Some people have been calling the first round of the NCAA Tournament the "First Four" (or maybe they don't, but it's in my head anyway). If the Final Four refers to the last 4 teams left, should the first round be the First Eight?
Moving on...
I'm working on my brackets for the actual tournament draw (blog coming tomorrow or Thursday), but here is what the bracket would have looked like if I were running the show (no regional pods or conference concerns):
1: Louisville vs. 16: Southern or Liberty
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Northwestern State
3: New Mexico vs. 14: Iona
4: St. Louis vs. 13: New Mexico State
5: Michigan vs. 12: Valparaiso
6: UCLA vs. 11: Boise State
7: San Diego State vs. 10: Villanova
8: Illinois vs. 9: Notre Dame
1: Duke vs. 16: Long Island or North Carolina A&T
2: Florida vs. 15: Florida Gulf Coast
3: Syracuse vs. 14: Harvard
4: Arizona vs. 13: Bucknell
5: North Carolina vs. 12: Oregon
6: Minnesota vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Memphis vs. 10: Wichita State
8: Creighton vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: James Madison
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Pacific
4: Wisconsin vs. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: Pittsburgh vs. 11: Southern Miss
7: UNLV vs. 10: Belmont
8: Butler vs. 9: Colorado
1: Ohio State vs. 16: Albany
2: Kansas vs. 15: Western Kentucky
3: Georgetown vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette vs. 13: Davidson
5: Kansas State vs. 12: Iowa State or California
6: VCU vs. 11: Mississippi
7: Colorado State vs. 10: Oklahoma
8: Missouri vs. 9: St. Mary's
Last 4 In: Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, California, La Salle
First 4 Out: Kentucky, Temple, Tennessee, Alabama
Next 8 Out (I considered 8 extra teams just to see how close it was): Denver, Massachusetts, BYU, Florida State, Detroit, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F Austin
Basically, my bracket is all the same teams (minus Temple, plus Southern Miss) and in a slightly difference seeding order.
I'm working on two brackets; one picking from the gut, the other picking with the stats. But with the "First Four" starting tonight, here are the picks for the first round games:
Middle Tennesse vs. St. Mary's - gut and brains agree that Middle Tennesse will prove it belongs with tough defense.
Boise State vs. La Salle - the stats lean slightly to a bigger, slightly more efficient Boise team, but my gut says La Salle's strengths will be stronger.
Long Island vs. James Madison - Long Island is going to run and JMU doesn't have a stout enough defense, the stats and brain agree.
North Carolina A&T vs. Liberty - the Flames are just glad to still be playing, my gut says they ride the hot streak, but the numbers favor NC A&T.
Moving on...
I'm working on my brackets for the actual tournament draw (blog coming tomorrow or Thursday), but here is what the bracket would have looked like if I were running the show (no regional pods or conference concerns):
1: Louisville vs. 16: Southern or Liberty
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Northwestern State
3: New Mexico vs. 14: Iona
4: St. Louis vs. 13: New Mexico State
5: Michigan vs. 12: Valparaiso
6: UCLA vs. 11: Boise State
7: San Diego State vs. 10: Villanova
8: Illinois vs. 9: Notre Dame
1: Duke vs. 16: Long Island or North Carolina A&T
2: Florida vs. 15: Florida Gulf Coast
3: Syracuse vs. 14: Harvard
4: Arizona vs. 13: Bucknell
5: North Carolina vs. 12: Oregon
6: Minnesota vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Memphis vs. 10: Wichita State
8: Creighton vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: James Madison
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Pacific
4: Wisconsin vs. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: Pittsburgh vs. 11: Southern Miss
7: UNLV vs. 10: Belmont
8: Butler vs. 9: Colorado
1: Ohio State vs. 16: Albany
2: Kansas vs. 15: Western Kentucky
3: Georgetown vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette vs. 13: Davidson
5: Kansas State vs. 12: Iowa State or California
6: VCU vs. 11: Mississippi
7: Colorado State vs. 10: Oklahoma
8: Missouri vs. 9: St. Mary's
Last 4 In: Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, California, La Salle
First 4 Out: Kentucky, Temple, Tennessee, Alabama
Next 8 Out (I considered 8 extra teams just to see how close it was): Denver, Massachusetts, BYU, Florida State, Detroit, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F Austin
Basically, my bracket is all the same teams (minus Temple, plus Southern Miss) and in a slightly difference seeding order.
I'm working on two brackets; one picking from the gut, the other picking with the stats. But with the "First Four" starting tonight, here are the picks for the first round games:
Middle Tennesse vs. St. Mary's - gut and brains agree that Middle Tennesse will prove it belongs with tough defense.
Boise State vs. La Salle - the stats lean slightly to a bigger, slightly more efficient Boise team, but my gut says La Salle's strengths will be stronger.
Long Island vs. James Madison - Long Island is going to run and JMU doesn't have a stout enough defense, the stats and brain agree.
North Carolina A&T vs. Liberty - the Flames are just glad to still be playing, my gut says they ride the hot streak, but the numbers favor NC A&T.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Things Went Down on Thurday
With no real changes from Tuesday and Wednesday's action (I crunched the numbers both days and no one moved in or out), I though about not checking today. I'm glad I did! When the top four seeds fail to lose a game in a conference tournament stuff gets crazy. Even thought the carnage of the MEAC bracket didn't affect those teams on the bubble, it lends evidence to how intense Thursday's games were.
