Some of you may be wondering where I've been...
Well I just turned in a final draft of my 93-page thesis, so... GET OFF MY BACK!
What's happened since my last post?
- Duke won the National Championship (which I actually predicted in one of my brackets) nine years after there last title, which was nine years after their first title.
- Tiger Woods returned to golf and was mediocre... I'd love to throw in a joke about him finishing 5 strokes behind, but he makes my brain hurt and can go to hell.
- The baseball season started, this time in the U.S., and the Royals have already been mathematically eliminated (just kidding, it's the Orioles that have been eliminated already).
- The NHL and NBA playoffs started... apparently the NHL hasn't heard of home-ice advantage.
- The NFL Draft is tomorrow and I can't wait.
Analysis of Duke...
Did the Dukies get a favorable draw? A 16 seed, an over-rated Cal, a depleted Purdue, an inexperienced Baylor, a depleted West Virginia, and "the Cinderella that comes close but never wins" Butler... I'd say it wasn't easy, but it was favorable. Look at Butler's draw... the 12-seed every was picking UTEP, a vastly underrated Murray State, a depleted-but-still-favored Syracuse, a dangerous K-State, the experienced Michigan State, and an all-time-great Duke. If Gordon Haywood makes one of the two shots in the final seconds, Butler's run goes down in history as THE toughest (maybe second to NC State's in '84 or Kansas' in '88).
Speaking of Gordon Haywood's final two shots...
Did he really fade away from a slow-moving big man with 4 fouls on a drive (when the big man could not have drawn the charge because he was the secondary defender)? Was he intimidated? Did he think his shot was better than a lay-up attempt with a possible foul? If LeBron is in that situation, he goes to the rack and gets at least 2 points out of it. Hell, even Kobe wouldn't have shied away from the contact. Haywood's move was akin to Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Allen Iverson... and how many titles do those guys have?
I try for the 3-point play, sink my free-throws and play defense. But let's say he misses the lay-up and no foul is called. He still has the final shot... which there was nothing wrong with. Although, why can't any team run the double-screen, home-run pass at the opposite basket play. You know you're getting 4-on-4 because Duke (of all teams) has to guard the inbounder. The big men back-screen for the speed guys (like Howard did for Haywood, only before the inbounds) and the speed guys are flying towards the opposite basket with the ball in the air. The inbounder throws the hail mary for a possible lay-up... some day I'll be coaching a team and have a chance to run this, and mark my words, it will work.
By the way... how does Zoubek miss that second free-throw?? Take the points! Butler had like 6 points in the final 10 minutes of that game, even if they hit the three and send the game to overtime, you think they are going to pour in points in overtime?? It's like in football when you score a touchdown to go up 5... you NEVER kick the extra point, you ALWAYS go for 2, no matter how much time is left. In basketball when you are shooting 2 and up 1, ALWAYS try to make both... being up 3 is ALWAYS better than being up 2! It forces the other team to make the 3-pointer and gives your defense more flexibility... like the ability to foul if you get beat in the open court. Then they would have to intentionally miss the second free throw.
On Tiger...
Welcome to the list of guys I will always root against! Oh, and your new Nike commercial is offensive to anyone with intelligence.
On the start of baseball...
Rays, Twins, Mariners, Yankees in the AL.
Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers, Marlins in the NL.
Cardinals over Twins in 5...
Give Pujols and Mauer their MVPs back, they'll be keeping them another year.
Cy Youngs go to Carpenter and King Felix. (Don't forget, I called the Cy Youngs right last year)
On the NHL Playoffs...
Who cares? Capitals over Blackhawks in 5.
On the NBA Playoffs...
Cavs over Bulls in 4, Magic over Bobcats in 5, Hawks over Bucks in 4, Heat over Celtics in 7.
Lakers over Zombie Sonics in 4, Mavs over Spurs in 7, Blazers over Suns in 7, Nuggets over Jazz in 7.
Cavs over Heat in 5, Hawks over Magic in 7, Lakers over Nuggets in 7, Mavs over Blazers in 5.
Cavs over Hawks in 7, Mavs over Lakers in 7.
Cavs over Mavs in 4 (once LeBron gets there, there is no hope for anyone)
On the NFL Draft...
Moving it to Thursday sucks, but I guess that's the winds of change talking. I don't do a Mock Draft because trades are possible and I don't have a complete grasp of the whole sport yet. If I were a GM, I'd draft the best player available for a position I've identified as a need. I prefer the college game because salaries aren't an issue. If every pick had a locked salary (like the NBA) then the best player available makes the most sense... Look at what Michael Crabtree pulled last year. HE felt he was the best receiver. When he was the second receiver drafted (10th overall) he MADE the 49ers (the team nice enough to pick him) pay him MORE than the first receiver taken (Darius Heywood-Bay... who can't catch).
If I'm the Rams, I take Mr. Suh. Sure, he's a sworn enemy (being from Nebraska), but what other defensive tackle can win games for you... seriously? The only way Sam Bradford succeeds in the NFL is if he is given time to learn under a veteran who is on his way out (say Favre) who has a great offensive line (say the Vikings). Would I try to trade up if I'm the Vikings? NO. I might trade up in the second for Colt McCoy, or wait until the later rounds and get Tony Pike.
How about this... here is a breakdown of late-rounders to watch by position:
QB - Dan LeFevour, Cent. Michigan - For quarterbacks, I like winners who are "multi-tooled." LeFevour has the arm, the legs, the head, and the guts. He'll do damage for someone.
RB - Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech - Everyone's been hating on him since the combine, but you don't torch ACC defenses and fade into obscurity. He's a workhorse-like guy who would be great paired with a speedy pass catcher or blocking H-back.
WR - Seyi Ajirotutu, Fresno State - When you are a receiver for a team that runs the ball, runs the ball, then runs it some more, it's hard to make a name for yourself as a receiver. I saw this guy make some great catches in big moments last year.
TE - Colin Peek, Alabama - He just won a National Title while catching a bunch of balls in big moments as the third option or worse. If his QB trusted him, so can yours.
FB - John Conner, Kentucky - If only for his name and nothing else.
OT - Nic Richmond, TCU - 6'-7"? And how often did you see TCU loose last year?
OG - Kurtis Gregory, Missouri - It's hard not get called for holding a lot when you block for the spread and your idiot quarterback won't get rid of the ball... plus, when Mizzou ran the ball, he was a beast.
C - John Malecki, Pittsburgh - Remember how well Pitt ran the ball last year?
DT - Jaron Baston, Missouri - Sift through the mess at the top of this position, then look for a run-stopper with huge motor. The only guy who can say he helped sack Todd Reesing (and win a game) twice in the same end zone in the same career.
DE - George Selvie, South Florida - At what point did the most feared pass rusher in the Big East get passed by his teammate no one had heard of in 2008? Just because Pierre-Paul beat him to several sacks doesn't diminish the effect he could have as the #2 pass rusher.
OLB - A.J. Edds, Iowa - The guy who came after Chad Greenway and A.J. Hawk at an underrated Linebacker U? No doubt.
ILB - Ryan D'Imperio, Rutgers - Another pick just for the name.
CB - Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Indiana (PA) - There's just something about corners from small schools, with hard to pronounce names, and hyphenated last names... and this guy has all three.
S - Kam Chancellor, Virginia Tech - This kid hits like a freight train.
I'll be back to do a draft rap up later. Hope this holds you over until then
