College Footbal Week 2

So, how about week 1? Utah State’s near upset of Auburn. The Baylor/TCU game. Boise’s dismantling of Georgia. The Big 12 and Big East going 18-0.

There is no easy way to describe how uneasy I feel about Mizzou’s 17-6 win over Miami-OH. With the short-week road-game coming up, I really hope the defense is ready to grind out another low scoring win. James Franklin does not look like much of a passer, but he has Brad Smith’s speed and Chase Daniel’s compact stride, which equals a lethal runner. Hopefully, Mizzou fans can hold off on asking for the Corbin Berkstresster era.

As for the pending realignment Armageddon, I think it’s fucking ridiculous that there are not NCAA mandated regulations on how conferences handle the distribution of TV time and money. The fact that Texas got a higher percentage of the profits from the TV deal and Nebraska/Colorado exit fees is absurd. It’s not enough that they are the dominant team on the field; they have to dominate the board room too? All this could have been prevented if the Big 12 wasn’t run by incompetent butt-kissers. Dan Bebee was the NCAA investigator primarily responsible for giving SMU the death penalty in the early ‘80s. SMU was out-recruiting Texas and Texas A&M in the old Southwest Conference and instead of simply sanctioning the Mustangs into mediocrity, he oversaw the handing down of the “death penalty” which essentially crushed their program for 20 years. SMU was a more attractive program than Baylor and Texas Tech, and probably would have ended up in the Big 12 had they avoided the “death penalty.” If hasn’t become obvious that Dan Bebee is in the pockets of some Texas boosters, then I must be insane.

Here’s this week’s picks:
Wisconsin over Oregon State – the Badgers will run amuck
Iowa over Iowa State – the one weakness of the remaining Big 12, what program of ISU’s is attractive to another conference?
Tennessee over Cincinnati – time for the Bearcats to focus on basketball
Alabama over Penn State – too bad the classiest coach in all of college football doesn’t have the talent to beat one of the biggest coaching douchebags
North Carolina over Rutgers – how much do you think Butch Davis is responsible for the violations at Miami?
Michigan over Notre Dame – under the lights in the big house plus very hyped crowd equals more struggles for the golden domers
Auburn over Mississippi State – I’m not buying the Miss State hype, Auburn rebounds nicely
Georgia over South Carolina – same goes for the Gamecocks and Georgia
BYU over Texas – has Garrett Gilbert proved anything? Why are we giving Texas credit before they show up against a quality opponent?
Utah over USC – a thus begins the biggest regret of the Pac-12, letting Utah come in and run the show

Last Week: 9-1 (51 pts.)

NFL Week 1

All right, so there is a lot going on to talk about in college football (mainly the pending realignment that I covered at the end of last season), but the NFL season starts tonight. So I’ll try to knock one out today and one tomorrow for the college boys.

Thank goodness the lockout is over, but honestly, it’s a vicious cycle and we’ll be right back where we started at the end of this CBA. I hope the owners and players understand that it’s pretty fucking annoying to listen to rich people complain about more money. The only thing I feel the players need to be concerned about is their retirement benefits and health care. These guys kill themselves for our entertainment; they should be able to live comfortably for their remaining years.

On to the season predictions:
AFC East: Patriots, Jets, Bills, Dolphins
AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals
AFC South: Texans, Colts, Jaguars, Titans
AFC West: Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs

Jets over Chargers, Ravens over Texans, Steelers over Jets, Patriots over Ravens, Patriots over Steelers

NFC East: Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys
NFC North: Packers, Lions, Bears, Vikings
NFC South: Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers
NFC West: 49ers, Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks

Giants over 49ers, Falcons over Saints, Packers over Giants, Eagles over Falcons, Packers over Eagles

Super Bowl: Patriots over Packers

That’s right, I’m picking the Patriots. Ochocinco gets his ring and retires (only to return a year later to embarrass himself).

This season, to stretch my gambling chops and one day be able to make money on my skills, I’m picking against the spread. Let’s hope this doesn’t develop into an addiction.

