Tomorrow is the first official day of winter, but here in Columbia, it hit early. Snow and 30+ mph winds... oh joy. Not sure which is dislike the most, extreme winters or extreme summers. I'd rather be cold than hot, but I like driving with my windows down, too.
Everyone hunker down and enjoy the holidays. Next week's blog will be on Saturday, FYI.
NFL Week 16
- Colts over Chiefs... My LOCK of the week. I think the temporary injunction on ripping the Chiefs has ended, now it's just sad. I can't wait to see how they screw up the #1 draft pick.
- Patriots over Jaguars... the worst part about the Chiefs' situation? The Jaguars. It's never fun to have a team with clearer needs and a brighter (possibly) future breathing down your necks. I'd much rather be picking #2 this year... actually, I rather be at like 5-10, but that's because I have no idea who I would take.
- Broncos over Browns... knowing that the Patriots could steal their #2 seed at the first slip up will keep the New Mannings churning.
- Redskins over Eagles... this is where we find out how much "drive", "motivation", and "momentum" mean when need to win out. The 'Skins are hot, a roll to the #4 seed is likely, but they can't stop now.
- Packers over Titans... speaking of "can't stop now," can the Packers carry momentum (unlike last year) into the playoffs? Maybe playing out off the Wild Card round will actually help.
- Panthers over Raiders... anytime half your wins are against the Chiefs, you can't be trusted... although the Panthers did lose to the Chiefs.
- Bears over Cardinals... I'm glad Cutler's production dropped off, although I feel for Bears fans, he is approaching the cliff of QB despair... how quickly do you think the Cardinals trade for Sanchez? 10 minutes?
- Texans over Vikings... it's quite simple: stop Adrian Peterson for 60 minutes and lock down home field for the entire playoffs (seriously, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans, only the Falcons are close to having as easy a road trip).
- Saints over Cowboys... Brees loves Jerry's World. This Saints team would be in the playoffs if the NFL hadn't crippled them with unnecessary suspensions.
- Falcons over Lions... similar situation as the Texans, just keep from screwing up.
- Dolphins over Bills... not sure what to say. It's entirely possible we could finish with 3 rookie QBs winning 8 or more games... unheard of.
- Jets over Chargers... honestly, right now, I think Greg McElroy is a better QB than Phillip Rivers. What if the Jets and Chargers just trade QBs after this game? Sanchez close to home, and a fresh start for Rivers. Makes sense, right?
- Bengals over Steelers... most people assume that this is where the Steelers' playoff experience takes over. Not with their offensive line.
- Buccaneers over Rams... how do you respond to losing by 41? Good question. This game is a crap shoot.
- Giants over Ravens... you can't keep losing to decent teams and just expect to pick up the slack when it really matters, Ravens. I honestly think the Bengals win the AFC North. The Giants won't go quietly into the night either.
- Seahawks over 49ers... the Seahawks at home? The way they've been scoring? As much as I like the Niners, they weren't able to beat the Rams this year.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 144-79
Bowl Picks: 2-0 (29 pts)... I'm pretty sure I'll remember the 2012 New Mexico Bowl if not because I went from being "so very wrong" to "right" in 48 seconds of football. Great game.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
NFL 15 and Bowl Game Picks
NFL Week 15 Picks
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
2012 Final College Football Ranks... and NFL Week 14 Picks, I guess
I'll start with the less important stuff so it doesn't get burried under the rest of the blog. NFL Week 14 picks are first, then you will find my 2012 Final Rankings for College Football. The only rankings I will do all year. I will include some hypothetical BCS and playoff analysis as well.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Christmas Shopping Can Wait
One more week of great football, then it pares down a bit until the BCS games and NFL playoffs, you can wait to do your Christmas shopping until next week (unless you are already done because you're one of those crazies that shopped last Friday).
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Happy Thanksfootballing!
A ton of rivalry games being played this weekend for both the pros and amateurs. Rivarlies make predicting games VERY hard. You never know how the attitude of each team is going to affect the outcome. While, some rivalries can be very one-sided, if there is enough dislike or envy between the teams, you never know what the motivations are going to be.
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Time for Balling... a Little Basket Before Foot
Hey, guess what? Basketball season started last week.
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
The Election is Over. Can We Get Back to Football?
Thank god, the election is over. Let's move on.
College Week 11
Notre Dame over Boston College - I'm pretty sure the best word to describe what is going on with the Irish is "magical."
Kansas State over TCU - I watched some of last week's kSU/OSU game. It amazed me how many times the Kittycats ran the QB draw, and how many times it gained more than a few yards. Something strange is going on in Manhattan.
LSU over Mississippi State - the Bulldogs had the opportunity to establish themselves as regular contenders last week, but they got bulldozed by the Aggies. While LSU doesn't have that kind of offense, expect the Bulldogs to roll over and settle into mediocrity.
Alabama over Texas A&M - it's possible, this could be the game, I just can't bring myself to pick the Aggies.
Louisville over Syracuse - I can't trust the Cardinals, but they keep on winning and 'Cuse is not the team to derail them.
Oklahoma State over West Virginia - if the Cowboys can score on k-State, expect them to score TONS on WVU.
