Tomorrow is the first official day of winter, but here in Columbia, it hit early. Snow and 30+ mph winds... oh joy. Not sure which is dislike the most, extreme winters or extreme summers. I'd rather be cold than hot, but I like driving with my windows down, too.
Everyone hunker down and enjoy the holidays. Next week's blog will be on Saturday, FYI.
NFL Week 16
- Colts over Chiefs... My LOCK of the week. I think the temporary injunction on ripping the Chiefs has ended, now it's just sad. I can't wait to see how they screw up the #1 draft pick.
- Patriots over Jaguars... the worst part about the Chiefs' situation? The Jaguars. It's never fun to have a team with clearer needs and a brighter (possibly) future breathing down your necks. I'd much rather be picking #2 this year... actually, I rather be at like 5-10, but that's because I have no idea who I would take.
- Broncos over Browns... knowing that the Patriots could steal their #2 seed at the first slip up will keep the New Mannings churning.
- Redskins over Eagles... this is where we find out how much "drive", "motivation", and "momentum" mean when need to win out. The 'Skins are hot, a roll to the #4 seed is likely, but they can't stop now.
- Packers over Titans... speaking of "can't stop now," can the Packers carry momentum (unlike last year) into the playoffs? Maybe playing out off the Wild Card round will actually help.
- Panthers over Raiders... anytime half your wins are against the Chiefs, you can't be trusted... although the Panthers did lose to the Chiefs.
- Bears over Cardinals... I'm glad Cutler's production dropped off, although I feel for Bears fans, he is approaching the cliff of QB despair... how quickly do you think the Cardinals trade for Sanchez? 10 minutes?
- Texans over Vikings... it's quite simple: stop Adrian Peterson for 60 minutes and lock down home field for the entire playoffs (seriously, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans, only the Falcons are close to having as easy a road trip).
- Saints over Cowboys... Brees loves Jerry's World. This Saints team would be in the playoffs if the NFL hadn't crippled them with unnecessary suspensions.
- Falcons over Lions... similar situation as the Texans, just keep from screwing up.
- Dolphins over Bills... not sure what to say. It's entirely possible we could finish with 3 rookie QBs winning 8 or more games... unheard of.
- Jets over Chargers... honestly, right now, I think Greg McElroy is a better QB than Phillip Rivers. What if the Jets and Chargers just trade QBs after this game? Sanchez close to home, and a fresh start for Rivers. Makes sense, right?
- Bengals over Steelers... most people assume that this is where the Steelers' playoff experience takes over. Not with their offensive line.
- Buccaneers over Rams... how do you respond to losing by 41? Good question. This game is a crap shoot.
- Giants over Ravens... you can't keep losing to decent teams and just expect to pick up the slack when it really matters, Ravens. I honestly think the Bengals win the AFC North. The Giants won't go quietly into the night either.
- Seahawks over 49ers... the Seahawks at home? The way they've been scoring? As much as I like the Niners, they weren't able to beat the Rams this year.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 144-79
Bowl Picks: 2-0 (29 pts)... I'm pretty sure I'll remember the 2012 New Mexico Bowl if not because I went from being "so very wrong" to "right" in 48 seconds of football. Great game.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
NFL 15 and Bowl Game Picks
NFL Week 15 Picks
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
2012 Final College Football Ranks... and NFL Week 14 Picks, I guess
I'll start with the less important stuff so it doesn't get burried under the rest of the blog. NFL Week 14 picks are first, then you will find my 2012 Final Rankings for College Football. The only rankings I will do all year. I will include some hypothetical BCS and playoff analysis as well.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Christmas Shopping Can Wait
One more week of great football, then it pares down a bit until the BCS games and NFL playoffs, you can wait to do your Christmas shopping until next week (unless you are already done because you're one of those crazies that shopped last Friday).
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
You can also do me a solid and vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. He's the 7 seed in the playoffs and needs your support to beat the Yosemite Same look-alike, Red Raider. Vote as many times as you can, the voting will continue all week.
http://www.capitalonebowl.com/mascots/m/8
You'll notice some interesting picks this week for college football. That's because I base my picks on the 10 games ESPN's College Pick 'Em game offers each week. They only set up Saturday games, so two of the best games this weekend are not available to pick. Honestly, I think the MAC Championship is going to be a solid game. Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch is a better all-purpose threat than Johnney Manziel (more polished and durable). Kent State's Dri Archer might be the next Darren Sproles. The winner could bust the BCS if they finish in the top 16 (Kent is #17, and NIU is #21). I pick NIU with 5 confidence points. Also, I can't ignore the Pac-12 Championship. It's always tough to beat a team twice in one season unless there is a huge talent/depth difference. But playing the same team two weeks in a row; that's close to impossible. Stanford played their cards right and will have the game at their house. They dominated the game for 2.5 quarters and went into cruise control. I expect them to win a close one with 6 confidence points.
College Week 14
Florida State over Georgia Tech - the only thing worse than the chance of a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl was the chance of a 7-6 UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - yes, it is hard to beat a team twice in one year, but Nebraska's offense torched Wisconsin earlier in the season and Wisconsin's offense scares no one anymore.
Oklahoma over TCU - the Sooners win big to put pressure on the kittycats and the rest of the BCS.
Alabama over Georgia - I hate Nick Saban. Especially after his comment about it wouldn't be fair for Florida to get into the Sugar Bowl, instead of the loser of this game, if they didn't win their division. First of all, you got you got into the National Championship and didn't even win your division. Second, it's called your second loss, Florida has one loss... they are better. Either way, I think he's slow-playing us.
Oklahoma State over Baylor - the Big 12 point scoring extravaganza (don't dare call it bad defense) continues.
Cincinnati over Connecticut - why must I pick this meaningless Big East game?
Pittsburgh over South Florida - I repeat, why must i pick this meaningless Big East game?
UCF over Tulsa - Tulsa won the first match-up, and I like what UCF brings to the table. I have it low confidence because Tulsa's defense could keep this very low scoring.
Nevada over Boise State - there is no luster around this Bosie team. They are still good, but ever since that loss to Michigan State, they have been off the radar. They could sneak into the top 16 BCS, but my odds would be on the winner of the MAC Championship finishing higher. Plus I think the pressure of this possibility gets to the offense and the defense can't get the Wolf Pack off the field.
Texas over Kansas State - upset special because Texas has gotten better defensively every week in November and k-State has had too long to think about the implications and let Oklahoma get in their head.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 82-48 (492 pts.)
NFL Week 13
Falcons over Saints - get ready for some dome offense, and don't forget the road team has not won a game on the NFL Network this season.
Bills over Jaguars - even though Blaine Gabbert is hurt (he typically suffers from pussitis), they are a warm-weather team playing in December in Buffalo, NY... just saying.
Bears over Seahawks - west coast team playing the noon road game possibly missing their top 2 cornerbacks, stay away from Seattle.
Lions over Colts - doesn't it feel like these teams records need to be switched? Also, what do you think the odds are that Suh ends Luck's season with a cheap shot?
Packers over Vikings - it would be hard to imagine the Packers sliding from Champs to missing the playoffs in just two years.
Texans over Titans - ladies and gentlemen, your favorites to win it all, the 2012 Houston Texans!
Panthers over Chiefs - I shouldn't need to explain why I pick against the Chiefs... I think I get a 3 year free pass on that.
49ers over Rams - Colin Kaepernick has looked like the best rookie QB these last two weeks.
Patriots over Dolphins - Patriots are on a roll, the Dolphins are not.
Jets over Cardinals - west coast team playing the noon road game.
Broncos over Buccaneers - unless Doug Martin moves to defense and knocks Manning out of the game, it's not happening.
Raiders over Browns - I don't trust the Raiders' defense, but I have no respect for the Browns offense, tough call.
Bengals over Chargers - I'm hoping this is the end of the Norv Turner "tenure" in San Diego.
Ravens over Steelers - if Roethlisberger is not playing there is no chance.
Cowboys over Eagles - hopefully it hasn't been too long for the momentum of a great second half on Thanksgiving to still be in Romo's mind.
Giants over Redskins - in typical Redskins fashion... win one, lose one.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 116-59
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Happy Thanksfootballing!
A ton of rivalry games being played this weekend for both the pros and amateurs. Rivarlies make predicting games VERY hard. You never know how the attitude of each team is going to affect the outcome. While, some rivalries can be very one-sided, if there is enough dislike or envy between the teams, you never know what the motivations are going to be.
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
College Week 13
Georgia over Georgia Tech - of all the rivalry games, the talent disparagy in this one make it the easiest call for me. Tech has been too sychzophreic for any "hate" they may have to overcome the fact that Georgia is better at every position.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State - the Cowboys exorcised some demons last year, I don't think their "hate" can overcome a driven Sooner team. Not only can Oklahoma still get into the BCS, they could sneak in the Championship if crazy stuff happens.
Penn State over Wisconsin - not sure if this is a "rivarly," but I have more faith in Penn State playing lights out on Senior Day of what has been a "moral victory" of a season.
Notre Dame over USC - the feel good story of the year is 120 minutes away from completion.
Florida State over Florida - rivalry hatred aside, I'm picking the team that didn't need a miraculous blocked punt to beat Jacksonville State.
Oregon over Oregon State - only the rivalry hatred and the Beavers propensity for pulling off unexpected upsets are keeping me from putting more confidence behind the pick. The Ducks are the LAST team I'd want to play this week.
Ohio State over Michigan - let's see: first, they're undefeated; second, they would be #1 if they weren't on probation; third, Michigan is overrated; finally, Urban Meyer loves to win his primary rivalry game.
UCLA over Stanford - my "upset" special. While both teams have "let down game" written all over them, I seriously think the Bruins are itching to play Oregon again in the Pac12 title game to get revenge from last year.
Texas Tech over Baylor - speaking for "let down games", Baylor might as well have tattooed it on their foreheads, but I'm not super confident Tech can take advantage... they did need ovcrtime to beat kansas.
Clemson over South Carolina - another case of Clemson and South Carolina starting highly ranked, playing all their marque games early, losing one or two, then climbing back into the top 15 just before their rivalry game. Honestly, I have NO clue.
Last Week: 6-4 (28 pts)
Season: 76-44 (449 pts)
NFL Week 12
Texans over Lions - the road team on Thursday games stink doesn't count on Thanksgiving, especially when the best team in the AFC is playing a fringe NFC playoff team.
Redskins over Cowboys - I've just got this feeling that RG3 is going to make everyone wake up from their turkey nap and say "wow" in this one. Plus 'Skins/Cowboys on Thanksgiving is a great rivarly.
Patriots over Jets - let's just say the the Thursday road team jinx is limited to games on NFL Network, their is no real way I'm picking against the Patriots. Another good rivarly for Thanksgiving.
Bears over Vikings - if the Bears don't figure out what went wrong last week we can all stop worrying about "Jay Cutler MVP" as another sign the Mayans were right.
Bengals over Raiders - the sneaky good Bengals will just keep flying under the radar. Plus, it's a west coast team playing on the "east coast" in the early games.
Steelers over Browns - finally, Brandon Weeden is starting against a quarterback older than him.
Colts over Bills - Colts and Luck at home... all the way to the playoffs... amazing.
Broncos over Chiefs - my LOCK of the week. Did I mention I'm 10-"1" on LOCK picks? That "1" is actually the 49ers tie.
Dolphins over Seahawks - first, Seahawks on the road; second, it has to be the longest road trip for ANYONE; third, west coast team playing on the east coast in an early game; finally, it's not really an upset because 6-4 in the NFC is like 4-6 in the AFC anyway.
Falcons over Buccaneers - Doug Martin, meet "Spoon" and "Willie Mo."
Titans over Jaguars - I honestly thought of locking the Titans because the Broncos play the Chiefs again in week 17 (and at home), but Blaine-O has been ever so steadily improving, and this is the team that passed him over to take Jake Locker, so it's no LOCK.
Ravens over Chargers - I seriously hope the Ravens bury the Chargers for good (sorry to all my wife's family that are Chargers fans). I'm fine with the Broncos running away with the West if it means neither the Chargers or Raiders even sniff the playoffs. With Manning, the Broncos are slowly falling behind the Chargers in the race for my least favorite NFL team (NOTE: the Raiders will always win in this race).
49ers over Saints - I'm pretty sure Aldon Smith can't replicate what he did on Monday, but I'm sure he'll try. I'm also sure the Saints defense will try to replicate what the Bears defense did on Monday (or what they didn't do).
Panthers over Eagles - what an ugly Monday night game... BOOO!
Last Week: 11-3
Season: 104-55
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Time for Balling... a Little Basket Before Foot
Hey, guess what? Basketball season started last week.
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
Gee, the Lakers fired their coach after 5 games because he couldn't win when he had Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard. You don't say? This is the same guy that couldn't win with LeBron James? Go figure.
I watched Mizzou play last night live. They are going to struggle until Mike Dixon gets back on the court and until they figure out who is taking charge of the offense and when. A nice problem to have: not enough minutes. They had an 8-man rotation last night and your talking about adding Dixon sometime soon and Jabari Brown next month. The combination of match-ups they can throw out there should make things interesting. One guy to look out for is Stefon Jankovich: long reach, good stroke, foreign fundamental skills, and he can throw down. He had a great game last night.
College Week 12
Kansas State over Baylor - the Kittycats are the perfect example of "why fix something that isn't broken?" They may have to adjust if they play Oregon or and SEC defense.
Oklahoma over West Virginia - last year Baylor won 10 games and gave up 48.3 points per game (including a shut out). This year West Virginia has given up 41.4 points per game and is 4-5. Which team has the worst defense ever?
Oregon over Stanford - can you imagine if Oregon played West Virginia this year? Or Baylor last year? Dear lord. Also, the Cardinal has a slim chance if their defense plays like it did against USC.
Tennessee over Vanderbilt - I still can't get over the fact that the same Missouri Tigers that I've been watching all season (and for 12+ seasons) actually won a road conference game were the other team got all the breaks. If the Volunteers don't win, you can kiss Derek Dooley goodbye.
Ohio State over Wisconsin - I'm still giddy over Ohio State's failure to self-impose their bowl ban last year (when they were 6-6). Now they will miss a shot a the National Championship. I hope they go undefeated so they can be mocked for all sports eternity.
Rutgers over Cincinnati - Rutgers' defense has been one of the best (fantasy-wise) all season. Cincinnati has looked questionable offensively. Defense wins.
Northwestern over Michigan State - I wanted to pick against Northwestern because they still ahve a glimmer of hope for a Big10 title, and they usually blow those opportunities. Then I remember how ridiculous the Big10 has been this year.
UCLA over USC - never count out a rival, especially at home against a poorly coached team.
BYU over San Jose State - I actually like SJSU but I couldn't bring myself to pick them with any strong rationalization.
Oklahoma State over Texas Tech - both these teams barely beat kansas, and yet they are still ranked, not sure what to think here.