I didn't think there'd be much but I did notice some slight changes, so here you go: (Auto-bids in bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Kansas v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
3: Georgetown v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: North Carolina v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Villanova
7: St. Louis v. 10: Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Indiana v. 16: Long Island (NEC) or Morgan State
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Michigan v. 13: New Mexico State
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: San Diego State v. 11: Boise State
7: Missouri v. 10: NC State
8: Memphis v. 9: Notre Dame
1: Louisville v. 16: James Madison (Colonial)
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Syracuse v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell (Patriot)
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Temple or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Colorado State v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Creighton (MVC) v. 9: Kentucky
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State (Summit)
4: Marquette v. 13: Davidson (SoCon)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Iowa State
6: VCU v. 11: California
7: Illinois v. 10: Oklahoma
8: UNLV v. 9: Colorado
Last 4 In:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
La Salle
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
I didn't think there'd be much but I did notice some slight changes, so here you go: (Auto-bids in bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Kansas v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
3: Georgetown v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: North Carolina v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Villanova
7: St. Louis v. 10: Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Indiana v. 16: Long Island (NEC) or Morgan State
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Michigan v. 13: New Mexico State
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: San Diego State v. 11: Boise State
7: Missouri v. 10: NC State
8: Memphis v. 9: Notre Dame
1: Louisville v. 16: James Madison (Colonial)
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Syracuse v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell (Patriot)
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Temple or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Colorado State v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Creighton (MVC) v. 9: Kentucky
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State (Summit)
4: Marquette v. 13: Davidson (SoCon)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Iowa State
6: VCU v. 11: California
7: Illinois v. 10: Oklahoma
8: UNLV v. 9: Colorado
Last 4 In:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
La Salle
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Sometimes Things Can Change in a Day, Right?
Okay, so with a few more bids secured last night, here is my updated bracket: (automatic bids in Bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Norfolk State or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Wichita State
7: San Diego State v. 10: Villanova
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Indiana v. 16: James Madison (Colonial) or Southern
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Syracuse v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: California
7: St. Louis v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Louisville v. 16: Long Island
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Georgetown v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson (Southern)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: Colorado State v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Memphis v. 9: Colorado
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Missouri v. 9: Kentucky
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Tennessee
I know I've got a few conference games, but the basic idea is where teams fall as far as deserved seeding based on my criteria. The biggest thing is Middle Tennessee being 5 team above the cut line with Western Kentucky taking the Sun Belt auto-bid. Can they hold on?
Denver (a new team this week) is the first team out, but scores higher than WAC counterpart Louisiana Tech. I have Tech in because they are the top seed in the tournament, so this could change at any moment.
1: Duke v. 16: Norfolk State or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Wichita State
7: San Diego State v. 10: Villanova
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Indiana v. 16: James Madison (Colonial) or Southern
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Syracuse v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: California
7: St. Louis v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Louisville v. 16: Long Island
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Georgetown v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson (Southern)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: Colorado State v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Memphis v. 9: Colorado
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Missouri v. 9: Kentucky
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Tennessee
I know I've got a few conference games, but the basic idea is where teams fall as far as deserved seeding based on my criteria. The biggest thing is Middle Tennessee being 5 team above the cut line with Western Kentucky taking the Sun Belt auto-bid. Can they hold on?
Denver (a new team this week) is the first team out, but scores higher than WAC counterpart Louisiana Tech. I have Tech in because they are the top seed in the tournament, so this could change at any moment.
Monday, March 11, 2013
It's Crazyness! (Because Madness is Overdone)
Before we get to my updated rankings for today, allow me a moment to rant on the Missouri Tigers and their situation.
A week ago the Tigers were tied with Mississippi for 4th place in the SEC. They were still alive for the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, but they needed to beat Arkansas and Tennessee, have Kentucky lose to Georgia AND Florida, and have the winner of the Alabama vs. Mississippi game lose their Saturday game. A lot to ask for, but possible.
On Saturday morning, all the chips were in place. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Georgia, Mississippi beat Alabama (they were playing at LSU, while Alabama was home for Georgia). This had created a 4-way tie for second place. Then, in the span of an hour, the shit hit the fan. Florida failed to score ANYTHING in the final 7:30 and let Kentucky come back to win. Alabama hit a half-court buzzer beater to beat Georgia. Mississippi handled LSU. And finally, Phil Pressey hoisted the most ill-advised 3-pointer EVER (like in all the history of basketball EVER), causing the Tigers to fall into a tie with Tennessee for 5th place... which Tennessee then owned the tie-break.
Why was Pressey's shot so bad? The Tigers were down 3. They had 2 timeouts left. They had 17 seconds left. He (nor most of his teammates) hadn't made one all game. They had 2 timeouts left. There is ABSOLUTELY NO BASKETBALL LOGIC BEHIND HIS DECISION. Sure, if it goes in, great... but then Tennessee had 12 seconds and a timeout to win it.
Half the blame could go to coach Haith... he could have called timeout. But most of it goes on Pressey. I'd be apologizing for him all season; defending him after the Kentucky loss when my wife was sick of him; blaming the defense for the loss to A&M; citing poor coaching for the loss to UCLA; missing Lawrence Bowers against LSU; and roasting the officiating against Arkansas. I can't do that anymore. This one's on him. Not just the bad shot, but he had three or four defensive lapses in the second half and I don't think he got the the free throw line once. If you want to take the last shot, run a play for yourself, use some clock and get a screen. The better no-timeout, no-play, too quick decision would have been to just drive at the basket, maybe get 3 the old-fashioned way. Nothing about his shot makes any sense to anyone that knows basketball... worst of all, he airballed it.
Okay, on with the rankings (bold teams have clinched an automatic bid):
1: Indiana v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Syracuse v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Colorado
7: UCLA v. 10 Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Duke v. 16: Long Island or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Georgetown v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: Colorado State v. 11: California
7: San Diego State v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: Kentucky
1: Louisville v. 16: Northeastern
2: Ohio State v. 15: Florida International
3: New Mexico v. 14: Iona
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: St. Louis v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Villanova
8: Memphis v. 9: Belmont (OVC)
1: Michigan State v. 16: Montana
2: Florida v. 15: Vermont
3: Marquette v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Missouri v. 9: Notre Dame
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Bids Handed Out Tonight:
Colonial (Northeastern v. James Madison)
Southern (Davidson v. Charleston)
Sun Belt (Florida International v. Western Kentucky)
MAAC (Iona v. Manhattan)
WCC (Gonzaga v. St. Mary's)
A week ago the Tigers were tied with Mississippi for 4th place in the SEC. They were still alive for the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, but they needed to beat Arkansas and Tennessee, have Kentucky lose to Georgia AND Florida, and have the winner of the Alabama vs. Mississippi game lose their Saturday game. A lot to ask for, but possible.