Wisconsin over Indiana - we spent a couple weeks dreaming of Duke making a conference championship, no it's time to think about Indiana in the Big10 championship... if they beat the Badgers.
Washington over Utah - no clue. The Huskies have played some good games.
Nebraska over Penn State - I'd love to take Penn State, but Nebraska's defense is too good.
Oregon State over Stanford - when both defenses are quite stout, take the more consistent offense, but this could go any way too.
Last Week: 8-2 (45 pts)
Season: 63-37 (380 pts)
NFL Week 10
Colts over Jaguars - I was tempted to take Blaine Gabbert here, because he beat the Colts 2 months ago and the Colts are on the road, but I think the Colts proved they aren't to be messed with.
Giants over Bengals - Giants on the road, coming off a disappointing loss? No contest.
Dolphins over Titans - Bud Adams may have called out the Titans organization, but the Dolphins are angry after last week's bummer.
Lions over Vikings - someone please put out an APB for Minnesota's defense.
Patriots over Bills - you're kidding right? I'll give the Bills a 10% chance.
Falcons over Saints - the Saints might be turning a corner, but the Falcons are still undefeated and sporting some serious confidence.
Buccaneers over Chargers - give Doug Martin the ball, watch the Chargers defense wilt.
Broncos over Panthers - I heard that Peyton Manning purchased 21 Papa John's Pizza franchises in Colorado last week. Yesterday, Colorado legalized marijuana. Luck or Peyton being Peyton?
Ravens over Raiders - I don't think the Ravens are strong, but I don't think the Raiders pose a threat to many teams not named the Chiefs.
Seahawks over Jets - Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game. I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing. Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game.
Cowboys over Eagles - which NFC East team is has more wasted talent?
49ers over Rams - my LOCK of the week. You might be asking why I didn't lock the Steelers. I'll explain later.
Texans over Bears - has to be the game of the week. I still don't trust Jay Cutler, not against the Texans defense.
Steelers over Chiefs - I would have locked the Steelers, but since this is Monday night, and this might be the last stand for any Chiefs coach, I'm giving them a puncher's chance. The Chiefs do crazy things on Monday nights.
Last Week: 12-2
Season: 84-47
College Week 11
Notre Dame over Boston College - I'm pretty sure the best word to describe what is going on with the Irish is "magical."
Kansas State over TCU - I watched some of last week's kSU/OSU game. It amazed me how many times the Kittycats ran the QB draw, and how many times it gained more than a few yards. Something strange is going on in Manhattan.
LSU over Mississippi State - the Bulldogs had the opportunity to establish themselves as regular contenders last week, but they got bulldozed by the Aggies. While LSU doesn't have that kind of offense, expect the Bulldogs to roll over and settle into mediocrity.
Alabama over Texas A&M - it's possible, this could be the game, I just can't bring myself to pick the Aggies.
Louisville over Syracuse - I can't trust the Cardinals, but they keep on winning and 'Cuse is not the team to derail them.
Oklahoma State over West Virginia - if the Cowboys can score on k-State, expect them to score TONS on WVU.
Wisconsin over Indiana - we spent a couple weeks dreaming of Duke making a conference championship, no it's time to think about Indiana in the Big10 championship... if they beat the Badgers.
Washington over Utah - no clue. The Huskies have played some good games.
Nebraska over Penn State - I'd love to take Penn State, but Nebraska's defense is too good.
Oregon State over Stanford - when both defenses are quite stout, take the more consistent offense, but this could go any way too.
Last Week: 8-2 (45 pts)
Season: 63-37 (380 pts)
NFL Week 10
Colts over Jaguars - I was tempted to take Blaine Gabbert here, because he beat the Colts 2 months ago and the Colts are on the road, but I think the Colts proved they aren't to be messed with.
Giants over Bengals - Giants on the road, coming off a disappointing loss? No contest.
Dolphins over Titans - Bud Adams may have called out the Titans organization, but the Dolphins are angry after last week's bummer.
Lions over Vikings - someone please put out an APB for Minnesota's defense.
Patriots over Bills - you're kidding right? I'll give the Bills a 10% chance.
Falcons over Saints - the Saints might be turning a corner, but the Falcons are still undefeated and sporting some serious confidence.
Buccaneers over Chargers - give Doug Martin the ball, watch the Chargers defense wilt.
Broncos over Panthers - I heard that Peyton Manning purchased 21 Papa John's Pizza franchises in Colorado last week. Yesterday, Colorado legalized marijuana. Luck or Peyton being Peyton?
Ravens over Raiders - I don't think the Ravens are strong, but I don't think the Raiders pose a threat to many teams not named the Chiefs.
Seahawks over Jets - Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game. I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing. Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game.
Cowboys over Eagles - which NFC East team is has more wasted talent?
49ers over Rams - my LOCK of the week. You might be asking why I didn't lock the Steelers. I'll explain later.
Texans over Bears - has to be the game of the week. I still don't trust Jay Cutler, not against the Texans defense.
Steelers over Chiefs - I would have locked the Steelers, but since this is Monday night, and this might be the last stand for any Chiefs coach, I'm giving them a puncher's chance. The Chiefs do crazy things on Monday nights.
Last Week: 12-2
Season: 84-47
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