With apologies to the NFL Draft (possible blog after it's all said and done), I'd like to run through my thoughts and prediction for the NBA Playoffs, also known as "Can Anyone Stop the Heat?"
I know the first round has already started and predicting the results at this point isn't exactly going out on a limb, but hear me out. It's also not a stretch to just pick the Heat to win it all, but what I'm presenting is more of a blueprint for how they might get beat.
After the first games of each series, when all the home teams won and certain "sure things" were "no shows" (Steph Curry, Chicago's defense, James Harden, Memphis's defense), a lot of people were thinking there wouldn't be any Game 7s (maybe no Game 6s either). Well, now it seems as if the series that were going to be tight are close and nothing looks out of place (except for the lack of Kobe Bryant). Here is my breakdown of each series... I promise to have Round 2 ready before it starts.
Miami over Milwaukee in 4
Anything less that a sweep would be a disappointment. The Bucks are the only playoff team under .500 (happens every year with the 8 seed in the East) and the can't match up with Miami. It's a "pick your poison" for them. They can keep their defensive wings out on the floor to ATTEMPT to contain LeBron and Wade, or they can go small and ATTEMPT to out-score the Heat. I could see Ellis, Jennings and Reddick heating up in Game 4 to steal one, but do you think LeBron will let that happen?
Knicks over Celtics in 5
Before the series started my gut would have said Celtics in 7, but they have not looked strong on offense yet. They are seriously missing Rondo (and Ray Allen for that matter). They may be strong on defense without him, but without him they rely too heavily on Pierce and Green, and those two are going to be working hard on the other end against Carmelo. Between how NY plays defense and how Carmelo and Smith can break your back on the other end, the Celtics are sunk. Now that it's 2-0 for the Knicks, expect the Celtics to get Game 3 in the Garden and the Knicks to close it out in MSG.
Pacers over Hawks in 5
When the best defensive team in the league finds an offensive rhythm, and they are facing a team that dumped it's biggest offensive threat to Brooklyn, I'm tempted to call for a sweep. I can't do that, it's too much of a jinx. Plus, it will be good for the Pacers to lose Game 4 in Atlanta so they can get a bad loss out of their system and win Game 1 in MSG (because if they sweep the Hawks, expect the Knicks to destroy them in Game 1... the Pacers will be too overconfident... think Kentucky after losing the meaningless SEC Championship in 2012).
Bulls over Nets in 7
The way Chicago played last night, you might think they can win in 5, but I think Brooklyn wins Games 5 & 6 on sheer offensive willpower. Defense wins you championships, but offense makes it easier on the defense. I don't expect the Bulls to have another offensively strong game like last night until Game 7. Maybe they win Game 4 and Noah sits Game 5, something strange will happen, I'm sure. They can't play THAT well on both ends for 2 more games, but they'll wear down the weak Nets eventually.
Thunder over Rockets in 4
There is a reason OKC let Harden go so easily... some day we'll know. It's not all about money. I think it's because they'd rather have Sefalosha's defense and they can use unselfish role players (Martin and Fisher) to pick up the offensive slack. Think about it: the Thunder can defend you at 3 positions better than most teams (outside of the Pacers) with Perkins, Ibaka and Sefalosha. Then they can find a way to go small and Durant is still an above-average defender and you'll probably decided to go small so that you aren't using a 4 to defend him. Sure, Harden allows you to sit Westbrook and Durant for short periods together (if absolutely necessary), but he doesn't defend elite guards well at all. I'd rather have Sefalosha to guard Kobe (if he were healthy), Paul, Ginobili/Leonard, and Curry/Thompson. Houston can't keep up with OKC.
Spurs over Lakers in 4
How strange is this? It was widely discussed that the Spurs were "tanking" so they could avoid a 1 v. 8 series with the Lakers... then the Lakers caught fire, the Rockets faded, and here we are: a Spurs/Lakers 2 v. 7 series. The Spurs TOTALLY LUCKED OUT when Kobe got hurt. They haven't played very well and are still up 2-0. If Gasol or Howard wants to be considered an elite franchise player, they'll lead the Lakers to a win or two and salvage respectability. If they really want to stick it to Kobe "I'll Throw Anyone Under the Bus if it Suits Me" Bryant, they'd win the series... but that would take a tremendous effort (and the Spurs won't let that happen).