Last Week: 7-3 (41 pts)
Season: 70-40 (421 pts)
NFL Week 11
Bills over Dolphins - always take the home team on Thursday nighters. Always.
Falcons over Cardinals - always take the home dome team that is coming off it's first loss of the season.
Cowboys over Browns - always be weary of Tony Romo.
Packers over Lions - always be concerned about Green Bay's run defense, but never so much that it clouds your vision of Aaron Rodgers playing in a dome.
Bengals over Chiefs - always pick against the Chiefs as long as Matt Cassel is quarterback, Romeo Crennel is the head coach, or Scott Pioli is the GM.
Jets over Rams - always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Eagles over Redskins - always pick against the battered secondary going against a great receiving corps, even if their quarterback is Michael Vick.
Buccaneers over Panthers - always take the team with the sensational rookie putting up huge fantasy numbers.
Texans over Jaguars - always pick against Blaine Gabbert (this should be on the ten commandments of gambling), especially going up against the best defense in the league. And make sure it's your LOCK of the week.
Raiders over Saints - always pick against the Saints defense if the opposing offense is not a high school team, even if all they did last week was outscore the Falcons and prove that no one will go undefeated again.
Broncos over Chargers - always pick against a team that decides it's better to pay Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle instead of Darren Sproles.
Patriots over Colts - always pick against a rookie quarterback going against Tom Brady on the road.
Ravens over Steelers - always pick against a team that needed overtime to beat the Chiefs at home.
Bears over 49ers - again, always pick against a team that settled for a tie the previous week.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 93-52
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
The Election is Over. Can We Get Back to Football?
Thank god, the election is over. Let's move on.
College Week 11
Notre Dame over Boston College - I'm pretty sure the best word to describe what is going on with the Irish is "magical."
Kansas State over TCU - I watched some of last week's kSU/OSU game. It amazed me how many times the Kittycats ran the QB draw, and how many times it gained more than a few yards. Something strange is going on in Manhattan.
LSU over Mississippi State - the Bulldogs had the opportunity to establish themselves as regular contenders last week, but they got bulldozed by the Aggies. While LSU doesn't have that kind of offense, expect the Bulldogs to roll over and settle into mediocrity.
Alabama over Texas A&M - it's possible, this could be the game, I just can't bring myself to pick the Aggies.
Louisville over Syracuse - I can't trust the Cardinals, but they keep on winning and 'Cuse is not the team to derail them.
Oklahoma State over West Virginia - if the Cowboys can score on k-State, expect them to score TONS on WVU.
Wisconsin over Indiana - we spent a couple weeks dreaming of Duke making a conference championship, no it's time to think about Indiana in the Big10 championship... if they beat the Badgers.
Washington over Utah - no clue. The Huskies have played some good games.
Nebraska over Penn State - I'd love to take Penn State, but Nebraska's defense is too good.
Oregon State over Stanford - when both defenses are quite stout, take the more consistent offense, but this could go any way too.
Last Week: 8-2 (45 pts)
Season: 63-37 (380 pts)
NFL Week 10
Colts over Jaguars - I was tempted to take Blaine Gabbert here, because he beat the Colts 2 months ago and the Colts are on the road, but I think the Colts proved they aren't to be messed with.
Giants over Bengals - Giants on the road, coming off a disappointing loss? No contest.
Dolphins over Titans - Bud Adams may have called out the Titans organization, but the Dolphins are angry after last week's bummer.
Lions over Vikings - someone please put out an APB for Minnesota's defense.
Patriots over Bills - you're kidding right? I'll give the Bills a 10% chance.
Falcons over Saints - the Saints might be turning a corner, but the Falcons are still undefeated and sporting some serious confidence.
Buccaneers over Chargers - give Doug Martin the ball, watch the Chargers defense wilt.
Broncos over Panthers - I heard that Peyton Manning purchased 21 Papa John's Pizza franchises in Colorado last week. Yesterday, Colorado legalized marijuana. Luck or Peyton being Peyton?
Ravens over Raiders - I don't think the Ravens are strong, but I don't think the Raiders pose a threat to many teams not named the Chiefs.
Seahawks over Jets - Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game. I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing. Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game.
Cowboys over Eagles - which NFC East team is has more wasted talent?
49ers over Rams - my LOCK of the week. You might be asking why I didn't lock the Steelers. I'll explain later.
Texans over Bears - has to be the game of the week. I still don't trust Jay Cutler, not against the Texans defense.
Steelers over Chiefs - I would have locked the Steelers, but since this is Monday night, and this might be the last stand for any Chiefs coach, I'm giving them a puncher's chance. The Chiefs do crazy things on Monday nights.
Last Week: 12-2
Season: 84-47
College Week 11
Notre Dame over Boston College - I'm pretty sure the best word to describe what is going on with the Irish is "magical."
Kansas State over TCU - I watched some of last week's kSU/OSU game. It amazed me how many times the Kittycats ran the QB draw, and how many times it gained more than a few yards. Something strange is going on in Manhattan.
LSU over Mississippi State - the Bulldogs had the opportunity to establish themselves as regular contenders last week, but they got bulldozed by the Aggies. While LSU doesn't have that kind of offense, expect the Bulldogs to roll over and settle into mediocrity.
Alabama over Texas A&M - it's possible, this could be the game, I just can't bring myself to pick the Aggies.
Louisville over Syracuse - I can't trust the Cardinals, but they keep on winning and 'Cuse is not the team to derail them.
Oklahoma State over West Virginia - if the Cowboys can score on k-State, expect them to score TONS on WVU.
Wisconsin over Indiana - we spent a couple weeks dreaming of Duke making a conference championship, no it's time to think about Indiana in the Big10 championship... if they beat the Badgers.
Washington over Utah - no clue. The Huskies have played some good games.
Nebraska over Penn State - I'd love to take Penn State, but Nebraska's defense is too good.
Oregon State over Stanford - when both defenses are quite stout, take the more consistent offense, but this could go any way too.
Last Week: 8-2 (45 pts)
Season: 63-37 (380 pts)
NFL Week 10
Colts over Jaguars - I was tempted to take Blaine Gabbert here, because he beat the Colts 2 months ago and the Colts are on the road, but I think the Colts proved they aren't to be messed with.
Giants over Bengals - Giants on the road, coming off a disappointing loss? No contest.
Dolphins over Titans - Bud Adams may have called out the Titans organization, but the Dolphins are angry after last week's bummer.
Lions over Vikings - someone please put out an APB for Minnesota's defense.
Patriots over Bills - you're kidding right? I'll give the Bills a 10% chance.
Falcons over Saints - the Saints might be turning a corner, but the Falcons are still undefeated and sporting some serious confidence.
Buccaneers over Chargers - give Doug Martin the ball, watch the Chargers defense wilt.
Broncos over Panthers - I heard that Peyton Manning purchased 21 Papa John's Pizza franchises in Colorado last week. Yesterday, Colorado legalized marijuana. Luck or Peyton being Peyton?
Ravens over Raiders - I don't think the Ravens are strong, but I don't think the Raiders pose a threat to many teams not named the Chiefs.
Seahawks over Jets - Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game. I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing. Russel Westbrook is the best QB in this game.
Cowboys over Eagles - which NFC East team is has more wasted talent?
49ers over Rams - my LOCK of the week. You might be asking why I didn't lock the Steelers. I'll explain later.
Texans over Bears - has to be the game of the week. I still don't trust Jay Cutler, not against the Texans defense.
Steelers over Chiefs - I would have locked the Steelers, but since this is Monday night, and this might be the last stand for any Chiefs coach, I'm giving them a puncher's chance. The Chiefs do crazy things on Monday nights.
Last Week: 12-2
Season: 84-47
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Don't Be Scared by How Bad These Picks Are
There, that's my one Halloween pun for the entire blog.
Also vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. The winner gets $20,000 for their mascot scholarship program... http://www.capitalonebowl.com/vote
College Week 10
Kansas State over Oklahoma State - if the fairy tale was going to end for the Kittycats, it'd be this week, but I can't bring myself to see a scenario where this would happen.
Texas Tech over Texas - Texas almost lost to kansas... I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing, Texas almost lost to kansas.
Alabama over LSU - last year's regular season game was 6-3... both defenses got better, Alabama's offense got better, LSU's did not. You do the math.
Clemson over Duke - Duke is still in first place in their division... I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing, Duke is in first place. This could be a preview of the ACC Championship game.
Oklahoma over Iowa State - I would not want to play the Sooners right now.
Penn State over Purdue - At 0-4 in the Big10, Purdue can still make the Big10 Championship. At 3-1, Penn State can not. Don't try to do the math.
Nebraska over Michigan State - Nebraska might end up in the Rose Bowl because apparently no one else who can play in it wants to.
Oregon State over Arizona State - The Beavers have gone back to the backup that carried them through some tough games, this one could go either way if he plays like a backup.
Oregon over USC - We will find out if USC can play defense, and if Matt Barkley can put up numbers against a quality opponent.
Mississippi State over Texas A&M - The Aggies three conference wins were against Auburn, Arkansas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs three conference wins were against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennesse. We see which team wants to be in third place in the SEC West.
Last Week: 5-5 (21 pts)
Season: 55-35 (335 pts.)
NFL Week 9
Chargers over Chiefs - LOCK of the week, of course.
Broncos over Bengals - I almost locked in the Broncos, but this is a road game and the Bengals aren't bad.
Ravens over Browns - We've done this already. Are there really two games this week featuring division rivalries that have already been played this season?
Packers over Cardinals - How many times do you think Larry Fitzgerald contemplated sneaking into a Packers uniform this week?
Bears over Titans - We are another week closer to uttering the phrase "Super Bowl MVP Jay Cutler." Weird.
Colts over Dolphins - First upset pick. The Colts have played very well at home this year. Also, did you realize they are in second place? They are currently a playoff team. Seriously.
Redskins over Panthers - Cam Newton, meet your better.
Lions over Jaguars - Every weekend I wonder how Blaine Gabbert would have held up in the SEC... probably not well.
Texans over Bills - Arian Foster for 160 yards and 2 TDs.
Buccaneers over Raiders - The Gruden's Former Teams bowl... awkward.
Seahawks over Vikings - Second upset pick. Love the Seahawks defense this year and I'm not impressed by Minnesota's offense.
Giants over Steelers - The Steelers have not won back to back games this year, FYI.
Falcons over Cowboys - still not picking against the undefeated team.
Saints over Eagles - Michael Vick for 3 turnovers and 7 other "face-palm" moments.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 72-45
Also vote for Truman the Tiger in the Capital One Mascot Challenge. The winner gets $20,000 for their mascot scholarship program... http://www.capitalonebowl.com/vote
College Week 10
Kansas State over Oklahoma State - if the fairy tale was going to end for the Kittycats, it'd be this week, but I can't bring myself to see a scenario where this would happen.
Texas Tech over Texas - Texas almost lost to kansas... I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing, Texas almost lost to kansas.
Alabama over LSU - last year's regular season game was 6-3... both defenses got better, Alabama's offense got better, LSU's did not. You do the math.
Clemson over Duke - Duke is still in first place in their division... I'll repeat that for the hard of hearing, Duke is in first place. This could be a preview of the ACC Championship game.
Oklahoma over Iowa State - I would not want to play the Sooners right now.
Penn State over Purdue - At 0-4 in the Big10, Purdue can still make the Big10 Championship. At 3-1, Penn State can not. Don't try to do the math.
Nebraska over Michigan State - Nebraska might end up in the Rose Bowl because apparently no one else who can play in it wants to.
Oregon State over Arizona State - The Beavers have gone back to the backup that carried them through some tough games, this one could go either way if he plays like a backup.
Oregon over USC - We will find out if USC can play defense, and if Matt Barkley can put up numbers against a quality opponent.
Mississippi State over Texas A&M - The Aggies three conference wins were against Auburn, Arkansas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs three conference wins were against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennesse. We see which team wants to be in third place in the SEC West.
Last Week: 5-5 (21 pts)
Season: 55-35 (335 pts.)
NFL Week 9
Chargers over Chiefs - LOCK of the week, of course.
Broncos over Bengals - I almost locked in the Broncos, but this is a road game and the Bengals aren't bad.
Ravens over Browns - We've done this already. Are there really two games this week featuring division rivalries that have already been played this season?
Packers over Cardinals - How many times do you think Larry Fitzgerald contemplated sneaking into a Packers uniform this week?
Bears over Titans - We are another week closer to uttering the phrase "Super Bowl MVP Jay Cutler." Weird.
Colts over Dolphins - First upset pick. The Colts have played very well at home this year. Also, did you realize they are in second place? They are currently a playoff team. Seriously.
Redskins over Panthers - Cam Newton, meet your better.
Lions over Jaguars - Every weekend I wonder how Blaine Gabbert would have held up in the SEC... probably not well.
Texans over Bills - Arian Foster for 160 yards and 2 TDs.
Buccaneers over Raiders - The Gruden's Former Teams bowl... awkward.
Seahawks over Vikings - Second upset pick. Love the Seahawks defense this year and I'm not impressed by Minnesota's offense.
Giants over Steelers - The Steelers have not won back to back games this year, FYI.
Falcons over Cowboys - still not picking against the undefeated team.
Saints over Eagles - Michael Vick for 3 turnovers and 7 other "face-palm" moments.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 72-45
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Wednesday, Thursday... who cares? It's Football!
So I had stuff to do on lunch yesterday, so you had to wait one day for the football blog, I didn't know you cared that much.
College Week 9
USC over Arizona - This is the only game I am sure about. USC is climbing back into consideration thanks to the SEC working itself out and losing early.
Wisconsin over Michigan State - Like I said, I have really no clue about the rest of these games, but speaking of climbing back into consideration, why isn't Wisconsin ranked? Losses to Oregon State and Nebraska aren't that bad. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, Wisconsin is in the driver seat to get back to the Big10 Championship.
BYU over Georgia Tech - These are the top two teams in the race for Most Schizo Team this year.
Oregon State over Washington - I seriously contemplated the upset pick here, I mean the Beavers are vulnerable and Washington is no pushover at home.
Ohio State over Penn State - I'd say this game was for the division championship, but neither is eligible to win it, so... Big10 football, where corruption and mediocrity come easily!
Michigan over Nebraska - The winner is a contender, the loser is not. Simple as that. Fix your defenses, though, seriously.
Northwestern over Iowa - Another Big10 game?? Where's Boise and the ACC this week???
Florida over Georgia - All I can think of is the World's Largest Cocktail Party.... mmmm, cocktails.
Notre Dame over Oklahoma - I officially picked this game to be 6-3. I know Oklahoma is solid at home, and they will probably still win the Big12, but I cannot pick against Manti Teo... I mean the dude's grandmother and girlfriend died like the same day... he is focused with nothing to lose.
Kansas State over Texas Tech - These teams have taken turns as the fringe Big12 contender for like 20 years... a Tech win could mean a three way tie, and we all know how they deal with ties in the Big 12 (poorly, that's the correct answer).