On Saturday morning, all the chips were in place. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Georgia, Mississippi beat Alabama (they were playing at LSU, while Alabama was home for Georgia). This had created a 4-way tie for second place. Then, in the span of an hour, the shit hit the fan. Florida failed to score ANYTHING in the final 7:30 and let Kentucky come back to win. Alabama hit a half-court buzzer beater to beat Georgia. Mississippi handled LSU. And finally, Phil Pressey hoisted the most ill-advised 3-pointer EVER (like in all the history of basketball EVER), causing the Tigers to fall into a tie with Tennessee for 5th place... which Tennessee then owned the tie-break.
Why was Pressey's shot so bad? The Tigers were down 3. They had 2 timeouts left. They had 17 seconds left. He (nor most of his teammates) hadn't made one all game. They had 2 timeouts left. There is ABSOLUTELY NO BASKETBALL LOGIC BEHIND HIS DECISION. Sure, if it goes in, great... but then Tennessee had 12 seconds and a timeout to win it.
Half the blame could go to coach Haith... he could have called timeout. But most of it goes on Pressey. I'd be apologizing for him all season; defending him after the Kentucky loss when my wife was sick of him; blaming the defense for the loss to A&M; citing poor coaching for the loss to UCLA; missing Lawrence Bowers against LSU; and roasting the officiating against Arkansas. I can't do that anymore. This one's on him. Not just the bad shot, but he had three or four defensive lapses in the second half and I don't think he got the the free throw line once. If you want to take the last shot, run a play for yourself, use some clock and get a screen. The better no-timeout, no-play, too quick decision would have been to just drive at the basket, maybe get 3 the old-fashioned way. Nothing about his shot makes any sense to anyone that knows basketball... worst of all, he airballed it.
Okay, on with the rankings (bold teams have clinched an automatic bid):
1: Indiana v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Syracuse v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Colorado
7: UCLA v. 10 Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Duke v. 16: Long Island or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Georgetown v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: Colorado State v. 11: California
7: San Diego State v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: Kentucky
1: Louisville v. 16: Northeastern
2: Ohio State v. 15: Florida International
3: New Mexico v. 14: Iona
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: St. Louis v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Villanova
8: Memphis v. 9: Belmont (OVC)
1: Michigan State v. 16: Montana
2: Florida v. 15: Vermont
3: Marquette v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Missouri v. 9: Notre Dame
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Bids Handed Out Tonight:
Colonial (Northeastern v. James Madison)
Southern (Davidson v. Charleston)
Sun Belt (Florida International v. Western Kentucky)
MAAC (Iona v. Manhattan)
WCC (Gonzaga v. St. Mary's)
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
March Madness Has Begun!
Gonzaga is #1. Conference leads are changing hands (Texas Southern, Mercer, Princeton, St. Louis, and Creighton are now in place for auto-bids). And we've started discuss what loses are worse than others. (Honestly, no loss is a good loss, but the worst one this year HAS to be kansas losing to TCU)
On to the seedings...
1: Duke v. 16: Texas Southern or Charleston Southern
2: Syracuse v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Ohio State v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Georgetown v. 13: Akron
5: Arizona v. 12: Virginia or Southern Miss
6: St. Louis v. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: Oklahoma v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Colorado v. 9: Missouri
1: Indiana v. 16: Northeastern or Norfolk State
2: Michigan State v. 15: Niagara
3: Gonzaga v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Wisconsin v. 13: Bucknell
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Boise State or La Salle
6: UNLV v. 11: Kentucky
7: UCLA v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Connecticut v. 9: NC State
1: Louisville v. 16: Montana
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Michigan v. 14: Princeton
4: Minnesota v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: North Carolina v. 12: Villanova
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: San Diego State v. 10: Creighton
8: Memphis v. 9: California
1: Kansas v. 16: Mercer
2: Florida v. 15: Robert Morris
3: New Mexico v. 14: Davidson
4: Marquette v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Kansas State v. 12: Oregon
6: Oklahoma State v. 11: Wichita State
7: Illinois v. 10: Belmont
8: Colorado State v. 9: Butler
Last 4 In:
Boise State
Virginia
Southern Miss
La Salle
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Temple
Iowa State
Massachusetts
On to the seedings...
1: Duke v. 16: Texas Southern or Charleston Southern
2: Syracuse v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Ohio State v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Georgetown v. 13: Akron
5: Arizona v. 12: Virginia or Southern Miss
6: St. Louis v. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: Oklahoma v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Colorado v. 9: Missouri
1: Indiana v. 16: Northeastern or Norfolk State
2: Michigan State v. 15: Niagara
3: Gonzaga v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Wisconsin v. 13: Bucknell
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Boise State or La Salle
6: UNLV v. 11: Kentucky
7: UCLA v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Connecticut v. 9: NC State
1: Louisville v. 16: Montana
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Michigan v. 14: Princeton
4: Minnesota v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: North Carolina v. 12: Villanova
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: San Diego State v. 10: Creighton
8: Memphis v. 9: California
1: Kansas v. 16: Mercer
2: Florida v. 15: Robert Morris
3: New Mexico v. 14: Davidson
4: Marquette v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Kansas State v. 12: Oregon
6: Oklahoma State v. 11: Wichita State
7: Illinois v. 10: Belmont
8: Colorado State v. 9: Butler
Last 4 In:
Boise State
Virginia
Southern Miss
La Salle
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Temple
Iowa State
Massachusetts
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Last February BBall Ranks
So I did the number crunching on Monday and was away from my computer on Tuesday, so these ranks do not include results from Monday or Tuesday.