Nuggets over Warriors in 7
You like offensive? Stay glued to this series. Have a hard time with bright blue and yellow colors? Avoid this series (also, avoid it if you love defense). The winner of this series gets to attempt to prove youth/athleticism can beat experience/intelligence against the Spurs. I love the odds for either team. I'm taking the Nuggets here unless they can't steal one in Oakland. If the Warriors go up 3-1? They'll win in 6. Unfortunately, David Lee is too vital for Golden State inside. Missing his presence puts a ton of pressure on the Warriors interior (not that he'a great defender or Denver has a strong inside offense, just his presence). This will wear down the Warrior bench and Curry has another bad game in him, watch.
Grizzlies over Clippers in 7
Finally, Memphis went inside and used their strength against LA's weakness. Unless Paul figures out how to score 25 every game and Griffin figures out how to keep Z-Bo from getting 20 rebounds and 10 put-backs every game, I don't see them pulling it out. Plus, the Clippers lack coaching... they can't win if the crunch-time stratedgy is "give the ball to Chris every time," especially if Tony Allen is guarding him.
Current Picks for the Rest of the Playoffs:
Heat over Bulls in 5
Pacers over Knicks in 7
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Spurs over Nuggets in 6
Heat over Pacers in 6
Thunder over Spurs in 6
Heat over Thunder in 5
How the remaining teams can keep that from happening:
In all seriousness, the Heat are beatable. The Bulls could bully them around until a fight breaks out and LeBron and Wade both get 4 game suspensions. The Knicks can get 30 from Carmelo for 6 straight games and play Chandler and Martin at the same time to keep LeBron and Wade from getting easy inside baskets, forcing outside shots and maybe they miss a lot of them (plus JR Smith has to go ape-shit). The Pacers could get George AND Hibbert to average triple-doubles and also hope the Heat go cold from the outside. Memphis has the defense to beat the Heat in 7, they'd have to get there first AND have Z-Bo turn in a Hall-of-Fame series (bullying Bosh into submission). Chris Paul could go bananas in pursuit of his first title, but he'd need the rest of the Clippers to turn in defensive performances they've never produced before. The Spurs could win by frustrating Miami with near-perfect, intelligent offense and frustrating "old-man" defense. Finally, the Thunder have the offensive horses to keep pace and the defensive talent/strength to do the job... but everything has to go perfectly.
That's the problem.
- LeBron is the best player. The other team would need to have AT LEAST one guy play better than LeBron, not just in scoring, but ACROSS THE BOARD (Durant and Carmelo really the only capable ones).
- The other team's rotation defense would HAVE to be perfect AND the all the Heat's spot-up shooters would have to go ice cold (and they have Ray Allen, the best 3-point shooter EVER).
- The other team needs a post game that could take over games and slow the pace (Memphis and San Antonio are capable) AND that team would need the confidence to stick with a big line-up when the Heat go with LeBron at the 4 (which would be hard for Memphis/SA because that means Z-Bo/Duncan has to guard LeBron or someone smaller).
- The other team's offense would have to be so efficient that it limited the Heat to so few transition opportunities that they couldn't go on any devastating runs (OKC could, but the like to play fast too... SA, NY and Indiana would be the most successful).
- The other team would have to win the rebounding edge (specifically on offense) by such a wide margin that even the casual fan would notice (OKC, SA, NY, Indiana can Chicago could if they avoided going small... because a LeBron/Anderson tandem out-rebounds any other "small" frontcourt).
FINALLY, all this would have to happen for 4 games out of 7, including at least once IN MIAMI... I could see OKC, SA or NY doing that for 6 of 10 or 7 of 13... but to have the horses in the barn and the stratedy on the court all at the same time to make up for whatever insane damage LeBron is doing is HIGHLY unlikely.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
It Was in the Cards
You may have caught my comment about this year being the most entertaining Final Four in recent memory. I may be wrong about that because I can't say I've watched every minute of the last several Final Fours... especially last year because kansas was in it.
But here's how I know I'm a good sports fan:
I will always cheer for the following teams no matter what the situation (barring a gun to my head): Chiefs for NFL, Royals for MLB, Pacers for NBA (or the Kings if they ever get better), Missouri for college sports, and USA for international sports.