Packers (-4.5) over Saints
Falcons (-2.5) over Bears
Bills (+6.5) over Chiefs
Browns (-4.5) over Bengals
Lions (+3.5) over Buccaneers
Titans (+3.5) over Jaguars
Texans (-2.5) over Colts
Eagles (-5.5) over Rams
Steelers (+2.5) over Ravens
Vikings (+8.5) over Chargers
Redskins (+3.5) over Giants
Cardinals (-5.5) over Panthers
49ers (-5.5) over Seahawks
Jets (-4.5) over Cowboys
Patriots (-5.5) over Dolphins
Broncos (-0.5) over Raiders

College FB Week 1

It’s that time again. The greatest time of the year. Time for college football!
I can’t tell you how revved up I am already. The nice thing about being a Royals fan is that baseball season never gets in the way of football season. Don’t get me wrong, I pray for the day that I can’t switch off my “Royals race to not lose 100 games” tracker every September, but that may never happen.
This college football season has already been marred by scandals and conference realignment, but it begins with just as much hype and excitement as any other one.
Will Andrew Luck’s decision to stay help or hurt his future?
Will there be anyone left standing in the Big 12?
How will Colorado, Nebraska, Boise State, and BYU do in their new conferences (or independence)?
Can the Big East gain any respect?
Will someone finally haul off and punch Bob Stoops in the nuts?

And here are my conference predictions (dark-horses in italics):

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke
ACC Atlantic: Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, NC State
Florida State over Virginia Tech. I know it’s a popular pick but I think Florida State is back. Good for the ACC, bad for those of us that have always hated them.

Big “12”: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas
That’s right, I’m being a total homer and picking my team as the dark-horse. Watch out for Baylor to make some more waves, and I don’t think Texas is going to just turn it around in one year.

Big East: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Rutgers, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Louisville
Will it be WVU’s offense or Pitt’s defense? And will either team win 9 games?

Big “Ten” “Legends”: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota
Big “Ten” “Leaders”: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois
Wisconsin over Michigan State. How much with the scandal and suspensions hinder Ohio State’s success? Can Denard Robinson and Michigan adjust to a new offensive scheme? How many points will Wisconsin score?

C-USA East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB
C-USA West: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Tulane, Rice
Houston over Central Florida. Case Keenum is bound and determined to lead Houston to the conference title, and put up some gaudy numbers in the process.

Independents: Notre Dame, BYU, Navy, Army
The Irish should be in the BCS discussion, and I expect BYU to drop off a bit.

MAC East: Miami-OH, Temple, Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Akron, Kent State
MAC West: Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Ball State, Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan
Miami-OH over Northern Illinois. The Redhawks could be 11-2, if they get some respect they could be ranked by the end of the year.

MWC: TCU, Boise State, San Diego State, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico
Of course it comes down to the winner of TCU and Boise, but watch out for SDSU to sneak in if the others slip up.

Pac-12 North: Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, California, Washington, Washington State
Pac-12 South: Utah, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, USC, Colorado
Stanford over Utah. The Utes will rock the conference but fall short against a determined Cardinal and Andrew Luck. Colorado will suck gloriously.

SEC East: South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
SEC West: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Mississippi
Alabama over South Carolina. The Gamecocks will make a bigger splash than last year, but the Tide is too strong and experienced.

Sun Belt: Troy, Arkansas State, FIU, FAU, North Texas, Western Kentucky, UL-Monroe, UL-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee State
Always too tough to call. Eight wins would be a miracle for any of these teams.

WAC: Fresno State, Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State
This will be the swan song for the WAC. I hope these teams find somewhere to call home.

Heisman: Andrew Luck
National Champ: Alabama over Oklahoma
Rose: Stanford over Wisconsin
Orange: TCU over Florida State
Fiesta: Oklahoma State over West Virginia
Sugar: South Carolina over Utah

This Week’s Picks:
Auburn over Utah State
USC over Minnesota
Michigan over Western Michigan
South Carolina over East Carolina
Boise State over Georgia
LSU over Oregon
Boston College over Northwestern
Houston over UCLA
BYU over Mississippi
Hawaii over Colorado

Epic Rule Changing Manifesto

Let’s all take a moment to thank those over-paid athletes and owners for getting their heads out of their asses and making sure there is an NFL season this year. I would have survived on college football, but it would have been touch and go. If the NBA lockout never ends, I think I’ll be just fine.

It’s been four weeks since I last updated you on The Jet. He’s weighing in at over 13 lbs. now; which doesn’t sound like much until you’re trying to hold it gently while it screams and squirms with all its might. This last week he’s been very unhappy in my arms. I’m told that it’s difficult for a father to build a bond with his child because the mother got a 9 month head start and is the giver of food. Trying to comfort a fussy baby is like trying to get Mizzou to develop a power running game for short yardage situations; you can’t use reason or logic because they don’t seem to understand the language and you can’t use force because you love them too much, but neither of you are going to make it unless you get your point across.