1: Duke vs. 16: Charleston Southern or Southern
2: Syracuse vs. 15: Niagara
3: Michigan vs. 14: Stony Brook
4: Marquette vs. 13: Akron
5: Minnesota vs. 12: Oregon or Temple
6: Illinois vs. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: Oklahoma vs. 10: California
8: Butler vs. 9: Missouri
1: Florida vs. 16: Mercer or Norfolk State
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Long Beach State
3: Ohio State vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Georgetown vs. 13: Bucknell
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Massachusetts or Southern Miss
6: UNLV vs. 11: St. Mary's
7: San Diego State vs. 10: UCLA
8: Colorado vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: Robert Morris
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Wisconsin vs. 14: Harvard
4: New Mexico vs. 13: Valparaiso
5: Pittsburgh vs. 12: Villanova
6: Kansas State vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Connecticut vs. 10: Notre Dame
8: VCU vs. 9: Belmont
1: Louisville vs. 16: Northeastern
2: Kansas vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Davidson
4: Arizona vs. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Colorado State vs. 12: Creighton
6: North Carolina vs. 11: La Salle
7: Memphis vs. 10: Kentucky
8: St. Louis vs. 9: Wichita State
Last 4 In:
Massachusetts
Oregon
Temple
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Iowa State
Tennessee
Boise State
Mississippi
1: Duke vs. 16: Charleston Southern or Southern
2: Syracuse vs. 15: Niagara
3: Michigan vs. 14: Stony Brook
4: Marquette vs. 13: Akron
5: Minnesota vs. 12: Oregon or Temple
6: Illinois vs. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: Oklahoma vs. 10: California
8: Butler vs. 9: Missouri
1: Florida vs. 16: Mercer or Norfolk State
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Long Beach State
3: Ohio State vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Georgetown vs. 13: Bucknell
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Massachusetts or Southern Miss
6: UNLV vs. 11: St. Mary's
7: San Diego State vs. 10: UCLA
8: Colorado vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: Robert Morris
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Wisconsin vs. 14: Harvard
4: New Mexico vs. 13: Valparaiso
5: Pittsburgh vs. 12: Villanova
6: Kansas State vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Connecticut vs. 10: Notre Dame
8: VCU vs. 9: Belmont
1: Louisville vs. 16: Northeastern
2: Kansas vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Davidson
4: Arizona vs. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Colorado State vs. 12: Creighton
6: North Carolina vs. 11: La Salle
7: Memphis vs. 10: Kentucky
8: St. Louis vs. 9: Wichita State
Last 4 In:
Massachusetts
Oregon
Temple
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Iowa State
Tennessee
Boise State
Mississippi
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Week 4 College Bball Rankings
In case you missed it last night (because you probably don't watch women's basketball), the most talented/heralded female player in the country is a dirty player. That's right, Brittany Griner is dirty. Want proof?
Here's an older example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqDybiRJrAQ
And here's last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIqPqBcM7ZE (fast forward to the 0:58 mark)
I can't give awards to a player that can't control emotions and uses cheap tactics to help her succeed.
Anyway, on to the men's rankings:
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or High Point
2: Syracuse v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Michigan v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Marquette v. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Norte Dame or Boise State
6: Colorado v. 11: Oregon
7: Butler v. 10: Belmont
8: Connecticut v. 9: Missouri
1: Duke v. 16: Mercer or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Niagara
3: Arizona v. 14: Harvard
4: Pittsburgh v. 13: Bucknell
5: Colorado State v. 12: St. Mary's or Southern Miss
6: Oklahoma v. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: North Carolina v. 10: Wichita State
8: Memphis v. 9: Kentucky
1: Miami (FL) v. 16: Montana
2: Indiana v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Wisconsin v. 14: Davidson
4: Minnesota v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Kansas State v. 12: Iowa State
6: Illinois v. 11: La Salle
7: Cincinnati v. 10: St. Louis
8: UNLV v. 9: NC State
1: Louisville v. 16: Robert Morris
2: Michigan State v. 15: Northeastern
3: Gonzaga v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Ohio State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Georgetown v. 12: California
6: New Mexico v. 11: Creighton
7: VCU v. 10: Baylor
8: San Diego State v. 9: UCLA
Last 4 In:
St. Mary's
Notre Dame
Boise State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Mississippi
Maryland
Temple
Massachusetts
Changes from last week:
High Point replaces UNC-Asheville from the Big South
Mercer replaces Florida-Gulf Coast from the Atlantic Sun
Robert Morris replaces Bryant from the Northeast
South Dakota State replaces Western Illinois from the Summit
Mississippi moves out
Boise State moves in
Maryland gets close
St. Louis is all in
Southern Miss moves in
Indiana State moves out
Here's an older example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqDybiRJrAQ
And here's last night: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIqPqBcM7ZE (fast forward to the 0:58 mark)
I can't give awards to a player that can't control emotions and uses cheap tactics to help her succeed.