I will always cheer against the following teams no matter what the situation: Raiders, Yankees, Lakers, kansas, and France.
But if I'm watching a game that does not involve one of those teams, I tend to have a heirarchy of "fandom" and always find myself cheering for one team over another. The pro teams are pretty cut-and-dry, as you can see:
NFL (bottom up)
Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Chargers, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Texans, Vikings, Lions, Saints, Jaguars, Colts, Bengals, Redskins, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Bills, Panthers, Chiefs.
MLB
Yankees, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mariners, Angles, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Royals.
NBA
Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Bobcats, Wizards, Cavaliers, Bucks, Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks, Blazers, Timberwolves, Magic, Pistons, Raptors, Sixers, Suns, Clippers, Hawks, Nuggets, Bulls, Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Heat, Kings, Pacers.
When it comes to college sports (and international sports) it's much harders to define a heirarchy because there are so many teams.
- I will cheer for the "feel good story" or severe underdog in most cases (if they cancel out, who knows)
- I will never cheer for Illinios, Alabama, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Texas unless they are playing kansas.
- I will never cheer for Duke, Connecticut, Kentucky or UCLA in basketball (unless they are playing kansas).
- I tend to cheer against SEC conference teams unless it benefits me or Missouri.
- If I know someone who is an alum or fan, I will cheer for that team.
This brings us to this year's NCAA tournament. When your team is out on the first day, there is little left to get excited about. Other than the Gonzaga/Wichita State second half, the Indiana/Temple last 10 minutes, and the Michigan/kansas overtime, I didn't watch any games after Mizzou lost, until the Elite 8.
The Sweet 16 carried a very wide spectrum of entertainment value for me... best case Louisville, La Salle, Miami, and Florida Gulf Coast would have been a fun idea (if quality games), and worst case Duke, Ohio State, Syracuse, kansas would have meant keeping the TV off. I got a darn good compromise. Underdog Wichita State, feel-good Louisville, Fab Five (huge fan at the time) revival Michigan, and eh, fine, Syracuse. It's so much fun to watch a basketball game (especially close ones) when you don't care who wins... turns out I cared.
Hey, I'm happy for Louisville. But I found myself cheering for the Shockers and Wolverines, maybe because Pitino had been there before, maybe because I love the upset. All the same, it was a damn good tournament. As long as there are more guys like Kevin Ware and Luke Hancock and less like Marshall Henderson, I'll be happy.
But here's how I know I'm a good sports fan:
I will always cheer for the following teams no matter what the situation (barring a gun to my head): Chiefs for NFL, Royals for MLB, Pacers for NBA (or the Kings if they ever get better), Missouri for college sports, and USA for international sports.
I will always cheer against the following teams no matter what the situation: Raiders, Yankees, Lakers, kansas, and France.
But if I'm watching a game that does not involve one of those teams, I tend to have a heirarchy of "fandom" and always find myself cheering for one team over another. The pro teams are pretty cut-and-dry, as you can see:
NFL (bottom up)
Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Chargers, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Rams, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Texans, Vikings, Lions, Saints, Jaguars, Colts, Bengals, Redskins, Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Bills, Panthers, Chiefs.
MLB
Yankees, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Braves, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mariners, Angles, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Athletics, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rockies, Pirates, Marlins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Royals.
NBA
Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Spurs, Grizzlies, Rockets, Bobcats, Wizards, Cavaliers, Bucks, Jazz, Hornets, Mavericks, Blazers, Timberwolves, Magic, Pistons, Raptors, Sixers, Suns, Clippers, Hawks, Nuggets, Bulls, Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, Heat, Kings, Pacers.
When it comes to college sports (and international sports) it's much harders to define a heirarchy because there are so many teams.
- I will cheer for the "feel good story" or severe underdog in most cases (if they cancel out, who knows)
- I will never cheer for Illinios, Alabama, Iowa State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Nebraska, or Texas unless they are playing kansas.
- I will never cheer for Duke, Connecticut, Kentucky or UCLA in basketball (unless they are playing kansas).
- I tend to cheer against SEC conference teams unless it benefits me or Missouri.