Last Week: 7-3 (45 pts)
Season: 50-30 (314 pts)
NFL Week 8
Vikings over Buccaneers - undefeated at home against a shaky quarterback is a pretty good reason.
Bears over Panthers - is it just me or is Jay Cutler starting to look credible? Or is it too early to tell?
Chargers over Browns - if the Browns were ever going to get a coach fired, now is the time.
Seahawks over Lions - the history of this series indicates the Seahawks secondary is not worried about Lions passing game.
Packers over Jaguars - LOCK of the week for many reasons.
Titans over Colts - Hasselback is back and the Colts are not good on the road.
Patriots over Rams - another loss for the Patriots and questions are going to need to be answered.
Jets over Dolphins - another loss for the Jets and ESPN will have 50 more hours of Sportcenter programming.
Falcons over Eagles - not going against the undefeated team, but I will say the Eagles could pull this one off.
Steelers over Redskins - Roethlisberger will shred the depleted Skins secondary. RG3 will take at least 3 cheap shots.
Raiders over Chiefs - still not picking them, even after I tell you to follow @SaveOurChiefs on Twitter. We are trying to get Paoli fired. Did you know that at one point the Raiders had lost like 15 straight to the Chiefs... if they win this one they will have won 3 straight in Arrowhead... that is inexcusable.
Giants over Cowboys - Giants on the road are almost as much of a lock as who is playing the Jaguars or Chiefs.
Broncos over Saints - Peyton Manning at home on primetime? You're kidding right? I'm starting to think he picked the Broncos because of all their primetime games this year.
49ers over Cardinals - there will be several meetings of the Missouri Smiths in the backfield on Monday.
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 63-40
College Week 9
USC over Arizona - This is the only game I am sure about. USC is climbing back into consideration thanks to the SEC working itself out and losing early.
Wisconsin over Michigan State - Like I said, I have really no clue about the rest of these games, but speaking of climbing back into consideration, why isn't Wisconsin ranked? Losses to Oregon State and Nebraska aren't that bad. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, Wisconsin is in the driver seat to get back to the Big10 Championship.
BYU over Georgia Tech - These are the top two teams in the race for Most Schizo Team this year.
Oregon State over Washington - I seriously contemplated the upset pick here, I mean the Beavers are vulnerable and Washington is no pushover at home.
Ohio State over Penn State - I'd say this game was for the division championship, but neither is eligible to win it, so... Big10 football, where corruption and mediocrity come easily!
Michigan over Nebraska - The winner is a contender, the loser is not. Simple as that. Fix your defenses, though, seriously.
Northwestern over Iowa - Another Big10 game?? Where's Boise and the ACC this week???
Florida over Georgia - All I can think of is the World's Largest Cocktail Party.... mmmm, cocktails.
Notre Dame over Oklahoma - I officially picked this game to be 6-3. I know Oklahoma is solid at home, and they will probably still win the Big12, but I cannot pick against Manti Teo... I mean the dude's grandmother and girlfriend died like the same day... he is focused with nothing to lose.
Kansas State over Texas Tech - These teams have taken turns as the fringe Big12 contender for like 20 years... a Tech win could mean a three way tie, and we all know how they deal with ties in the Big 12 (poorly, that's the correct answer).
Last Week: 7-3 (45 pts)
Season: 50-30 (314 pts)
NFL Week 8
Vikings over Buccaneers - undefeated at home against a shaky quarterback is a pretty good reason.
Bears over Panthers - is it just me or is Jay Cutler starting to look credible? Or is it too early to tell?
Chargers over Browns - if the Browns were ever going to get a coach fired, now is the time.
Seahawks over Lions - the history of this series indicates the Seahawks secondary is not worried about Lions passing game.
Packers over Jaguars - LOCK of the week for many reasons.
Titans over Colts - Hasselback is back and the Colts are not good on the road.
Patriots over Rams - another loss for the Patriots and questions are going to need to be answered.
Jets over Dolphins - another loss for the Jets and ESPN will have 50 more hours of Sportcenter programming.
Falcons over Eagles - not going against the undefeated team, but I will say the Eagles could pull this one off.
Steelers over Redskins - Roethlisberger will shred the depleted Skins secondary. RG3 will take at least 3 cheap shots.
Raiders over Chiefs - still not picking them, even after I tell you to follow @SaveOurChiefs on Twitter. We are trying to get Paoli fired. Did you know that at one point the Raiders had lost like 15 straight to the Chiefs... if they win this one they will have won 3 straight in Arrowhead... that is inexcusable.
Giants over Cowboys - Giants on the road are almost as much of a lock as who is playing the Jaguars or Chiefs.
Broncos over Saints - Peyton Manning at home on primetime? You're kidding right? I'm starting to think he picked the Broncos because of all their primetime games this year.
49ers over Cardinals - there will be several meetings of the Missouri Smiths in the backfield on Monday.
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 63-40
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Soldiering On
Piss poor performance from me last week, and not just in picks. Terrible week for me all-around. But it's time to soldier on, get back to the basics, try to eliminate mistakes by not doing anything out of the ordinary. Home teams, defense, streaks, bye weeks. I need to pay attention to the major factors and only concern myself with substance.
College Week 8
Alabama over Tennessee - I'm sure even less than 10% of Tennessee fans are picking against Alabama this week. Pick the better defense on the longest winning streak. Champions until they are dethroned.
Clemson over Virginia Tech - Home team, day game, not on national TV, this is usually the recipe for a Clemson win, plus as shaky as their defense has been, they haven't scored less than 35 points since Labor Day.
Texas over Baylor - the Bears caught a break last year, their best team against Texas' worst team. Now that Texas has a dynamic offense, Baylor's suspect defense won't be able to hold up especially in Austin.
Northwestern over Nebraska - semi-upset special because of how uncharacteristically bad Nebraska's defense has been. Northwestern has enough weapons to make this game scary.
LSU over Texas A&M - LSU has the better defense. More importantly, A&M's defense is no where near as good as LSU's. I know Louisiana Tech is pretty good, but giving up 57 points? Wow. LSU might not be a high-powered attack, but they have more talent and can score plenty if needed.
Texas Tech over TCU - former doormats of the SWC in a game where the winner stays competitive in the Big12. Even though Tech is ripe for a let-down game, I don't think TCU's backup QB can do better than Geno Smith did.
Kansas State over West Virginia - I'll take the team that plays defense, but if the Kitty Kats turn the ball over or score to quickly, this may turn into Baylor-WVU part 2.
Michigan over Michigan State - They may not be at their best but Michigan's only two losses were to teams ranked #1 and #5 in the BCS. They really got rolling against Illinois last week.
South Carolina over Florida - Just like the LSU/A&M game, the Gamecocks have a better defense and Florida's offense is not miles better than Spurrier's.
Cal over Stanford - upset special. Stanford has been terrible on the road... no offensive touchdowns in two road games (depending on how you view their final play last week). Cal has scored plenty of points and in a rivalry game, the home team is going to have the most emotion.
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 43-27 (269 pts)
NFL Week 7
49ers over Seahawks - Seattle has played solid defense, but mostly at home. The 49ers have the better QB (even if it is Alex Smith).
Titans over Bills - maybe the Titans turned a corner last week. Hasselbeck is back under center and they might actually keep handing off to Chris Johnson.
Colts over Browns - take the home team with the better QB. Only a few guys that you can say Andrew Luck is better than at this point... Weeden is one of them.
Packers over Rams - the Rams defense has a chance to keep them in this game, but they have to keep the Packers out of the endzone. That is not happening.
Vikings over Cardinals - I suggest that the Cardinals run the Wild Larry and snap the ball to Fitzgerald so he can throw it to himself... otherwise what do they have on offense?
Giants over Redskins - We're still two games away from the Giants let down, I think they saw enough game film of RG3 running roughshod on a good Vikings defense to lose this one.
Buccaneers over Saints - Just hand the ball off Josh Freeman, and let the Saints defense do nothing.
Cowboys over Panthers - Cam Newton can put up stats all day, but with the Cowboys playing better lately, can he beat a team with substance?
Texans over Ravens - I expect two things from this game (the game of the week): Houston will be mad, and Baltimore will think they can air it out just like the Packers did last week. I think that puts their defense in a tough spot, one that is made tougher without their leader.
Raiders over Jaguars - my LOCK of the week. Seriously, without the Chiefs playing, I could go against Blaine Gabbert on the road (even if it's the Raiders), take the Patriots and their atrotious defense, the Colts, the 49ers coming off a loss, the Packers shaky offensive line, or someone from one of the 3 toss ups (Min/Ari, TB/NO, Sea/SF). Gabbert is easy money... or in this case, the Raiders are easier money.
Patriots over Jets - I believe that the Patriots don't lose 2 in a row. I believe Brady plays better against the Jets. I don't believe either Sanchez or Tebow is a winning QB. I don't believe the Jets have re-committed to the run.
Bengals over Steelers - I'll take the home team against a struggling defense. The Bengals are balances and AJ Green is always dangerous.
Bears over Lions - Sometime in November we are all going to look at the standings a go "What? The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to go through Jay Cutler's house??? How did that happen?"
Last Week: 4-10 (ouch!)
Season: 52-38
College Week 8
Alabama over Tennessee - I'm sure even less than 10% of Tennessee fans are picking against Alabama this week. Pick the better defense on the longest winning streak. Champions until they are dethroned.
Clemson over Virginia Tech - Home team, day game, not on national TV, this is usually the recipe for a Clemson win, plus as shaky as their defense has been, they haven't scored less than 35 points since Labor Day.
Texas over Baylor - the Bears caught a break last year, their best team against Texas' worst team. Now that Texas has a dynamic offense, Baylor's suspect defense won't be able to hold up especially in Austin.
Northwestern over Nebraska - semi-upset special because of how uncharacteristically bad Nebraska's defense has been. Northwestern has enough weapons to make this game scary.
LSU over Texas A&M - LSU has the better defense. More importantly, A&M's defense is no where near as good as LSU's. I know Louisiana Tech is pretty good, but giving up 57 points? Wow. LSU might not be a high-powered attack, but they have more talent and can score plenty if needed.
Texas Tech over TCU - former doormats of the SWC in a game where the winner stays competitive in the Big12. Even though Tech is ripe for a let-down game, I don't think TCU's backup QB can do better than Geno Smith did.
Kansas State over West Virginia - I'll take the team that plays defense, but if the Kitty Kats turn the ball over or score to quickly, this may turn into Baylor-WVU part 2.
Michigan over Michigan State - They may not be at their best but Michigan's only two losses were to teams ranked #1 and #5 in the BCS. They really got rolling against Illinois last week.
South Carolina over Florida - Just like the LSU/A&M game, the Gamecocks have a better defense and Florida's offense is not miles better than Spurrier's.
Cal over Stanford - upset special. Stanford has been terrible on the road... no offensive touchdowns in two road games (depending on how you view their final play last week). Cal has scored plenty of points and in a rivalry game, the home team is going to have the most emotion.
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 43-27 (269 pts)
NFL Week 7
49ers over Seahawks - Seattle has played solid defense, but mostly at home. The 49ers have the better QB (even if it is Alex Smith).
Titans over Bills - maybe the Titans turned a corner last week. Hasselbeck is back under center and they might actually keep handing off to Chris Johnson.
Colts over Browns - take the home team with the better QB. Only a few guys that you can say Andrew Luck is better than at this point... Weeden is one of them.
Packers over Rams - the Rams defense has a chance to keep them in this game, but they have to keep the Packers out of the endzone. That is not happening.
Vikings over Cardinals - I suggest that the Cardinals run the Wild Larry and snap the ball to Fitzgerald so he can throw it to himself... otherwise what do they have on offense?
Giants over Redskins - We're still two games away from the Giants let down, I think they saw enough game film of RG3 running roughshod on a good Vikings defense to lose this one.
Buccaneers over Saints - Just hand the ball off Josh Freeman, and let the Saints defense do nothing.
Cowboys over Panthers - Cam Newton can put up stats all day, but with the Cowboys playing better lately, can he beat a team with substance?
Texans over Ravens - I expect two things from this game (the game of the week): Houston will be mad, and Baltimore will think they can air it out just like the Packers did last week. I think that puts their defense in a tough spot, one that is made tougher without their leader.
Raiders over Jaguars - my LOCK of the week. Seriously, without the Chiefs playing, I could go against Blaine Gabbert on the road (even if it's the Raiders), take the Patriots and their atrotious defense, the Colts, the 49ers coming off a loss, the Packers shaky offensive line, or someone from one of the 3 toss ups (Min/Ari, TB/NO, Sea/SF). Gabbert is easy money... or in this case, the Raiders are easier money.
Patriots over Jets - I believe that the Patriots don't lose 2 in a row. I believe Brady plays better against the Jets. I don't believe either Sanchez or Tebow is a winning QB. I don't believe the Jets have re-committed to the run.
Bengals over Steelers - I'll take the home team against a struggling defense. The Bengals are balances and AJ Green is always dangerous.
Bears over Lions - Sometime in November we are all going to look at the standings a go "What? The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to go through Jay Cutler's house??? How did that happen?"
Last Week: 4-10 (ouch!)
Season: 52-38
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
... and October Drags On
I cannot even begin to talk about last week's Missouri loss. It will just get me depressed that the three teams I cheer for are perennially, at best, not that bad. The Royals fight to keep from losing 100 games every year. The Chiefs have been riding the success of the '90s for 12+ years, while making no effort to be the best. And Missouri is always a gut-wrenching loss away from being forgotten every year. It's getting harder and harder to just say, "well, maybe some day they'll win the big one," 'cause they won't.
College Week 7
Louisville over Pittsburgh - If I'm wrong about this game, the Big East is Rutgers' to lose and will once again not get much respect from the polls.
Notre Dame over Stanford - I don't think I can pick against Mante Te'o and the Irish defense right now, at least until they lose. Te'o is playing like he had nothing to lose, and that's scary.
West Virginia over Texas Tech - They scored on Texas' defense, I seriously doubt there is a defense in the Big12 that can stop them.
Boise State over Fresno State - The Broncos aren't done yet, just cause they actually lost the "big game" opener this year doesn't mean they aren't the best non-BCS team. Although, Ohio has an agrument.
South Carolina over LSU - If Georgia can only score 7, I'd be surprised in LSU scored ANYTHING.
Mississippi State over Tennessee - I'm crossing my fingers that Tennessee is actually really bad, that way (maybe) Mizzou can win a road SEC game.
Texas over Oklahoma - Also crossing my fingers that Oklahoma is actually bad, but the easy part of the schedule is coming up.
USC over Washington - Probably the last chance for the Trojans to be in good BCS shape.
Michigan State over Iowa - First team to 10 wins.
Louisiana Tech over Texas A&M - Upset special, I would have felt a lot better about it if they had played it in week 1, though.
Last Week: 6-4 (37 pts), back to earth
Season: 38-22 (235 pts)
NFL Week
Steelers over Titans - It's about that time of the year for the Steelers to win 4-6 games under the radar.
