Saturday, December 20, 2008

Bowl Game Predictions with Katie

As the bowl season gets started, college football's last hurrah will echo for almost 3 weeks. Here are my picks, a little delayed by a hangover, with my wonderful fiance's predictions along side. Over the last three football seasons her knowledge and love of the game has grown by leaps and bounds. Her predictions will be in italics.

Eagle Bank Bowl - Navy over Wake Forest... a team that struggles in the ACC will have trouble with the triple option, plus Navy seniors are playing their last game before they go to serve our country.
New Mexico Bowl - Fresno St. over Colorado St.... Katie's going for the Rams for her maid of honor Erin, I like the Bulldogs toughness.
magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl - South Florida over Memphis... essentially a home game for a disappointing Bulls team.
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl - BYU over Arizona... BYU offense is pretty damn good. It says something about TCU and Utah that BYU finished in third in the Mountain West.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Troy over Southern Miss... a little karma factor going against SoMiss plus you never go against the champions of the Sun Belt.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsetta Bowl - TCU over Boise St.... Katie likes the Broncos because their like the Gonzaga of college football, I love TCU's defense.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii over Notre Dame... how exactly does Notre Dame deserve a bowl game, let alone a holiday in Hawaii?
Motor City Bowl - Central Michigan over Florida Atlantic... another basic home game, plus the Chippewas have much more talent than the Owls.
Meinke Car Care Bowl - North Carolina over West Virginia... another home game, and I wasn't impressed by West Virginia's offense as much.
Champs Sports Bowl - Florida St. over Wisconsin... tough to tell if a disappointing Big Ten team was worse than a middle-of-the-road ACC team.
Emerald Bowl - California over Miami... a quick drive across the bay to attempt to prove that the Pac10 is pretty good.
Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech over Northern Illinois... what's going on with all these de facto home games? Is it a conspiracy?
PapaJohns.com Bowl - Rutgers over NC St.... what's up with this bowl? Could Papa John's itself not afford to sponsor the bowl? Rutgers has risen from the dead by the way.
Valero Alamo Bowl - Missouri over Northwestern... battle of the journalists! I'm tired of people saying the Northwestern passing offense is going to have a field against the Tiger's pass defense. Anyone think the defense has given up high numbers because they played in the pass happy Big12?? Tigers big!
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Nevada over Maryland... Nevada almost upset Boise St. on the same field and the ACC team has never done well in this game.
Texas Bowl - Rice over Western Michigan... another de facto home game, and I like the Rice offense a bit more than Western Michigan's.
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Oklahoma St. over Oregon... watch your eyes if you tune in for this game, the mixture of Oregon's uniforms and OSU's orange is scary, plus I'm not picking against the Big12, except once.
Bell Helicopters Armed Forced Bowl - Houston over Air Force... Houston puts up a lot of points and Air Force doesn't through the ball, win for the Cougars.
Brut Sun Bowl - Oregon St. over Pittsburgh... they did beat USC, and Pitt played in the Big East.
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Boston College over Vanderbilt... even though its a de facto home game and Vandy's first bowl appearance in a while, BC is pretty darn good defensively.
Insight Bowl - Kansas over Minnesota... not picking against the Big12 yet, Katie refuses to pick the Jayhawks.
Chick-fil-A Bowl - Georgia Tech over LSU... a defense that gave up 50+ twice facing the power triple option Tech offense, go with the Jackets.
Outback Bowl - Iowa over South Carolina... chance for an SEC defense to prove it can stop the best running back from the Big10, Katie and I lean towards the Hawkeyes.
Captial One Bowl - Georgia over Michigan St.... taking the dynamic offense from the SEC versus the one-dimensional one from the Big10.
Konica Minolta Gator Bowl - Nebraska over Clemson... Katie's going for the Tigers because of another bridesmaid, I like the Big12.
Rose Bowl present by Citi - USC over Penn St.... all USC needs to do is score 20 points, not sure they can do that.
FedEx Orange Bowl - Cincinnati over Virginia Tech... I just get the feeling that these Bearcats are pretty tough to beat.
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Texas Tech over Mississippi... sure they beat Florida, but Tech beat Texas, and Tech is getting the same treatment Mizzou got last year, top 10 in BCS but not going.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Kentucky over East Carolina... the early season sleepers fell off, but Katie still likes them, they did beat Tulsa.
Allstate Sugar Bowl - Alabama over Utah... I really want to pick Utah (since I have them ranked #1) but the Tide is probably pretty mad.
International Bowl - Buffalo over Connecticut... I like UConn's running game, but the Bulls played Mizzou hard and upset Ball St.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Texas over Ohio St.... talk about a pissed off team, the Buckeyes have no idea what about to hit them (especially since they don't belong over Boise St.).
GMAC Bowl - Tulsa over Ball St.... no that they've lost, I can pick against them all day long.
FedEx National Championship - Florida over Oklahoma... eventually Oklahoma's offense (minus DeMarco Murray) is going to run into a defense that can play football... I introduce Florida's defense, plus their power running offense.