Anyway, on to the men's rankings:
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or High Point
2: Syracuse v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Michigan v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Marquette v. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Norte Dame or Boise State
6: Colorado v. 11: Oregon
7: Butler v. 10: Belmont
8: Connecticut v. 9: Missouri
1: Duke v. 16: Mercer or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Niagara
3: Arizona v. 14: Harvard
4: Pittsburgh v. 13: Bucknell
5: Colorado State v. 12: St. Mary's or Southern Miss
6: Oklahoma v. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: North Carolina v. 10: Wichita State
8: Memphis v. 9: Kentucky
1: Miami (FL) v. 16: Montana
2: Indiana v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Wisconsin v. 14: Davidson
4: Minnesota v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Kansas State v. 12: Iowa State
6: Illinois v. 11: La Salle
7: Cincinnati v. 10: St. Louis
8: UNLV v. 9: NC State
1: Louisville v. 16: Robert Morris
2: Michigan State v. 15: Northeastern
3: Gonzaga v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Ohio State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Georgetown v. 12: California
6: New Mexico v. 11: Creighton
7: VCU v. 10: Baylor
8: San Diego State v. 9: UCLA
Last 4 In:
St. Mary's
Notre Dame
Boise State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Mississippi
Maryland
Temple
Massachusetts
Changes from last week:
High Point replaces UNC-Asheville from the Big South
Mercer replaces Florida-Gulf Coast from the Atlantic Sun
Robert Morris replaces Bryant from the Northeast
South Dakota State replaces Western Illinois from the Summit
Mississippi moves out
Boise State moves in
Maryland gets close
St. Louis is all in
Southern Miss moves in
Indiana State moves out
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Week 3 College Bball Rankings
In another one of those weeks where it seems like to no lead is safe, and no favorite is unbeatable, here come my updated rankings:
1: Duke v. 16: Bryant or Southern
2: Arizona v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Michigan State v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Arkon
5: Butler v. 12: BYU or Notre Dame
6: Cincinnati v. 11: Oregon
7: Illinois v. 10: Creighton
8: NC State v. 9: UCLA
1: Florida v. 16: Western Illinois or Norfolk State
2: Michigan v. 15: Niagara
3: Kansas v. 14: Florida Gulf-Coast
4: Wisconsin v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: New Mexico v. 12: St. Louis or St. Mary's
6: Kentucky v. 11: Middle Tennessee State
7: UNLV v. 10: Memphis
8: Baylor v. 9: Belmont
1: Miami (FL) v. 16: Montana
2: Syracuse v. 15: Northeastern
3: Ohio State v. 14: Davidson
4: Pittsburgh v. 13: Bucknell
5: Colorado State v. 12: Mississippi
6: San Diego State v. 11: Wichita State
7: Colorado v. 10: North Carolina
8: Connecticut v. 9: La Salle
1: Indiana v. 16: UNC-Ashville
2: Louisville v. 15: Vermont
3: Minnesota v. 14: Harvard
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Marquette v. 12: Indiana State
6: Kansas State v. 11: Iowa State
7: Oklahoma v. 10: VCU
8: Georgetown v. 9: Missouri
Last 4 In:
St. Louis
BYU
Notre Dame
St. Mary's
First 4 Out:
Southern Miss
Temple
Massachusetts
Virginia
Changes from last week:
UNC-Ashville replaces Charleston Southern out of the Big South
Vermont replaces Stony Brook out the American East
Indiana State moves farther in
Boise State moves out
St. Mary's moves in
Charlotte not being considered and Temple is close
1: Duke v. 16: Bryant or Southern
2: Arizona v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Michigan State v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Arkon
5: Butler v. 12: BYU or Notre Dame
6: Cincinnati v. 11: Oregon
7: Illinois v. 10: Creighton
8: NC State v. 9: UCLA
1: Florida v. 16: Western Illinois or Norfolk State
2: Michigan v. 15: Niagara
3: Kansas v. 14: Florida Gulf-Coast
4: Wisconsin v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: New Mexico v. 12: St. Louis or St. Mary's
6: Kentucky v. 11: Middle Tennessee State
7: UNLV v. 10: Memphis
8: Baylor v. 9: Belmont
1: Miami (FL) v. 16: Montana
2: Syracuse v. 15: Northeastern
3: Ohio State v. 14: Davidson
4: Pittsburgh v. 13: Bucknell
5: Colorado State v. 12: Mississippi
6: San Diego State v. 11: Wichita State
7: Colorado v. 10: North Carolina
8: Connecticut v. 9: La Salle
1: Indiana v. 16: UNC-Ashville
2: Louisville v. 15: Vermont
3: Minnesota v. 14: Harvard
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Marquette v. 12: Indiana State
6: Kansas State v. 11: Iowa State
7: Oklahoma v. 10: VCU
8: Georgetown v. 9: Missouri
Last 4 In:
St. Louis
BYU
Notre Dame
St. Mary's
First 4 Out:
Southern Miss
Temple
Massachusetts
Virginia
Changes from last week:
UNC-Ashville replaces Charleston Southern out of the Big South
Vermont replaces Stony Brook out the American East
Indiana State moves farther in
Boise State moves out
St. Mary's moves in
Charlotte not being considered and Temple is close
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Week 2 College BBall Rankings
Damn DVR not scheduling the Superdome blackout, I missed most of the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl (up to the 2-minute warning), which made the part I did see somewhat anti-climactic. Oh well, another decent game worth watching that I was not emotionally vested in. I'm starting to think that if the Chiefs ever do play in the Super Bowl again, I'll be too nervious and intense to even bother eating/drinking the traditional faire.
On to another NFL off-season, the Chiefs are on the clock...
Anyways, here is this week's basketball rankings, it includes results through Sunday:
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or Norfolk State
2: Michigan v. 15: Niagara
3: Syracuse v. 14: Davidson
4: Colorado State v. 13: Indiana State or Boise State
5: Marquette v. 12: Akron
6: San Diego State v. 11: Illinois
7: Kentucky v. 10: Oregon
8: VCU v. 9: Missouri
1: Duke v. 16: Bryant or Charleston Southern
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Minnesota v. 14: Stony Brook
4: New Mexico v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee State
6: UNLV v. 11: BYU
7: Oklahoma v. 10: La Salle
8: Baylor v. 9: Creighton
1: Kansas v. 16: Montana
2: Louisville v. 15: Florida Gulf-Coast
3: Ohio State v. 14: Valparaiso
4: Cincinnati v. 13: North Dakota State
5: Butler v. 12: Southern Mississippi
6: Pittsburgh v. 11: Iowa State
7: Colorado v. 10: Mississippi
8: Wichita State v. 9: North Carolina
1: Indiana v. 16: Stephen F. Austin
2: Arizona v. 15: Northeastern
3: Michigan State v. 14: Harvard
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Kansas State v. 12: St. Louis or Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma State v. 11: Memphis
7: NC State v. 10: UCLA
8: Belmont v. 9: Georgetown
Last 4 In:
St. Louis
Notre Dame
Indiana State
Boise State
First 4 Out:
St. Mary's
Massachusetts
Virginia
Charlotte
Changes from last week:
Bryant replaces Robert Morris as NEC leaders.
