Is it just me or has the Tournament lost a little bit of luster. Sure, there are the underdog/cinderellas still out there (UNI, Cornell, St. Mary's, Washington... and Butler?), and there are the cagey 4/5/6-seeds (Michigan St., Purdue, Tennessee, Xavier... and Butler?) that may have been undervalued, and 6 of the top 8 seeds are still alive. I guess I'm just not sure who to root for... do I go with Cornell or UNI or Butler? Or do I go with a Big 12 team that has a favorable match-up line (Baylor, KSU)?
Tough call...
Midwest:
UNI over Michigan State... had the Panthers had to turn around and beat Sparty two days after pulling off the greatest upset since Bradley over kU, I would have taken Michigan State. But, they've had some time to re-focus, they seem like a smart team, and I see them getting a ton of points inside.
Ohio State over Tennessee... the Vols road has been anything but bumpy. I'd like to think their pressure defense should wear down the 6-deep Buckeyes, but I don't see them scoring much against the 2-3 zone.
East:
Kentucky over Cornell... they beat Temple and Wisconsin because neither team scores points. I'm pretty sure Kentucky is 10 times faster and scores much, much more.
Washington over WVU... Missouri was 4 or 5 makes away from pulling off the upset, and without depth at point, the Mountaineers are due to fall. Washington can play any style they need, WVU's only hope is to pull out the 1-3-1 early and force a ton of turnovers.
South:
Purdue over Duke... they're like a freight train... a pissed-off, out-of-control freight train. The pundits should take note. When a team dominates a strong conference for 90% of the season, then loses their best player and drops a few games down the stretch, give them the seed they deserved with the best player. Purdue is a 2 (maybe a 3). Flip them with Ohio State and everything is right in the world... watch out Dukies.
Baylor over St. Mary's... Udoh vs. Samhan. Wow. Take the lanky, agile, shot blocker.
West:
Syracuse over Butler... I just see the zone frustrating the smaller Bulldogs, it should be REAL close, though.
Xavier over KSU... they've got to fall at some point. They're too out-of-control, too whiny, too physical, too fast. They finally have an opponent with better guards and they're playing far away from Manhattan now.
Round 2: 11-5
Total: 36-12
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Round 2 Picks/Analysis
Awesome Round 1... enough upsets to keep it interesting and a ton a great games. The first four games of the tournament were decided by a total of 10 points with 3 overtimes... wow!
Midwest:
Kansas over Northern Iowa... usually it's good to pick against kU win they haven't been challenged for 3 or 4 games. Unfortunately for the Panthers, you never pick against kU when they've just lost or almost lost a game they should have won easily.
Michigan State over Maryland... even with all their distractions and troubles, the Spartans looked motivated and held on. Maryland will struggle with their strength.
Tennessee over Ohio... two people had Ohio and Murray State, I hope they didn't have the Bobcats in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ohio State over Georgia Tech... the Ramblin' Wreck was impressive, unfortunately the Buckeyes looked in top form.
West:
Gonzaga over Syracuse... well, I would have taken the Orange over FSU because the Seminoles are still looking up offense in the dictionary (or having some else do it for them, or is that the football team?). The Zags should shoot the Orange out of the gym, and without their center, Syracuse will try to force it too much.
Butler over Murray State... when I picked the Racers I thought they'd win by much more than 1 point, and the Bulldogs are too well coached.
Pittsburgh over Xavier... the X-men struggled to get it going against a good defense, and the Panthers' defense is much better than Minnesota's.
BYU over Kansas State... time for a wake-up call Wildcats. Jimmer Fredette is going to get to the free throw line about 60 times today, just watch.
East:
Kentucky over Wake Forest... the Wildcats looked TOO good... as in look out everyone else.
Cornell over Wisconsin... if the Ivy brains can score on Temple's defense, they can score on Wisconsin's defense.
Washington over New Mexico... the Pac-10 is no longer being laughed at after they went 2-0 versus the "best" conference, the Big East.
West Virginia over Missouri... I can't do it. We looked good yesterday, but not good enough. It will be close, but we need to hit more than 5 threes to win this one.