Stay tuned for much more blogging, including the basketball predictions and college coaching moves.

Friday, December 19, 2008

NFL Week 16 Picks

Hey look, I've got time to put up some serious picks. Simple answer, I'm done with my first semester of graduate scool. So expect blogs to come a bit more frequent. I'll have bowl game predictions up tomorrow, seriously delayed college basketball and NBA predictions, and other random crap over the holidays. Here we go...

- Colts over Jaguars... thank goodness for Peyton Manning, but seriously, these guys were dead in the water at 3-4 because it very easily could have been 1-6 at that point. I wouldn't want to face a team in the playoffs riding a 10-game win streak (see 2007 Giants).
- Ravens over Cowboys... I still haven't seen conclusive video evidence that Santonio Holmes scored last week, expect the Ravens to take out their frustrations on Dallas.
- Browns over Bengals... whoa, barn-burner alert.
- 49ers over Rams... the Niners really have separated themselves from the crap at the bottom of the NFC West, but there still not any good (see Chargers in the AFC West).
- Saints over Lions... if any team can end the Lions' streak its the Saints on the road, thank goodness this is an indoor game.
- Steelers over Titans... worked this one over in my head a few times this week, then I remembered how the Titans screwed me last week. They can talk all they want about how prepared they'll be for the playoffs because they had adversity during the season. Bull! You don't lose when you have a chance to solidify your playoff position 2 weeks early, you just don't.
- Dolphins over Chiefs... I received a comment last week about how I should have given the Chiefs more of a chance because they were playing on warm-weather team at home in December. Well, if you saw the game you'll notice half the fans left by the end of the third quarter when the team was still up, thus no typical Arrowhead noise while the Chargers mounted the comeback. So I'm not going against the warm-weather team in KC in December, plus I vowed to not pick the Chiefs ever again after their loss to Oakland at home.
- Patriots over Cardinals... I will take the cold-weather home team in this game, plus the Cardinals checked out 2 weeks ago when they punched their playoff ticket.
- Buccaneers over Chargers... totally unimpressed by the Chargers this year. You had to mount a furious comeback to beat the Chiefs?? What's wrong with you??
- Texans over Raiders... Quite impressed by the Texans, that early Colts game goes the other way and their in the playoffs.
- Broncos over Bills... too bad the Bills have no coaching, they'd be half-way decent with a monkey calling the plays.
- Jets over Seahawks... gee, you think Brett Favre may be considering retirement? Wouldn't be surprised if we have another off-season similar to last year. By the way, in a just world the Dolphins will take the division and the Jets are on the outside looking in. Not because of Favre himself, but because the way they gave Chad Pennington the shaft. That and this is the same team that beat the Titans and lost to the Raiders. Will the real Jets please stand up? For that matter, will the real Titans please stand up??
- Vikings over Falcons... NFC South on the road, only reason I'm picking against the Falcons.
- Eagles over Redskins... speaking of being half-way decent if a monkey was their coach, how 'bout them 'Skins?!?!
- Giants over Panthers... NFC Championship preview. Mark that down.
- Bears over Packers... I bet when this game gets slow in the 4th quarter, ESPN will show a montage of Brett Favre Monday Night Football moments. Mark that down.



Last week: 12-4
Season: 148-75-1

Saturday, December 13, 2008

NFL Week 15 Picks

It's been a couple of weeks since I manage to actually have time to put these up in any way more than a description because I sort of have the time to do it. (Not really, I'm in a review session that is hard to contribute to when you aren't really prepared.)

