NFL Week 12 Picks

I've always been bothered by the Lions and Cowboys getting showcased on Thanksgiving and getting a team to come to their place on a short week. The teams that play on Thanksgiving should get their bye week the Sunday before it. It didn't hurt the Packers, but it sure seemed to hurt the Giants.

Falcons over Buccaneers... Probably the most disappointing team this year outside of the Ravens and maybe it's because they both have a "sophomore slump" quarterbacks and running games that can be keyed on. Unfortunately the Bucs have a quarterback that shouldn't be playing in the NFL and have really forgot how to play defense.

Dolphins over Bills... um, not sure what to say about this game. New coach, same crappy offense.

Bengals over Browns... Time for the Bengals to put the pedal to the metal and take control of the second seed in the AFC.

Seahawks over Rams... No Bulger, no winning. Stephen Jackson can't throw the ball too.

Jets over Panthers... I really want to believe in the Jets and this is their last chance with me.

Eagles over Redskins... So, the 'Skins had a chance to knock off the Cowboys at home, but they blew it with only 6 points and a defensive let down at the end. Not sure if they can get emotionally charged to play the Eagles as well as they played the Cowboys.

Colts over Texans... I'm not picking against Peyton the rest of the year (or until they have locked up home-field advantage).

Chargers over Chiefs... After their performance last week, I really think the Chiefs CAN win. But it's at San Diego, and it's the Chiefs... so take the Chargers.

49ers over Jaguars... Sure, the Jags are coming on strong, but who've they beaten? Nobody I'm concerned about. Plus, the Niners beat the Crabtree curse and have had a long week.

Titans over Cardinals... When January rolls around and the Titans are still playing, I'll be here laughing because I told you so. They should have been playing Young a lot sooner.

Vikings over Bears... Same philosophy as the Colts, with their defense and their running game, Favre could win it all again.

Steelers over Ravens... I know Big Ben is out, I know they lost to the Chiefs, but I'm really sure they don't want to lose again. A loss would put them in big trouble in the playoff race especially with the Titans, Jags, and Chargers coming on.

Patriots over Saints... Here's my faith in the NFL parity system. No way the Patriots lose and let the Colts lock up home-field already. No way the Saints win and hold off the Vikings in the NFC. I know the Superdome will be rocking, but the Patriots offense should be able to keep up.

This week: 2-1
Last week: 13-3
Season: 108-52

Week 13 College Picks - Turkey Time!

Happy Thanksgiving to all! For today's NFL games I'll take the Packers, Cowboys, and Giants.

Here are this week's rankings:
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (11-0)
3. Texas (11-0)
4. Texas Christian (11-0)
5. Boise State (11-0)
6. Cincinnati (10-0)
7. Georgia Tech (10-1)
8. Pittsburgh (9-1)
9. Ohio State (10-2)
10. Iowa (10-2)
11. Penn State (10-2)
12. Oregon (9-2)
13. Houston (9-2)
14. Oklahoma State (9-2)
15. Utah (9-2)
16. Brigham Young (9-2)
17. Central Michigan (9-2)
18. Temple (9-2)
19. North Carolina (8-3)
20. Virginia Tech (8-3)
21. Clemson (8-3)
22. Miami (FL) (8-3)
23. Oregon State (8-3)
24. Louisiana State (8-3)
25. California (8-3)
26. Nebraska (8-3)
27. Mississippi (8-3)
28. Wisconsin (8-3)
29. Navy (8-3)
30. Southern Cal (7-3)
31. West Virginia (7-3)
32. Nevada (8-3)
33. Northwestern (8-4)
34. Stanford (7-4)
35. Auburn (7-4)
36. Texas Tech (7-4)
37. Kentucky (7-4)
38. Arizona (6-4)

Honorable Mention: Ohio (8-3), Troy (8-3), Middle Tennessee State (8-3), South Florida (7-3), Rutgers (7-3), Boston College (7-4), Missouri (7-4), East Carolina (7-4), Southern Miss (7-4), Northern Illinois (7-4), Arkansas (7-4), Idaho (7-4), Fresno State (7-4).

This week's games:
Arkansas over #24 LSU
#15 Utah over #16 BYU
#34 Stanford over Notre Dame
#7 Georgia Tech over Georgia
#22 Miami (FL) over South Florida
#27 Mississippi over Mississippi State
#21 Clemson over South Carolina
#19 North Carolina over North Carolina State
#20 Virginia Tech over Virginia
#2 Florida over Florida State

Last Week: 6-4 (33 pts.)
Season: 82-38 (479 pts. 98th percentile)

NFL Week 11 Picks

Because I've been busy this weekend with school and family/holiday plans, this is an abridged version of the picks for the week. Feel free to ask for a reason, I just don't have time at the moment.

