Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Happy Birthday, Dad!

It's my dad's @#th birthday, so this post is in honor of him.

College Week 5
Florida State over South Florida - It will be interesting to see how good the 'Noles are when they actually play a defense. Not sure that will happen until a BCS game.
Ohio State over Michigan State -  A defensive battle is expected in this game, so I'm taking the team that has looked much more "put together" on offense.
Clemson over Boston College - It would be like Clemson to have a let down game this week, but I think they've turned a corner as a program and probably won't lose another game all year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - I'm really hoping this is where Wisconsin turns it around and gets their act together, but the Huskers will be too fast on offense and without Monte Ball, the Badgers are weak.
Texas A&M over Arkansas - Also hoping this where Arkansas turns it around, but I really doubt that will happen this year.
Texas over Oklahoma State - The Cowboys' defense has been suspect lately... the Longhorns' has not been.
Arizona State over California - They've played very well at home, and sketchy on the road, but Cal has played sketchy everywhere.
West Virginia over Baylor - First one to 50 wins.
Penn State over Illinois - Some might think this is a soft upset pick, those people must respect Nathan Scheelhaase as a football player (I don't, because he played at Rockhurst and chose Illinois).
Cincinnati over Virginia Tech - Here's the real upset pick, the Hokies have not stopped the run like they used to and Cincy can run the ball with the best of them.

Last Week: 6-4 (39 pts)
Season: 22-18 (143 pts)

NFL Week 4
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on the controversy that is the quality of officiating the replacement referees are providing. You know something is wrong when it's the first topic of conversation the 4 nurses I work with wanted to discuss when I walked in Tuesday morning. Not that they are clueless about sports, but it's the first time I can recall any of them having anything to say about the NFL at all.
And that's why this won't be an easy fix. When we watch (or talk about, or tweet about, or call in to radio shows about) the NFL, they get money in some way, shape or form. It is a multi-billion dollar corporation, and the big wigs (the owners and their puppet Goddell) only care about the bottom line. If it makes money, great; if it loses money, absolutely not... even if the idea makes total sense and makes the fans happy. As long as people show up for games, watch them on TV, and buy NFL appearall the 1% of football society will win. And they won't change a thing.
Without losing the sport we all love, there is not much we can to protest or affect any change. I suggest we just hold on tight and wait for the ride to be over.
On a side note, I think it's absolutely hilarious how up in arms football fans are... but really, are we ever NOT complaining about officiating in football? I predict that when the real referees come back, there will just as many blown calls and complaining from the fans (maybe not as much mutual, non-biased complaints, but still).
As far as the specific play at the end of the Packers/Seahawks game, I'm just shaking my head. Since I don't really have a horse in that race, I wasn't particularly mad. I do think that the main problem was the missed pass interference call... I'm pretty sure I would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights when trying to make the right call on the catch... but I'd like to think I'd have thrown the flag on the Seahawks there. What I try to think about is how would I feel if I were a die-hard Seahawks fan? I'm sure I would be justifying all the nuiances of the rule book and skewing all my arguments to defend the touchdown call. But would I know deep down that I was wrong? Probably not.

Ravens over Browns - My LOCK of the week. What's the over/under on Weeden turnovers? Five?
Falcons over Panthers - This one is a case of pick the undefeated team if your not 100% sure of the upset.
Patriots over Bills - Anyone who thinks the Patriots are capable of going 1-3 should be institutionalized.
Lions over Vikings - I don't think they have the talent to pull off consecutive huge upsets, but the Vikings are scary. The Lions deserve to win an easy one eventually.
Chargers over Chiefs - HA! The Chiefs won the battle of attrition last week with SIX field goals. It's never good when you score 3 touchdowns and give up 1, but still lose. You can put as much optimistic spin on that game as you want. At no point did Cassel look like a quality QB, and the Chiefs defense benefitted from some ridiculous Saints play calling (9 passes in your last 9 plays when you just needed to run the clock out?????).
Rams over Seahawks - Here's my upset pick. Seahawk fans are on borrowed time until they lose.
49ers over Jets - Either the Vikings are going to look pretty good, or the Dolphins aren't going to look as bad.
Texans over Titans - Another case of picking the undefeated team because I can't find a good reason to pick against them.
Broncos over Raiders - It's awfully convenient that Denver plays their home division games early... less cold weather for Manning's fused neck.
Cardinals over Dolphins - Again, I can't go against the undefeated team, but I'm not so confident that they won't just fall apart here like they're gauranteed to down the road.
Bengals over Jaguars - Gabbert had less than 100 yards passing in a win last week (80% of it on one throw). His burnout in Jacksonville will be a bonfire.
Packers over Saints - I would hate to be the Saints right now. There is no way I'd want to play a pissed off Packers team (especially Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers). By the way, the loser of this game is probably out of the playoffs.
Buccaneers over Redskins - At some point there will be plenty of room on the RG3 bandwagon... I'm staying on but realistically understanding how limited the team is right now. (This was the toughest pick by the way)
Eagles over Giants - They did beat the Ravens.
Cowboys over Bears - The battle of the most overrated QBs (other than Matt Cassel) will go the way of which is less of a pussy.

