Thursday, December 17, 2009

Week 15 NFL Picks

Colts over Jaguars... REST YOUR STARTERS, please. No matter what the score, take them out by the fourth quarter, you'll be better off come playoff time.

Saints over Cowboys... Is it December? Yes. Am I picking against the Cowboys? Yes.

Chiefs over Browns... The Chiefs are truly the better team, I mean they both beat the Steelers, but KC looked better doing it.

Patriots over Bills... Patriots are in danger of losing their division lead, but I don't think the Bills are the team to take them down.

Cardinals over Lions... The Lions are going to need 10 Cardinal turnovers to pull this one out.

Titans over Dolphins... Here's the upset special. I don't buy the Dolphins are better without the Wildcat. I think Tennessee's problems were more than Kerry Collins... and I think they are fixed even with him under center.

Texans over Rams... Fortunately for the Titans, they travel to STL for the Rams. Unfortunately, they're still an 8-8 also-ran to the Colts.

Jets over Falcons... Almost didn't cut it last week for the Falcons, and I think a Sanchez-less Jets are a decent (possibly playoff) team.

Eagles over 49ers... The Eagles look pretty complete, the Niners were handed the game last week. Don't expect 7 turnovers from Philly. (At least one half of my NFC title game pick is looking good.)

Ravens over Bears... Battle of the underachievers goes to the Ravens. Some day Joe Flacco will win a Super Bowl, probably not with the Ravens.

Chargers over Bengals... R.I.P. Chris Henry. Unfortunately, I don't see the Bengals rallying around a guy like him. His production will be sorely missed, but not his attitude. Also, the Chargers are the anti-Cowboys, they don't lose in December.

Broncos over Raiders... I would have give the Silver and Black a chance with Bruce Gradkowski, but they probably won't score 10 with Russell back. (Over-Under on Brandon Marshall catches this week? Whatever it is, take the under, Raiders have good cover corners.)

Seahawks over Buccaneers... Almost took the upset, but I don't think Seattle's a big enough team for Josh Freeman to pull a "I'm terrible but I can win when I'm given zero chance against a power team."

Vikings over Panthers... If you are Brad Childress, do you rest Brett after a quarter? I mean he is one good hit to the head away from retirement. (Or another fake retirement.)

Giants over Redskins... By Monday morning the Giants will be 1/2 game behind the Cowboys. I think that's motivation enough to destroy their rivals on the big stage and retake control of the six seed.

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 142-66

Thursday, December 10, 2009

NFL Power Ranks and Week 14 Picks

With only four weeks left in the season, I thought I'd break down the teams in a power ranking way (from the bottom up):

Septic Tankers:

32: Browns (1-11) - You have to wonder if they'd have just settled on Quinn from the beginning, maybe they'd be a more respectable 1-11... maybe 2-10... at least ahead of the Rams.
31: Rams (1-11) - Proof positive that an elite running back is only one piece of the puzzle.

Bad with a Hint of Promise:
30: Buccaneers (1-11) - At least they've settled on a quarterback and are working in some young talent, they only need a couple wily veteran free agents and they'll be better than the Panthers.
29: Chiefs (3-9) - Only in this spot because of their coach is okay with losing, despite the volume of his voice. They were resilient in their 3 wins.
28: Redskins (3-9) - Speaking of coaches okay with losing... they should have gone for the jugular when they were inside the 10 with a 7-point lead on the highest scoring team in the league. 30 points is not enough against a team that averages 31.
27: Lions (2-10) - While Stafford may never be an elite quarterback, and he can never erase the memory of 0-16, but he might eventually make them forget about this 2-14 season.

Bad-Luck Bad:
26:
Bills (4-8) - You have to think they'd have beaten the Jets if they were not distracted by the bustling Toronto night life.
25: Bears (5-7) - Everybody gets injuries, but only the Bears get Mr. Grumpyface.
24: Raiders (4-8) - Another case of "if we'd have only gone with this back-up quarterback who hasn't proved anything yet sooner, we'd have a few more wins."
23: 49ers (5-7) - If it wasn't for the Crabtree Curse, that 3-1 start would have translated to a 10-6 season.

Who Are We?:
22:
Seahawks (5-7) - All I know about the 'Hawks is that they've worn some bright green jerseys at some point this year.
21: Panthers (5-7) - So, Jake Delhomme throws 45 interceptions in the first couple of games, then torches the Cardinals for 4 touchdowns, who is this guy??
20: Texans (5-7) - We are the Texans. We can beat the Colts, maybe... sometimes... if we play a perfect game... hell, who are we kidding, we probably couldn't beat the Longhorns.