South:
Duke over California... what happened to Louisville's defense? Expect more from Coach K.
Texas A&M over Purdue... had Utah State pulled off the upset, I'd have Purdue. I think the Aggies are too much for Purdue without Hummell, especially the way they shot the ball yesterday.
Baylor over Old Dominion... the best game of day 3. These guys match up well and if ODU watched how SHSU defended the Bears, they have a shot. Unfortunately, Baylor may be too quick for ODU.
St. Mary's over Villanova... honestly, the Wildcats should have been voted off the island. Robert Morris out played them and deserved to win that game. My hat is off to the Colonials.
Round 1: 25-7 (better than Obama)
Midwest:
Kansas over Northern Iowa... usually it's good to pick against kU win they haven't been challenged for 3 or 4 games. Unfortunately for the Panthers, you never pick against kU when they've just lost or almost lost a game they should have won easily.
Michigan State over Maryland... even with all their distractions and troubles, the Spartans looked motivated and held on. Maryland will struggle with their strength.
Tennessee over Ohio... two people had Ohio and Murray State, I hope they didn't have the Bobcats in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ohio State over Georgia Tech... the Ramblin' Wreck was impressive, unfortunately the Buckeyes looked in top form.
West:
Gonzaga over Syracuse... well, I would have taken the Orange over FSU because the Seminoles are still looking up offense in the dictionary (or having some else do it for them, or is that the football team?). The Zags should shoot the Orange out of the gym, and without their center, Syracuse will try to force it too much.
Butler over Murray State... when I picked the Racers I thought they'd win by much more than 1 point, and the Bulldogs are too well coached.
Pittsburgh over Xavier... the X-men struggled to get it going against a good defense, and the Panthers' defense is much better than Minnesota's.
BYU over Kansas State... time for a wake-up call Wildcats. Jimmer Fredette is going to get to the free throw line about 60 times today, just watch.
East:
Kentucky over Wake Forest... the Wildcats looked TOO good... as in look out everyone else.
Cornell over Wisconsin... if the Ivy brains can score on Temple's defense, they can score on Wisconsin's defense.
Washington over New Mexico... the Pac-10 is no longer being laughed at after they went 2-0 versus the "best" conference, the Big East.
West Virginia over Missouri... I can't do it. We looked good yesterday, but not good enough. It will be close, but we need to hit more than 5 threes to win this one.
South:
Duke over California... what happened to Louisville's defense? Expect more from Coach K.
Texas A&M over Purdue... had Utah State pulled off the upset, I'd have Purdue. I think the Aggies are too much for Purdue without Hummell, especially the way they shot the ball yesterday.
Baylor over Old Dominion... the best game of day 3. These guys match up well and if ODU watched how SHSU defended the Bears, they have a shot. Unfortunately, Baylor may be too quick for ODU.
St. Mary's over Villanova... honestly, the Wildcats should have been voted off the island. Robert Morris out played them and deserved to win that game. My hat is off to the Colonials.
Round 1: 25-7 (better than Obama)
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Round 1 Picks/Analysis
Here we go. I'm picking every game as it comes up. Don't worry about my "office pool" brackets, I've got four of them and each is way different from the other (what? Kansas losing to Lehigh is insane?). It would take way to much to explain the convoluted process I went through.
Okay, let's go each seed match-up at a time. Knock out the easy ones first...
1 vs. 16:
Since a 16 has NEVER beaten a 1, Kentucky over ETSU, Duke over Ark-PB, Syracuse over Vermont, and (I wish I could go against history) Kansas over Lehigh. I don't need to say much else here.
2 vs. 15:
West Virginia over Morgan State, Villanova over Robert Morris (who has a player named Rob Robinson), K-State over North Texas, and Ohio State over UCSB. None of these 15s are good enough to do what Hampton did to Iowa State in '01. None of these 2s are as overrated as Iowa State was that year.
3 vs. 14:
UNM over Montana, Baylor over SHSU, Pitt over Oakland, and Georgetown over Ohio. Nope, still no serious analysis for these four, but the most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico.
4 vs. 13:
Wisconsin over Wofford... easy, Wofford has one scorer and 'Sconsin is the best defensive team in a defensive conference.