- If I know someone who is an alum or fan, I will cheer for that team.
This brings us to this year's NCAA tournament. When your team is out on the first day, there is little left to get excited about. Other than the Gonzaga/Wichita State second half, the Indiana/Temple last 10 minutes, and the Michigan/kansas overtime, I didn't watch any games after Mizzou lost, until the Elite 8.
The Sweet 16 carried a very wide spectrum of entertainment value for me... best case Louisville, La Salle, Miami, and Florida Gulf Coast would have been a fun idea (if quality games), and worst case Duke, Ohio State, Syracuse, kansas would have meant keeping the TV off. I got a darn good compromise. Underdog Wichita State, feel-good Louisville, Fab Five (huge fan at the time) revival Michigan, and eh, fine, Syracuse. It's so much fun to watch a basketball game (especially close ones) when you don't care who wins... turns out I cared.
Hey, I'm happy for Louisville. But I found myself cheering for the Shockers and Wolverines, maybe because Pitino had been there before, maybe because I love the upset. All the same, it was a damn good tournament. As long as there are more guys like Kevin Ware and Luke Hancock and less like Marshall Henderson, I'll be happy.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Guts Versus Brains: The Internal Struggle
As someone who struggles with his weight, I can tell you that the only time my brain and my guts are on the same page is when I see free food... and when picking against the Royals.
That being said, this year I chose to have one bracket with my gut-decision picks ("eye test") and one with a statistical comparision/analysis. Here are my picks for the ENTIRE bracket going region by region:
Midwest Guts:
Liberty over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over Liberty, Colorado State over Missouri, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Middle Tennesse over Memphis, Michigan State over Valparaiso, Cincinnati over Creighton, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over St. Louis, Michigan State over Middle Tennessee, Duke over Cincinnati
Louisville over Oklahoma State, Michigan State over Duke
Louisville over Duke
Midwest Brains:
North Carolina A&T over Liberty, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over North Carolina A&T, Missouri over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Memphis over Middle Tennessee, Valparaiso over Michigan State, Creighton over Cincinnati, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Missouri, St. Louis over Oklahoma State, Memphis over Valparaiso, Duke over Creighton
Louisville over St. Louis, Memphis over Duke
Memphis over Louisville
West Guts:
La Salle over Boise State
Gonzaga over Southern, Wichita State over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over La Salle, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Wichita State, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
West Brains:
Boise State over La Salle
Gonzaga over Southern, Pittsburgh over Wichita State, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over Boise State, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Pittsburgh, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
South Guts:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, VCU over Akron, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State over Oklahoma, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, VCU over Michigan, Florida over Michigan, Georgetown over San Diego State
VCU over Kansas, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over VCU
South Brains:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, Akron over VCU, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, Michigan over Akron, Florida over Minnesota, Georgetown over San Diego State
Kansas over Michigan, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over Kansas
East Guts:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, NC State over Temple, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Butler over Bucknell, Davidson over Marquette, Colorado over Illinois, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over NC State, UNLV over Montana, Butler over Davidson, Miami (FL) over Colorado
Indiana over UNLV, Miami (FL) over Butler
Indiana over Miami (FL)
East Brains:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, Temple over NC State, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Bucknell over Butler, Marquette over Davidson, Illinois over Colorado, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over Temple, Montana over UNLV, Bucknell over Marquette, Miami (FL) over Illinois
Indiana over Montana, Bucknell over Miami (FL)
Indiana over Bucknell
Final Four Guts:
Louisville over Gonzaga, Indiana over Florida
Indiana over Louisville
Final Four Brains:
Gonzaga over Memphis, Indiana over Florida
Gonzaga over Indiana
That being said, this year I chose to have one bracket with my gut-decision picks ("eye test") and one with a statistical comparision/analysis. Here are my picks for the ENTIRE bracket going region by region:
Midwest Guts:
Liberty over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over Liberty, Colorado State over Missouri, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Middle Tennesse over Memphis, Michigan State over Valparaiso, Cincinnati over Creighton, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over St. Louis, Michigan State over Middle Tennessee, Duke over Cincinnati