Falcons over Raiders - My LOCK of the week, the Raiders playing at 10 AM Oakland time against a team that hasn't lost yet? LOCK it.
Bengals over Browns - They already played this game, I remember how it turned out.
Rams over Dolphins - This will probably come down to a game of kickers and the Rams have the best right now.
Colts over Jets - Expect to see Tebow in this game... that's not a good thing.
Eagles over Lions - Only because the Eagles are playing some great defense and the Madden curse is due.
Buccaneers over Chiefs - I'm not picking the Chiefs again this season. Realistically, how many games can the burn me on? Four, maybe?
Ravens over Cowboys - I'll trust the team that has been consistent, even if their play calling has been questionable. Maybe they run the ball a little this week.
Cardinals over Bills - Could have pick either team here and had no defense for either pick.
Patriots over Seahawks - It's about time the Seattle sports world got a solid gut punch again.
49ers over Giants - The Niners aren't garaunteed to go to the Super Bowl, but they are the only team in the NFC I have 100% confidence in at this point.
Vikings over Redskins - This is entirely a records-based decision. I could totally see RG3 going for 400 total yards and 5 scores.
Titans over Packers - We are about to see the Packers at 2-4. A great passing game only gets you 1/3 of the way there.
Broncos over Chargers - Manning (and his noodle arm) on a Monday night in nice weather? Sign me up.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 48-28
College Week 7
Louisville over Pittsburgh - If I'm wrong about this game, the Big East is Rutgers' to lose and will once again not get much respect from the polls.
Notre Dame over Stanford - I don't think I can pick against Mante Te'o and the Irish defense right now, at least until they lose. Te'o is playing like he had nothing to lose, and that's scary.
West Virginia over Texas Tech - They scored on Texas' defense, I seriously doubt there is a defense in the Big12 that can stop them.
Boise State over Fresno State - The Broncos aren't done yet, just cause they actually lost the "big game" opener this year doesn't mean they aren't the best non-BCS team. Although, Ohio has an agrument.
South Carolina over LSU - If Georgia can only score 7, I'd be surprised in LSU scored ANYTHING.
Mississippi State over Tennessee - I'm crossing my fingers that Tennessee is actually really bad, that way (maybe) Mizzou can win a road SEC game.
Texas over Oklahoma - Also crossing my fingers that Oklahoma is actually bad, but the easy part of the schedule is coming up.
USC over Washington - Probably the last chance for the Trojans to be in good BCS shape.
Michigan State over Iowa - First team to 10 wins.
Louisiana Tech over Texas A&M - Upset special, I would have felt a lot better about it if they had played it in week 1, though.
Last Week: 6-4 (37 pts), back to earth
Season: 38-22 (235 pts)
NFL Week
Steelers over Titans - It's about that time of the year for the Steelers to win 4-6 games under the radar.
Falcons over Raiders - My LOCK of the week, the Raiders playing at 10 AM Oakland time against a team that hasn't lost yet? LOCK it.
Bengals over Browns - They already played this game, I remember how it turned out.
Rams over Dolphins - This will probably come down to a game of kickers and the Rams have the best right now.
Colts over Jets - Expect to see Tebow in this game... that's not a good thing.
Eagles over Lions - Only because the Eagles are playing some great defense and the Madden curse is due.
Buccaneers over Chiefs - I'm not picking the Chiefs again this season. Realistically, how many games can the burn me on? Four, maybe?
Ravens over Cowboys - I'll trust the team that has been consistent, even if their play calling has been questionable. Maybe they run the ball a little this week.
Cardinals over Bills - Could have pick either team here and had no defense for either pick.
Patriots over Seahawks - It's about time the Seattle sports world got a solid gut punch again.
49ers over Giants - The Niners aren't garaunteed to go to the Super Bowl, but they are the only team in the NFC I have 100% confidence in at this point.
Vikings over Redskins - This is entirely a records-based decision. I could totally see RG3 going for 400 total yards and 5 scores.
Titans over Packers - We are about to see the Packers at 2-4. A great passing game only gets you 1/3 of the way there.
Broncos over Chargers - Manning (and his noodle arm) on a Monday night in nice weather? Sign me up.
Last Week: 9-5
Season: 48-28
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
I'm Sorry, Is Baseball Finally Getting Exciting?
So today is the last day of the MLB season. Oakland and Texas are tied for the AL West, Baltimore can tie the Yankees in the AL East, the Braves could get bounced by the Cardinals on Friday (again) even after winning 93+ games, and the Royals might not lose 90 games. Will today be as exciting as last year's last day?
Well, that's enough non-football.
Last week I dedicated my blog and picks to my dad... and I went 22-3 (only the Lions, Cowboys, and Buccaneers let me down... which meant the Redskins, my dad's team, won... so even better). There is no way I can repeat last week's success, especially with this week's college slate, specifically the SEC games.
Before my picks, I'd like to give a little Mizzou analysis since I couldn't pick there game last week and I feel like everyone needs to know where I stand. We're 5 weeks into the first SEC season and they are 3-2 (0-2). Am I dissappointed? Not at all. Do I believe they could be better? Of course, but COULD is the operative word. The Tigers have been hampered by injuries to the o-line, erradic quarterback play, and terrible play calling. Injuries are something all teams have to deal with, they are not a good excuse. In Mizzou's case they have caused a shuffle... when your starting center is your backup left tackle and your backup right guard is your backup center and your right tackle is your backup to all the backups you can't have more than 1 injury to the line or you'll make yourself insane trying to make the depth chart each week. Well the Tigers have 3 injures to their top 5 lineman and the biggest problem is the center can provide the quarterback with a solid and accurate shotgun snap... a SERIOUS problem in an up-tempo-sticking-with-the-spread-or-die style like the Tigers'. The injuries have thrown a large wrench in the machine, if it's not fixed this week, it never will be. When the rumors started to surface about why Berkstresser started over Franklin against Arizona State (about 10 minutes before kickoff), my concern immediately shifted towards the locker-room psyche, not the play on the field. Berkstresser is more like Gabbert and Franklin is more like Daniel, either one is fine, neither are going to win championships. More importantly, the rumor was that Franklin had lost the support of his teammates because of his strong religious beliefs. After the game, with the assumption that Franklin would be cleared to play against South Carolina, the coaching staff needed to do one of two things: either stick the support behind Franklin and say that if he's healthy, he's playing, or give Berkstresser the keys to the car and let him loose. The trouble is, they didn't let Berkstresser do ANYTHING against Arizona State (hence the lack of offense), and no one thought that he could lead the team to any upsets down the road (which would mean a 5-7 season). So option 2 was a tough choice for a coaching staff that's been playing "not to lose" ever since they lost the '07 Big12 Championship game (remember, when they were #1 in the BCS). They took option 1 and Franklin has looked terrible ever since. I like James Franklin the person... I'm not a huge fan of James Franklin, starting quarterback of the Missouri Tigers. He's committed to his religion, his family, his girlfriend (star volleyball player Molly Kreklow) and his team... but he lacks passion, at least in the eyes of a fan. We never see him get pissed at his o-line for a bad snap or a missed block, his celebrations are muted and unselfish, and he's been nothing but polite and courteous to the media. He's bland. I would prefer my quarterback to have fire and confidence (like Chase Daniel) and the ability to scream at his teammates when the need motivating or correction. I don't get that from Franklin. Finally, it's very hard to win football games when your offensive coordinator can't help his quarterback improve. Mizzou has one 4th-and-short play, and everyone in the SEC knows it... they've gone from 4 halfbacks sharing the load to 1 feature back in 10 months...they finally have 3 receivers over 6'4" to stretch the field, and insist on throwing them screens and 2-yard outs. The Spread offense is the hardest to stop... when executed flawlessly. David Yost cannot be blamed for poor execution... but he could stop calling plays that his offense fails to execute. He could call more deep crossing routes, he could use the wide side of the field more, and he could throw out the script and let his speedy athletes loose. This week is a breaking point for Mizzou. Beat Vandy and they can play their style and gain some respect in the SEC the rest of the way finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Lose AT HOME to Vandy, and you can kiss the bowl game goodbye. Heck, you'd be lucky to win another game.
Sorry, on to the picks.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech - you can talk about the improved Tech defense until you're blue in the face. I won't believe it until they hold a ranked team to less than 200 yards and less than 20 points.
Stanford over Arizona - speaking of defenses Stanford needs to get there's in check soon.
Georgia over South Carolina - I've seen both teams against Mizzou, I have more faith in South Carolina's defense, but much more faith in Georgia's offense.
Michigan over Purdue - last chance for Michigan to convince us that Denard Robinson is a quarterback.
LSU over Florida - I have more faith in Florida's offense, but much more faith in LSU's defense.
Clemson over Georgia Tech - Tech is now running the triple option on defense too: let them run, let them pass, or let them score.
Ohio State over Nebraska - in the battle of teams that should have NEVER done alternate uniforms, I'm sticking with the slight hope that Ohio State finishs undefeated and stays home for the holidays.
Texas over West Virginia - first team to play defense against the Mountaineers should win
Auburn over Arkansas - why couldn't the SEC have figured out the new cross-divisional rivals thing before this season? Mizzou should be playing Arkansas this year instead of making their 3rd straight trip to A&M.
Penn State over Northwestern - If redemption exists, Penn State will win this game. If not, nothing is right in the Big Ten (Northwestern 6-0???)
Last Week: 10-0 (55 pts)
Season: 32-18 (198 pts)
Cardinals over Rams - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent gives me a compelling reason to think they can lose.
Bengals over Dolphins - the Bengals are dangerous. If Pittsburgh keeps losing, Cincy is in prime position to make the playoffs.
Packers over Colts - Andrew Luck, meet your better.
Ravens over Chiefs - I promise you, unless they are on a 3-game winning streak and are playing a team with at least 6 losses, I'm not picking the Chiefs. I wish I hadn't locked the Ravens last week.
Giants over Browns - speaking of teams I've already locked, could have really used the Giants this week.
Eagles over Steelers - the Eagles are the Bengals of the NFC, good enough to win enough games to slide into the playoffs.
Falcons over Redskins - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent scares me into thinking the streak could end.
Seahawks over Panthers - it's entirely possible that the NFC could be the Falcons and 10 decent teams between 9-7 and 7-9... the Seahawks are one of those 10.
Bears over Jaguars - this is my LOCK for the week. I will say there is an outside chance that the Bears could have a let down, but I bet Blaine Gabbert throws for less than 120 yards and at least 1 pick.
Vikings over Titans - the Vikings are probably another 9-7 or 7-9 team in the NFC.
Patriots over Broncos - Peyton Manning outdoors against the Patriots? You're kidding right?
49ers over Bills - either the 49ers or the Cardinals will be better than 9-7 the other will be in that group.
Chargers over Saints - if the Chargers win, expect my lock next week to be whomever they play.
Texans over Jets - zero points against the 49ers translates to less than 10 against the Texans.
Last Week: 12-3
Season: 39-24
Well, that's enough non-football.
Last week I dedicated my blog and picks to my dad... and I went 22-3 (only the Lions, Cowboys, and Buccaneers let me down... which meant the Redskins, my dad's team, won... so even better). There is no way I can repeat last week's success, especially with this week's college slate, specifically the SEC games.
Before my picks, I'd like to give a little Mizzou analysis since I couldn't pick there game last week and I feel like everyone needs to know where I stand. We're 5 weeks into the first SEC season and they are 3-2 (0-2). Am I dissappointed? Not at all. Do I believe they could be better? Of course, but COULD is the operative word. The Tigers have been hampered by injuries to the o-line, erradic quarterback play, and terrible play calling. Injuries are something all teams have to deal with, they are not a good excuse. In Mizzou's case they have caused a shuffle... when your starting center is your backup left tackle and your backup right guard is your backup center and your right tackle is your backup to all the backups you can't have more than 1 injury to the line or you'll make yourself insane trying to make the depth chart each week. Well the Tigers have 3 injures to their top 5 lineman and the biggest problem is the center can provide the quarterback with a solid and accurate shotgun snap... a SERIOUS problem in an up-tempo-sticking-with-the-spread-or-die style like the Tigers'. The injuries have thrown a large wrench in the machine, if it's not fixed this week, it never will be. When the rumors started to surface about why Berkstresser started over Franklin against Arizona State (about 10 minutes before kickoff), my concern immediately shifted towards the locker-room psyche, not the play on the field. Berkstresser is more like Gabbert and Franklin is more like Daniel, either one is fine, neither are going to win championships. More importantly, the rumor was that Franklin had lost the support of his teammates because of his strong religious beliefs. After the game, with the assumption that Franklin would be cleared to play against South Carolina, the coaching staff needed to do one of two things: either stick the support behind Franklin and say that if he's healthy, he's playing, or give Berkstresser the keys to the car and let him loose. The trouble is, they didn't let Berkstresser do ANYTHING against Arizona State (hence the lack of offense), and no one thought that he could lead the team to any upsets down the road (which would mean a 5-7 season). So option 2 was a tough choice for a coaching staff that's been playing "not to lose" ever since they lost the '07 Big12 Championship game (remember, when they were #1 in the BCS). They took option 1 and Franklin has looked terrible ever since. I like James Franklin the person... I'm not a huge fan of James Franklin, starting quarterback of the Missouri Tigers. He's committed to his religion, his family, his girlfriend (star volleyball player Molly Kreklow) and his team... but he lacks passion, at least in the eyes of a fan. We never see him get pissed at his o-line for a bad snap or a missed block, his celebrations are muted and unselfish, and he's been nothing but polite and courteous to the media. He's bland. I would prefer my quarterback to have fire and confidence (like Chase Daniel) and the ability to scream at his teammates when the need motivating or correction. I don't get that from Franklin. Finally, it's very hard to win football games when your offensive coordinator can't help his quarterback improve. Mizzou has one 4th-and-short play, and everyone in the SEC knows it... they've gone from 4 halfbacks sharing the load to 1 feature back in 10 months...they finally have 3 receivers over 6'4" to stretch the field, and insist on throwing them screens and 2-yard outs. The Spread offense is the hardest to stop... when executed flawlessly. David Yost cannot be blamed for poor execution... but he could stop calling plays that his offense fails to execute. He could call more deep crossing routes, he could use the wide side of the field more, and he could throw out the script and let his speedy athletes loose. This week is a breaking point for Mizzou. Beat Vandy and they can play their style and gain some respect in the SEC the rest of the way finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Lose AT HOME to Vandy, and you can kiss the bowl game goodbye. Heck, you'd be lucky to win another game.
Sorry, on to the picks.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech - you can talk about the improved Tech defense until you're blue in the face. I won't believe it until they hold a ranked team to less than 200 yards and less than 20 points.
Stanford over Arizona - speaking of defenses Stanford needs to get there's in check soon.
Georgia over South Carolina - I've seen both teams against Mizzou, I have more faith in South Carolina's defense, but much more faith in Georgia's offense.