Purdue over Siena... stop that Siena Bandwagon before it goes right off a cliff. Just because Purdue doesn't have the best big man in the Big Ten any more doesn't mean their length and defense won't frustrate a mid-major who's been reading too much of their own press.
Murray State over Vanderbilt... here's a bandwagon I can get on. The Racers play a pressing, turn-you-over style and Vandy has not handled pressure defense well (other than when they beat Mizzou).
Maryland over Houston... the Cougs are lucky to beat here and Maryland is truly the class of the ACC.
5 vs. 12:
Cornell over Temple... when an Ivy team makes the tournament three years in a row, you have to respect them. Cornell can win low scoring games (because they have to in the Ivy) so Temple's defense shouldn't phase them too much.
Texas A&M over Utah St.... Aggies versus Aggies? The Aggies are a trendy pick, but I think the Aggies' defense will be enough to snuff out the Aggies' mojo.
Butler over UTEP... I'll take experience over "hot prospect" talent.
Michigan St. over NMSU... the Spartans are not in good shape, but look for them to get by the surprising Aggies (hey, there's that word again).
6 vs. 11:
Marquette over Washington... look at it this way, Marquette has like 8 losses by less than 5 points, so if it's close take the Huskies... but it won't be close.
ODU over Notre Dame... whether or not Harangody is back, I think the Irish used up all their energy getting in the tournament.
Xavier over Minnesota... Gophers are in the same boat as the Irish, only it's a smaller boat.
SDSU over Tennessee... Aztecs are hot, they've played a bunch of tough games and Tennessee is not the same team that beat Kansas.
7 vs. 10:
Missouri over Clemson... I think the motto at Clemson is "Underachieve or Die." On a serious note, Mizzou misses Justin Safford like Jason Alexander misses Seinfeld. Here's hoping Mizzou doesn't miss 3-pointers in the same way.
Richmond over St. Mary's... it took the Gaels three chances to beat Gonzaga and Richmond is possibly the best 7-seed ever.
BYU over Florida... remember, Florida would have been out of my bracket. BYU is probably the best statistical team in the region.
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma St.... look at all that wasted talent on G-Tech, you'd think they'd have challenged Duke in the ACC. The Cowboys rode a sweep of the state of Kansas into the tournament and is slightly over-seeded. Should be very close.
8 vs. 9:
Texas over Wake Forest... as the tournament approached and these two were still considered locks (they combined to go 13-14 since my birthday), I thought they were locks for first round exits. Then the committee matched them up... DAMN! Oh well, maybe the former #1 will pull it out.
Lousiville over Cal... don't be surprised if this is a blow-out... either way.
Florida St. over Gonzaga... I'll take the #1 shooting defense in the country over an underwhelming, over-hyped, no-longer-cinderella west coast team.
Northern Iowa over UNLV... watch out for the Panthers. Seriously, if the Jayhawks are over-confident (and they will be), they might exit early to great mid-major.
NOTE: I've been watching some NIT action the last two nights and... DAMN, these games are just as exciting (if not more). Seriously, St. John's and Memphis had 16 made 3-pointers and 6 ally-oops at halftime!
Okay, let's go each seed match-up at a time. Knock out the easy ones first...
1 vs. 16:
Since a 16 has NEVER beaten a 1, Kentucky over ETSU, Duke over Ark-PB, Syracuse over Vermont, and (I wish I could go against history) Kansas over Lehigh. I don't need to say much else here.
2 vs. 15:
West Virginia over Morgan State, Villanova over Robert Morris (who has a player named Rob Robinson), K-State over North Texas, and Ohio State over UCSB. None of these 15s are good enough to do what Hampton did to Iowa State in '01. None of these 2s are as overrated as Iowa State was that year.
3 vs. 14:
UNM over Montana, Baylor over SHSU, Pitt over Oakland, and Georgetown over Ohio. Nope, still no serious analysis for these four, but the most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico.
4 vs. 13:
Wisconsin over Wofford... easy, Wofford has one scorer and 'Sconsin is the best defensive team in a defensive conference.