North Dakota State replaces Western Illinois as Summit leaders.
Memphis moves in from "Last 4 In."
Boise State moves to "Last 4 In."
Arizona State, St. John's, and Wyoming are out.
Virginia and Charlotte are newly considered.
On to another NFL off-season, the Chiefs are on the clock...
Anyways, here is this week's basketball rankings, it includes results through Sunday:
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or Norfolk State
2: Michigan v. 15: Niagara
3: Syracuse v. 14: Davidson
4: Colorado State v. 13: Indiana State or Boise State
5: Marquette v. 12: Akron
6: San Diego State v. 11: Illinois
7: Kentucky v. 10: Oregon
8: VCU v. 9: Missouri
1: Duke v. 16: Bryant or Charleston Southern
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Minnesota v. 14: Stony Brook
4: New Mexico v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee State
6: UNLV v. 11: BYU
7: Oklahoma v. 10: La Salle
8: Baylor v. 9: Creighton
1: Kansas v. 16: Montana
2: Louisville v. 15: Florida Gulf-Coast
3: Ohio State v. 14: Valparaiso
4: Cincinnati v. 13: North Dakota State
5: Butler v. 12: Southern Mississippi
6: Pittsburgh v. 11: Iowa State
7: Colorado v. 10: Mississippi
8: Wichita State v. 9: North Carolina
1: Indiana v. 16: Stephen F. Austin
2: Arizona v. 15: Northeastern
3: Michigan State v. 14: Harvard
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Kansas State v. 12: St. Louis or Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma State v. 11: Memphis
7: NC State v. 10: UCLA
8: Belmont v. 9: Georgetown
Last 4 In:
St. Louis
Notre Dame
Indiana State
Boise State
First 4 Out:
St. Mary's
Massachusetts
Virginia
Charlotte
Changes from last week:
Bryant replaces Robert Morris as NEC leaders.
North Dakota State replaces Western Illinois as Summit leaders.
Memphis moves in from "Last 4 In."
Boise State moves to "Last 4 In."
Arizona State, St. John's, and Wyoming are out.
Virginia and Charlotte are newly considered.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
First '13 College Basketball Rankings
Nope, no Super Bowl talk. Go Niners, win one for Aldon and Justin.
It's time for my first "bracketology" rankings. You know the drill, I rank 72 teams (to get a "first 4 out"), I include all conference leaders, all teams receiving votes in both human polls, and the top 50 in the RPI (using RPI to break ties in conference standings). I average the team's RPI, poll ranks, strength of schedule rank, offensive efficiency rank, and defensive efficiency rank. Here is how the tourney would shape up including last nights games.
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or Norfolk State
2: Syracuse v. 15: Northeastern
3: Indiana v. 14: Davidson
4: UNLV v. 13: Memphis or Arizona State
5: Marquette v. 12: Bucknell
6: NC State v. 11: BYU
7: Colorado v. 10: Oklahoma State
8: UCLA v. 9: Connecticut
1: Kansas v. 16: Robert Morris or Charleston Southern
2: Michigan v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast
3: Gonzaga v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Cincinnati v. 13: Akron
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Indiana State or Notre Dame
6: Baylor v. 11: Iowa State
7: Belmont v. 10: Mississippi
8: Creighton v. 9: Kansas State
1: Duke v. 16: Montana
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Michigan State v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Butler v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: New Mexico v. 12: Southern Mississippi
6: Missouri v. 11: Villanova
7: VCU v. 10: La Salle
8: Colorado State v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Arizona v. 16: Western Illinois
2: Louisville v. 15: Niagara
3: Minnesota v. 14: Valparaiso
4: Ohio State v. 13: Harvard
5: Oregon v. 12: Middle Tennessee State
6: San Diego State v. 11: Georgetown
7: Wichita State v. 10: Illinois
8: Pittsburgh v. 9: North Carolina
Last Four In:
Indiana State
Notre Dame
Memphis
Arizona State
First Four Out:
St. John's
Wyoming
St. Mary's
Massachusetts
It's time for my first "bracketology" rankings. You know the drill, I rank 72 teams (to get a "first 4 out"), I include all conference leaders, all teams receiving votes in both human polls, and the top 50 in the RPI (using RPI to break ties in conference standings). I average the team's RPI, poll ranks, strength of schedule rank, offensive efficiency rank, and defensive efficiency rank. Here is how the tourney would shape up including last nights games.