Louisville over Oklahoma State, Michigan State over Duke
Louisville over Duke
Midwest Brains:
North Carolina A&T over Liberty, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over North Carolina A&T, Missouri over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Memphis over Middle Tennessee, Valparaiso over Michigan State, Creighton over Cincinnati, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Missouri, St. Louis over Oklahoma State, Memphis over Valparaiso, Duke over Creighton
Louisville over St. Louis, Memphis over Duke
Memphis over Louisville
West Guts:
La Salle over Boise State
Gonzaga over Southern, Wichita State over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over La Salle, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Wichita State, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
West Brains:
Boise State over La Salle
Gonzaga over Southern, Pittsburgh over Wichita State, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over Boise State, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Pittsburgh, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State
South Guts:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, VCU over Akron, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State over Oklahoma, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, VCU over Michigan, Florida over Michigan, Georgetown over San Diego State
VCU over Kansas, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over VCU
South Brains:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, Akron over VCU, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, Michigan over Akron, Florida over Minnesota, Georgetown over San Diego State
Kansas over Michigan, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over Kansas
East Guts:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, NC State over Temple, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Butler over Bucknell, Davidson over Marquette, Colorado over Illinois, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over NC State, UNLV over Montana, Butler over Davidson, Miami (FL) over Colorado
Indiana over UNLV, Miami (FL) over Butler
Indiana over Miami (FL)
East Brains:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, Temple over NC State, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Bucknell over Butler, Marquette over Davidson, Illinois over Colorado, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over Temple, Montana over UNLV, Bucknell over Marquette, Miami (FL) over Illinois
Indiana over Montana, Bucknell over Miami (FL)
Indiana over Bucknell
Final Four Guts:
Louisville over Gonzaga, Indiana over Florida
Indiana over Louisville
Final Four Brains:
Gonzaga over Memphis, Indiana over Florida
Gonzaga over Indiana
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Why is it called the First Four?
Some people have been calling the first round of the NCAA Tournament the "First Four" (or maybe they don't, but it's in my head anyway). If the Final Four refers to the last 4 teams left, should the first round be the First Eight?
Moving on...
I'm working on my brackets for the actual tournament draw (blog coming tomorrow or Thursday), but here is what the bracket would have looked like if I were running the show (no regional pods or conference concerns):
1: Louisville vs. 16: Southern or Liberty
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Northwestern State
3: New Mexico vs. 14: Iona
4: St. Louis vs. 13: New Mexico State
5: Michigan vs. 12: Valparaiso
6: UCLA vs. 11: Boise State
7: San Diego State vs. 10: Villanova
8: Illinois vs. 9: Notre Dame
1: Duke vs. 16: Long Island or North Carolina A&T
2: Florida vs. 15: Florida Gulf Coast
3: Syracuse vs. 14: Harvard
4: Arizona vs. 13: Bucknell
5: North Carolina vs. 12: Oregon
6: Minnesota vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Memphis vs. 10: Wichita State
8: Creighton vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: James Madison
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Pacific
4: Wisconsin vs. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: Pittsburgh vs. 11: Southern Miss
7: UNLV vs. 10: Belmont
8: Butler vs. 9: Colorado
1: Ohio State vs. 16: Albany
2: Kansas vs. 15: Western Kentucky
3: Georgetown vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette vs. 13: Davidson
5: Kansas State vs. 12: Iowa State or California
6: VCU vs. 11: Mississippi
7: Colorado State vs. 10: Oklahoma
8: Missouri vs. 9: St. Mary's
Last 4 In: Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, California, La Salle
First 4 Out: Kentucky, Temple, Tennessee, Alabama
Next 8 Out (I considered 8 extra teams just to see how close it was): Denver, Massachusetts, BYU, Florida State, Detroit, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F Austin
Basically, my bracket is all the same teams (minus Temple, plus Southern Miss) and in a slightly difference seeding order.
I'm working on two brackets; one picking from the gut, the other picking with the stats. But with the "First Four" starting tonight, here are the picks for the first round games:
Middle Tennesse vs. St. Mary's - gut and brains agree that Middle Tennesse will prove it belongs with tough defense.
Boise State vs. La Salle - the stats lean slightly to a bigger, slightly more efficient Boise team, but my gut says La Salle's strengths will be stronger.
Long Island vs. James Madison - Long Island is going to run and JMU doesn't have a stout enough defense, the stats and brain agree.