Stat of Week 3: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Russell Westbrook have combined for 5 wins... Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have combined for 3 wins. Crazy, no?

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 27-21

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Hey, It's Wednesday! Need Some Football?

I was so oversaturated with college football after Saturday's crazy day, that I didn't watch ANY NFL games on Sunday. All the professional footbal I saw this weekend was the first two drives of the Denver/Atlanta game. Needless to say, I'm going to push through and continue to bring you strong and sometimes silly analysis.

College Week 4
Undeafeted Teams that are For Real:
Georgia - it's entirely possible that they could go undefeated, with no LSU or 'Bama on their schedule. Take it from someone who saw them in person... the defense is smart and deep and if the offense cleans up the silly penalties (like 6 false starts against Mizzou) they will eventually wear you down.
Florida State - while they haven't faced a quality opponent, they've been getting done with execution not luck. Get by Clemson and they could cruise to the BCS.
Ohio (as For Real as a MAC team can get) - they should go undefeated; which I hope will lead to a BCS at-large, but they might not make it above #15. I just know I wouldn't want to play them.

Undefeated Teams that are Kidding Themselves:
Stanford - the upset of USC was great, but it was at home, and USC is not deep, and USC loses a September Pac12 game every year. The offense can succeed and the defense made some great adjustments, but I forsee a loss or three (Oregon, maybe Cal and Washington).
Florida - unless they start leading games at halftime. Comeback wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee are not things you put on a resume, even if they're on the road.
UCLA - yes, they beat Nebraska, but we all know how fake the BigTen is now. They gave up a ton of points and yards to Rice, I can't trust them until they are in the Pac12 title game again.

Winless Teams that I'm Loving See Lose:
Colorado - life after the Big12 is going quite poorly, wouldn't you say?
Wyoming - still mad Dave Christiansen left Mizzou with Dave Yost as offensive coordinator. Katie will tell you that Yost gets more of my jeers than any other Mizzou player.
Houston - only because they might be the first team to go from 13-1 to 0-12 in less than 12 months.

Picks:
Georgia over Vanderbilt - for the aforementioned reason that the Dawgs are "For Real"
Florida State over Clemson - ditto, and because it's Clemson on national TV is never good.
Wake Forest over Army - might be the greatest turnaround in one week ever... from losing by 50+ to winning by 50+
Michigan over Notre Dame - the reason why I didn't mention the Irish in either section above is because of their schedule. This game, plus UNC, USC, Stanford... no idea if they are going to be 10-2 or 4-8 (and there is no way they hold Michigan to less than 21 points)
Minnesota over Syracuse - raise your hand if you care about this game in any way
Rutgers over Arkansas - I was tempted to lean with Arkansas because they might rally around the "controversy" of their QB's comments, but Rutgers' defense has been (fantasy points-wise) on par with Alabama.
Connecticut over Western Michigan - the directional-Michigan teams are struggling this year
UCLA over Oregon State - not much data to work with for the Beavers, and Wisconsin is looking like the biggest disappointment so far.
Georgia Tech over Miami-FL - k-State ran all over the Canes... guess what Georgia Tech LOVES to do?
South Carolina over Missouri - so, I make this pick against my boys (with the least amount of confidence) on one condition: the rumor that James Franklin missed the Arizona State game because his shoulder pain was too much and he refused a pain-killer injection for religious reasons has become more factual as the days progress. More importantly, the rumor has it that Franklin no longer has the full support of the locker room (some coaches, some prominent players). If this is true, and he starts against the Gamecocks, this is bad. If it's not true, and he starts, they have a shot. If he doesn't start and Yost limits the playbook for Berkstresser again, they are cooked. If he doesn't start, and Berkstresser can unleash his arm, they might win.

Last Week: 6-4 (42 pts.)
Season: 16-14 (104 pts.)

NFL Week 3
Not enough data for me to do any analysis. I'm not trying to fill 8 hours of programming with NFL analysis like some networks, so I make no promises until week 6 or so.