Michigan over Purdue - last chance for Michigan to convince us that Denard Robinson is a quarterback.
LSU over Florida - I have more faith in Florida's offense, but much more faith in LSU's defense.
Clemson over Georgia Tech - Tech is now running the triple option on defense too: let them run, let them pass, or let them score.
Ohio State over Nebraska - in the battle of teams that should have NEVER done alternate uniforms, I'm sticking with the slight hope that Ohio State finishs undefeated and stays home for the holidays.
Texas over West Virginia - first team to play defense against the Mountaineers should win
Auburn over Arkansas - why couldn't the SEC have figured out the new cross-divisional rivals thing before this season? Mizzou should be playing Arkansas this year instead of making their 3rd straight trip to A&M.
Penn State over Northwestern - If redemption exists, Penn State will win this game. If not, nothing is right in the Big Ten (Northwestern 6-0???)
Last Week: 10-0 (55 pts)
Season: 32-18 (198 pts)
Cardinals over Rams - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent gives me a compelling reason to think they can lose.
Bengals over Dolphins - the Bengals are dangerous. If Pittsburgh keeps losing, Cincy is in prime position to make the playoffs.
Packers over Colts - Andrew Luck, meet your better.
Ravens over Chiefs - I promise you, unless they are on a 3-game winning streak and are playing a team with at least 6 losses, I'm not picking the Chiefs. I wish I hadn't locked the Ravens last week.
Giants over Browns - speaking of teams I've already locked, could have really used the Giants this week.
Eagles over Steelers - the Eagles are the Bengals of the NFC, good enough to win enough games to slide into the playoffs.
Falcons over Redskins - sticking with the undefeated team until an opponent scares me into thinking the streak could end.
Seahawks over Panthers - it's entirely possible that the NFC could be the Falcons and 10 decent teams between 9-7 and 7-9... the Seahawks are one of those 10.
Bears over Jaguars - this is my LOCK for the week. I will say there is an outside chance that the Bears could have a let down, but I bet Blaine Gabbert throws for less than 120 yards and at least 1 pick.
Vikings over Titans - the Vikings are probably another 9-7 or 7-9 team in the NFC.
Patriots over Broncos - Peyton Manning outdoors against the Patriots? You're kidding right?
49ers over Bills - either the 49ers or the Cardinals will be better than 9-7 the other will be in that group.
Chargers over Saints - if the Chargers win, expect my lock next week to be whomever they play.
Texans over Jets - zero points against the 49ers translates to less than 10 against the Texans.
Last Week: 12-3
Season: 39-24
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Happy Birthday, Dad!
It's my dad's @#th birthday, so this post is in honor of him.
College Week 5
Florida State over South Florida - It will be interesting to see how good the 'Noles are when they actually play a defense. Not sure that will happen until a BCS game.
Ohio State over Michigan State - A defensive battle is expected in this game, so I'm taking the team that has looked much more "put together" on offense.
Clemson over Boston College - It would be like Clemson to have a let down game this week, but I think they've turned a corner as a program and probably won't lose another game all year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - I'm really hoping this is where Wisconsin turns it around and gets their act together, but the Huskers will be too fast on offense and without Monte Ball, the Badgers are weak.
Texas A&M over Arkansas - Also hoping this where Arkansas turns it around, but I really doubt that will happen this year.
Texas over Oklahoma State - The Cowboys' defense has been suspect lately... the Longhorns' has not been.
Arizona State over California - They've played very well at home, and sketchy on the road, but Cal has played sketchy everywhere.
West Virginia over Baylor - First one to 50 wins.
Penn State over Illinois - Some might think this is a soft upset pick, those people must respect Nathan Scheelhaase as a football player (I don't, because he played at Rockhurst and chose Illinois).
Cincinnati over Virginia Tech - Here's the real upset pick, the Hokies have not stopped the run like they used to and Cincy can run the ball with the best of them.
Last Week: 6-4 (39 pts)
Season: 22-18 (143 pts)
NFL Week 4
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on the controversy that is the quality of officiating the replacement referees are providing. You know something is wrong when it's the first topic of conversation the 4 nurses I work with wanted to discuss when I walked in Tuesday morning. Not that they are clueless about sports, but it's the first time I can recall any of them having anything to say about the NFL at all.
And that's why this won't be an easy fix. When we watch (or talk about, or tweet about, or call in to radio shows about) the NFL, they get money in some way, shape or form. It is a multi-billion dollar corporation, and the big wigs (the owners and their puppet Goddell) only care about the bottom line. If it makes money, great; if it loses money, absolutely not... even if the idea makes total sense and makes the fans happy. As long as people show up for games, watch them on TV, and buy NFL appearall the 1% of football society will win. And they won't change a thing.
Without losing the sport we all love, there is not much we can to protest or affect any change. I suggest we just hold on tight and wait for the ride to be over.
On a side note, I think it's absolutely hilarious how up in arms football fans are... but really, are we ever NOT complaining about officiating in football? I predict that when the real referees come back, there will just as many blown calls and complaining from the fans (maybe not as much mutual, non-biased complaints, but still).
As far as the specific play at the end of the Packers/Seahawks game, I'm just shaking my head. Since I don't really have a horse in that race, I wasn't particularly mad. I do think that the main problem was the missed pass interference call... I'm pretty sure I would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights when trying to make the right call on the catch... but I'd like to think I'd have thrown the flag on the Seahawks there. What I try to think about is how would I feel if I were a die-hard Seahawks fan? I'm sure I would be justifying all the nuiances of the rule book and skewing all my arguments to defend the touchdown call. But would I know deep down that I was wrong? Probably not.
Ravens over Browns - My LOCK of the week. What's the over/under on Weeden turnovers? Five?
Falcons over Panthers - This one is a case of pick the undefeated team if your not 100% sure of the upset.
Patriots over Bills - Anyone who thinks the Patriots are capable of going 1-3 should be institutionalized.
Lions over Vikings - I don't think they have the talent to pull off consecutive huge upsets, but the Vikings are scary. The Lions deserve to win an easy one eventually.
Chargers over Chiefs - HA! The Chiefs won the battle of attrition last week with SIX field goals. It's never good when you score 3 touchdowns and give up 1, but still lose. You can put as much optimistic spin on that game as you want. At no point did Cassel look like a quality QB, and the Chiefs defense benefitted from some ridiculous Saints play calling (9 passes in your last 9 plays when you just needed to run the clock out?????).
Rams over Seahawks - Here's my upset pick. Seahawk fans are on borrowed time until they lose.
49ers over Jets - Either the Vikings are going to look pretty good, or the Dolphins aren't going to look as bad.
Texans over Titans - Another case of picking the undefeated team because I can't find a good reason to pick against them.
Broncos over Raiders - It's awfully convenient that Denver plays their home division games early... less cold weather for Manning's fused neck.
Cardinals over Dolphins - Again, I can't go against the undefeated team, but I'm not so confident that they won't just fall apart here like they're gauranteed to down the road.
Bengals over Jaguars - Gabbert had less than 100 yards passing in a win last week (80% of it on one throw). His burnout in Jacksonville will be a bonfire.
Packers over Saints - I would hate to be the Saints right now. There is no way I'd want to play a pissed off Packers team (especially Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers). By the way, the loser of this game is probably out of the playoffs.
Buccaneers over Redskins - At some point there will be plenty of room on the RG3 bandwagon... I'm staying on but realistically understanding how limited the team is right now. (This was the toughest pick by the way)
Eagles over Giants - They did beat the Ravens.
Cowboys over Bears - The battle of the most overrated QBs (other than Matt Cassel) will go the way of which is less of a pussy.
Stat of Week 3: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Russell Westbrook have combined for 5 wins... Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have combined for 3 wins. Crazy, no?
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 27-21
College Week 5
Florida State over South Florida - It will be interesting to see how good the 'Noles are when they actually play a defense. Not sure that will happen until a BCS game.
Ohio State over Michigan State - A defensive battle is expected in this game, so I'm taking the team that has looked much more "put together" on offense.
Clemson over Boston College - It would be like Clemson to have a let down game this week, but I think they've turned a corner as a program and probably won't lose another game all year.
Nebraska over Wisconsin - I'm really hoping this is where Wisconsin turns it around and gets their act together, but the Huskers will be too fast on offense and without Monte Ball, the Badgers are weak.
Texas A&M over Arkansas - Also hoping this where Arkansas turns it around, but I really doubt that will happen this year.
Texas over Oklahoma State - The Cowboys' defense has been suspect lately... the Longhorns' has not been.
Arizona State over California - They've played very well at home, and sketchy on the road, but Cal has played sketchy everywhere.
West Virginia over Baylor - First one to 50 wins.
Penn State over Illinois - Some might think this is a soft upset pick, those people must respect Nathan Scheelhaase as a football player (I don't, because he played at Rockhurst and chose Illinois).
Cincinnati over Virginia Tech - Here's the real upset pick, the Hokies have not stopped the run like they used to and Cincy can run the ball with the best of them.
Last Week: 6-4 (39 pts)
Season: 22-18 (143 pts)
NFL Week 4
I would be remiss if I didn't touch on the controversy that is the quality of officiating the replacement referees are providing. You know something is wrong when it's the first topic of conversation the 4 nurses I work with wanted to discuss when I walked in Tuesday morning. Not that they are clueless about sports, but it's the first time I can recall any of them having anything to say about the NFL at all.
And that's why this won't be an easy fix. When we watch (or talk about, or tweet about, or call in to radio shows about) the NFL, they get money in some way, shape or form. It is a multi-billion dollar corporation, and the big wigs (the owners and their puppet Goddell) only care about the bottom line. If it makes money, great; if it loses money, absolutely not... even if the idea makes total sense and makes the fans happy. As long as people show up for games, watch them on TV, and buy NFL appearall the 1% of football society will win. And they won't change a thing.
Without losing the sport we all love, there is not much we can to protest or affect any change. I suggest we just hold on tight and wait for the ride to be over.
On a side note, I think it's absolutely hilarious how up in arms football fans are... but really, are we ever NOT complaining about officiating in football? I predict that when the real referees come back, there will just as many blown calls and complaining from the fans (maybe not as much mutual, non-biased complaints, but still).
As far as the specific play at the end of the Packers/Seahawks game, I'm just shaking my head. Since I don't really have a horse in that race, I wasn't particularly mad. I do think that the main problem was the missed pass interference call... I'm pretty sure I would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights when trying to make the right call on the catch... but I'd like to think I'd have thrown the flag on the Seahawks there. What I try to think about is how would I feel if I were a die-hard Seahawks fan? I'm sure I would be justifying all the nuiances of the rule book and skewing all my arguments to defend the touchdown call. But would I know deep down that I was wrong? Probably not.
Ravens over Browns - My LOCK of the week. What's the over/under on Weeden turnovers? Five?
Falcons over Panthers - This one is a case of pick the undefeated team if your not 100% sure of the upset.
Patriots over Bills - Anyone who thinks the Patriots are capable of going 1-3 should be institutionalized.
Lions over Vikings - I don't think they have the talent to pull off consecutive huge upsets, but the Vikings are scary. The Lions deserve to win an easy one eventually.
Chargers over Chiefs - HA! The Chiefs won the battle of attrition last week with SIX field goals. It's never good when you score 3 touchdowns and give up 1, but still lose. You can put as much optimistic spin on that game as you want. At no point did Cassel look like a quality QB, and the Chiefs defense benefitted from some ridiculous Saints play calling (9 passes in your last 9 plays when you just needed to run the clock out?????).
Rams over Seahawks - Here's my upset pick. Seahawk fans are on borrowed time until they lose.
49ers over Jets - Either the Vikings are going to look pretty good, or the Dolphins aren't going to look as bad.
Texans over Titans - Another case of picking the undefeated team because I can't find a good reason to pick against them.
Broncos over Raiders - It's awfully convenient that Denver plays their home division games early... less cold weather for Manning's fused neck.
Cardinals over Dolphins - Again, I can't go against the undefeated team, but I'm not so confident that they won't just fall apart here like they're gauranteed to down the road.
Bengals over Jaguars - Gabbert had less than 100 yards passing in a win last week (80% of it on one throw). His burnout in Jacksonville will be a bonfire.
Packers over Saints - I would hate to be the Saints right now. There is no way I'd want to play a pissed off Packers team (especially Clay Matthews and Aaron Rodgers). By the way, the loser of this game is probably out of the playoffs.
Buccaneers over Redskins - At some point there will be plenty of room on the RG3 bandwagon... I'm staying on but realistically understanding how limited the team is right now. (This was the toughest pick by the way)
Eagles over Giants - They did beat the Ravens.
Cowboys over Bears - The battle of the most overrated QBs (other than Matt Cassel) will go the way of which is less of a pussy.
Stat of Week 3: Matt Cassel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, and Russell Westbrook have combined for 5 wins... Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have combined for 3 wins. Crazy, no?
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 27-21
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Hey, It's Wednesday! Need Some Football?
I was so oversaturated with college football after Saturday's crazy day, that I didn't watch ANY NFL games on Sunday. All the professional footbal I saw this weekend was the first two drives of the Denver/Atlanta game. Needless to say, I'm going to push through and continue to bring you strong and sometimes silly analysis.
College Week 4
Undeafeted Teams that are For Real:
Georgia - it's entirely possible that they could go undefeated, with no LSU or 'Bama on their schedule. Take it from someone who saw them in person... the defense is smart and deep and if the offense cleans up the silly penalties (like 6 false starts against Mizzou) they will eventually wear you down.
Florida State - while they haven't faced a quality opponent, they've been getting done with execution not luck. Get by Clemson and they could cruise to the BCS.
Ohio (as For Real as a MAC team can get) - they should go undefeated; which I hope will lead to a BCS at-large, but they might not make it above #15. I just know I wouldn't want to play them.
Undefeated Teams that are Kidding Themselves:
Stanford - the upset of USC was great, but it was at home, and USC is not deep, and USC loses a September Pac12 game every year. The offense can succeed and the defense made some great adjustments, but I forsee a loss or three (Oregon, maybe Cal and Washington).
Florida - unless they start leading games at halftime. Comeback wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee are not things you put on a resume, even if they're on the road.
UCLA - yes, they beat Nebraska, but we all know how fake the BigTen is now. They gave up a ton of points and yards to Rice, I can't trust them until they are in the Pac12 title game again.
Winless Teams that I'm Loving See Lose:
Colorado - life after the Big12 is going quite poorly, wouldn't you say?
Wyoming - still mad Dave Christiansen left Mizzou with Dave Yost as offensive coordinator. Katie will tell you that Yost gets more of my jeers than any other Mizzou player.
Houston - only because they might be the first team to go from 13-1 to 0-12 in less than 12 months.
Picks:
Georgia over Vanderbilt - for the aforementioned reason that the Dawgs are "For Real"
Florida State over Clemson - ditto, and because it's Clemson on national TV is never good.