North Carolina A&T vs. Liberty - the Flames are just glad to still be playing, my gut says they ride the hot streak, but the numbers favor NC A&T.
Moving on...
I'm working on my brackets for the actual tournament draw (blog coming tomorrow or Thursday), but here is what the bracket would have looked like if I were running the show (no regional pods or conference concerns):
1: Louisville vs. 16: Southern or Liberty
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Northwestern State
3: New Mexico vs. 14: Iona
4: St. Louis vs. 13: New Mexico State
5: Michigan vs. 12: Valparaiso
6: UCLA vs. 11: Boise State
7: San Diego State vs. 10: Villanova
8: Illinois vs. 9: Notre Dame
1: Duke vs. 16: Long Island or North Carolina A&T
2: Florida vs. 15: Florida Gulf Coast
3: Syracuse vs. 14: Harvard
4: Arizona vs. 13: Bucknell
5: North Carolina vs. 12: Oregon
6: Minnesota vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Memphis vs. 10: Wichita State
8: Creighton vs. 9: NC State
1: Indiana vs. 16: James Madison
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Pacific
4: Wisconsin vs. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: Pittsburgh vs. 11: Southern Miss
7: UNLV vs. 10: Belmont
8: Butler vs. 9: Colorado
1: Ohio State vs. 16: Albany
2: Kansas vs. 15: Western Kentucky
3: Georgetown vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette vs. 13: Davidson
5: Kansas State vs. 12: Iowa State or California
6: VCU vs. 11: Mississippi
7: Colorado State vs. 10: Oklahoma
8: Missouri vs. 9: St. Mary's
Last 4 In: Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, California, La Salle
First 4 Out: Kentucky, Temple, Tennessee, Alabama
Next 8 Out (I considered 8 extra teams just to see how close it was): Denver, Massachusetts, BYU, Florida State, Detroit, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F Austin
Basically, my bracket is all the same teams (minus Temple, plus Southern Miss) and in a slightly difference seeding order.
I'm working on two brackets; one picking from the gut, the other picking with the stats. But with the "First Four" starting tonight, here are the picks for the first round games:
Middle Tennesse vs. St. Mary's - gut and brains agree that Middle Tennesse will prove it belongs with tough defense.
Boise State vs. La Salle - the stats lean slightly to a bigger, slightly more efficient Boise team, but my gut says La Salle's strengths will be stronger.
Long Island vs. James Madison - Long Island is going to run and JMU doesn't have a stout enough defense, the stats and brain agree.
North Carolina A&T vs. Liberty - the Flames are just glad to still be playing, my gut says they ride the hot streak, but the numbers favor NC A&T.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Things Went Down on Thurday
With no real changes from Tuesday and Wednesday's action (I crunched the numbers both days and no one moved in or out), I though about not checking today. I'm glad I did! When the top four seeds fail to lose a game in a conference tournament stuff gets crazy. Even thought the carnage of the MEAC bracket didn't affect those teams on the bubble, it lends evidence to how intense Thursday's games were.
I didn't think there'd be much but I did notice some slight changes, so here you go: (Auto-bids in bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Kansas v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
3: Georgetown v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: North Carolina v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Villanova
7: St. Louis v. 10: Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Indiana v. 16: Long Island (NEC) or Morgan State
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Michigan v. 13: New Mexico State
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: San Diego State v. 11: Boise State
7: Missouri v. 10: NC State
8: Memphis v. 9: Notre Dame
1: Louisville v. 16: James Madison (Colonial)
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Syracuse v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell (Patriot)
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Temple or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Colorado State v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Creighton (MVC) v. 9: Kentucky
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State (Summit)
4: Marquette v. 13: Davidson (SoCon)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Iowa State
6: VCU v. 11: California
7: Illinois v. 10: Oklahoma
8: UNLV v. 9: Colorado
Last 4 In:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
La Salle
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
I didn't think there'd be much but I did notice some slight changes, so here you go: (Auto-bids in bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Kansas v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
3: Georgetown v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: North Carolina v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Villanova
7: St. Louis v. 10: Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Indiana v. 16: Long Island (NEC) or Morgan State
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Michigan v. 13: New Mexico State
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: San Diego State v. 11: Boise State
7: Missouri v. 10: NC State
8: Memphis v. 9: Notre Dame
1: Louisville v. 16: James Madison (Colonial)
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Syracuse v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell (Patriot)
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Temple or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Colorado State v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Creighton (MVC) v. 9: Kentucky
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State (Summit)
4: Marquette v. 13: Davidson (SoCon)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Iowa State
6: VCU v. 11: California
7: Illinois v. 10: Oklahoma
8: UNLV v. 9: Colorado
Last 4 In:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
La Salle
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Sometimes Things Can Change in a Day, Right?