Picks:
Giants over Panthers - still putting faith in the Giants' defense for now
Bears over Rams - I actually tossed around the upset pick for a while, this is the Rams chance to be relevant, either way
Bills over Browns - thoroughly enjoying the Brandon Weeden disaster/era in Cleveland so far
Cowboys over Buccaneers - I may never fully trust Tony Romo as a starting QB, but it's even harder to trust Josh Freeman
Lions over Titans - they struggled through two games against the NFC West, but this is the Jake Locker-led Titans we're talking about
Colts over Jaguars - it is not hard for me to say "go with the better QB" for this game... Luck is MUCH better than Gabbert
Jets over Dolphins - thoroughly enjoying the Ryan Tannehill disaster/era in Miami so far
49ers over Vikings - the Niners are halfway through demolishing the NFC North
Saints over Chiefs - really? I'm pretty sure 0-16 is a possibility as long as Cassel is playing
Bengals over Redskins - either the Rams offense is better than the Saints offense, or RG3 has been figured out, I'm going with the latter
Cardinals over Eagles - Kevin Kolb has much to prove in this game, if the over/under for TOs in this game is less than 6, take the over
Falcons over Chargers - with as many seniors as Mizzou has on defense this year, it might be possible for the Falcons to draft all of them and just turn thier defense into a pro-Tigers team
Texans over Broncos - I'm still 6 wins away from believing in Manning's new neck (although it's holding up nicely in all his new commercials)
Steelers over Raiders - I'm quietly hoping that the Raiders are actually worse than the Chiefs
Ravens over Patriots - strong possibility the Pats will be 1-2... maybe the Mayans were right
Packers over Seahawks - the Seahawks are a more likely 1-2 team

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 17-15

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Football Wednesdays Week 2

Well my first 4-day, 4-sport weekend extravaganza did not go well. Thursday night softball team lost 14-13 after beginning the bottom of the 7th up 13-8 (I also struck out, which always sucks). Friday night kickball got rained out. The Tigers lost to Georgia and then the Chiefs lost to the Falcons.

College Week 2 Wrap-Up
The Unexpected:
The Pac12 (excluding Colorado) - Oregon State over Wisconsin, UCLA over Nebraska, Arizona State over Illinois, Arizona over Oklahoma State... now if only they won't beat up on each other and end up with like seven solid 7-5 teams.
Louisiana - LSU dominated Washington, UL-Lafayette is 2-0, and UL-Monroe pulled off the upset of the year (so far) by beating Arkansas. The Warhawks are going to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt.

The Expected:
Rice over Kansas - If ESPN had given me the chance to pick this game I would have called it. Sure, it's Kansas and I'll always pick against them... but Rice scored a bunch in a loss to UCLA in Week 1 and Kansas was (as I said) unimpressive against South Dakota State.
Mizzou - Yes, I picked them, but that was to show them some confidence. Would I have rather watched Georgia control the game, lead by 7+ the whole way, and never give the crowd any hope? NO. But it was quite predictable (and frustrating) to watch the Tigers lose because they didn't execute, got tired, and stopped playing with urgency. Also, as usual, Pinkel and Yost got out-coached in the second half when their players were ready to pull off the upset (see every loss to a top-10 team over the last 5 years).

The Picks:
Alabama over Arkansas - worst case scenario for a team that is reeling from a huge upset: playing the defending champs who appear to have a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State over California - we'll have to see how BigTen play goes, but pretty strong offensive start for the Buckeyes, now they play a team with very low expectations after two weeks.
Florida over Tennessee - not buying the hype, while Florida's win was over a team making a career out of blowing 2nd-half leads, they are the better team.
Missouri over Arizona State - this is a must win, rebound from a deflating loss and get some momentum for the most important game of the season (at South Carolina).
Texas over Mississippi - not too sure if Texas has rebounded yet, if they beat Oklahoma, then we'll talk.
Michigan State over Notre Dame - dominant defense will win this game, the over/under has to be less than 25.
BYU over Utah - the Holy War is always a great game.
USC over Stanford - not going to pick against the Trojans for a long time.
Louisville over North Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater could be just like Brad Smith.
Navy over Penn State - not going to pick Penn State for along time.

Last Week: 4-6 (28 pts.)
Season: 10-10 (62 pts.)

NFL Picks: (It's too early and I saw exactly 1 minute of NFL games this weekend)
Packers over Bears - Rodgers will draw Cutler into a gunslinger battle and guess who's winning that one.
Bills over Chiefs - I might not pick the Chiefs again this year.
Bengals over Browns - the Browns need to stop trying to draft a quarterback and get one in free agency, forget spending the money, use it on the role players.
Vikings over Colts - we are not far from the Colts becoming a dangerous team.
Raiders over Dolphins - we are quite far from Tannehill becoming a dangerous quarterback.
Patriots over Cardinals - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between convincing-ness of wins?
Giants over Buccaneers - my Eliminator pick of the week.
Ravens over Eagles - you beat the Browns by 1??
Saints over Panthers - which is worse, being upset by Tampa or Washington?
Texans over Jaguars - I predict Blaine Gabbert will be out of Jacksonville by season's end.
Redskins over Rams - RG3 is two more games like last week away from drawing me into the hype.
Cowboys over Seahawks - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between how their fanbases are feeling right now?
Steelers over Jets - were the Jets playing rope-a-dope during the preseason? NAH.
Chargers over Titans - we are still four months away from the Chargers letting their fans down by exiting the playoffs early.
49ers over Lions - recognize: one team was well prepared and beat a strong opponent convincingly, the other needed a late drive to survive one of the league's weakest teams.
Falcons over Broncos - still not picking Manning for a few more weeks.