Wake Forest over Army - might be the greatest turnaround in one week ever... from losing by 50+ to winning by 50+
Michigan over Notre Dame - the reason why I didn't mention the Irish in either section above is because of their schedule. This game, plus UNC, USC, Stanford... no idea if they are going to be 10-2 or 4-8 (and there is no way they hold Michigan to less than 21 points)
Minnesota over Syracuse - raise your hand if you care about this game in any way
Rutgers over Arkansas - I was tempted to lean with Arkansas because they might rally around the "controversy" of their QB's comments, but Rutgers' defense has been (fantasy points-wise) on par with Alabama.
Connecticut over Western Michigan - the directional-Michigan teams are struggling this year
UCLA over Oregon State - not much data to work with for the Beavers, and Wisconsin is looking like the biggest disappointment so far.
Georgia Tech over Miami-FL - k-State ran all over the Canes... guess what Georgia Tech LOVES to do?
South Carolina over Missouri - so, I make this pick against my boys (with the least amount of confidence) on one condition: the rumor that James Franklin missed the Arizona State game because his shoulder pain was too much and he refused a pain-killer injection for religious reasons has become more factual as the days progress. More importantly, the rumor has it that Franklin no longer has the full support of the locker room (some coaches, some prominent players). If this is true, and he starts against the Gamecocks, this is bad. If it's not true, and he starts, they have a shot. If he doesn't start and Yost limits the playbook for Berkstresser again, they are cooked. If he doesn't start, and Berkstresser can unleash his arm, they might win.
Last Week: 6-4 (42 pts.)
Season: 16-14 (104 pts.)
NFL Week 3
Not enough data for me to do any analysis. I'm not trying to fill 8 hours of programming with NFL analysis like some networks, so I make no promises until week 6 or so.
Picks:
Giants over Panthers - still putting faith in the Giants' defense for now
Bears over Rams - I actually tossed around the upset pick for a while, this is the Rams chance to be relevant, either way
Bills over Browns - thoroughly enjoying the Brandon Weeden disaster/era in Cleveland so far
Cowboys over Buccaneers - I may never fully trust Tony Romo as a starting QB, but it's even harder to trust Josh Freeman
Lions over Titans - they struggled through two games against the NFC West, but this is the Jake Locker-led Titans we're talking about
Colts over Jaguars - it is not hard for me to say "go with the better QB" for this game... Luck is MUCH better than Gabbert
Jets over Dolphins - thoroughly enjoying the Ryan Tannehill disaster/era in Miami so far
49ers over Vikings - the Niners are halfway through demolishing the NFC North
Saints over Chiefs - really? I'm pretty sure 0-16 is a possibility as long as Cassel is playing
Bengals over Redskins - either the Rams offense is better than the Saints offense, or RG3 has been figured out, I'm going with the latter
Cardinals over Eagles - Kevin Kolb has much to prove in this game, if the over/under for TOs in this game is less than 6, take the over
Falcons over Chargers - with as many seniors as Mizzou has on defense this year, it might be possible for the Falcons to draft all of them and just turn thier defense into a pro-Tigers team
Texans over Broncos - I'm still 6 wins away from believing in Manning's new neck (although it's holding up nicely in all his new commercials)
Steelers over Raiders - I'm quietly hoping that the Raiders are actually worse than the Chiefs
Ravens over Patriots - strong possibility the Pats will be 1-2... maybe the Mayans were right
Packers over Seahawks - the Seahawks are a more likely 1-2 team
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 17-15
College Week 4
Undeafeted Teams that are For Real:
Georgia - it's entirely possible that they could go undefeated, with no LSU or 'Bama on their schedule. Take it from someone who saw them in person... the defense is smart and deep and if the offense cleans up the silly penalties (like 6 false starts against Mizzou) they will eventually wear you down.
Florida State - while they haven't faced a quality opponent, they've been getting done with execution not luck. Get by Clemson and they could cruise to the BCS.
Ohio (as For Real as a MAC team can get) - they should go undefeated; which I hope will lead to a BCS at-large, but they might not make it above #15. I just know I wouldn't want to play them.
Undefeated Teams that are Kidding Themselves:
Stanford - the upset of USC was great, but it was at home, and USC is not deep, and USC loses a September Pac12 game every year. The offense can succeed and the defense made some great adjustments, but I forsee a loss or three (Oregon, maybe Cal and Washington).
Florida - unless they start leading games at halftime. Comeback wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee are not things you put on a resume, even if they're on the road.
UCLA - yes, they beat Nebraska, but we all know how fake the BigTen is now. They gave up a ton of points and yards to Rice, I can't trust them until they are in the Pac12 title game again.
Winless Teams that I'm Loving See Lose:
Colorado - life after the Big12 is going quite poorly, wouldn't you say?
Wyoming - still mad Dave Christiansen left Mizzou with Dave Yost as offensive coordinator. Katie will tell you that Yost gets more of my jeers than any other Mizzou player.
Houston - only because they might be the first team to go from 13-1 to 0-12 in less than 12 months.
Picks:
Georgia over Vanderbilt - for the aforementioned reason that the Dawgs are "For Real"
Florida State over Clemson - ditto, and because it's Clemson on national TV is never good.
Wake Forest over Army - might be the greatest turnaround in one week ever... from losing by 50+ to winning by 50+
Michigan over Notre Dame - the reason why I didn't mention the Irish in either section above is because of their schedule. This game, plus UNC, USC, Stanford... no idea if they are going to be 10-2 or 4-8 (and there is no way they hold Michigan to less than 21 points)
Minnesota over Syracuse - raise your hand if you care about this game in any way
Rutgers over Arkansas - I was tempted to lean with Arkansas because they might rally around the "controversy" of their QB's comments, but Rutgers' defense has been (fantasy points-wise) on par with Alabama.
Connecticut over Western Michigan - the directional-Michigan teams are struggling this year
UCLA over Oregon State - not much data to work with for the Beavers, and Wisconsin is looking like the biggest disappointment so far.
Georgia Tech over Miami-FL - k-State ran all over the Canes... guess what Georgia Tech LOVES to do?
South Carolina over Missouri - so, I make this pick against my boys (with the least amount of confidence) on one condition: the rumor that James Franklin missed the Arizona State game because his shoulder pain was too much and he refused a pain-killer injection for religious reasons has become more factual as the days progress. More importantly, the rumor has it that Franklin no longer has the full support of the locker room (some coaches, some prominent players). If this is true, and he starts against the Gamecocks, this is bad. If it's not true, and he starts, they have a shot. If he doesn't start and Yost limits the playbook for Berkstresser again, they are cooked. If he doesn't start, and Berkstresser can unleash his arm, they might win.
Last Week: 6-4 (42 pts.)
Season: 16-14 (104 pts.)
NFL Week 3
Not enough data for me to do any analysis. I'm not trying to fill 8 hours of programming with NFL analysis like some networks, so I make no promises until week 6 or so.
Picks:
Giants over Panthers - still putting faith in the Giants' defense for now
Bears over Rams - I actually tossed around the upset pick for a while, this is the Rams chance to be relevant, either way
Bills over Browns - thoroughly enjoying the Brandon Weeden disaster/era in Cleveland so far
Cowboys over Buccaneers - I may never fully trust Tony Romo as a starting QB, but it's even harder to trust Josh Freeman
Lions over Titans - they struggled through two games against the NFC West, but this is the Jake Locker-led Titans we're talking about
Colts over Jaguars - it is not hard for me to say "go with the better QB" for this game... Luck is MUCH better than Gabbert
Jets over Dolphins - thoroughly enjoying the Ryan Tannehill disaster/era in Miami so far
49ers over Vikings - the Niners are halfway through demolishing the NFC North
Saints over Chiefs - really? I'm pretty sure 0-16 is a possibility as long as Cassel is playing
Bengals over Redskins - either the Rams offense is better than the Saints offense, or RG3 has been figured out, I'm going with the latter
Cardinals over Eagles - Kevin Kolb has much to prove in this game, if the over/under for TOs in this game is less than 6, take the over
Falcons over Chargers - with as many seniors as Mizzou has on defense this year, it might be possible for the Falcons to draft all of them and just turn thier defense into a pro-Tigers team
Texans over Broncos - I'm still 6 wins away from believing in Manning's new neck (although it's holding up nicely in all his new commercials)
Steelers over Raiders - I'm quietly hoping that the Raiders are actually worse than the Chiefs
Ravens over Patriots - strong possibility the Pats will be 1-2... maybe the Mayans were right
Packers over Seahawks - the Seahawks are a more likely 1-2 team
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 17-15
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Football Wednesdays Week 2
Well my first 4-day, 4-sport weekend extravaganza did not go well. Thursday night softball team lost 14-13 after beginning the bottom of the 7th up 13-8 (I also struck out, which always sucks). Friday night kickball got rained out. The Tigers lost to Georgia and then the Chiefs lost to the Falcons.
College Week 2 Wrap-Up
The Unexpected:
The Pac12 (excluding Colorado) - Oregon State over Wisconsin, UCLA over Nebraska, Arizona State over Illinois, Arizona over Oklahoma State... now if only they won't beat up on each other and end up with like seven solid 7-5 teams.
Louisiana - LSU dominated Washington, UL-Lafayette is 2-0, and UL-Monroe pulled off the upset of the year (so far) by beating Arkansas. The Warhawks are going to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt.
The Expected:
Rice over Kansas - If ESPN had given me the chance to pick this game I would have called it. Sure, it's Kansas and I'll always pick against them... but Rice scored a bunch in a loss to UCLA in Week 1 and Kansas was (as I said) unimpressive against South Dakota State.
Mizzou - Yes, I picked them, but that was to show them some confidence. Would I have rather watched Georgia control the game, lead by 7+ the whole way, and never give the crowd any hope? NO. But it was quite predictable (and frustrating) to watch the Tigers lose because they didn't execute, got tired, and stopped playing with urgency. Also, as usual, Pinkel and Yost got out-coached in the second half when their players were ready to pull off the upset (see every loss to a top-10 team over the last 5 years).
The Picks:
Alabama over Arkansas - worst case scenario for a team that is reeling from a huge upset: playing the defending champs who appear to have a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State over California - we'll have to see how BigTen play goes, but pretty strong offensive start for the Buckeyes, now they play a team with very low expectations after two weeks.
Florida over Tennessee - not buying the hype, while Florida's win was over a team making a career out of blowing 2nd-half leads, they are the better team.
Missouri over Arizona State - this is a must win, rebound from a deflating loss and get some momentum for the most important game of the season (at South Carolina).
Texas over Mississippi - not too sure if Texas has rebounded yet, if they beat Oklahoma, then we'll talk.
Michigan State over Notre Dame - dominant defense will win this game, the over/under has to be less than 25.
BYU over Utah - the Holy War is always a great game.
USC over Stanford - not going to pick against the Trojans for a long time.
Louisville over North Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater could be just like Brad Smith.
Navy over Penn State - not going to pick Penn State for along time.
Last Week: 4-6 (28 pts.)
Season: 10-10 (62 pts.)
NFL Picks: (It's too early and I saw exactly 1 minute of NFL games this weekend)
Packers over Bears - Rodgers will draw Cutler into a gunslinger battle and guess who's winning that one.
Bills over Chiefs - I might not pick the Chiefs again this year.
Bengals over Browns - the Browns need to stop trying to draft a quarterback and get one in free agency, forget spending the money, use it on the role players.
Vikings over Colts - we are not far from the Colts becoming a dangerous team.
Raiders over Dolphins - we are quite far from Tannehill becoming a dangerous quarterback.
Patriots over Cardinals - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between convincing-ness of wins?
Giants over Buccaneers - my Eliminator pick of the week.
Ravens over Eagles - you beat the Browns by 1??
Saints over Panthers - which is worse, being upset by Tampa or Washington?
Texans over Jaguars - I predict Blaine Gabbert will be out of Jacksonville by season's end.
Redskins over Rams - RG3 is two more games like last week away from drawing me into the hype.
Cowboys over Seahawks - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between how their fanbases are feeling right now?
Steelers over Jets - were the Jets playing rope-a-dope during the preseason? NAH.
Chargers over Titans - we are still four months away from the Chargers letting their fans down by exiting the playoffs early.
49ers over Lions - recognize: one team was well prepared and beat a strong opponent convincingly, the other needed a late drive to survive one of the league's weakest teams.
Falcons over Broncos - still not picking Manning for a few more weeks.
Last Week: 8-8
College Week 2 Wrap-Up
The Unexpected:
The Pac12 (excluding Colorado) - Oregon State over Wisconsin, UCLA over Nebraska, Arizona State over Illinois, Arizona over Oklahoma State... now if only they won't beat up on each other and end up with like seven solid 7-5 teams.
Louisiana - LSU dominated Washington, UL-Lafayette is 2-0, and UL-Monroe pulled off the upset of the year (so far) by beating Arkansas. The Warhawks are going to be the team to beat in the Sun Belt.
The Expected:
Rice over Kansas - If ESPN had given me the chance to pick this game I would have called it. Sure, it's Kansas and I'll always pick against them... but Rice scored a bunch in a loss to UCLA in Week 1 and Kansas was (as I said) unimpressive against South Dakota State.
Mizzou - Yes, I picked them, but that was to show them some confidence. Would I have rather watched Georgia control the game, lead by 7+ the whole way, and never give the crowd any hope? NO. But it was quite predictable (and frustrating) to watch the Tigers lose because they didn't execute, got tired, and stopped playing with urgency. Also, as usual, Pinkel and Yost got out-coached in the second half when their players were ready to pull off the upset (see every loss to a top-10 team over the last 5 years).
The Picks:
Alabama over Arkansas - worst case scenario for a team that is reeling from a huge upset: playing the defending champs who appear to have a chip on their shoulder.
Ohio State over California - we'll have to see how BigTen play goes, but pretty strong offensive start for the Buckeyes, now they play a team with very low expectations after two weeks.
Florida over Tennessee - not buying the hype, while Florida's win was over a team making a career out of blowing 2nd-half leads, they are the better team.
Missouri over Arizona State - this is a must win, rebound from a deflating loss and get some momentum for the most important game of the season (at South Carolina).
Texas over Mississippi - not too sure if Texas has rebounded yet, if they beat Oklahoma, then we'll talk.
Michigan State over Notre Dame - dominant defense will win this game, the over/under has to be less than 25.
BYU over Utah - the Holy War is always a great game.
USC over Stanford - not going to pick against the Trojans for a long time.
Louisville over North Carolina - Teddy Bridgewater could be just like Brad Smith.
Navy over Penn State - not going to pick Penn State for along time.
Last Week: 4-6 (28 pts.)
Season: 10-10 (62 pts.)
NFL Picks: (It's too early and I saw exactly 1 minute of NFL games this weekend)
Packers over Bears - Rodgers will draw Cutler into a gunslinger battle and guess who's winning that one.
Bills over Chiefs - I might not pick the Chiefs again this year.