Okay, so with a few more bids secured last night, here is my updated bracket: (automatic bids in Bold)
1: Duke v. 16: Norfolk State or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Wichita State
7: San Diego State v. 10: Villanova
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Indiana v. 16: James Madison (Colonial) or Southern
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Syracuse v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: California
7: St. Louis v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Louisville v. 16: Long Island
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Georgetown v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson (Southern)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: Colorado State v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Memphis v. 9: Colorado
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Missouri v. 9: Kentucky
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Tennessee
I know I've got a few conference games, but the basic idea is where teams fall as far as deserved seeding based on my criteria. The biggest thing is Middle Tennessee being 5 team above the cut line with Western Kentucky taking the Sun Belt auto-bid. Can they hold on?
Denver (a new team this week) is the first team out, but scores higher than WAC counterpart Louisiana Tech. I have Tech in because they are the top seed in the tournament, so this could change at any moment.
1: Duke v. 16: Norfolk State or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Wichita State
7: San Diego State v. 10: Villanova
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Indiana v. 16: James Madison (Colonial) or Southern
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Syracuse v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: California
7: St. Louis v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: St. Mary's
1: Louisville v. 16: Long Island
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Georgetown v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson (Southern)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: Colorado State v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Memphis v. 9: Colorado
1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Missouri v. 9: Kentucky
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Tennessee
I know I've got a few conference games, but the basic idea is where teams fall as far as deserved seeding based on my criteria. The biggest thing is Middle Tennessee being 5 team above the cut line with Western Kentucky taking the Sun Belt auto-bid. Can they hold on?
Denver (a new team this week) is the first team out, but scores higher than WAC counterpart Louisiana Tech. I have Tech in because they are the top seed in the tournament, so this could change at any moment.
Monday, March 11, 2013
It's Crazyness! (Because Madness is Overdone)
Before we get to my updated rankings for today, allow me a moment to rant on the Missouri Tigers and their situation.
A week ago the Tigers were tied with Mississippi for 4th place in the SEC. They were still alive for the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, but they needed to beat Arkansas and Tennessee, have Kentucky lose to Georgia AND Florida, and have the winner of the Alabama vs. Mississippi game lose their Saturday game. A lot to ask for, but possible.
On Saturday morning, all the chips were in place. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Georgia, Mississippi beat Alabama (they were playing at LSU, while Alabama was home for Georgia). This had created a 4-way tie for second place. Then, in the span of an hour, the shit hit the fan. Florida failed to score ANYTHING in the final 7:30 and let Kentucky come back to win. Alabama hit a half-court buzzer beater to beat Georgia. Mississippi handled LSU. And finally, Phil Pressey hoisted the most ill-advised 3-pointer EVER (like in all the history of basketball EVER), causing the Tigers to fall into a tie with Tennessee for 5th place... which Tennessee then owned the tie-break.
Why was Pressey's shot so bad? The Tigers were down 3. They had 2 timeouts left. They had 17 seconds left. He (nor most of his teammates) hadn't made one all game. They had 2 timeouts left. There is ABSOLUTELY NO BASKETBALL LOGIC BEHIND HIS DECISION. Sure, if it goes in, great... but then Tennessee had 12 seconds and a timeout to win it.
Half the blame could go to coach Haith... he could have called timeout. But most of it goes on Pressey. I'd be apologizing for him all season; defending him after the Kentucky loss when my wife was sick of him; blaming the defense for the loss to A&M; citing poor coaching for the loss to UCLA; missing Lawrence Bowers against LSU; and roasting the officiating against Arkansas. I can't do that anymore. This one's on him. Not just the bad shot, but he had three or four defensive lapses in the second half and I don't think he got the the free throw line once. If you want to take the last shot, run a play for yourself, use some clock and get a screen. The better no-timeout, no-play, too quick decision would have been to just drive at the basket, maybe get 3 the old-fashioned way. Nothing about his shot makes any sense to anyone that knows basketball... worst of all, he airballed it.