Lions over Browns
Packers over 49ers
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Redskins
Giants over Falcons
Saints over Buccaneers
Jaguars over Bills
Colts over Ravens
Vikings over Seahawks
Cardinals over Rams
Chargers over Broncos
Bengals over Raiders
Patriots over Jets
Eagles over Bears
Texans over Titans

Last Week: 7-8
Season: 95-49

College Week 12 Picks

Since we are into the ridiculous "NFL on other days than Sunday and Monday" part of the season, I must remember the "showdown" tonight.

Dolphins over Panthers ... Yes, they are on the road. Yes, they have struggled to be 4-5. Yes, they are without their best player (Ronnie Brown). But I really think the Dolphins are better than 4-5 and the Panthers are worse than 4-5... you'll see. Pat White and Ricky Williams can run the wildcat without Brown.

Before I get to my college picks, I thought I'd run down my preseaon picks and "remodel" them for the final 3 weeks.

ACC - Georgia Tech over Clemson (Preseason Pick - Georgia Tech over Florida State) I was half right. I also got UNC's resurgence pretty close.

Big12 - Texas over Nebraska (Preseason Pick - Texas over Nebraska) Right on! Nebraska had some surprising losses, and I was too nice to OU. I can't be blamed for Baylor's injuries.

Big Ten - Ohio State (clinched) (Preseason Pick - Penn State) They surprised me by not winning at home and Illinois fell apart again.

Big East - Pittsburgh (Preseason Pick - Cincinnati) I had Pitt second and I'm changing my mind now because the Pitt offensive is surging and I think Cincinnati is one big mistake away from ruining the season.

C-USA - East Carolina over Houston (Preseason Pick - Houston over East Carolina) Changing my mind because Houston couldn't take care of business. I still think SMU will slip and let Houston off the hook and back in the game. I did underestimate SMU, and was close with Houston's BCS talk.

MAC - Central Michigan over Temple (Preseason Pick - Buffalo over Central Michigan) The Bulls let me down, they had so much potential. Temple came out of nowhere (read: easy schedule) but I was almost dead on with the Chips.

MWC - Texas Christian (clinched) (Preseason Pick - Texas Christian) NAILED IT!!

Pac-10 - Oregon (Preseason Pick - Southern Cal) Thanks a lot Trojans. I did have the Ducks second and the Wildcats fourth.

SEC - Florida over Alabama (Preseason Pick - Florida over Alabama) While the results are pending... NAILED IT! Florida will win the SEC Championship 3-0 on a Tim Tebow 55-yard field goal in triple OT... with the Gators having only 65 yards of offense and the Tide going 0-7 in the red zone, Tebow will come out to kick the winning field goal after his kicker misses one in each of the previous two OTs.

Sun Belt - Troy (Preseason Pick - Troy) Whiffed on Western Kentucky actually winning, but nailed Troy as well as I could.

WAC - Boise State (Preseason Pick - Boise State) Pending Boise surviving Nevada, I nailed the top three in this conference.

My BCS Top 10 predictions are 6 for 10. Swap Boise State with Houston and Alabama with Virginia Tech, and I only missed on USC and Penn State.

This week's Rankings:

1: Alabama (10-0)
2: Florida (10-0)
3: Cincinnati (10-0)
4: Texas (10-0)

5: Texas Christian (10-0)
6: Boise State (10-0)
7: Georgia Tech (10-1)
8: Pittsburgh (9-1)
9: Ohio State (9-2)
10: Iowa (9-2)
11: Penn State (9-2)
12: Oregon (8-2)
13: Louisiana State (8-2)
14: Oklahoma State (8-2)
15: Wisconsin (8-2)
16: Utah (8-2)
17: Brigham Young (8-2)
18: Houston (8-2)
19: Temple (8-2)
20: Rutgers (7-2)
21: Navy (8-3)
22: Virginia Tech (7-3)
23: Southern Cal (7-3)
24: Miami (FL) (7-3)
25: Stanford (7-3)
26: Oregon State (7-3)
27: Clemson (7-3)
28: North Carolina (7-3)
29: California (7-3)
30: West Virginia (7-3)
31: Nebraska (7-3)
32: Boston College (7-3)
33: Mississippi (7-3)
34: Nevada (7-3)
35: Arizona (6-3)
36: Auburn (7-4)
37: Georgia (6-4)
38: Oklahoma (6-4)
39: Texas Tech (6-4)

Honorable Mention: Central Michigan (8-2), Northern Illinois (7-3), Ohio (7-3), Troy (7-3), Middle Tennessee State (7-3), Idaho (7-4), Air Force (7-4), Northwestern (7-4).

