I'll start with the less important stuff so it doesn't get burried under the rest of the blog. NFL Week 14 picks are first, then you will find my 2012 Final Rankings for College Football. The only rankings I will do all year. I will include some hypothetical BCS and playoff analysis as well.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
1 comment:
So... essentially you'd have a 12 team playoff to get to the same Championship game we have now? Very confusing - I say let's leave the traditional bowl system alone, do away with the "national champtionship game" in its entirety. Kill the BCS, and go back to the good old days where we just had the bowls, that'd be super.
Additionally,I like the Packers pick, but that, as awlays, should be the lock. Additionally, with regard to the Chargers/Steelers game - that's a risky "lock". I'm interested to see how good Big Ben is when he comes back from that injury. Additionally, with the arrival of DX, the chargers offense has some life.
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