Bengals over Browns - the Browns need to stop trying to draft a quarterback and get one in free agency, forget spending the money, use it on the role players.
Vikings over Colts - we are not far from the Colts becoming a dangerous team.
Raiders over Dolphins - we are quite far from Tannehill becoming a dangerous quarterback.
Patriots over Cardinals - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between convincing-ness of wins?
Giants over Buccaneers - my Eliminator pick of the week.
Ravens over Eagles - you beat the Browns by 1??
Saints over Panthers - which is worse, being upset by Tampa or Washington?
Texans over Jaguars - I predict Blaine Gabbert will be out of Jacksonville by season's end.
Redskins over Rams - RG3 is two more games like last week away from drawing me into the hype.
Cowboys over Seahawks - could there be a match up of teams with a bigger desparity between how their fanbases are feeling right now?
Steelers over Jets - were the Jets playing rope-a-dope during the preseason? NAH.
Chargers over Titans - we are still four months away from the Chargers letting their fans down by exiting the playoffs early.
49ers over Lions - recognize: one team was well prepared and beat a strong opponent convincingly, the other needed a late drive to survive one of the league's weakest teams.
Falcons over Broncos - still not picking Manning for a few more weeks.
Last Week: 8-8
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Weekly Wednesday Football #1
In order to keep from taking too much time away from work and family, and yet still keep everyone informed as to my ridiculous opinions about football, I've decided to merge my weekly football columns into one on Wednesday. A brief rap-up of the week before and my picks/analysis for the coming week will be coming at you every Wednesday (maybe some Thursdays), so feel free to check in as often as you like.
College Week 1 Wrap-Up
Teams that REALLY impressed me:
Alabama - As Martin Lawrence once said "DAMN, Gina!" Could the Tide have left any less doubt that they are going to defend their national title to the death? Of course, Michigan probably should have started ranked between 15 and 22 because of their weak defense, but DAMN that was a beat down.
Clemson - Auburn may no longer be the top of the SEC West, but Clemson, minus their biggest playmaker, showed they are for real. A neutral site win against a BCS team on national TV? That doesn't sound like the Clemson we all know and love.
Baylor - Can't write these guys off yet. They still scored, they played decent defense (for once), and more importantly, there appears to be a air of success floating around Waco.
Teams that were totally unimpressive:
Penn State - You can make all the excuses in the world, but a Big 10 team should never lose at home to a MAC team. For the players and their fans, I hope they get on the right track. They get to play Indiana, right?
Colorado - The move to the Pac12 was widely panned here in Missouri, as we'd seen their football and basketball programs fall apart over the last 5 years. They are supposed to be the big-time program in their state, but they're losing to MWC bottom-feeder Colorado State too frequently.
Kansas - I am unimpressed by your soft win over South Dakota State. When you play FCS schools, you are supposed to win by 50+ (see: Missouri versus Southeastern Louisiana).
College Week 2 Picks (in order of confidence)
LSU over Washington - We will learn a lot about the Pac12 mid-pack teams this week (everyone below USC and Oregon).
Wisconsin over Oregon State - You'll notice a trend here with Pac12 schools against BCS teams.
Nebraska over UCLA - How many does it take to make a trend a scientific fact?
Virginia over Penn State - Not the best team for the Nittany Lions to be trying to rebound against.
Iowa State over Iowa - The Hawkeyes barely beat Northern Illinois... but this should be close too.
Arizona State over Illinois - Going against scientific fact because I despise Illinois and their silly quarterback.
Texas A&M over Florida - Just because it feels like a trap for the Gators.
Miami (FL) over Kansas State - Purple kitty cats = overrated.
Auburn over Mississippi State - Always a close game, this could go either way.
Missouri over Georgia - I'm leaning on the slim chance I think the Tigers have. It's at home, it's on ESPN2, Georgia still have several suspended, and did you see how many yards the Buffalo running back had on the Dawgs last week??? Buffalo?
Last Week: 6-4 (34 pts)
NFL Season/Week 1 Picks
Giants over Cowboys - Sticking with the champs.
Bears over Colts - Staying away from the chumps.
Eagles over Browns - Staying away from the future chumps.
Lions over Rams - Detroit's still healthy, don't worry, they'll have 4-5 key injuries and stumble to 6-10.
Patriots over Titans - Why is it every year, someone says the Patriots could go 16-0, and I don't think they're crazy?
Chiefs over Falcons - Just like the Lions, when the Chiefs are healthy they should win at home... probably looking at 8-8 this year.
Vikings over Jaguars - Picking against Blaine Gabbert until he figures out how to take a 7-step drop and throw with pressure in his face.
Saints over Redskins - Nearly impressed with RG3 enough to take the upset pick, but give it a few more weeks.
Bills over Jets - Clearly the Jets have no idea how to manage a team. If you bring someone in to sell tickets, he shouldn't be on the bench.
Texans over Dolphins - Some say Tannehill got a bad shake at Texas A&M because his receivers drops accounted for like 65% of his incompletions. Not sure how throwing to the Dolphins receivers will change that..
Packers over 49ers - Wait, aren't the 2 best teams in the conference not supposed to play until 2 weeks before the Super Bowl?
Seahawks over Cardinals - Four guys who think they should be starting at quarterback in the NFL. Number of wins as a starter between them? Less than 15.
Panthers over Buccaneers - I'm riding the "Cam Newton will not have a sophomore slump" train until it derails... sometime around week 7.
Steelers over Broncos - If Manning survives the season, I'm hiring his surgeon to be on call for my son throughout his athletic career.
Ravens over Bengals - Might regret this pick in the Bengals can play run defense.
Chargers over Raiders - By less than a touchdown, mark my words.
College Week 1 Wrap-Up
Teams that REALLY impressed me:
Alabama - As Martin Lawrence once said "DAMN, Gina!" Could the Tide have left any less doubt that they are going to defend their national title to the death? Of course, Michigan probably should have started ranked between 15 and 22 because of their weak defense, but DAMN that was a beat down.
Clemson - Auburn may no longer be the top of the SEC West, but Clemson, minus their biggest playmaker, showed they are for real. A neutral site win against a BCS team on national TV? That doesn't sound like the Clemson we all know and love.
Baylor - Can't write these guys off yet. They still scored, they played decent defense (for once), and more importantly, there appears to be a air of success floating around Waco.
Teams that were totally unimpressive:
Penn State - You can make all the excuses in the world, but a Big 10 team should never lose at home to a MAC team. For the players and their fans, I hope they get on the right track. They get to play Indiana, right?
Colorado - The move to the Pac12 was widely panned here in Missouri, as we'd seen their football and basketball programs fall apart over the last 5 years. They are supposed to be the big-time program in their state, but they're losing to MWC bottom-feeder Colorado State too frequently.
Kansas - I am unimpressed by your soft win over South Dakota State. When you play FCS schools, you are supposed to win by 50+ (see: Missouri versus Southeastern Louisiana).
College Week 2 Picks (in order of confidence)
LSU over Washington - We will learn a lot about the Pac12 mid-pack teams this week (everyone below USC and Oregon).
Wisconsin over Oregon State - You'll notice a trend here with Pac12 schools against BCS teams.
Nebraska over UCLA - How many does it take to make a trend a scientific fact?
Virginia over Penn State - Not the best team for the Nittany Lions to be trying to rebound against.
Iowa State over Iowa - The Hawkeyes barely beat Northern Illinois... but this should be close too.
Arizona State over Illinois - Going against scientific fact because I despise Illinois and their silly quarterback.
Texas A&M over Florida - Just because it feels like a trap for the Gators.
Miami (FL) over Kansas State - Purple kitty cats = overrated.
Auburn over Mississippi State - Always a close game, this could go either way.
Missouri over Georgia - I'm leaning on the slim chance I think the Tigers have. It's at home, it's on ESPN2, Georgia still have several suspended, and did you see how many yards the Buffalo running back had on the Dawgs last week??? Buffalo?
Last Week: 6-4 (34 pts)
NFL Season/Week 1 Picks
Giants over Cowboys - Sticking with the champs.
Bears over Colts - Staying away from the chumps.
Eagles over Browns - Staying away from the future chumps.
Lions over Rams - Detroit's still healthy, don't worry, they'll have 4-5 key injuries and stumble to 6-10.
Patriots over Titans - Why is it every year, someone says the Patriots could go 16-0, and I don't think they're crazy?
Chiefs over Falcons - Just like the Lions, when the Chiefs are healthy they should win at home... probably looking at 8-8 this year.
Vikings over Jaguars - Picking against Blaine Gabbert until he figures out how to take a 7-step drop and throw with pressure in his face.
Saints over Redskins - Nearly impressed with RG3 enough to take the upset pick, but give it a few more weeks.
Bills over Jets - Clearly the Jets have no idea how to manage a team. If you bring someone in to sell tickets, he shouldn't be on the bench.
Texans over Dolphins - Some say Tannehill got a bad shake at Texas A&M because his receivers drops accounted for like 65% of his incompletions. Not sure how throwing to the Dolphins receivers will change that..
Packers over 49ers - Wait, aren't the 2 best teams in the conference not supposed to play until 2 weeks before the Super Bowl?
Seahawks over Cardinals - Four guys who think they should be starting at quarterback in the NFL. Number of wins as a starter between them? Less than 15.
Panthers over Buccaneers - I'm riding the "Cam Newton will not have a sophomore slump" train until it derails... sometime around week 7.
Steelers over Broncos - If Manning survives the season, I'm hiring his surgeon to be on call for my son throughout his athletic career.
Ravens over Bengals - Might regret this pick in the Bengals can play run defense.
Chargers over Raiders - By less than a touchdown, mark my words.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Dear Canada, About What Happened...
Well, a week has gone by and it's time for me to update my Olympic coverage. The USA has both teams in the women's beach volleyball final, the men crashed and burned. The women's track team is raking in the medals, the men are struggling. Men's and women's basketball teams are easing into the semifinals. Women's volleyball is also in the semis and the men got upset by Italy in the quarters. Swimming is over and there is not much else to pay attention to or US fans... oh, yeah, that little women's soccer final. That's kind of important.
That semifinal win over Canada was just about as amazing as the win over Brazil in the '11 World Cup. The USWNT (US Women's National Team) seems to have a never-die attitude and is relentless in getting to the goal. They apparently also have a reputation for playing "overly physical." Since being down 0-2 to France in the opening game they hadn't given up a goal until the semifinals. But, they are no longer invincible. They got lucky that France, Sweden, Brazil and Japan were on the opposite side of the bracket... remember how they had trouble with all four teams in '11? Even more luck came their way when Canada beat the UK (who hadn't been scored on at that point) with home-field advantage.
Luck seems to be what won this last game for them. Rapinoe's corner kick goal, the stalling call, the hand-ball call... all lucky breaks, essentially. But an unlucky loss is hard to swallow, just ask the Canadian players that fell that the game was stolen from them. Allow me to drop some classic Shallow Speculations analysis on this game to quiet the complainers from the north without sounding too much like a homer.
First, Canada is a solid team. Are the world-class?? Not quite. Sinclair is an all-time great, and Tancredi is a star, but beyond that they just a solid team. You could argue, depending on the style of soccer you prefer, that the US women would make up 50-60% of any all-world team right now. Canada road some solid coaching and a ton of emotion and momentum into a solid finish. (They need to get their shit together if they want the bronze. They could easy fold under the weight of that tough loss and get drilled by a solid French team tomorrow, but they could also come out with passion and purpose and win the bronze 3-0.)
Second, I wasn't able to confirm this with stats, but a 1-goal lead is NEVER safe in soccer... ask Brazil, or ANYONE. You never know what will happen. If you lose a game when you never lead by more than a single goal, you can only be mad at yourself.
Along those lines, my biggest complaint about soccer, besides the flopping, is the stalling, which is somewhat related. Remember in the US/Brazil game in '11 how that Brazilian player flopped and faked an injury for over 2 minutes? The US got that time back and scored the tying goal... karma. I'm not saying Canadian players were faking injuries, but they were sure stalling. FIFA needs to change the rules... not so much a shot clock, but a limit on the amount of time you can possess the ball in your defensive half. Water polo, lacrosse, and other sports have similar rules. Trust me, it will make the game more exciting and hopefully boost scoring... a major complaint from those who don't like soccer.
Finally, I would like to address the Canadian complaints about officiating. No sports fan can ever say they haven't complained about officiating when their team loses a tough game (legitimately or not), so this may sound hypocritical. First, for the Canadian coach to "call out" the USWNT for being "overly physical" is ridiculous. Soccer is contact sport. If you aren't physical, you aren't winning. Sure, there is a fine line between physical and illegal, but the best way to combat an "overly physical" team is to match their physicality. Second, Rapinoe's corner-kick goal was essentially an own goal. Why was no Canadian player covering the near post? Why, when the ball was played extremely close to the far post, were the Canadian defenders attacking the ball in the direction of their goal? They were asking for it to deflect off of them and into the goal. Third, the penalty on the goalie for stalling is, in fact, silly. It's never called. That doesn't change the fact that it is a violation of the rules. Just like Brazil getting karma for faking injuries in '11, Canada was karmacally punished for their stalling. Finally, the hand-ball. A hand-ball is a hand-ball. Forget the discussion of intent. I'll buy "accidental" when the ball hits your arm while your arm is at your side, like you're standing there like a poll. It's not an accident when it hits your arm when it's up in the air, especially when it's shielding your face. It's soccer, if the ball comes to your face, you should head it down, or jump up and chest it down. Any time a shot hits a defenders arm when they are between the shooter and the goal, you have to assume they were doing their job and preventing a goal... thus, a penalty. You cannot expect the official to determine intent in the heat of the moment... the NFL is trying to, with their hard hitting crack-down, but still.
It all comes down to the fact that Canada was never up by more than 1 goal, they could have applied more offensive pressure when they were ahead late (instead of stalling), they could have stopped the penalty kick without a handball, and their goalie could have stopped Wombach's penalty as well... (plus, they could have not let Morgan score the winner with like 20 seconds to go) any one of those things would have won the game for them. Instead, they are left to complain like sports are supposed to be fair or something.
That semifinal win over Canada was just about as amazing as the win over Brazil in the '11 World Cup. The USWNT (US Women's National Team) seems to have a never-die attitude and is relentless in getting to the goal. They apparently also have a reputation for playing "overly physical." Since being down 0-2 to France in the opening game they hadn't given up a goal until the semifinals. But, they are no longer invincible. They got lucky that France, Sweden, Brazil and Japan were on the opposite side of the bracket... remember how they had trouble with all four teams in '11? Even more luck came their way when Canada beat the UK (who hadn't been scored on at that point) with home-field advantage.
Luck seems to be what won this last game for them. Rapinoe's corner kick goal, the stalling call, the hand-ball call... all lucky breaks, essentially. But an unlucky loss is hard to swallow, just ask the Canadian players that fell that the game was stolen from them. Allow me to drop some classic Shallow Speculations analysis on this game to quiet the complainers from the north without sounding too much like a homer.