1: Florida v. 16: Southern or Norfolk State
2: Syracuse v. 15: Northeastern
3: Indiana v. 14: Davidson
4: UNLV v. 13: Memphis or Arizona State
5: Marquette v. 12: Bucknell
6: NC State v. 11: BYU
7: Colorado v. 10: Oklahoma State
8: UCLA v. 9: Connecticut
1: Kansas v. 16: Robert Morris or Charleston Southern
2: Michigan v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast
3: Gonzaga v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Cincinnati v. 13: Akron
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Indiana State or Notre Dame
6: Baylor v. 11: Iowa State
7: Belmont v. 10: Mississippi
8: Creighton v. 9: Kansas State
1: Duke v. 16: Montana
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Michigan State v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Butler v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: New Mexico v. 12: Southern Mississippi
6: Missouri v. 11: Villanova
7: VCU v. 10: La Salle
8: Colorado State v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Arizona v. 16: Western Illinois
2: Louisville v. 15: Niagara
3: Minnesota v. 14: Valparaiso
4: Ohio State v. 13: Harvard
5: Oregon v. 12: Middle Tennessee State
6: San Diego State v. 11: Georgetown
7: Wichita State v. 10: Illinois
8: Pittsburgh v. 9: North Carolina
Last Four In:
Indiana State
Notre Dame
Memphis
Arizona State
First Four Out:
St. John's
Wyoming
St. Mary's
Massachusetts
Friday, January 4, 2013
Playoffs Are Coming
The problem with having divorced parents, being married to a woman with divorced parents, and having an 18-month-old who's the only great-grandchild in 2 of the 4 sides of the family is that the holidays can be extremely busy and tiresome. If all the families lived in the same city or were willing to all be in the same room, it'd be easy; but not the case. I'm not blaming my family for being away from a computer last week to do my Week 17 picks, just giving it up as a reason. I tweeted them out, but I realize most of you don't follow me... as I have only 10 followers (although I might not even have that many readers), but here's a recap:
Broncos over Chiefs
Bills over Jets
Bengals over Ravens
Steelers over Browns
Saints over Panthers
Bears over Lions
Texans over Colts
Titans over Jaguars
Giants over Eagles
Buccaneers over Falcons
Packers over Vikings
Patriots over Dolphins
Chargers over Raiders
49ers over Cardinals
Seahawks over Rams
Redskins over Cowboys
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 13-3
Season: 169-85
Wild Card Picks:
Ravens over Colts - is Andrew Luck the Rookie of the Year? Well, he surpassed expectations by taking the league-worst Colts back to the playoffs in 1 year. He put together a couple of great games in which he willed his team to win. And he manages to be a stellar quarterback while looking goofier than hell. Yes, the Colts are a zillion times better this year, but they still didn't prove anything on the road. If they had just won in Houston, they'd be hosting the Bengals while simultaneously preparing for the Patriots. They have impressed everyone and they are riding a better string of games than the Ravens, but I can't pick a team who's is 4-4 on the road with wins against KC, Jacksonville, Tennesse, and Detriot.
Texans over Bengals - this game is essentially meaningless, either the Texans lose to the Patriots or the Bengals lose to the Broncos. Honestly, I can see my self cheering for 7 teams in the Super Bowl, and these are the only two in the AFC.
Packers over Vikings - the Packers appeared to be overthinking their possible match-ups last week. They were either going to get the Vikings, Bears, Giants or Cowboys, but the only way they could control that was by losing a close one and playing the Vikings again. A win meant meant either the Bears, Giants or Cowboys (would have been the Bears). There choices were essentially a terrible QB with superstar RB and a strong defense or a bad QB with no RB and a strong (but old) defense. They made the wrong choice, but still I can't go against Rodgers.
Seahawks over Redskins - I love watching RG3; I love that I was right about the Redskins making the playoffs when I picked them to win on Thanksgiving; I love the DC fans and their support of the team; unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are the more complete team.
Broncos over Chiefs
Bills over Jets
Bengals over Ravens
Steelers over Browns
Saints over Panthers
Bears over Lions
Texans over Colts
Titans over Jaguars
Giants over Eagles
Buccaneers over Falcons
Packers over Vikings
Patriots over Dolphins
Chargers over Raiders
49ers over Cardinals
Seahawks over Rams
Redskins over Cowboys
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 13-3
Season: 169-85
Wild Card Picks:
Ravens over Colts - is Andrew Luck the Rookie of the Year? Well, he surpassed expectations by taking the league-worst Colts back to the playoffs in 1 year. He put together a couple of great games in which he willed his team to win. And he manages to be a stellar quarterback while looking goofier than hell. Yes, the Colts are a zillion times better this year, but they still didn't prove anything on the road. If they had just won in Houston, they'd be hosting the Bengals while simultaneously preparing for the Patriots. They have impressed everyone and they are riding a better string of games than the Ravens, but I can't pick a team who's is 4-4 on the road with wins against KC, Jacksonville, Tennesse, and Detriot.
Texans over Bengals - this game is essentially meaningless, either the Texans lose to the Patriots or the Bengals lose to the Broncos. Honestly, I can see my self cheering for 7 teams in the Super Bowl, and these are the only two in the AFC.
Packers over Vikings - the Packers appeared to be overthinking their possible match-ups last week. They were either going to get the Vikings, Bears, Giants or Cowboys, but the only way they could control that was by losing a close one and playing the Vikings again. A win meant meant either the Bears, Giants or Cowboys (would have been the Bears). There choices were essentially a terrible QB with superstar RB and a strong defense or a bad QB with no RB and a strong (but old) defense. They made the wrong choice, but still I can't go against Rodgers.
Seahawks over Redskins - I love watching RG3; I love that I was right about the Redskins making the playoffs when I picked them to win on Thanksgiving; I love the DC fans and their support of the team; unfortunately, I think the Seahawks are the more complete team.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Here Comes Winter and NFL Week 16
Tomorrow is the first official day of winter, but here in Columbia, it hit early. Snow and 30+ mph winds... oh joy. Not sure which is dislike the most, extreme winters or extreme summers. I'd rather be cold than hot, but I like driving with my windows down, too.
Everyone hunker down and enjoy the holidays. Next week's blog will be on Saturday, FYI.
NFL Week 16
- Colts over Chiefs... My LOCK of the week. I think the temporary injunction on ripping the Chiefs has ended, now it's just sad. I can't wait to see how they screw up the #1 draft pick.
- Patriots over Jaguars... the worst part about the Chiefs' situation? The Jaguars. It's never fun to have a team with clearer needs and a brighter (possibly) future breathing down your necks. I'd much rather be picking #2 this year... actually, I rather be at like 5-10, but that's because I have no idea who I would take.
- Broncos over Browns... knowing that the Patriots could steal their #2 seed at the first slip up will keep the New Mannings churning.
- Redskins over Eagles... this is where we find out how much "drive", "motivation", and "momentum" mean when need to win out. The 'Skins are hot, a roll to the #4 seed is likely, but they can't stop now.