- Bears over Saints... I really did pick this. Just think about it: Chicago, at night, in December. Does that sound like the environment a dome team can win in?? Remember the NFC Championship a few years ago? Was the Saints offense any more effective than the Bears offense then?
- Falcons over Buccaneers... I want to like this Tampa team, but if no NFC South team can win on the road, how are any of them going to stand out. First road to team to pull the upset gets the division by default.
- Redskins over Bengals... looking forward to that Bengals/Chiefs riveting season finale.
- Colts over Lions... if the Lions aren't tanking for the #1 pick, I don't know what tanking is.
- Chargers over Chiefs... REALLY looking forward to that Bengals/Chiefs finale.
- Seahawks over Rams... why wait for the excitement of that Bengals/Chiefs game when we've got the battle for the #3 pick right here and now?
- Dolphins over the 49ers... here's hoping the Wildcat formation can pull the wool over Mike Singletary's eyes... or just pull down his pants.
- Jets over Bills... since scoring 50+ points on the Chiefs, the Bills have 6 points in 2 games. You know things are going badly when Bills fans start wishing for Scott Norwood.
- Titans over Texans... for those who think the Titans are resting for the playoffs I have this: Win this week coupled with Steelers loss and the Titans lock up home field the week before the Steelers come to town when they can rest players and make game plans for a possible AFC Championship.
- Packers over Jaguars... has there been any bigger disappointments than these two??
- Vikings over Cardinals... I'm planning on the Cardinals preparing for the playoffs... by taking a week off. Sure they won't get a bye week, but I just can't trust a team that celebrates winning the NFC West with a chance to finish 8-8.
- Panthers over Broncos... NFC South at home versus a team that doesn't have a running back and lost to the Chiefs.
- Steelers over Ravens... Here's the chance for Pittsburgh to prove that defense wins championships by beating the most defensive defense.
- Patriots over Raiders... what do the Raiders have to go on at this point in the year??
- Giants over Cowboys... don't look now, T.O. is at it again. Simple math T.O. + press = loss.
- Eagles over Browns... you can always tell who the networks think the dark horse for the playoffs is every year. That team that plays a ton of national TV games after a breakthrough year. Usually they end up with a losing record and ratings are down... thanks, Browns.

Last Week: 11-5
Season 136-71-1

My uncle usually runs his and my picks against the picks of the KC Star sports staff. At this point he's in first and I'm in second. Those jerks at the Star gave themselves a win for the Eagles/Bengals tie. Go figure.

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Prebowl Rankings and Seriously Delayed NFL Week 14 Picks

Things got a little busy this weekend. Mostly because Katie and I received a surprise invitation to the Big12 Championship and since it was VIP treatment, I went along, even thought I knew the 62-21 thumping was inevitable.

Here are the picks I missed putting up for the NFL:
Chargers, Bears, Vikings, Packers, Titans, Colts, Falcons, Giants, Broncos, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Cardinals, Steelers, Ravens, Buccaneers.
Week 13: 9-7
Season: 125-66-1

Obviously, if you paid attention this week, you'd know how I did, otherwise, wait for Friday's blog.

College Rankings:
1. Utah (12-0)
2. Boise State (12-0)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Florida (12-1)
5. Alabama (12-1)
6. Ball State (12-1)
7. Texas (11-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Southern Cal (11-1)
10. Texas Tech (11-1)
11. Cincinnati (11-2)
12. Ohio State (10-2)
13. Texas Christian (10-2)
14. Brigham Young (10-2)
15. Pittsburgh (9-3)
16. Georgia Tech (9-3)
17. Michigan State (9-3)
18. Georgia (9-3)
19. Oregon (9-3)
20. Oklahoma State (9-3)
21. Northwestern (9-3)
22. Virginia Tech (9-4)
23. Boston College (9-4)
24. Missouri (9-4)
25. East Carolina (9-4)
26. Florida State (8-4)
27. Oregon State (8-4)
28. Iowa (8-4)
29. Mississippi (8-4)
30. Troy (8-4)
31. Buffalo (8-4)
(Note: Last two get ranked because all conference champs deserve to be ranked, and they're records would have them on the Honorable Mention anyway.)
Honorable Mention: Tulsa (10-3), Rice (9-3), Western Michigan (9-3), Central Michigan (8-4), Nebraska (8-4), North Carolina (8-4), Air Force (8-4), Navy (8-4), West Virginia (8-4).

