Tomorrow is the first official day of winter, but here in Columbia, it hit early. Snow and 30+ mph winds... oh joy. Not sure which is dislike the most, extreme winters or extreme summers. I'd rather be cold than hot, but I like driving with my windows down, too.
Everyone hunker down and enjoy the holidays. Next week's blog will be on Saturday, FYI.
NFL Week 16
- Colts over Chiefs... My LOCK of the week. I think the temporary injunction on ripping the Chiefs has ended, now it's just sad. I can't wait to see how they screw up the #1 draft pick.
- Patriots over Jaguars... the worst part about the Chiefs' situation? The Jaguars. It's never fun to have a team with clearer needs and a brighter (possibly) future breathing down your necks. I'd much rather be picking #2 this year... actually, I rather be at like 5-10, but that's because I have no idea who I would take.
- Broncos over Browns... knowing that the Patriots could steal their #2 seed at the first slip up will keep the New Mannings churning.
- Redskins over Eagles... this is where we find out how much "drive", "motivation", and "momentum" mean when need to win out. The 'Skins are hot, a roll to the #4 seed is likely, but they can't stop now.
- Packers over Titans... speaking of "can't stop now," can the Packers carry momentum (unlike last year) into the playoffs? Maybe playing out off the Wild Card round will actually help.
- Panthers over Raiders... anytime half your wins are against the Chiefs, you can't be trusted... although the Panthers did lose to the Chiefs.
- Bears over Cardinals... I'm glad Cutler's production dropped off, although I feel for Bears fans, he is approaching the cliff of QB despair... how quickly do you think the Cardinals trade for Sanchez? 10 minutes?
- Texans over Vikings... it's quite simple: stop Adrian Peterson for 60 minutes and lock down home field for the entire playoffs (seriously, the Super Bowl is in New Orleans, only the Falcons are close to having as easy a road trip).
- Saints over Cowboys... Brees loves Jerry's World. This Saints team would be in the playoffs if the NFL hadn't crippled them with unnecessary suspensions.
- Falcons over Lions... similar situation as the Texans, just keep from screwing up.
- Dolphins over Bills... not sure what to say. It's entirely possible we could finish with 3 rookie QBs winning 8 or more games... unheard of.
- Jets over Chargers... honestly, right now, I think Greg McElroy is a better QB than Phillip Rivers. What if the Jets and Chargers just trade QBs after this game? Sanchez close to home, and a fresh start for Rivers. Makes sense, right?
- Bengals over Steelers... most people assume that this is where the Steelers' playoff experience takes over. Not with their offensive line.
- Buccaneers over Rams... how do you respond to losing by 41? Good question. This game is a crap shoot.
- Giants over Ravens... you can't keep losing to decent teams and just expect to pick up the slack when it really matters, Ravens. I honestly think the Bengals win the AFC North. The Giants won't go quietly into the night either.
- Seahawks over 49ers... the Seahawks at home? The way they've been scoring? As much as I like the Niners, they weren't able to beat the Rams this year.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 144-79
Bowl Picks: 2-0 (29 pts)... I'm pretty sure I'll remember the 2012 New Mexico Bowl if not because I went from being "so very wrong" to "right" in 48 seconds of football. Great game.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
NFL 15 and Bowl Game Picks
NFL Week 15 Picks
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Lions over Cardinals - the LOCK of the week has officially lost its luster after the Steelers no-show, but this is my LOCK of the week. If I need to explain beyond the Cardinals 9-game losing streak, the rest of the picks will do just that.
Raiders over Chiefs - I can't lock the Raiders and the Chiefs had their emotional win and passed on their chance to carry that momentum. They got beat up by the Browns, and I don't expect them to hold up on the road this week.
Redskins over Browns - the Skins are rolling, and RG3 should be good to go, but, even though I could lock either team, I'm not comfortable enough with the Skins defense and the Browns aren't THAT bad.
Rams over Vikings - I could lock either team, but the Rams are semi-hot and playing solid defense against bad teams. I think the Vikings might be frauds.
Saints over Buccaneers - both teams are lockable, but this is a toss up. Lots to like about both teams, and lots to fear. I'm taking the home team.
Dolphins over Jaguars - another game that both teams are available to lock, and both teams are bad enough to stay the hell away from.
Jets over Titans - the final game where both teams are available to lock, and again, neither is strong enough to put ANY confidence into.
Patriots over 49ers - the next four games feature teams I could not lock. I expect the Patriots to continue to win in Primetime against quality teams because the offense will neutralize the opponent's defensive strength and the defense will load up against the run.