Without further ado, I present my suggestions for major (and minor) rule changes for sports to make them more enjoyable (or less frustrating) for everyone.

First, baseball; the sport that needs the most help. Baseball is steeped in tradition and respect for the rules of the game is the number one rule of the game. Kind of like the first rule of Fight Club is you don’t talk about Fight Club.
- Catchers should be limited to two mound visits per inning per pitcher. If he makes a third visit he must be accompanied by the manager and a pitching change must be made.
- No warm-up pitches. That’s what the bullpen and pre-game is for. If a pitcher wants to stay loose during innings he can go to the bullpen.
- Limit the nonsense between pitches. Between pitches, after the ball is returned to the pitcher, the pitcher and the batter have 10 seconds to be set in their position. A batter is limited to 1 time out per at bat, and the pitcher/catcher have the aforementioned limit on mound visits.
- Ditch the DH. It makes for more intriguing strategy and truly exposes defensive liabilities (Billy Butler, I’m looking at you).
- Ban metal bats in high school and college games.
- Reformat the schedule so that the first part of the season is intra-league, non-division games (Yankees v. Rangers, Braves v. Giants), the second part is interleague games (limited to four 3-games series), and the final part is divisional games. Much more drama.
- Expand the playoffs to 6 teams per league. The teams will be seeded by record with no regard for division. The top two seeds receive byes. The first round is best-of-5, the rest are best-of-7. Limit each series to one travel day between games. Home field in the World Series goes to the team with best record.
- Institute instant replay and challenges. Just like in the NFL. It’s only used to review home runs and outs (diving catches, close plays at the bases). Managers have 2 challenges, and an umpire in the booth will review all plays in the ninth inning. Oh, and develop a “K-Zone”-like electronic, standardized balls-and-strikes system. A ball catching the strike zone will signal a buzzer in the umpire’s hand.

Next, basketball:
- First, we need to standardize the game across all levels (including the women’s game):
- The 3-point line will be 23 feet away from the basket, shorter than the NBA, but longer than the others.
- The lane will be 16’ by 19’ like in the NBA.
- The shot clock will be 24 seconds.
- FIBA goaltending rules will be thrown in the ocean; touch the ball on the way down, it’s goaltending.
- You have 8 seconds to get across half-court, it encourages pressing (especially in the women’s game) and imagine how many more turnovers the Tigers would have forced.
- All jump-balls will actually be jumped. No more alternating possession in college.
- All games will be made up of four 12-minute quarters.
- Inbounds after timeouts will occur where the ball went dead. No more advancing to half-court for the NBA.
- Speaking of timeouts, each team will have 5 per half. Two can be used only by players on the court only during live ball situations, and three can be used only by coaches only during dead ball situations. No more coaches calling timeout to reset the offense.
- The NCAA Tournament will expand to 96 teams and will include each conference’s regular season and tournament champions (also, the Ivy League has to play a conference tourney). The teams will be seeded regardless of conference or location 1-96, based on an average of their rankings in four polls (AP, ESPN, RPI, and Strength of Schedule). Seeds 1-32 will receive first-round byes. Seeds 33-96 will play in the first round (#33 vs. #96, #34 vs. #95, etc.) and then be re-seeded so that the lowest seeded winner will play the #1 team and so on. Teams will be reseeded after each round. In order to accommodate travel and practice time there will be 3 days between games for each round.
- NBA/WNBA playoffs will be seeded regardless of conference. It’s appalling that a 46-win Western conference team misses the playoffs when a 35-win Eastern conference team is a 6-seed.

Now, Professional football:
- I kind of like the new overtime rules, but I prefer the college ones. My tweak would be alternating possessions from the 35-yard line. Also, no field goals after the second OT and no 1-point PATs after the third OT.
- Widen the hash marks to that of the college game.
- Increase rosters to 60 players, a practice squad of 10, and game-day suit-ups to 55. It will create more opportunity for fringe players and decrease a few tough coaching decisions in late August.
- Decrease the play clock to 35 seconds.
- No more “icing the kicker” timeouts. The opposing team has until the offensive line is in position to call a timeout and it must be made by a player on the field, not the coach, 40 yards away.
- Change celebration penalties. Allow 20 seconds of celebration after touchdowns that can only be penalized for obscene gestures, taunting, and helmet removal. Any celebration other than clapping, high-fiving, hugging, and helmet- or butt-slapping after the time limit will be 15 yards on to the kick-off (unless the scoring team goes for two, then the defense can opt to have the penalty assessed on the conversion attempt). Any celebration other than the aforementioned exceptions on a non-TD play will be penalized 15 yards.
- To make touchdowns fair for rushers and receivers, in order to score a player must maintain possession of the ball after crossing the plane until he is down or forward progress is stopped
- Seed playoff teams based on record and conference and reseed after each round. No team may make the playoffs without an 8-8 record or better (no more 7-9 Seahawks hosting a playoff game).