- Packers over Titans... speaking of "can't stop now," can the Packers carry momentum (unlike last year) into the playoffs? Maybe playing out off the Wild Card round will actually help.
- Panthers over Raiders... anytime half your wins are against the Chiefs, you can't be trusted... although the Panthers did lose to the Chiefs.
- Bears over Cardinals... I'm glad Cutler's production dropped off, although I feel for Bears fans, he is approaching the cliff of QB despair... how quickly do you think the Cardinals trade for Sanchez? 10 minutes?
- Texans over Vikings... it's quite simple: stop Adrian Peterson for 60 minutes and lock down home field for the entire playoffs (seriously, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans, only the Falcons are close to having as easy a road trip).
- Saints over Cowboys... Brees loves Jerry's World. This Saints team would be in the playoffs if the NFL hadn't crippled them with unnecessary suspensions.
- Falcons over Lions... similar situation as the Texans, just keep from screwing up.
- Dolphins over Bills... not sure what to say. It's entirely possible we could finish with 3 rookie QBs winning 8 or more games... unheard of.
- Jets over Chargers... honestly, right now, I think Greg McElroy is a better QB than Phillip Rivers. What if the Jets and Chargers just trade QBs after this game? Sanchez close to home, and a fresh start for Rivers. Makes sense, right?
- Bengals over Steelers... most people assume that this is where the Steelers' playoff experience takes over. Not with their offensive line.
- Buccaneers over Rams... how do you respond to losing by 41? Good question. This game is a crap shoot.
- Giants over Ravens... you can't keep losing to decent teams and just expect to pick up the slack when it really matters, Ravens. I honestly think the Bengals win the AFC North. The Giants won't go quietly into the night either.
- Seahawks over 49ers... the Seahawks at home? The way they've been scoring? As much as I like the Niners, they weren't able to beat the Rams this year.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 144-79
Bowl Picks: 2-0 (29 pts)... I'm pretty sure I'll remember the 2012 New Mexico Bowl if not because I went from being "so very wrong" to "right" in 48 seconds of football. Great game.
Everyone hunker down and enjoy the holidays. Next week's blog will be on Saturday, FYI.
NFL Week 16
- Colts over Chiefs... My LOCK of the week. I think the temporary injunction on ripping the Chiefs has ended, now it's just sad. I can't wait to see how they screw up the #1 draft pick.
- Patriots over Jaguars... the worst part about the Chiefs' situation? The Jaguars. It's never fun to have a team with clearer needs and a brighter (possibly) future breathing down your necks. I'd much rather be picking #2 this year... actually, I rather be at like 5-10, but that's because I have no idea who I would take.
- Broncos over Browns... knowing that the Patriots could steal their #2 seed at the first slip up will keep the New Mannings churning.
- Redskins over Eagles... this is where we find out how much "drive", "motivation", and "momentum" mean when need to win out. The 'Skins are hot, a roll to the #4 seed is likely, but they can't stop now.
- Packers over Titans... speaking of "can't stop now," can the Packers carry momentum (unlike last year) into the playoffs? Maybe playing out off the Wild Card round will actually help.
- Panthers over Raiders... anytime half your wins are against the Chiefs, you can't be trusted... although the Panthers did lose to the Chiefs.
- Bears over Cardinals... I'm glad Cutler's production dropped off, although I feel for Bears fans, he is approaching the cliff of QB despair... how quickly do you think the Cardinals trade for Sanchez? 10 minutes?
- Texans over Vikings... it's quite simple: stop Adrian Peterson for 60 minutes and lock down home field for the entire playoffs (seriously, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans, only the Falcons are close to having as easy a road trip).
- Saints over Cowboys... Brees loves Jerry's World. This Saints team would be in the playoffs if the NFL hadn't crippled them with unnecessary suspensions.
- Falcons over Lions... similar situation as the Texans, just keep from screwing up.
- Dolphins over Bills... not sure what to say. It's entirely possible we could finish with 3 rookie QBs winning 8 or more games... unheard of.
- Jets over Chargers... honestly, right now, I think Greg McElroy is a better QB than Phillip Rivers. What if the Jets and Chargers just trade QBs after this game? Sanchez close to home, and a fresh start for Rivers. Makes sense, right?
- Bengals over Steelers... most people assume that this is where the Steelers' playoff experience takes over. Not with their offensive line.
- Buccaneers over Rams... how do you respond to losing by 41? Good question. This game is a crap shoot.
- Giants over Ravens... you can't keep losing to decent teams and just expect to pick up the slack when it really matters, Ravens. I honestly think the Bengals win the AFC North. The Giants won't go quietly into the night either.
- Seahawks over 49ers... the Seahawks at home? The way they've been scoring? As much as I like the Niners, they weren't able to beat the Rams this year.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 144-79
Bowl Picks: 2-0 (29 pts)... I'm pretty sure I'll remember the 2012 New Mexico Bowl if not because I went from being "so very wrong" to "right" in 48 seconds of football. Great game.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
NFL 15 and Bowl Game Picks
NFL Week 15 Picks
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
2012 Final College Football Ranks... and NFL Week 14 Picks, I guess
I'll start with the less important stuff so it doesn't get burried under the rest of the blog. NFL Week 14 picks are first, then you will find my 2012 Final Rankings for College Football. The only rankings I will do all year. I will include some hypothetical BCS and playoff analysis as well.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Christmas Shopping Can Wait
One more week of great football, then it pares down a bit until the BCS games and NFL playoffs, you can wait to do your Christmas shopping until next week (unless you are already done because you're one of those crazies that shopped last Friday).
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Happy Thanksfootballing!
A ton of rivalry games being played this weekend for both the pros and amateurs. Rivarlies make predicting games VERY hard. You never know how the attitude of each team is going to affect the outcome. While, some rivalries can be very one-sided, if there is enough dislike or envy between the teams, you never know what the motivations are going to be.
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Time for Balling... a Little Basket Before Foot
Hey, guess what? Basketball season started last week.
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
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