Let's make note of who got screwed. First, Texas got royally screwed by bot getting to play in the Big12 Championship. Second, Boise State is only 1 spot lower then they were in '06 and yet they are not getting a BCS invite. TCU is also getting a bad rap, they are in the top 12, the goal the BCS sets for non-BCS schools, and they're not in. Especially considering their 2 loses are to Oklahoma and Utah.
Bowl previews will be up late next week.

Monday, December 1, 2008

College Week 15 Rankings and Picks

A clear cut Top 29 in the polls this week, also by stopping at 29 I didn't have to worry about including either Nebraska or Kansas. Weird coincidence, there are 2 ties in the polls, #18 and #28.

1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Utah (12-0)
3. Boise State (12-0)
4. Ball State (12-0)
5. Florida (11-1)
6. Texas (11-1)
7. Oklahoma (11-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Texas Tech (11-1)
10. Southern Cal (10-1)
11. Ohio State (10-2)
12. Cincinnati (10-2)
13. Texas Christian (10-2)
14. Brigham Young (10-2)
15. Tulsa (10-2)
16. Georgia Tech (9-3)
17. Boston College (9-3)
18. Michigan State (9-3)
18. Georgia (9-3)
20. Oklahoma State (9-3)
21. Missouri (9-3)
22. Oregon (9-3)
23. Northwestern (9-3)
24. Pittsburgh (8-3)
25. Florida State (8-4)
26. Virginia Tech (8-4)
27. Oregon State (8-4)
28. Iowa (8-4)
28. Mississippi (8-4)

Honorable Mention: Western Michigan (9-3), Rice (9-3), North Carolina (8-4), Nebraska (8-4), East Carolina (8-4), Air Force (8-4), Central Michigan (8-4).

This Week's Picks:
- #17 Boston College over #26 Virginia Tech... ACC title game rematch goes to BC and it's strong defense.
- #5 Florida over #1 Alabama... throwing some wood on the anti-BCS fire. Let's see how good 'Bama's defense is against a balanced and dynamic offense.
- #7 Oklahoma over #21 Missouri... still waiting for Oklahoma to play like the Oklahoma of the last two Fiesta Bowls.
Also calling the MAC Championship for #4 Ball State, the C-USA Championship for #15 Tulsa, and Navy over Army.

On the BCS debate... Texas needs to relax. Sure, they are right, they should be in the title game not Oklahoma, but look at it this way... all they need is an upset. I'd be willing to wager that the winner of the SEC title game will be in the BCS Championship; so if Oklahoma were to lose to Mizzou, guess who slides into that other spot? That's right, the idle third-ranked team. Of course, another dominant performance by USC could move them ahead of Texas, but that would be a surprise. My advice to Texas: send all the gameplans and tapes you've got to the Mizzou coaching staff. Do everything short of playing the game for them.

Belated NFL Week 13 Picks

You'll just have to believe me (because it was hard to blog over the Thanksgiving Holiday), but I picked these teams:

Titans, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bills, Packers, Buccaneers, Giants, Colts, Ravens, Dolphins, Chargers, Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Vikings, and Jaguars.

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 116-59-1

Note from a reader:
connq (Chicago): "This just in .... The new head coach of Kansas State - Bill Snyder. So I want to know, does this mean a return to the old, good Kansas State. Or is KSU so "bad" and game so "different" that no amount of recruiting JUCO transfers will right the ship?"

Technically, the old Kansas State sucks, look at their record. But I know he meant the K-State of 1995-2005. Personally, I always liked what Bill Snyder had done there, and I can't really say it's too late for him to right the ship. One thing I'm sure of, it'll help recruiting... which will probably mean less Texas recruits to spread around... which means more difficult recruiting for everyone else... which means a more competitive North division (good for image, bad for Mizzou). I never liked that Snyder built his dynasty on JUCO players, they always had a poor academic record. I guess you could say I don't like the hire, mostly because it may make Mizzou's job harder every year.