Broncos over Ravens - who do you think is playing more like it was 8-10 years ago, Manning or the Ravens defense?
Packers over Bears - if the Bears can lose to the Vikings, I can't trust them in this game.
Falcons over Giants - I'm thinking the Falcons get revenge for last year's playoff loss, but the Giants are a good road team, it's a toss up.
Texans over Colts - I could lock the Colts, but I wouldn't want to be playing the Texans after Monday night, especially at home. They'll bring the Colts back down to earth.
Eagle over Bengals - we are back to going against the road team on Thursday night, especially after they couldn't close out the Cowboys at home, so can't lock the Bengals, and I locked the Eagles in Week 1.
Seahawks over Bills - I could lock the Seahawks, but they are not great on the road and are playing an East coast game (sure, it's a late start, but still), and I locked the Bills in Week 3.
Chargers over Panthers - already locked the Chargers in that Thursday nighter against the Chiefs, the Panthers have a chance, it could actually be a good game unless either coach decides to coach.
Cowboys over Steelers - I could lock the Cowboys at home coming off a come back win in Cincinnati, but who does that? And I'm definitely not picking the Steelers again after they ruined my streak.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 134-73
Bowl Game Extravaganza
I picked this years games based on confidence, I'm listing them from least confident to most confident.
Little Caeser's Bowl - Central Michigan over Western Kentucky - I know nothing about either team, other than they are lucky to be there, so take the team with a short drive to the game (in Detroit).
Military Bowl - San Jose State over Bowling Green - I like the Spartan's offense and they won a few decent games, but I'm hesitant because they are making the longest road trip of anyone.
Holiday Bowl - UCLA over Baylor - I know Baylor held k-State in check, but I can't imagine their defense holding up here, and it's a short drive for UCLA fans.
Alamo Bowl - Texas over Oregon State - oustide of their loss to k-State, Texas has been solid lately, and it might as well be a home game.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - LSU over Clemson - big game, should be a fun one to watch, but LSU beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Clemson.
Liberty Bowl - Tulsa over Iowa State - how is a rematch of a Week 1 game a good bowl match-up? Iowa State won at home in the first one, let's flip the script.
Gator Bowl - Mississippi State over Northwestern - totally going with the SEC > Big10 in bowl games theory.
Orange Bowl - Northern Illinois over Florida State - really hoping this happens, but I have no rationale other than FSU's inability to stop the Florida dual-threat running.
Fiesta Bowl - Oregon over Kansas State - no offense to k-State, but I'd love to see a 70-50 Oregon win.
Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M over Oklahoma - I stated my case against Manziel (or any spread QB) for the Heisman on Twitter, saying that their stats are entirely dependent on the offensive line, quality receivers, a running game, and a defense that keeps you in games so the running game is still a threat (reasons why you shouldn't lay all the blame on Franklin for Mizzou being unsuccessful in the SEC this year), that doesn't mean I don't think he is capable of beating ANYONE by himself right now.
Compass Bowl - Mississippi over Pittsburgh - don't know either team, going with SEC > Big East.
BCS Championship - Alabama over Notre Dame - this is not the result I want (other than the money it brings the other SEC teams), but I bet the Irish have the ball, down 7, with 2:30 to go, on their own 15... they don't have the offense to pull it out.
Rose Bowl - Stanford over Wisconsin - Wisconsin has three overtime losses and two others by 6 points total, but if Stanford's defense can hold own Oregon, I'll trust them here.
Idaho Potato Bowl - Utah State over Toledo - you gotta love what the WAC Champs have done this year. They're an upset of Wisconsin away from a BCS bowl.
New Mexico Bowl - Arizona over Nevada - the difference between Arizona's D vs. Nevada's O and Nevada's D vs. Arizona's O is enough for the Wildcats.
Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State over BYU - they beat Boise and it's a home game.
St. Petersburg Bowl - UCF over Ball State - home-ish game and strong running attack for the Knights.
New Orleans Bowl - LA-Lafayette over East Carolina - home-ish game and the Cajuns played a tougher schedule honestly (almost beat Florida).
Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State over Washington - imagine where the Broncos would be if they' have beaten a mediocre Michigan State team in Week 1.
Belk Bowl - Cincinnati over Duke - the Dukies were 6-2 at one point, they are lucky to be in the bowl game and don't have the defense to slow down Cincy.
Independence Bowl - LA-Monroe over Ohio - kind of a let-down for Ohio (starting the season as a BCS busting favorite then landing as the back-up pick for this bowl), and it's a home-ish game for the Warhawks.