This week's games:
Mississippi over #13 Louisiana State... going for the home team upset.

#35 Arizona over #12 Oregon... Oregon gets stuck looking ahead, but still wins the Pac-10.

#28 North Carolina over #32 Boston College... BC is one of the most erratic teams, and so is UNC, going with the Heels.

#17 Brigham Young over Air Force... The Cougars are getting ready for Utah, and might get trapped, but probably not.

#38 Oklahoma over #39 Texas Tech... OU has struggled against good defenses, guess what Tech doesn't have?

#29 California over #25 Stanford... it's time for a let down for Stanford.

Notre Dame over Connecticut... fighting for Charlie's job? It'll come down to Stanford.

#37 Georgia over Kentucky... Basketball season started, time for Kentucky to stop playing football.

#11 Penn State over Michigan State... Penn State might be the best third-place team since Texas Tech last year.

#9 Ohio State over Michigan... possibly a trap game for OSU, but I'm sure they won't let the Wolverines ruin their "Rose Run."

Last Week: 7-3 (38 pts.)
Season: 76-34 (446 pts., 96th percentile)

NFL Week 10 Picks

You saw from my college column this week that I had the Bears over the 49ers and Jay Cutler decided to kick me in the testicles and throw 5 picks. So, the Crabtree Curse is over and Cutler sucks.

For this week, there were many easy games to call...
Saints over Rams... I know they won a game and they had their bye week, but does anyone really think the Rams are the team that will knock off the Saints?
Dolphins over Buccaneers... A note for Tampa fans: Josh Freeman was well known in college for having 1 great game against a great team followed by 4 stinkers against mediocre teams. He once beat Texas in Austin and his team STILL did not make a bowl that year. He was benched after 1 quarter against Mizzou last year.
Vikings over Lions... Give Favre, Peterson, and Allen a week off then the Lions? Victory.
Jets over Jaguars... I really think the Jets can get it going and a home game against the Jags is a pretty good start.
Broncos over Redskins... Time to get back on track Broncos. The Chargers are lurking in the rear-view mirror again.
Ravens over Browns... The Browns get to play a Monday night game? It what world is this justifiable?? C'mon, man.

There are a few that took a while to decide on a sure winner...
Falcons over Panthers... I think Matt Ryan will have good game (more on that later), and Delhomme will also complete some passes to the Falcons.
Titans over Bills... T.O. is hurt and the Titans are getting rolling. They will probably move out of the bad team category to the "eh" team level.
Cowboys over Packers... So, Aaron Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB and my starter. Ever since the Raven's bye week, I've been taking defenses on a week-to-week basis. I decided on the Cowboys this week to get several sacks and a couple picks, so I benched Rodgers (and Ryan Grant) and I'm putting all my weight on the Dallas D.

Then there are the head scratchers...
Cardinals over Seahawks... Revenge factor for the Cardinals? Can the Seahawks run the ball? NFC West Championship on the line? Too many questions, no good answer.
Raiders over Chiefs... The loser will challenge the Browns for the worst team this year. Who wants Tebow??
Steelers over Bengals... Revenge for the rolling Steelers, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Bengals.
Chargers over Eagles... They always talk about how much trouble west coast teams have in early games on the east coast. What about east coast teams playing in late games on the west coast. The Eagles will think it's 7 when the game starts and the sun will still be out.
Patriots over Colts... If the Colts are going to lose this year, it will be this game. Their secondary is banged up, and the Patriots are looking to end their recent losing streak to the Colts.

Last Week: 9-4
Season: 88-41

Week 10 College Football

It's do or die time in College football, and you know everything will be up for grabs because I have a new number one. But first things first:

Bears over 49ers... I wavered just long enough, so don't think this is an uber-confident pick here. I'm totally riding the Crabtree Curse until the Niners win with him.