Falling From Grace (FAST!):
19:
Jets (6-6) - Great defense, new coach, first-round-pretty-boy quarterback, and the relief of not having to pay Brett Favre's healthcare bills... sounds like a formula for winning. Except they're the Jets.
18: Falcons (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
17: Ravens (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
16:
Steelers (6-6) - Big Ben gets big knee to head... seems like the whole team took a knee to the head in Kansas City.

In the Chase for No Reason:
15:
Jaguars (7-5) - Is it an easy schedule? Is it the lack of pressure from the empty home stadium? Is it the turqoise jerseys?
14: Dolphins (6-6) - No Wildcat. No gimmicks. 8-8 seems very possible.
13: Titans (5-7) - Risen from the dead at 0-6, only to play the Colts like zombies in pads.

NFC (L)easters:
12:
Cowboys (8-4) - It's December. If they didn't have this reputation, they'd be top 8.
11: Giants (7-5) - Their sevens wins are over the 'Skins, Chiefs, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, and the Cowboys twice. So they are the Kings of Crap.

Leaders of the Bad Pack:
10:
Cardinals (8-4) - That freakish loss to the Panthers is keeping them from being for real.
9: Patriots (7-5) - Trouble brewing in Boston. But playoffs are still in their future.
8: Eagles (8-4) - Nothing like a young, fast receiving core to rejuvenate Donovan's chances. Unfortunately they aren't as consistant as they need to be (see loss to Raiders).

Fringe Contenders
7:
Broncos (8-4) - Who'd have thought Kyle Orton, a rookie head coach, a pieced together defense, and last season's collapse could lead to this?
6: Packers (8-4) - Monday's game showed us the evolution of the defense and the best fantasy quarterback is about to blow up (statistically).
5: Bengals (9-3) - They deserve their own category of "Contenders with no identity." Just goes to show you what a group of athletes can do when they stay out of jail.
4: Chargers (9-3) - If Norv Turner wasn't their coach, they'd be the favorites in the AFC.

Great, but Figured Out
3:
Vikings (10-2) - Teams know how to beat the Vikings. If they run into the Saints or Colts, expect the opposition to stack the box, run up the score, and force Favre into a marathon. He's great, but he's a amateur jogger, not a Olympic distance runner.

Toss Up Champs
1b:
Saints (12-0) - That crowd. That defense. That quarterback. It's like Revenge of the Rejected and Ignored. Only not the true number one because of last week. They are more likely to try hard for 16-0 and thusly slip up and they have less room to mess around with.
1a: Colts (12-0) - I can't crown Peyton and the boys yet, but he's sure trying to convince me.

Picks:
Steelers over Browns
Saints over Falcons
Packers over Bears
Colts over Broncos
Bills over Chiefs
Jets over Buccaneers
Dolphins over Jaguars
Ravens over Lions
Texans over Seahawks
Vikings over Bengals
Patriots over Panthers
Titans over Rams
Raiders over Redskins
Chargers over Cowboys
Eagles over Giants
Cardinals over 49ers

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 129-63

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Pre-Bowl Rankings

Here are my "BCS" Rankings:

1: Alabama (13-0)
2: Texas (13-0)
3: Boise State (13-0)
4: Cincinnati (12-0)
5: Texas Christian (12-0)
6: Florida (12-1)
7: Georgia Tech (11-2)
8: Central Michigan (11-2)
9: Oregon (10-2)
10: Ohio State (10-2)
11: Iowa (10-2)
12: Penn State (10-2)
13: Brigham Young (10-2)
14: Houston (10-3)
15: Virginia Tech (9-3)
16: Miami (FL) (9-3)
17: Louisiana State (9-3)
18: West Virginia (9-3)
19: Pittsburgh (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Wisconsin (9-3)
22: Utah (9-3)
23: Nebraska (9-4)
24: East Carolina (9-4)
25: Arizona (8-4)
26: Oregon State (8-4)
27: Stanford (8-4)
28: Southern Cal (8-4)
29: California (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Clemson (8-5)
36: Georgia (7-5)
37: Oklahoma (7-5)

Honorable Mention: Troy (9-3), Mid Tennessee State (9-3), Temple (9-3), Ohio (9-4), Boston College (8-4), Rutgers (8-4), Navy (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Fresno State (8-4), Nevada (8-4).

So if we took the 11 conference Champions and 5 other teams for a 16-team playoff and used my rankings to determine the 5 at-large bids and seeding, here's how the tournament would look (number represents rank not seed):
#1 Alabama vs. Troy
#8 Central Michigan vs. #9 Oregon
#5 TCU vs. #12 Penn State
#4 Cincinnati vs. #13 BYU
#3 Boise State vs. #14 Houston
#6 Florida vs. #11 Iowa
#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs. #24 East Carolina
NOTE: The only two conference champs outside the top-16 were East Carolina and Troy, so they are the 15th and 16th seeds respectively.