Purdue over Siena... stop that Siena Bandwagon before it goes right off a cliff. Just because Purdue doesn't have the best big man in the Big Ten any more doesn't mean their length and defense won't frustrate a mid-major who's been reading too much of their own press.
Murray State over Vanderbilt... here's a bandwagon I can get on. The Racers play a pressing, turn-you-over style and Vandy has not handled pressure defense well (other than when they beat Mizzou).
Maryland over Houston... the Cougs are lucky to beat here and Maryland is truly the class of the ACC.
5 vs. 12:
Cornell over Temple... when an Ivy team makes the tournament three years in a row, you have to respect them. Cornell can win low scoring games (because they have to in the Ivy) so Temple's defense shouldn't phase them too much.
Texas A&M over Utah St.... Aggies versus Aggies? The Aggies are a trendy pick, but I think the Aggies' defense will be enough to snuff out the Aggies' mojo.
Butler over UTEP... I'll take experience over "hot prospect" talent.
Michigan St. over NMSU... the Spartans are not in good shape, but look for them to get by the surprising Aggies (hey, there's that word again).
6 vs. 11:
Marquette over Washington... look at it this way, Marquette has like 8 losses by less than 5 points, so if it's close take the Huskies... but it won't be close.
ODU over Notre Dame... whether or not Harangody is back, I think the Irish used up all their energy getting in the tournament.
Xavier over Minnesota... Gophers are in the same boat as the Irish, only it's a smaller boat.
SDSU over Tennessee... Aztecs are hot, they've played a bunch of tough games and Tennessee is not the same team that beat Kansas.
7 vs. 10:
Missouri over Clemson... I think the motto at Clemson is "Underachieve or Die." On a serious note, Mizzou misses Justin Safford like Jason Alexander misses Seinfeld. Here's hoping Mizzou doesn't miss 3-pointers in the same way.
Richmond over St. Mary's... it took the Gaels three chances to beat Gonzaga and Richmond is possibly the best 7-seed ever.
BYU over Florida... remember, Florida would have been out of my bracket. BYU is probably the best statistical team in the region.
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma St.... look at all that wasted talent on G-Tech, you'd think they'd have challenged Duke in the ACC. The Cowboys rode a sweep of the state of Kansas into the tournament and is slightly over-seeded. Should be very close.
8 vs. 9:
Texas over Wake Forest... as the tournament approached and these two were still considered locks (they combined to go 13-14 since my birthday), I thought they were locks for first round exits. Then the committee matched them up... DAMN! Oh well, maybe the former #1 will pull it out.
Lousiville over Cal... don't be surprised if this is a blow-out... either way.
Florida St. over Gonzaga... I'll take the #1 shooting defense in the country over an underwhelming, over-hyped, no-longer-cinderella west coast team.
Northern Iowa over UNLV... watch out for the Panthers. Seriously, if the Jayhawks are over-confident (and they will be), they might exit early to great mid-major.
NOTE: I've been watching some NIT action the last two nights and... DAMN, these games are just as exciting (if not more). Seriously, St. John's and Memphis had 16 made 3-pointers and 6 ally-oops at halftime!