Rankings for this week:
1: Alabama (9-0)
2: Florida (9-0)
3: Cincinnati (9-0)
4: Texas (9-0)
5: Texas Christian (9-0)
6: Boise State (9-0)
7: Georgia Tech (9-1)
8: Iowa (9-1)
9: Pittsburgh (8-1)
10: Utah (8-1)
11: Houston (8-1)
12: Ohio State (8-2)
13: Penn State (8-2)
14: Oregon (7-2)
15: Southern Cal (7-2)
16: Miami (FL) (7-2)
17: Louisiana State (7-2)
18: West Virginia (7-2)
19: Oklahoma State (7-2)
20: Wisconsin (7-2)
21: Brigham Young (7-2)
22: Temple (7-2)
23: Arizona (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Auburn (7-3)
27: Navy (7-3)
28: Virginia Tech (6-3)
29: Oregon State (6-3)
30: Stanford (6-3)
31: Clemson (6-3)
32: Texas Tech (6-3)
33: Nebraska (6-3)
34: Mississippi (6-3)
35: Fresno State (6-3)
36: Kansas State (6-4)
37: Tennessee (5-4)

Honorable Mention: Ohio (7-3), Central Michigan (7-2), Idaho (7-3), Troy (7-2).

Weekly Picks:
Georgia over #26 Auburn ... I know this might be a silly upset pick, but I don't like the Tigers on the road in a rivalry game. Maybe they are getting nervous about the upcoming Iron Bowl, who knows?
#34 Mississippi over #37 Tennessee ... They are not a top 5 team, but they are a quality team, probably 9-3 worthy. The Vols are no better than 7-5, so I'll take the Rebels at home.
#16 Miami (FL) over North Carolina ... Every time I get behind the Canes, they let me down (see loss to Clemson). The Tar Heels have some great wins, but they let Florida State off the hook. I'll go with the Canes to keep pace in the division.
#5 Texas Christian over #10 Utah ... Give me the Frogs stifling defense against a freshman quarterback any day. Even if the freshman has been sparking the Utes. A TCU loss would be the end of the MWC auto-bid argument.
#15 Southern Cal over #30 Stanford ... Two factors are key for this game: one, Stanford ran all over Oregon the week after Oregon ran all over USC; two, USC wants sweet revenge for Stanfords upset in '07. I'm taking the second option because I think USC fixed the problems.
#9 Pittsburgh over Notre Dame ... The Irish are sunk. They do one thing well... Clausen to Tate. That being said, if they are going to return to glory, now is the time. I'm just tired of Weis's job being safe or fragile week to week and it being news. Apparently each game is the biggest of his career.
#2 Florida over South Carolina ... I'm not buying into the "Spurrier against his old team at home" idea. Tebow doesn't like to lose, Spikes hates to lose, and the Pouncey twins love to eat the celebratory buffet... so Gators all the way!
#19 Oklahoma State over #32 Texas Tech ... This Tech team is not quite like last year's. It's more like it usually is... blowing out the weaker teams, not stopping the better teams. They are a bowl team, not a division champ team. The Cowboys are playing for the Cotton Bowl.
#11 Houston over Central Florida ... I think Tulsa was the last barrier to Houston's 12-win season and C-USA championship. UCF can play with the Cougs, but I don't think the team that beat both teams from the previous game in back-to-back games will do just fine.
#12 Ohio State over #8 Iowa ... If Stanzi wasn't hurt I'd be taking Iowa. The back-up on the big stage, on the road, against a surging high-quality team is not a good pick. That being said, there is the let-down chance for the Buckeyes.

Last Week: 6-4 (29 pts.)
Season: 69-31 (408 pts., 95th percentile)

NFL Week 9 Picks

It's a turning point week in the season. We're halfway done and there are some obviously great teams, some obviously bad teams, and some "Eh" teams. The "Eh" teams might make the playoffs and they might get top 10 draft picks. So there is a lot still to be determined.
Obviously great teams: Colts, Saints, Steelers, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Eagles.
Obviously bad teams: Browns, Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, Redskins, Bills, Titans.
"Eh" teams: Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Bears.