Texas Bowl - Texas Tech over Minnesota - I can't trust Minnesota's defense against a prolific Big 12 offense.
Russell Athletic Bowl - Rutgers over Virginia Tech - nothing about the Hokies excites me, Rutgers' defense is full of future pros.
Armed Forces Bowl - Rice over Air Force - home-ish game for the Owls, plus Air Force lost some bad games this year.
Pinstripe Bowl - West Virginia over Syracuse - the Orange won some big games down the stretch, but they might struggle to stop Geno Smith.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - TCU over Michigan State - why did it take so long for BWW to sponsor a bowl game? Horned Frogs get a home-ish game against the mediocre-ist of mediocre Big10 teams.
Music City Bowl - Vanderbilt over NC State - not very many people are talking about the improved Vandy defense. I saw it first hand, they're soild, plus it's essentially a home game.
Capital One Bowl - Georgia over Nebraska - I'm supposed to trust a defense that gave up 70 points to Wisconsin? Never. Especially since the Bulldog defense will tear into Nebraska.
GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State over Arkansas State - they're hoping you'll watch for the commercials, then hit up their website. Dri Archer couldn't be stopped by Rutgers' defense, the Red Wolves don't stand a chance.
Fight Hunger Bowl - Arizona State over Navy - another case where my personal experience lends me to think Arizona State is the much better team.
Hawaii Bowl - Fresno State over Hawaii - June Jones returns to the islands... and gets demolished by a surprisingly solid Fresno team.
Outback Bowl - South Carolina over Michigan - once again, a Big10 team that was questionable all year on offense and defense is going up against an SEC team that barely lost 2 games. Who do you think I'm taking?
Orange Bowl - Florida over Louisville - the Cardinals are WAY overmatched here, it could be low-scoring and close, but only because Florida's offense could go vanilla.
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Oklahoma State over Purdue - while these teams are separated by 1 game in records, I don't see anyplace where Purdue is in the same ballpark as the Cowboys.
Sun Bowl - USC over Georgia Tech - decided USC offense rolling over Tech's defense was more probable than USC no-showing in disappointment.
It all kicks of on Saturday. Enjoy.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
2012 Final College Football Ranks... and NFL Week 14 Picks, I guess
I'll start with the less important stuff so it doesn't get burried under the rest of the blog. NFL Week 14 picks are first, then you will find my 2012 Final Rankings for College Football. The only rankings I will do all year. I will include some hypothetical BCS and playoff analysis as well.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
NFL Week 14
Broncos over Raiders - I know I've told you to stay away from from the road teams in Thursday night games on NFL Network, but there are a couple other factors in play here. First, Peyton Manning in a night game (not "national" broadcast, but the spotlight either way) and a clearly rolling Broncos against a clearly reeling Raiders. So, don't bet on the game, but I predict the Broncos will win.
Steelers over Chargers - my LOCK of the week. I wanted to lock the Buccaneers, but the way the Steelers beat the Ravens last week, I trust them against a cooked Chargers team. Plus it's a early start for a west coast team on the road.
Buccaneers over Eagles - again, I wanted to lock Tampa, but I liked the Chargers better and for some reason 11% of people were locking the Eagles. I still expect Doug Martin to have a strong day.
Falcons over Panthers - at some point the Falcons will have to win convincingly enough that the casual fan will say "gosh, they might be the best team in the league."
49ers over Dolphins - Colin Kaepernick versus Ryan Tannehill. Never thought I'd say that about an NFL game. Niners defense should strangle the Dolphins.
Giants over Saints - time to count the Saints out, they never quite got it together this year.
Seahawks over Cardinals - time to get used to the idea of two NFC West teams hosting playoff games.
Packers over Lions - time for the Packers to send some holiday cheer Suh's way.
Jets over Jaguars - not sure what to say about this game other than I hope the Jets defense doesn't give up any points or they'll have to resort to Greg McElroy again.
Ravens over Redskins - right now ESPN Sportsnation is split on picking this game. Not sure why. Sure, RG3 has looked magical in the last 2 games, but this is the Ravens defense we're talking about here.
Bills over Rams - the Bills are essentially out of the playoff chase and the Rams aren't... what a difference a half game (and a conference) make.
Colts over Titans - Luck has his boys rolling. Can't wait for the first round game where he takes the Colts to Denver to show Peyton what he's done with the place.
Bears over Vikings - the Bears have the Vikings number, I hope their offensive line holds up enough.