Odds are we'd still end up with Texas and Alabama for the title. My true proposal would be to realign the conferences so we had ten 12-team conferences playing all eleven conference games, then do the 16-team tournament. But more on that another time.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

NFL Week 13 Picks

I intended to get this out earlier this morning, but a trip to the grocery store and the Lord of the Rings marathon on TNT really did not help my productivity this morning.

Eagles over Falcons... Falcons are mediocre, the Eagles are playoff worthy.
Bears over Rams... this is the chance for Jay Cutler to prove he can win, he may be a bust if he can't win this kind of game.
Bengals over Lions... can the Bengals really challenge the Colts and Patriots?
Colts over Titans... one streak is going to end, and I'm not ready to bet against Peyton.
Broncos over Chiefs... speaking of streaks ending, at least the Chiefs had a winning streak this year (and they still have the Bills and Browns on the schedule).
Saints over Redskins... there is nothing these Saints cannot do, they could even beat the Colts.
Panthers over Buccaneers... the battle for least good in the NFC South.
Jaguars over Texans... followed by the battle for least good in the AFC South.
Steelers over Raiders... no cure for a losing streak like the Raiders.
Patriots over Dolphins... there is a lot of promise in this Dolphins team, but without Ronnie Brown, they are mediocre.
Chargers over Browns... Brown is the color of poo!
49ers over Seahawks... Seattle is not going to run the ball like they did last week on the good Niners defense.
Cowboys over Giants... time to show there will not be a December slump for the Cowboys this year... maybe they can use some of the luck from the Longhorns.
Vikings over Cardinals... because of the team around him, I don't think Favre will slip up quite yet.
Ravens over Packers... sorry Pack fans, I think the Ravens are rolling.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 120-56

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Tonight's NFL Pick and Tiger

Yes, Tiger Woods is now in the same boat as Kobe Bryant. I don't think we should make role models out of men who cheat on their wives. I know plenty of them do it, and it does not mean they cannot be playing sports just because of a mistake, I just think that we could pick better athletes for our children to admire than the ones who commit sin.

Tonight's Jets v. Bills game is a tough call. No real home field advantage and a couple of struggling teams trying to salvage the season. I'll take the smarter quarterback... Fitzpatrick's Harvard education over Sanchez's early USC exit.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

College Championship Week

Next to the last one, enjoy the ride folks.

1: Alabama (12-0)
2: Florida (12-0)
3: Texas (12-0)
4: Texas Christian (12-0)
5: Boise State (12-0)
6: Cincinnati (11-0)
7: Georgia Tech (10-2)
8: Ohio State (10-2)
9: Iowa (10-2)
10: Penn State (10-2)
11: Brigham Young (10-2)
12: Houston (10-2)
13: Central Michigan (10-2)
14: Oregon (9-2)
15: Pittsburgh (9-2)
16: Virginia Tech (9-3)
17: Miami (FL) (9-3)
18: Louisiana State (9-3)
19: Nebraska (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Utah (9-3)
22: Southern Cal (8-3)
23: Oregon State (8-3)
24: California (8-3)
25: West Virginia (8-3)
26: Wisconsin (8-3)
27: Rutgers (8-3)
28: Stanford (8-4)
29: Clemson (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Arizona (7-4)
36: Oklahoma (7-5)

Honorable Mention: Ohio (9-3), Temple (9-3), Troy (9-3), Middle Tennessee State (9-3), Boston College (8-4), Navy (8-4), East Carolina (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Nevada (8-4).

If all is right in the BCS world, and things continue to be "smooth" for the system, these things will happen this weekend:
- Pittsburgh will beat Cincinnati
- Texas will crush Nebraska
- Boise State will slip
- Oregon will beat Oregon State
Then all the pieces will be in place... SEC vs. Big 12 for the title, only one non-AQ team in the BCS, two Big Ten teams, only one other undefeated team to "claim" a shot at the title, and no "mediocre" conference champs (unless you consider 2-loss Ohio State, Pitt, and Oregon mediocre, which they are not, I was more talking about Nebraska or Oregon State).

The College Pick 'Em Challenge has ended, but this week I'm taking Texas, Alabama, Boise State, Oregon, and Pittsburgh in the relevant games.

Last Week: 4-6 (23 pts.) OUCH!
Season: 86-44 (506 pts., 96th percentile)