Monday, March 15, 2010
MY Bracket
So we always have questions about the tournament committees decisions, and they always have silly rules to follow. So what if we threw out all those rules. No pods, no concern for conference, just an S-curve ranking. Here it is:
1: Kansas (1) vs. 16: Lehigh (64)/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (65)
2: Villanova (8) vs. 15: East Tennessee State (57)
3: Pittsburgh (9) vs. 14: Murray State (56)
4: Purdue (16) vs. 13: Cornell (49)
5: Vanderbilt (17) vs. 12: Siena (48)
6: Xavier (24) vs. 11: Minnesota (41)
7: San Diego State (25) vs. 10: Gonzaga (40)
8: Wake Forest (32) vs. 9: Notre Dame (33)
1: Duke (2) vs. 16: Vermont (63)
2: Georgetown (7) vs. 15: Montana (58)
3: Tennessee (10) vs. 14: UC-Santa Barbara (55)
4: Maryland (15) vs. 13: Oakland (50)
5: Ohio State (18) vs. 12: New Mexico State (47)
6: Georgia Tech (23) vs. 11: Utah State (42)
7: Louisville (26) vs. 10: Old Dominion (39)
8: Marquette (31) vs. 9: Brigham Young (34)
1: West Virginia (3) vs. 16: Winthrop (62)
2: Kentucky (6) vs. 15: North Texas (59)
3: Baylor (11) vs. 14: Wofford (54)
4: Wisconsin (14) vs. 13: Ohio (51)
5: New Mexico (19) vs. 12: St. Mary's (46)
6: California (22) vs. 11: Dayton (43)
7: Richmond (27) vs. 10: Florida State (38)
8: Texas (30) vs. 9: Northern Iowa (35)
1: Kansas State (4) vs. 16: Robert Morris (61)
2: Syracuse (5) vs. 15: Morgan State (60)
3: Texas A&M (12) vs. 14: Sam Houston State (53)
4: Temple (13) vs. 13: Houston (52)
5: Michigan State (20) vs. 12: Rhode Island (45)
6: Butler (21) vs. 11: UTEP (44)
7: Oklahoma State (28) vs. 10: Missouri (37)
8: Clemson (29) vs. 9: Washington (36)
Last Four In: Utah State, Dayton, UTEP, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Florida, UNLV, Mississippi State, Kent State
Next Four Out: Wichita State, UAB, Memphis, Virginia Tech
Essentially all the same teams accept I'd swap out Florida and UNLV for Dayton and Rhode Island.
Stay tuned... I'll have a game-by-game break down coming next... oh, and I'll take Winthrop over Arkansas-Pine Bluff tomorrow.
1: Kansas (1) vs. 16: Lehigh (64)/Arkansas Pine-Bluff (65)
2: Villanova (8) vs. 15: East Tennessee State (57)
3: Pittsburgh (9) vs. 14: Murray State (56)
4: Purdue (16) vs. 13: Cornell (49)
5: Vanderbilt (17) vs. 12: Siena (48)
6: Xavier (24) vs. 11: Minnesota (41)
7: San Diego State (25) vs. 10: Gonzaga (40)
8: Wake Forest (32) vs. 9: Notre Dame (33)
1: Duke (2) vs. 16: Vermont (63)
2: Georgetown (7) vs. 15: Montana (58)
3: Tennessee (10) vs. 14: UC-Santa Barbara (55)
4: Maryland (15) vs. 13: Oakland (50)
5: Ohio State (18) vs. 12: New Mexico State (47)
6: Georgia Tech (23) vs. 11: Utah State (42)
7: Louisville (26) vs. 10: Old Dominion (39)
8: Marquette (31) vs. 9: Brigham Young (34)
1: West Virginia (3) vs. 16: Winthrop (62)
2: Kentucky (6) vs. 15: North Texas (59)
3: Baylor (11) vs. 14: Wofford (54)
4: Wisconsin (14) vs. 13: Ohio (51)
5: New Mexico (19) vs. 12: St. Mary's (46)
6: California (22) vs. 11: Dayton (43)
7: Richmond (27) vs. 10: Florida State (38)
8: Texas (30) vs. 9: Northern Iowa (35)
1: Kansas State (4) vs. 16: Robert Morris (61)
2: Syracuse (5) vs. 15: Morgan State (60)
3: Texas A&M (12) vs. 14: Sam Houston State (53)
4: Temple (13) vs. 13: Houston (52)
5: Michigan State (20) vs. 12: Rhode Island (45)
6: Butler (21) vs. 11: UTEP (44)
7: Oklahoma State (28) vs. 10: Missouri (37)
8: Clemson (29) vs. 9: Washington (36)
Last Four In: Utah State, Dayton, UTEP, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Florida, UNLV, Mississippi State, Kent State
Next Four Out: Wichita State, UAB, Memphis, Virginia Tech
Essentially all the same teams accept I'd swap out Florida and UNLV for Dayton and Rhode Island.
Stay tuned... I'll have a game-by-game break down coming next... oh, and I'll take Winthrop over Arkansas-Pine Bluff tomorrow.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Next-to-Last Rankings
I started this Thursday afternoon and got bogged down in thesis work. So this includes the RPI for Thursday and was up-to-date with top seeds at about 2pm Thursday. Remember, the teams in Bold are the top seed in the conference tournament (or highest remaining seed) and the teams in Bold Italics have locked their bid.