Patriots over Texans - Tom Brady at home on Monday night. If Aaron Rodgers can torch the Texans defense, Brady can too.
Bengals over Cowboys - I couldn't trust the Cowboys to tie my shoes correctly. Not saying they couldn't do it, just saying I would check their work.
Browns over Chiefs - I've said lots of things in this blog, and sometimes they can be mean or hurtful if the individual or team were to actually read this blog. This is my formal apology to the 2012 Kansas City Chiefs. Last weekend must have been hell for those guys, and I'm sure the hell will continue for many of those close to Jovan Belcher. They managed to play football (and WIN) on Sunday (I would have wanted to, but I can understand those that say they shouldn't have). I even tweeted that of all the things you could have called the 2012 Chiefs, "gutless" was not one of them. Boes this mean I have faith in them? Not to win, but I bet they will play harder. Could they win the rest of their games? Yes. I'm still picking against them for now... especially on the road.
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-6
Final College Picks
Last Week: 5-5 (34 pts)
Season: 87-53 (526 pts, 88th percentile)
College Football Final Ranking 2012
A quick explanation: These teams are the top 50 in RPI. I took their RPI, Strength of Schedule rank, total offense rank, total defense rank, points per game rank, and points allowed per game rank and averaged them. I created a new way of examining each team's record called Real Record. Each win is worth 1 point, each loss is -1 point; but each game is weighted by the other team's record. So a win over a 9-win team is 1.9 points, and a loss to a 4-loss team is -1.4 points. The result was also weighted based on location, +.25 for road wins and -.25 for home losses. All wins against FCS teams are worth .75 points only. Overtime victories get -.1 point per overtime, and overtime losses get +.1 points per overtime. For example, 10-2 Texas A&M had a 13.5 Real Record and 7-5 USC had a 4.1 Real Record. The teams were ranked 1-50 based on that and that rank was added to the average. Here are the rankings:
1: Texas A&M
2: Alabama (SEC Champ)
3: Oregon
4: Georgia
5: Notre Dame
6: Oklahoma
7: LSU
8: South Carolina
9: Kansas State (Big12 Champ)
10: Florida
11: Florida State (ACC Champ)
12: Stanford (Pac12 Champ)
13: Nebraska
14: Oregon State
15: Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
16: San Jose State
17: Michigan
18: Ohio State
19: Clemson
20: Fresno State (MWC Co-Champs, highest ranked, makes playoff)
21: Cincinnati
22: USC
23: Oklahoma State
24: Arizona State
25: Penn State
26: UCLA
27: Arkansas State (Sun Belt Champs)
28: Syracuse
29: Utah State (WAC Champs)
30: Northern Illinois (MAC Champs)
31: Texas
32:Vanderbilt
33: TCU
34: Baylor
35: Arizona
36: West Virginia
37: Mississippi State
38: San Diego State
39: North Carolina
40: Northwestern
41: Louisville (Big East Champs)
42: Ball State
43: Rutgers
44: Miami (FL)
45: Boise State
46: Toledo
47: Tulsa (C-USA Champs)
48: Kent State
49: Central Florida
50: Louisiana Tech
So, let's do away with the current BCS. My new idea is to take the 6 "lower tier" conference champs (Big East, C-USA, Sun Belt, MAC, MWC, and WAC) and have them play a round of play-in games. Those 3 winners join the 5 "upper tier" champs and the top 4 at large teams in a 12-team playoff (think Big East basketball tournament minus 1 team). The seeding would be done based on these ranks and teams would be reseeded each round.
So, let's say we take this year's results:
Play-In Round:
Fresno State vs. Tulsa
Arkansas State vs. Louisville
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Let's assume the higher seeded teams win those games, the next round would be:
Notre Dame vs. Utah State
Kansas State vs. Arkansas State
Florida State vs. Fresno State
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Again, let's assume the higher seeded teams win, here are the quarterfinals:
Texas A&M vs. Stanford
Alabama vs. Florida State
Oregon vs. Kansas State
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Here would be the semis and the final:
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Alabama vs. Oregon
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Here's how I predict this fictional playoff would go...
Tulsa, Louisville, and Northern Illinois win the play-ins.
Notre Dame beats Tulsa, K-State beats Louisville, Northern Illinois beats Florida State, and Stanford beats Wisconsin.
Then A&M beats NIU, Alabama beats Stanford, Oregon beats K-State, and Notre Dame beats Georgia.
Notre Dame beats A&M and 'Bama beats Oregon
Notre Dame beats 'Bama.
Done deal.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)