College football:
- Use the same overtime rules as the pros.
- Defensive pass interference will be a spot foul, like in the NFL.
- Also like the NFL, a ball-carrier will be down when he is tackled or forced to the ground and his knee touches.
- Ditch the BCS, realign conferences based on my alignment (previous blog), and institute a 16-team playoff with the 10 conference champs and 6 highest ranked (in my four-rankings-averaged ranks) non-champs.

Soccer:
- To aid in improved officiating, add 3 officials to each contest. Keep the two sideline judges and add two judges behind each goal. The behind-goal judges will help with scoring plays, fouls in the box (on corner kicks, specifically), and calling the goalie infractions on penalty kicks. Also, add a second on-field referee, ideally so that one can be in front of the action and the other behind it.
- No offside penalty inside the 18-yard box.
- Treat penalties like hockey. How awesome would a 2-minute power play be?
- Also, penalize flopping… somehow.

I have no real desire to tweak hockey, NASCAR, MMA, or boxing. I’m not super knowledgeable about those sports, nor do I watch enough of them to be bother by their shortcomings.

One Month In

Well it’s been four weeks of fatherhood and I’m still alive… more importantly so is The Jet.
You probably have many questions about what it’s like to be a parent. At this point, I don’t have much advice, but I can tell you a few things:
- For the entire time you are pregnant everyone will be telling you how much you life will change and how it will never be the same. It’s annoying, but they are not wrong, so just nod and smile.
- Do not make plans for how to raise the child outside of the big questions like religion. You will be forced to change them anyways.
- Let your friends and family help you in any way they can. Do not be too proud to assume you can do it all by yourself.
- Value sleep more than anything else, except the baby.
- Encourage communication and patience with your partner. Do not try to “out do” the other parent or “pass off” responsibilities.
- You will have a much shorter temper. Remember this so that you know when you’ll have to just take a deep breath.
- It’s always okay to let a crying baby cry, especially if you’ve already tried all you can to appease it.

So far, that is what The Jet has taught me. Honestly, I’m really looking forward to being able to interact with him more.

The first half of the baseball season is over and I’d have to say the biggest surprise is the Pirate; just 1 game out of first in the NL Central. Every division race is close and no one has really separated themselves from the pack as far as the individual races go. Here are my predictions for the rest of the season:
- NL Playoffs: Braves over Giants, Phillies over Cardinals, Phillies over Braves
- AL Playoffs: Red Sox over Angels, Rangers over Tigers, Rangers over Red Sox
- NL Awards: Prince Fielder (MVP), Cole Hamels (Cy Young)
- AL Awards: Adrian Gonzalez (MVP), Justin Verlander (Cy Young), Eric Hosmer (ROY)

A word about the US Women’s Soccer team and women’s sports in general:
Most average sports fans think very little of women’s sports. Their typical complaints are about a lack of athleticism, shallow talent pools leading to weak competition, and general sexism. Maybe it’s easy for me to enjoy something my country dominates at, but for someone who is a fan of losing teams, this helps. Look at how dominate American female athletes are in most sports; basketball, soccer, hockey, tennis, and track & field.
Watching that amazing comeback yesterday in Germany showed me that the American spirit is personified in our international athletes, and no one showed it better than those women on the soccer team. I cannot say how impressive it is to beat the FIFA #3 team in on PKs, after scoring in the final 30 seconds on a 25-yard, crossing pass for a header. Quite possibly the greatest game I’ve ever watched, and the referees made the degree of difficulty go through the roof.

NBA Finals Preview

So the 2011 NBA Finals start tonight… five years ago pundits were touting this match-up as one of the worst ever (both in quality of teams and ratings possibilities), now the same match-up is carrying much more hype. Why?