Okay, on with the rankings (bold teams have clinched an automatic bid):
1: Indiana v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Syracuse v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Colorado
7: UCLA v. 10 Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Duke v. 16: Long Island or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Georgetown v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: Colorado State v. 11: California
7: San Diego State v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: Kentucky
1: Louisville v. 16: Northeastern
2: Ohio State v. 15: Florida International
3: New Mexico v. 14: Iona
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: St. Louis v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Villanova
8: Memphis v. 9: Belmont (OVC)
1: Michigan State v. 16: Montana
2: Florida v. 15: Vermont
3: Marquette v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Missouri v. 9: Notre Dame
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Bids Handed Out Tonight:
Colonial (Northeastern v. James Madison)
Southern (Davidson v. Charleston)
Sun Belt (Florida International v. Western Kentucky)
MAAC (Iona v. Manhattan)
WCC (Gonzaga v. St. Mary's)
A week ago the Tigers were tied with Mississippi for 4th place in the SEC. They were still alive for the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, but they needed to beat Arkansas and Tennessee, have Kentucky lose to Georgia AND Florida, and have the winner of the Alabama vs. Mississippi game lose their Saturday game. A lot to ask for, but possible.
On Saturday morning, all the chips were in place. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Georgia, Mississippi beat Alabama (they were playing at LSU, while Alabama was home for Georgia). This had created a 4-way tie for second place. Then, in the span of an hour, the shit hit the fan. Florida failed to score ANYTHING in the final 7:30 and let Kentucky come back to win. Alabama hit a half-court buzzer beater to beat Georgia. Mississippi handled LSU. And finally, Phil Pressey hoisted the most ill-advised 3-pointer EVER (like in all the history of basketball EVER), causing the Tigers to fall into a tie with Tennessee for 5th place... which Tennessee then owned the tie-break.
Why was Pressey's shot so bad? The Tigers were down 3. They had 2 timeouts left. They had 17 seconds left. He (nor most of his teammates) hadn't made one all game. They had 2 timeouts left. There is ABSOLUTELY NO BASKETBALL LOGIC BEHIND HIS DECISION. Sure, if it goes in, great... but then Tennessee had 12 seconds and a timeout to win it.
Half the blame could go to coach Haith... he could have called timeout. But most of it goes on Pressey. I'd be apologizing for him all season; defending him after the Kentucky loss when my wife was sick of him; blaming the defense for the loss to A&M; citing poor coaching for the loss to UCLA; missing Lawrence Bowers against LSU; and roasting the officiating against Arkansas. I can't do that anymore. This one's on him. Not just the bad shot, but he had three or four defensive lapses in the second half and I don't think he got the the free throw line once. If you want to take the last shot, run a play for yourself, use some clock and get a screen. The better no-timeout, no-play, too quick decision would have been to just drive at the basket, maybe get 3 the old-fashioned way. Nothing about his shot makes any sense to anyone that knows basketball... worst of all, he airballed it.
Okay, on with the rankings (bold teams have clinched an automatic bid):
1: Indiana v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Syracuse v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Colorado
7: UCLA v. 10 Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma
1: Duke v. 16: Long Island or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Georgetown v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: Colorado State v. 11: California
7: San Diego State v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: Kentucky
1: Louisville v. 16: Northeastern
2: Ohio State v. 15: Florida International
3: New Mexico v. 14: Iona
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: St. Louis v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Villanova
8: Memphis v. 9: Belmont (OVC)
1: Michigan State v. 16: Montana
2: Florida v. 15: Vermont
3: Marquette v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Missouri v. 9: Notre Dame
Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss
First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Bids Handed Out Tonight:
Colonial (Northeastern v. James Madison)
Southern (Davidson v. Charleston)
Sun Belt (Florida International v. Western Kentucky)
MAAC (Iona v. Manhattan)
WCC (Gonzaga v. St. Mary's)
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