Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Round 1 Picks/Analysis

Here we go. I'm picking every game as it comes up. Don't worry about my "office pool" brackets, I've got four of them and each is way different from the other (what? Kansas losing to Lehigh is insane?). It would take way to much to explain the convoluted process I went through.

Okay, let's go each seed match-up at a time. Knock out the easy ones first...
1 vs. 16:
Since a 16 has NEVER beaten a 1, Kentucky over ETSU, Duke over Ark-PB, Syracuse over Vermont, and (I wish I could go against history) Kansas over Lehigh. I don't need to say much else here.
2 vs. 15:
West Virginia over Morgan State, Villanova over Robert Morris (who has a player named Rob Robinson), K-State over North Texas, and Ohio State over UCSB. None of these 15s are good enough to do what Hampton did to Iowa State in '01. None of these 2s are as overrated as Iowa State was that year.
3 vs. 14:
UNM over Montana, Baylor over SHSU, Pitt over Oakland, and Georgetown over Ohio. Nope, still no serious analysis for these four, but the most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico.
4 vs. 13:
Wisconsin over Wofford... easy, Wofford has one scorer and 'Sconsin is the best defensive team in a defensive conference.
Purdue over Siena... stop that Siena Bandwagon before it goes right off a cliff. Just because Purdue doesn't have the best big man in the Big Ten any more doesn't mean their length and defense won't frustrate a mid-major who's been reading too much of their own press.
Murray State over Vanderbilt... here's a bandwagon I can get on. The Racers play a pressing, turn-you-over style and Vandy has not handled pressure defense well (other than when they beat Mizzou).
Maryland over Houston... the Cougs are lucky to beat here and Maryland is truly the class of the ACC.
5 vs. 12:
Cornell over Temple... when an Ivy team makes the tournament three years in a row, you have to respect them. Cornell can win low scoring games (because they have to in the Ivy) so Temple's defense shouldn't phase them too much.
Texas A&M over Utah St.... Aggies versus Aggies? The Aggies are a trendy pick, but I think the Aggies' defense will be enough to snuff out the Aggies' mojo.
Butler over UTEP... I'll take experience over "hot prospect" talent.
Michigan St. over NMSU... the Spartans are not in good shape, but look for them to get by the surprising Aggies (hey, there's that word again).
6 vs. 11:
Marquette over Washington... look at it this way, Marquette has like 8 losses by less than 5 points, so if it's close take the Huskies... but it won't be close.
ODU over Notre Dame... whether or not Harangody is back, I think the Irish used up all their energy getting in the tournament.
Xavier over Minnesota... Gophers are in the same boat as the Irish, only it's a smaller boat.
SDSU over Tennessee... Aztecs are hot, they've played a bunch of tough games and Tennessee is not the same team that beat Kansas.
7 vs. 10:
Missouri over Clemson... I think the motto at Clemson is "Underachieve or Die." On a serious note, Mizzou misses Justin Safford like Jason Alexander misses Seinfeld. Here's hoping Mizzou doesn't miss 3-pointers in the same way.
Richmond over St. Mary's... it took the Gaels three chances to beat Gonzaga and Richmond is possibly the best 7-seed ever.
BYU over Florida... remember, Florida would have been out of my bracket. BYU is probably the best statistical team in the region.
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma St.... look at all that wasted talent on G-Tech, you'd think they'd have challenged Duke in the ACC. The Cowboys rode a sweep of the state of Kansas into the tournament and is slightly over-seeded. Should be very close.
8 vs. 9:
Texas over Wake Forest... as the tournament approached and these two were still considered locks (they combined to go 13-14 since my birthday), I thought they were locks for first round exits. Then the committee matched them up... DAMN! Oh well, maybe the former #1 will pull it out.
Lousiville over Cal... don't be surprised if this is a blow-out... either way.
Florida St. over Gonzaga... I'll take the #1 shooting defense in the country over an underwhelming, over-hyped, no-longer-cinderella west coast team.
Northern Iowa over UNLV... watch out for the Panthers. Seriously, if the Jayhawks are over-confident (and they will be), they might exit early to great mid-major.

NOTE: I've been watching some NIT action the last two nights and... DAMN, these games are just as exciting (if not more). Seriously, St. John's and Memphis had 16 made 3-pointers and 6 ally-oops at halftime!

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