1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: West Virginia
4: Syracuse
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburg (Big East)
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Texas A&M
11: Tennessee
12: Baylor
13: Wisconsin
14: Purdue
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac-10)
19: Michigan State
20: Ohio State (Big Ten)
21: Temple (A-10)
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Xavier
24: Louisville
25: Texas
26: Clemson
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Georgia Tech
31: Brigham Young
32: Florida State
33: Northern Iowa (MVC)
34: Missouri
35: San Diego State
36: Dayton
37: Utah State (WAC)
38: Gonzaga
39: Notre Dame
40: Old Dominion (Colonial)
41: Marquette
42: Cincinnati
43: Florida
44: UTEP (C-USA)
45: Seton Hall
46: Memphis
47: Washington
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: St. Mary's (WCC)
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Oakland (Summit)
52: Cornell (Ivy)
53: Wofford (SoCon)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Montana (Big Sky)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: North Texas (Sun Belt)
60: Robert Morris (NEC)
61: Morgan State (MEAC)
62: Winthrop (Big South)
63: Vermont (Am. East)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)
Last Four In: Washington, Memphis, Seton Hall, Florida
First Four Out: UAB, Rhode Island, UNLV, Wichita State
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, William & Mary
1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: West Virginia
4: Syracuse
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburg (Big East)
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Texas A&M
11: Tennessee
12: Baylor
13: Wisconsin
14: Purdue
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac-10)
19: Michigan State
20: Ohio State (Big Ten)
21: Temple (A-10)
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Xavier
24: Louisville
25: Texas
26: Clemson
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Georgia Tech
31: Brigham Young
32: Florida State
33: Northern Iowa (MVC)
34: Missouri
35: San Diego State
36: Dayton
37: Utah State (WAC)
38: Gonzaga
39: Notre Dame
40: Old Dominion (Colonial)
41: Marquette
42: Cincinnati
43: Florida
44: UTEP (C-USA)
45: Seton Hall
46: Memphis
47: Washington
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: St. Mary's (WCC)
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Oakland (Summit)
52: Cornell (Ivy)
53: Wofford (SoCon)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Montana (Big Sky)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: North Texas (Sun Belt)
60: Robert Morris (NEC)
61: Morgan State (MEAC)
62: Winthrop (Big South)
63: Vermont (Am. East)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)
Last Four In: Washington, Memphis, Seton Hall, Florida
First Four Out: UAB, Rhode Island, UNLV, Wichita State
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, William & Mary
Monday, March 8, 2010
Championship Week Rankings Part 1
Because these will change quickly by next Monday, I will do another ranking Thursday. For right now, the teams in Bold are the top seed in the conference tournament (or highest remaining seed) and the teams in Bold Italics have locked their bid.
1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Syracuse (Big East)
4: West Virginia
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Baylor
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Wisconsin
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac 10)
19: Michigan State
20: Louisville
21: Ohio State
22: Temple (A-10)
23: Xavier
24: Texas
25: Clemson
26: Butler (Horizon)
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Florida State
31: Georgia Tech
32: Missouri
33: Brigham Young
34: Northern Iowa (MVC)
35: Gonzaga (WCC)
36: Utah State (WAC)
37: San Diego State
38: Dayton
39: Florida
40: Marquette
41: Notre Dame
42: Rhode Island
43: UTEP (C-USA)
44: Washington
45: Memphis
46: Old Dominion (Colonial)
47: UAB
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: Arizona State
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Oakland (Summit)
53: Weber State (Big Sky)
54: Wofford (SoCon)
55: Sam Houston State (Southland)
56: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
57: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Troy (Sun Belt)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Winthrop (Big South)
62: Stony Brook (Am. East)
63: Lehigh (Patriot)
64: Quinnipiac (NEC)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)
Just Missed It (Needs a big win or someone else's big loss): UNLV, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, St. Mary's.