Last Week: 8-8

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Weekly Wednesday Football #1

In order to keep from taking too much time away from work and family, and yet still keep everyone informed as to my ridiculous opinions about football, I've decided to merge my weekly football columns into one on Wednesday. A brief rap-up of the week before and my picks/analysis for the coming week will be coming at you every Wednesday (maybe some Thursdays), so feel free to check in as often as you like.

College Week 1 Wrap-Up
Teams that REALLY impressed me:
Alabama - As Martin Lawrence once said "DAMN, Gina!" Could the Tide have left any less doubt that they are going to defend their national title to the death? Of course, Michigan probably should have started ranked between 15 and 22 because of their weak defense, but DAMN that was a beat down.
Clemson - Auburn may no longer be the top of the SEC West, but Clemson, minus their biggest playmaker, showed they are for real. A neutral site win against a BCS team on national TV? That doesn't sound like the Clemson we all know and love.
Baylor - Can't write these guys off yet. They still scored, they played decent defense (for once), and more importantly, there appears to be a air of success floating around Waco.

Teams that were totally unimpressive:
Penn State - You can make all the excuses in the world, but a Big 10 team should never lose at home to a MAC team. For the players and their fans, I hope they get on the right track. They get to play Indiana, right?
Colorado - The move to the Pac12 was widely panned here in Missouri, as we'd seen their football and basketball programs fall apart over the last 5 years. They are supposed to be the big-time program in their state, but they're losing to MWC bottom-feeder Colorado State too frequently.
Kansas - I am unimpressed by your soft win over South Dakota State. When you play FCS schools, you are supposed to win by 50+ (see: Missouri versus Southeastern Louisiana).


College Week 2 Picks (in order of confidence)
LSU over Washington - We will learn a lot about the Pac12 mid-pack teams this week (everyone below USC and Oregon).
Wisconsin over Oregon State - You'll notice a trend here with Pac12 schools against BCS teams.
Nebraska over UCLA - How many does it take to make a trend a scientific fact?
Virginia over Penn State - Not the best team for the Nittany Lions to be trying to rebound against.
Iowa State over Iowa - The Hawkeyes barely beat Northern Illinois... but this should be close too.
Arizona State over Illinois - Going against scientific fact because I despise Illinois and their silly quarterback.
Texas A&M over Florida - Just because it feels like a trap for the Gators.
Miami (FL) over Kansas State - Purple kitty cats = overrated.
Auburn over Mississippi State - Always a close game, this could go either way.
Missouri over Georgia - I'm leaning on the slim chance I think the Tigers have. It's at home, it's on ESPN2, Georgia still have several suspended, and did you see how many yards the Buffalo running back had on the Dawgs last week??? Buffalo?

Last Week: 6-4 (34 pts)

NFL Season/Week 1 Picks
Giants over Cowboys - Sticking with the champs.
Bears over Colts - Staying away from the chumps.
Eagles over Browns - Staying away from the future chumps.
Lions over Rams - Detroit's still healthy, don't worry, they'll have 4-5 key injuries and stumble to 6-10.
Patriots over Titans - Why is it every year, someone says the Patriots could go 16-0, and I don't think they're crazy?
Chiefs over Falcons - Just like the Lions, when the Chiefs are healthy they should win at home... probably looking at 8-8 this year.
Vikings over Jaguars - Picking against Blaine Gabbert until he figures out how to take a 7-step drop and throw with pressure in his face.
Saints over Redskins - Nearly impressed with RG3 enough to take the upset pick, but give it a few more weeks.
Bills over Jets - Clearly the Jets have no idea how to manage a team. If you bring someone in to sell tickets, he shouldn't be on the bench.
Texans over Dolphins - Some say Tannehill got a bad shake at Texas A&M because his receivers drops accounted for like 65% of his incompletions. Not sure how throwing to the Dolphins receivers will change that..
Packers over 49ers - Wait, aren't the 2 best teams in the conference not supposed to play until 2 weeks before the Super Bowl?
Seahawks over Cardinals - Four guys who think they should be starting at quarterback in the NFL. Number of wins as a starter between them? Less than 15.
Panthers over Buccaneers - I'm riding the "Cam Newton will not have a sophomore slump" train until it derails... sometime around week 7.
Steelers over Broncos - If Manning survives the season, I'm hiring his surgeon to be on call for my son throughout his athletic career.
Ravens over Bengals - Might regret this pick in the Bengals can play run defense.
Chargers over Raiders - By less than a touchdown, mark my words.