First, Canada is a solid team. Are the world-class?? Not quite. Sinclair is an all-time great, and Tancredi is a star, but beyond that they just a solid team. You could argue, depending on the style of soccer you prefer, that the US women would make up 50-60% of any all-world team right now. Canada road some solid coaching and a ton of emotion and momentum into a solid finish. (They need to get their shit together if they want the bronze. They could easy fold under the weight of that tough loss and get drilled by a solid French team tomorrow, but they could also come out with passion and purpose and win the bronze 3-0.)
Second, I wasn't able to confirm this with stats, but a 1-goal lead is NEVER safe in soccer... ask Brazil, or ANYONE. You never know what will happen. If you lose a game when you never lead by more than a single goal, you can only be mad at yourself.
Along those lines, my biggest complaint about soccer, besides the flopping, is the stalling, which is somewhat related. Remember in the US/Brazil game in '11 how that Brazilian player flopped and faked an injury for over 2 minutes? The US got that time back and scored the tying goal... karma. I'm not saying Canadian players were faking injuries, but they were sure stalling. FIFA needs to change the rules... not so much a shot clock, but a limit on the amount of time you can possess the ball in your defensive half. Water polo, lacrosse, and other sports have similar rules. Trust me, it will make the game more exciting and hopefully boost scoring... a major complaint from those who don't like soccer.
Finally, I would like to address the Canadian complaints about officiating. No sports fan can ever say they haven't complained about officiating when their team loses a tough game (legitimately or not), so this may sound hypocritical. First, for the Canadian coach to "call out" the USWNT for being "overly physical" is ridiculous. Soccer is contact sport. If you aren't physical, you aren't winning. Sure, there is a fine line between physical and illegal, but the best way to combat an "overly physical" team is to match their physicality. Second, Rapinoe's corner-kick goal was essentially an own goal. Why was no Canadian player covering the near post? Why, when the ball was played extremely close to the far post, were the Canadian defenders attacking the ball in the direction of their goal? They were asking for it to deflect off of them and into the goal. Third, the penalty on the goalie for stalling is, in fact, silly. It's never called. That doesn't change the fact that it is a violation of the rules. Just like Brazil getting karma for faking injuries in '11, Canada was karmacally punished for their stalling. Finally, the hand-ball. A hand-ball is a hand-ball. Forget the discussion of intent. I'll buy "accidental" when the ball hits your arm while your arm is at your side, like you're standing there like a poll. It's not an accident when it hits your arm when it's up in the air, especially when it's shielding your face. It's soccer, if the ball comes to your face, you should head it down, or jump up and chest it down. Any time a shot hits a defenders arm when they are between the shooter and the goal, you have to assume they were doing their job and preventing a goal... thus, a penalty. You cannot expect the official to determine intent in the heat of the moment... the NFL is trying to, with their hard hitting crack-down, but still.
It all comes down to the fact that Canada was never up by more than 1 goal, they could have applied more offensive pressure when they were ahead late (instead of stalling), they could have stopped the penalty kick without a handball, and their goalie could have stopped Wombach's penalty as well... (plus, they could have not let Morgan score the winner with like 20 seconds to go) any one of those things would have won the game for them. Instead, they are left to complain like sports are supposed to be fair or something.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Olympic Ring Toss
Wouldn't ring toss be a fun Olympic event to watch??
I thought I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the Olympics with you all. Every four years, the world's greatest athletes (and some folks who excel at games) gather in a large city for shiny pieces of metal and the adoration (or shame of their country.
I've made my opinions of the Olympics obvious before. I really enjoy the country versus country aspect... maybe because Team USA is the one team I cheer for that isn't terrible or stuck in mediocrity. I don't remember any Olympics prior to Barcelona '92, so I didn't experience much of the "us vs. them" drama during the Cold War with the USSR (and even at that point Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia were splitting up). I still want the USA to win everything they possibly can. I want to see all the US athletes compete, especially when there is medal at stake. Also, there are a few sports (basketball, track, soccer, volleyball) that I really want to follow closely. That being said, here are my thoughts on London 2012 so far:
- London??? Really? Ok, I can come to terms with the time difference... and at least our athletes are in a country that doesn't hate us (thank God the Olympics will probably never be in Tehran). But I am seriously looking forward to Rio '16... no more tape delays.
- The Olympics always have several storylines that end up being no big deal, and several storylines come out of nowhere. The Phelps/Lochte rivalry is nothing to write about, but the success of the Chinese female swimmers is a surprise.
- I started out being REALLY mad at NBC for their coverage and the lack of excitement because of athletes and reporters Tweeting/Facebooking results in real-time, ruining the surprise and drama on TV. Now, I've begun to forgive them. I'm the one following people on Twitter and checking status updates like a hawk; NBC is just trying to have something to run in prime time so their coverage can sell ads. They've moved the time consuming team sports to NBC Sports and MSNBC, which sucks if you don't have NBC Sports (I haven't seen a second of men's basketball or women's soccer). At least it's not terrible coverage, and they have quality broadcasters (Al Michaels to Dan Patrick to Brian Williams to Bob Costas is a solid line up).
- Let's talk Phelps vs. Lochte... it seems like heading into this Olympics, most people were fed up with Phelps and really excited about the results Lochte was producing. Phelps had turned into the "villian" and Lochte was the likeable hero. So far, while Phelps has not been up to his standard (or our ridiculously high expectations), he was not the one that got passed on the final lap of the 400 Free relay, giving France revenge for the US upset in '08. Ease up on Phelps... and Lochte for that matter. They are on the same team and appear to be great friends. We can't win EVERY medal.
- Speaking of "disappointments"... our gymnastics teams were both expected to win several medals (and favorites to get gold), and we had the defending individual all-around World Champion Jordyn Weiber. Well, a funny thing happened during qualifying... Weiber had too many mistakes and missed out on the individual all-around because, even though she had the 4th-best score, you can only have 2 athletes per country. Then the men seemed to have the same issues and finished 5th in the team competition (at least Danel Leyva made up for it last night with that great come back and the women won team gold). Gymnasts rarely make two Olympics, unless they are VERY young in the first one or stay really good into their 20s. We need to give these kids a break... they are KIDS remember. Poor Jordyn Weiber couldn't even talk to the press after she missed out on the all-around because of a technicality. Some of the deductions the judges are taking off can't even be seen by a normal person. If they haven't been in the Olympics before, there is no way to train for the pressure they will feel while throwing and contorting their body around the gym.
Some US surprises so far...
- Men's archery beat South Korea in the semi-finals... they lost the gold-medal match, but they ousted the top ranked team to get silver.
- We have 4 good beach volleyball teams. How awesome would it be to win 2 golds AND 2 silvers.
- John Isner made the quarterfinals of the men's tennis tournament.
- The women's soccer team has played stellar defense since giving up two goals in the first twenty minutes to France. Also, the three teams that can beat them (Brazil, Japan and Sweden) are on the other side of the bracket (but watch out for UK, they beat Brazil).
- Gabby Douglas filled in nicely for Jordyn Weiber in the all-around winning gold.
- Missy Elliott and Allison Schmidt... nuff said.
Some US "concerns"...
- The Women's basketball team has seemed sluggish to start games off. The second team of Whalen, McCoughtry, Augustus, Moore, and Cash has been playing better defense and with more energy.
- There is no men's soccer team... let that sink in for a little.
- China maintains the medal count lead into today... it's time to kick it in high gear.
I'll post some final thoughts when the events are completed... hopefully a comprehensive review of how the USA dominated down the stretch.
I thought I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the Olympics with you all. Every four years, the world's greatest athletes (and some folks who excel at games) gather in a large city for shiny pieces of metal and the adoration (or shame of their country.
I've made my opinions of the Olympics obvious before. I really enjoy the country versus country aspect... maybe because Team USA is the one team I cheer for that isn't terrible or stuck in mediocrity. I don't remember any Olympics prior to Barcelona '92, so I didn't experience much of the "us vs. them" drama during the Cold War with the USSR (and even at that point Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia were splitting up). I still want the USA to win everything they possibly can. I want to see all the US athletes compete, especially when there is medal at stake. Also, there are a few sports (basketball, track, soccer, volleyball) that I really want to follow closely. That being said, here are my thoughts on London 2012 so far:
- London??? Really? Ok, I can come to terms with the time difference... and at least our athletes are in a country that doesn't hate us (thank God the Olympics will probably never be in Tehran). But I am seriously looking forward to Rio '16... no more tape delays.
- The Olympics always have several storylines that end up being no big deal, and several storylines come out of nowhere. The Phelps/Lochte rivalry is nothing to write about, but the success of the Chinese female swimmers is a surprise.
- I started out being REALLY mad at NBC for their coverage and the lack of excitement because of athletes and reporters Tweeting/Facebooking results in real-time, ruining the surprise and drama on TV. Now, I've begun to forgive them. I'm the one following people on Twitter and checking status updates like a hawk; NBC is just trying to have something to run in prime time so their coverage can sell ads. They've moved the time consuming team sports to NBC Sports and MSNBC, which sucks if you don't have NBC Sports (I haven't seen a second of men's basketball or women's soccer). At least it's not terrible coverage, and they have quality broadcasters (Al Michaels to Dan Patrick to Brian Williams to Bob Costas is a solid line up).
- Let's talk Phelps vs. Lochte... it seems like heading into this Olympics, most people were fed up with Phelps and really excited about the results Lochte was producing. Phelps had turned into the "villian" and Lochte was the likeable hero. So far, while Phelps has not been up to his standard (or our ridiculously high expectations), he was not the one that got passed on the final lap of the 400 Free relay, giving France revenge for the US upset in '08. Ease up on Phelps... and Lochte for that matter. They are on the same team and appear to be great friends. We can't win EVERY medal.
- Speaking of "disappointments"... our gymnastics teams were both expected to win several medals (and favorites to get gold), and we had the defending individual all-around World Champion Jordyn Weiber. Well, a funny thing happened during qualifying... Weiber had too many mistakes and missed out on the individual all-around because, even though she had the 4th-best score, you can only have 2 athletes per country. Then the men seemed to have the same issues and finished 5th in the team competition (at least Danel Leyva made up for it last night with that great come back and the women won team gold). Gymnasts rarely make two Olympics, unless they are VERY young in the first one or stay really good into their 20s. We need to give these kids a break... they are KIDS remember. Poor Jordyn Weiber couldn't even talk to the press after she missed out on the all-around because of a technicality. Some of the deductions the judges are taking off can't even be seen by a normal person. If they haven't been in the Olympics before, there is no way to train for the pressure they will feel while throwing and contorting their body around the gym.
Some US surprises so far...
- Men's archery beat South Korea in the semi-finals... they lost the gold-medal match, but they ousted the top ranked team to get silver.
- We have 4 good beach volleyball teams. How awesome would it be to win 2 golds AND 2 silvers.
- John Isner made the quarterfinals of the men's tennis tournament.
- The women's soccer team has played stellar defense since giving up two goals in the first twenty minutes to France. Also, the three teams that can beat them (Brazil, Japan and Sweden) are on the other side of the bracket (but watch out for UK, they beat Brazil).
- Gabby Douglas filled in nicely for Jordyn Weiber in the all-around winning gold.
- Missy Elliott and Allison Schmidt... nuff said.
Some US "concerns"...
- The Women's basketball team has seemed sluggish to start games off. The second team of Whalen, McCoughtry, Augustus, Moore, and Cash has been playing better defense and with more energy.
- There is no men's soccer team... let that sink in for a little.
- China maintains the medal count lead into today... it's time to kick it in high gear.
I'll post some final thoughts when the events are completed... hopefully a comprehensive review of how the USA dominated down the stretch.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Parenting is a Sport
I have been a father for over a year now (the main reason I have failed to keep this blog updated) and I feel like it's about time for me to impart some wisdom and hopefully give you a few laughs.
I don't claim to be a super-dad or anything like that, but I have received plenty of encouragement that I am doing a better job than a dead-beat dad. My son has given me plenty of opportunities to learn lessions... and hopefully they've stuck with me.
Maybe it's the type of person I am (obsessed with sports), or the constant metaphorical references to aspects of life being like sports or vice versa, but I like to think of parenting as a sport. Parents are athletes. Not in the typical sense but in the way they approach their task. Allow me to demostrate.
- Parenting requires teamwork; trust your teammates and communicate
- Practicing the fundamentals might not be fun, but it's necessary; you need a solid base of skills before you can up your game.
- Practice makes perfect; yes, Allen Iverson, we are talking about practice... man.
- Be prepared every day; have a gameplan.
- Sometimes gameplans fall apart; be flexible and make adjustments on the fly.
- Uniforms get dirty; deal with it.
- It's okay to play zone defense from time to time.
- Don't get flashy, don't show-boat, don't brag; you won't make many friends.
- We don't do it for the money or the accolades; we do it for the love of the game.
- A win is a win is a win; it doesn't have to be perfect.
- Learn all you can from the veterans.
- The sooner you "turn pro" the more pressure their will be to succeed.
- The more effort you put in, the sweeter the rewards will be.
We are coming up on football season and you know I'll have plenty of posts to come, but I would like to post more about parenting and my fathering experiences. If you have any topics you want me to discuss, please comment and I will do my best.
I'm hoping this blog can be a small second income for me, so please keep reading. If you feel like clicking on an add, that'd be even better, I get something like $1 everytime you do.
I don't claim to be a super-dad or anything like that, but I have received plenty of encouragement that I am doing a better job than a dead-beat dad. My son has given me plenty of opportunities to learn lessions... and hopefully they've stuck with me.
Maybe it's the type of person I am (obsessed with sports), or the constant metaphorical references to aspects of life being like sports or vice versa, but I like to think of parenting as a sport. Parents are athletes. Not in the typical sense but in the way they approach their task. Allow me to demostrate.
- Parenting requires teamwork; trust your teammates and communicate
- Practicing the fundamentals might not be fun, but it's necessary; you need a solid base of skills before you can up your game.
- Practice makes perfect; yes, Allen Iverson, we are talking about practice... man.
- Be prepared every day; have a gameplan.
- Sometimes gameplans fall apart; be flexible and make adjustments on the fly.
- Uniforms get dirty; deal with it.
- It's okay to play zone defense from time to time.
- Don't get flashy, don't show-boat, don't brag; you won't make many friends.
- We don't do it for the money or the accolades; we do it for the love of the game.
- A win is a win is a win; it doesn't have to be perfect.
- Learn all you can from the veterans.
- The sooner you "turn pro" the more pressure their will be to succeed.
- The more effort you put in, the sweeter the rewards will be.
We are coming up on football season and you know I'll have plenty of posts to come, but I would like to post more about parenting and my fathering experiences. If you have any topics you want me to discuss, please comment and I will do my best.
I'm hoping this blog can be a small second income for me, so please keep reading. If you feel like clicking on an add, that'd be even better, I get something like $1 everytime you do.
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