Some interesting notes:
- The rankings had just one Pac-10 team (California) all season and now there are three (Washington and Arizona State). The weakness of the Pac-10 is still real, they just took awhile to get rolling in the conference season... plus going 1-11 in the Pac-10/Big 12 Hardwood Series really hurts.
- The only real upset in the early tournaments so far was #5 seed ETSU winning the Atlantic Sun... but when the #1, #3, and #4 lose in round one (and the #2 in round two) it's bound to happen. Of all the conferences, the leader of this one switched multiple times. I've primarily had Jacksonville in the rankings, and sometimes Belmont (and Lipscomb was actually the #1 seed), so was this a strong conference or a really weak one?
- St. Mary's is out. They'll stay out if they don't beat Gonzaga in the WCC Championship tonight. That will make them 0-for-7 against the Zags in the last 3 years.
- All the bubble teams are praying for Gonzaga, Utah State, UTEP, Kent State, and Butler (and no ridiculous upsets in other tournaments, either)... all five of those teams may not need to win their tournament to get in.
1: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Syracuse (Big East)
4: West Virginia
5: Kansas State
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Villanova
9: Georgetown
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Baylor
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Wisconsin
15: Maryland
16: New Mexico (MWC)
17: Vanderbilt
18: California (Pac 10)
19: Michigan State
20: Louisville
21: Ohio State
22: Temple (A-10)
23: Xavier
24: Texas
25: Clemson
26: Butler (Horizon)
27: Oklahoma State
28: Wake Forest
29: Richmond
30: Florida State
31: Georgia Tech
32: Missouri
33: Brigham Young
34: Northern Iowa (MVC)
35: Gonzaga (WCC)
36: Utah State (WAC)
37: San Diego State
38: Dayton
39: Florida
40: Marquette
41: Notre Dame
42: Rhode Island
43: UTEP (C-USA)
44: Washington
45: Memphis
46: Old Dominion (Colonial)
47: UAB
48: Kent State (MAC)
49: Arizona State
50: Siena (MAAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Oakland (Summit)
53: Weber State (Big Sky)
54: Wofford (SoCon)
55: Sam Houston State (Southland)
56: East Tennessee State (A-Sun)
57: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Troy (Sun Belt)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Winthrop (Big South)
62: Stony Brook (Am. East)
63: Lehigh (Patriot)
64: Quinnipiac (NEC)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)
Just Missed It (Needs a big win or someone else's big loss): UNLV, Virginia Tech, Wichita State, St. Mary's.
Some interesting notes:
- The rankings had just one Pac-10 team (California) all season and now there are three (Washington and Arizona State). The weakness of the Pac-10 is still real, they just took awhile to get rolling in the conference season... plus going 1-11 in the Pac-10/Big 12 Hardwood Series really hurts.
- The only real upset in the early tournaments so far was #5 seed ETSU winning the Atlantic Sun... but when the #1, #3, and #4 lose in round one (and the #2 in round two) it's bound to happen. Of all the conferences, the leader of this one switched multiple times. I've primarily had Jacksonville in the rankings, and sometimes Belmont (and Lipscomb was actually the #1 seed), so was this a strong conference or a really weak one?
- St. Mary's is out. They'll stay out if they don't beat Gonzaga in the WCC Championship tonight. That will make them 0-for-7 against the Zags in the last 3 years.
- All the bubble teams are praying for Gonzaga, Utah State, UTEP, Kent State, and Butler (and no ridiculous upsets in other tournaments, either)... all five of those teams may not need to win their tournament to get in.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Pre-Championship Week Ranks
Now that it's March, college basketball season can really begin. In five days we'll have our first "locked" bid for the tournament, and when the top 3 teams all lose this weekend, it's going to get pretty crazy.