Reason #1: LeBron James and The Decision.
Reason #2: The teams were much more successful this year and this is arguably the 5th, 6th, or 7th best match-up. (I’d say, Bulls-Lakers, Heat-Lakers, Celtics-Lakers, Heat-Thunder, Heat-Spurs, and Celtics-Spurs are the only bigger match-ups)
Reason #3: It’s a rematch.

Essentially, if it wasn’t for the dump LeBron took on Cleveland last summer, no one would really care about whether the Heat succeed or fail. Now, it’s a polarizing issue. People are either Heat fans or Maverick fans (note: I think I’m settling in as a Heat fan).

So, to add to the hype even more, here are my keys to the series (in reverse order of importance):

Key #1: The interior presence of the Heat frontcourt.
Most will probably say that the Thunder lost in the last round because their inexperience lead to them not being able to close Games 4 and 5. The honest truth is that they got outplayed inside. No offense to Nick Collison; but when he’s your crunch-time defensive option on Nowitzki, you’re in trouble. Ibaka and Perkins were non-factors, which can’t happen. Bosh, Haslem, Anthony, Jones, and Ilgalskus need to play big. Seriously, Tyson Chandler and Brendan Heywood aren’t chopped liver, but they aren’t championship centers either. Which brings me to…

Key #2: How will the Heat defend Nowitzki?
There are several possibilities, and none of which is going to work for a whole series. They could cover him straight up with their regular rotation (Bosh or his sub). They could stick Joel Anthony on him as much as possible. They could tether him to Ilgalskus and have Big Z sit on the bench all game. Or they could throw LeBron at him and see what happens. Ideally, I think they’ll throw the kitchen sink at him, change it up almost every possession and bring in gimmick line-ups like they did against Chicago. One problem, if they go big, Terry or Kidd will eat Mike Miller alive.

Key #3: How will the Mavericks defend LeBron?
Simple. It will hinge entirely on how much they want to play Stojakovic, especially if the Heat go big. Marion and Stevenson will have their hands full, but I believe they are capable of holding LeBron and Wade to 35 combined, which is respectable.

Key #4: The overall play of Chris Bosh (and to a lesser extent, Wade).
This one is also simple. The Mavericks may find a way to defend LeBron (or hold him under 20 points), but if the Big 3 go for 75+ combined, they can’t win. Bosh has been big in several games and Wade has upped his game in the clutch. As good as Nowitzki’s fade-away is, it won’t help him defend Bosh away from the paint. It’s a match-up that the Heat have to try to exploit.

My prediction… home team wins every game… Heat in seven.

Changing in the Winds

Mark this day down in your calendars, folks. Shallow Speculations as you know it is going to be changing its format. From this day forward I will no longer blog about sports… I will instead blog about sports AND being a new father.
My son, Benjamin Alan, is due to be born on June 12th and he will be my first child. I’m beyond the point of scared shitless and have moved into the impatient and cautiously confident stage. His room is painted, his crib is constructed, his car seat and stroller are ready, he has clothes… but we are currently lacking in diapers. It’s strange that Katie and I have had 3 baby showers thrown for us and have received only 2 packages of diapers… which is strange because that’s a good default gift.
Anyway, I thought I’d add some interest to my blog by discussing my experience as a father. From here on out, Benjamin will be referred to as The Jet because his namesake is the character Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez from the movie The Sandlot (Katie’s favorite character from her favorite movie).

Okay, on to the developments in sports.
First, I think I jinxed the Capitals by picking them to when the Stanley Cup each of the last three years. It’s as if I’ve cursed them. If my pick does carry a curse, then I’ll take the Sharks to win this year.
Second, despite the fact that the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs have all been eliminated, the NBA Playoffs have been pretty typical. A couple great games/performances and the remaining 4 teams could each win it all: The “superstar with a great supporting cast” team (Bulls), the “playing with house money” team (Mavericks), the “winning would destroy Cleveland” team (Heat), and the “more athletic at every position” team (Thunder). It’s conceivable that any team could win and it would make sense. The Bulls have the MVP, the Heat have two best players, the Mavericks are the well-coached, old guard, and the Thunder are the young, electric, athletic team. No story line or result would surprise me at this point.
Third, screw the lockout, I want some certainty in my football, damn it!
Finally, it is baseball season, I guess. My Royals have started 20-20, which is better than 10-30, so I’ll call it a success. They took 2 of 3 from the Yankees in New York and appear to be winning more close games than usual. I’ll be checking in on them regularly, but if they start to use that #1 rated farm system, they might be in the race longer than usual.