Falcons over Redskins... "Eh" team number one. Great running game and quarterback, but they are not good enough to challenge the Saints and the Eagles. Good thing obviously bad team number one comes to town this week.
Cardinals over Bears... Two "Eh" teams coming off less than stellar performances. I really think they need to start calling it the Kyle Orton trade. Chicago appears to have gotten the shit-end of the stick on that one.
Ravens over Bengals... I'm taking the road team again in another battle of "Eh" teams. I expect the Ravens to exact revenge for the early season upset. No let down on the way to the playoffs.
Colts over Texans... I really wanted to pick the Texans, they might be the best "Eh" team, they are playoff caliber, and they play the Colts well. But picking against Manning at home is awfully silly.
Patriots over Dolphins... I truly believe the Patriots are a great team. They'll prove it by beating the "Eh" Dolphins soundly.
Packers over Buccaneers... The Pack is a few new offensive linemen away from being a great team, despite the losses to the Vikings. I'm not sure when the Buccaneers will win another game, it might be 2010.
Jaguars over Chiefs... I'll give the struggling "Eh" team the nod against the terrible team that might not win again until 2011... or maybe against the Browns. Plus, I don't think the Chiefs have ever won in Jacksonville.
Seahawks over Lions... They lost to the Rams. 'Nuff said.
Saints over Panthers... The Panthers should have fallen into the bad team category but for some reason they keep winning with Jake Delhomme.
Giants over Chargers... West coast team on the east coast without a consistent offense? Take the Giants.
Titans over 49ers... As much as I like the Niners and Mike Singletary, I'm taking the upset. The Titans figured something out last week. Oh, and then there's the Crabtree Curse (0-3 since he signed).
Eagles over Cowboys... Here is where the Eagles prove they are a great team and take control of the division race.
Steelers over Broncos... The Broncos may fall to an "Eh" team if they don't get back to knocking people in the mouth.

Last Week: 8-5
Season: 79-37

Week 8 College Football

So, I guess I have only one reader as only one person responded. Thanks, Conn. The future of this blog is all for you.
Yes, Iowa is my number one. I know they have barely beaten some bad teams, and got some controversial call to go their way last week, but they have more wins than anyone else and NO LOSSES. You know I'm of the school of thought that no losses is better than one loss, no matter who that loss was too.

1: Iowa (9-0)
2: Alabama (8-0)
3: Florida (8-0)
4: Texas (8-0)
5: Cincinnati (8-0)
6: Texas Christian (8-0)
7: Boise State (8-0)
8: Georgia Tech (8-1)
9: Penn State (8-1)
10: Oregon (7-1)
11: Louisiana State (7-1)
12: Pittsburgh (7-1)
13: Utah (7-1)
14: Houston (7-1)
15: Ohio State (7-2)
16: Central Michigan (7-2)
17: Idaho (7-2)
18: Southern California (6-2)
19: Miami (FL) (6-2)
20: Notre Dame (6-2)
21: California (6-2)
22: West Virginia (6-2)
23: Oklahoma State (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Wisconsin (6-2)
26: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Brigham Young (6-2)
28: Temple (6-2)
29: Auburn (6-3)
30: Texas Tech (6-3)
31: Boston College (6-3)
32: Arizona (5-2)
33: Oklahoma (5-3)
34: Virginia Tech (5-3)
35: Clemson (5-3)
36: Tennessee (4-4)

Honorable Mention: Navy (6-3), Ohio (6-3), South Carolina (6-3), Troy (6-3).

Oregon State over #21 California... I'm casually calling for the upset. The Bears are up and down. Sure, their only losses are to USC and Oregon. But they were not pretty losses. I have more confidence in the Beavers' passing game than the Bears passing defense.
Arkansas over South Carolina... Upset special. I've been thoroughly unimpressed with the Cocks in their big games. They barely beat NC State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Arkansas would have beat three of those team easily (they didn't beat Ole Miss).
#9 Penn State over #15 Ohio State... I'll take the home team, mostly because Terrell Pryor is not who we thought he was.
#35 Clemson over Florida State... A little bit of off-field distraction with coaching decisions for the Seminoles will be enough for the Tigers who always play well at home at night on TV.
Michigan over Purdue... At some point this spread running game will get to the slow, plodding Big 10 defenses. I think Michigan turns it around... let's say they win 8 of their next 10 games (includes next season).
Kansas State over Kansas... The Sunflower Showdown? Really? It's sad to say that no one is out of the Big 12 North picture... Remember, the 5-4 "division-leading" Wildcats have 2 wins over FCS schools (their other wins are Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Colorado). No one has been impressive in this division (3-9 against the South, with 2 wins against Baylor).
#2 Alabama over #11 LSU... This will be VERY low scoring, if there is no touchdowns, don't be surprised. But Alabama is just more polished.
#10 Oregon over Stanford... Remember, I like the Cardinal running game, but 600 yards on USC's defense? Come on.
#18 Southern Cal over Arizona State... Speaking of the USC defense, is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Trojans will be playing pissed this week??
#33 Oklahoma over Nebraksa... Speaking of unimpressive Big 12 North teams, I can't believe Mizzou lost to this Nebraksa team.

Last Week 8-2 (51 pts.)
Season: 63-27 (379 pts., 91st percentile)