1: Syracuse (Big East)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Kansas State
4: Kansas (Big 12)
5: West Virginia
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Georgetown
9: Villanova
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Wisconsin
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Vanderbilt
15: New Mexico (MWC)
16: Baylor
17: Maryland
18: Michigan State
19: Xavier (A-10)
20: California (Pac-10)
21: Ohio State
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Texas
24: Oklahoma State
25: Temple
26: Louisville
27: Georgia Tech
28: Wake Forest
29: Connecticut
30: Clemson
31: BYU
32: Missouri
33: Richmond
34: Gonzaga (WCC)
35: Marquette
36: Florida State
37: Dayton
38: Northern Iowa (MVC)
39: Rhode Island
40: Utah State (WAC)
41: Florida
42: San Diego State
43: Old Dominion (Colonial)
44: UNLV
45: Notre Dame
46: Illinois
47: Siena (MAAC)
48: UAB
49: UTEP (C-USA)
50: Kent State (MAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Weber State (Big Sky)
53: Oakland (Summit)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Wofford (Southern)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: Troy (Sun Belt)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Belmont (A-Sun)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Stony Brook (Amer. East)
62: Robert Morris (NEC)
63: Coastal Carolina (Big South)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)
Just Missed It: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, St. Mary's, Wichita State.
So, to focus on the Big 12 (which should be locked on 7 teams in with no bubble teams) we have to look at what the "bottom 5" can do to screw things up. Oklahoma and Texas Tech are looking at matching up in the 8-9 game of the Big12 tourney, so one of them won't be dangerous. But Tech is like Baylor last year, an upset of the 1-seed and a run to the title game might be enough.
As for Mizzou, ESPN has the Tigers as a 7-seed, but I've got them as an 8. The loss to K-State probably revealed what's missing from last year. If you've got the guards to run with them and avoid back-court turnovers, and you've got the big men to clog the inside, and they can't make threes, you can beat them. Last year, Carroll and Lyons were able to help pull out the junk wins because they could score inside... Ramsey and Moore don't look to score unless it's off rebounds. There is the difference.
1: Syracuse (Big East)
2: Duke (ACC)
3: Kansas State
4: Kansas (Big 12)
5: West Virginia
6: Kentucky (SEC)
7: Pittsburgh
8: Georgetown
9: Villanova
10: Tennessee
11: Texas A&M
12: Wisconsin
13: Purdue (Big 10)
14: Vanderbilt
15: New Mexico (MWC)
16: Baylor
17: Maryland
18: Michigan State
19: Xavier (A-10)
20: California (Pac-10)
21: Ohio State
22: Butler (Horizon)
23: Texas
24: Oklahoma State
25: Temple
26: Louisville
27: Georgia Tech
28: Wake Forest
29: Connecticut
30: Clemson
31: BYU
32: Missouri
33: Richmond
34: Gonzaga (WCC)
35: Marquette
36: Florida State
37: Dayton
38: Northern Iowa (MVC)
39: Rhode Island
40: Utah State (WAC)
41: Florida
42: San Diego State
43: Old Dominion (Colonial)
44: UNLV
45: Notre Dame
46: Illinois
47: Siena (MAAC)
48: UAB
49: UTEP (C-USA)
50: Kent State (MAC)
51: Cornell (Ivy)
52: Weber State (Big Sky)
53: Oakland (Summit)
54: Sam Houston State (Southland)
55: Wofford (Southern)
56: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
57: Troy (Sun Belt)
58: Murray State (OVC)
59: Belmont (A-Sun)
60: Morgan State (MEAC)
61: Stony Brook (Amer. East)
62: Robert Morris (NEC)
63: Coastal Carolina (Big South)
64: Lehigh (Patriot)
65: Jackson State (SWAC)
Just Missed It: Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, St. Mary's, Wichita State.
So, to focus on the Big 12 (which should be locked on 7 teams in with no bubble teams) we have to look at what the "bottom 5" can do to screw things up. Oklahoma and Texas Tech are looking at matching up in the 8-9 game of the Big12 tourney, so one of them won't be dangerous. But Tech is like Baylor last year, an upset of the 1-seed and a run to the title game might be enough.
As for Mizzou, ESPN has the Tigers as a 7-seed, but I've got them as an 8. The loss to K-State probably revealed what's missing from last year. If you've got the guards to run with them and avoid back-court turnovers, and you've got the big men to clog the inside, and they can't make threes, you can beat them. Last year, Carroll and Lyons were able to help pull out the junk wins because they could score inside... Ramsey and Moore don't look to score unless it's off rebounds. There is the difference.
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