In honor of my friend RC who is in town for a marathon this weekend, I'll be adding his two cents on my picks.
College Picks:
Alabama over Florida... RC is not impressed by the Florida offense, and doesn't think they'll score much.
Boston College over Notre Dame
Stanford over Oregon... RC will take smash-mouth over speed anytime.
Iowa over Penn State
Virginia Tech over NC State
Michigan over Indiana
Wisconsin over Michigan State
Oklahoma over Texas... RC absolutely hates Oklahoma, but he agrees Oklahoma is the smart pick.
Miami over Clemson
USC over Washington
Last Week: 7-3 (49 pts.)
Season: 25-15 (165 pts.)
Pro Picks:
Falcons over 49ers
Jets over Bills
Bengals over Browns
Packers over Lions
Titans over Broncos
Seahawks over Rams
Saints over Panthers
Steelers over Ravens
Colts over Jaguars
Texans over Raiders
Chargers over Cardinals
Eagles over Redskins... RC's Eagles are too dangerous with Vick
Bears over Giants
Dolphins over Patriots... RC says he can't trust the Patriots defense against a Dolphins offense that has figured things out.
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 28-20
Bold prediction of the week: Both the Tigers and Chiefs will remain undefeated this weekend. (I love bye weeks)
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
The Q Factor
In honor of ConnQ's birthday, this week's picks (again combined) will focus on the Q-Factor, or what I believe ConnQ would think is the most important part of each game.
College Picks:
Boston College over Virginia Tech - Q-Factor: the Hokies' collective memory. Sure, they "redeemed" themselves after the loss to James Madison (not just one guy) by pounding ECU. But they trailed at halftime and didn't really take over until ECU starting making mistakes. If they are still thinking about the 0-2 start, they'll choke this one up.
Georgia Tech over NC State - Q-Factor: NC State's athleticism. Georgia Tech lost to kansas, who has lost to North Dakota St. and Southern Miss. How did Georgia Tech lose to kansas? The jayhawks are athletic and used their speed to keep the Jackets off-balance all game. Plus the triple option is not difficult to prepare for if you are athletic and well coached.
South Carolina over Auburn - Q-Factor: Press clippings. Are the Gamecocks reading the papers? If so, they'll be hearing that this is their chance to win the SEC East. It's too early to worry about that, so if they are, they'll lose focus.
Mississippi State over Georgia - Q-Factor: Dan Mullins. In the span of a week, I've gained respect for South Carolina and lost it for Georgia. Dan Mullins was at Florida for the recent back and forth with Georgia. He knows how to beat them, let's see if he has the talent yet.
Stanford over Notre Dame - Q-Factor: Notre Dame quarterbacking. I don't care who it is, they've got to help keep the Stanford offense off the field by controlling the ball. They've yet to go a game without a turnover and have 6 in the last two.
Boise State over Oregon State - Q-Factor: Beaver defense. If they can keep for giving up scores and big plays early, the Boise crowd might get restless. They'll need a 40-point fourth quarter lead to hold off Kellen Moore, though.
LSU over West Virginia - Q-Factor: LSU crowd. The only way LSU can lose this game is if the crowd gets disinterested or taken out by some big plays. Both teams are looking to prove something and the crowd has a chance to lift the Tigers above WVU.
Alabama over Arkansas - Q-Factor: Arkansas defense. Talk all you want about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas offense. The only thing that matters is if they can get stops on the other side of the ball consistently. I don't think they can.
Nevada over BYU - Q-Factor: Colin Kappernick. Only because it's all up to him how many yards and points the Wolf Pack add up.
Oregon over Arizona State - Q-Factor: Sun Devil magic. Do they have any? They almost pulled off the huge upset in Madison last week. If it exists, they'll need it now.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 18-12 (116 pts.)
Pro Picks:
Chiefs over 49ers - Q-Factor: Arrowhead. In all seriousness, the Chiefs are playing with a lot of heart, and the best way to keep that up is to play in front of a rabid home crowd. The crowd was a huge factor in the opener, if the fans show up knowing they can help build a 3-0 start, they win. Plus, most of the Niners will think it's 10 am at kickoff, they may still be asleep.
Ravens over Browns - Q-Factor: Joe Flacco. Time to use that short memory Joe. The Browns are the perfect cure for what ails you.
Texans over Cowboys - Q-Factor: Faith. What's been the biggest knocks on the consistently average Texans? They can't beat the Colts and they are always in the Cowboys' shadows. Well, they took care of one, time to believe in the Moo Cows.
Vikings over Lions - Q-Factor: Jahvid Best. The next MJD? Maybe. But they'll need to clone him because his back will give out carrying the Lions after week five.
Patriots over Bills - Q-Factor: Tom Brady. So you sucked last week, did you? You're punishment will be to play the Bills. Wait, that's not punishment? That's a reward? Dang. It didn't used to be.
Saints over Falcons - Q-Factor: Saints defensive game plan. Can they hold the Falcons down long enough for the offense to find their rhythm. (Hey, Drew, it's week 3. Isn't time you started playing like the defending champs?)
Titans over Giants - Q-Factor: Titans o-line. The Colts ran all over the Giants because of some whacky game planning. They need to remember who is in the backfield.
Steelers over Buccaneers - Q-Factor: Reality. Time for Tampa to realize they are 2-0 against the Browns and the Panthers. Only slightly easy, that's all.
Bengals over Panthers - Q-Factor: Bengals' corners. It only took two games to realize you have a better chance of winning with Jimmy Clausen instead of Matt Moore? Really? Cincinnati picked off Joe Flacco like he was throwing Get-Out-of-Jail-Free cards, expect more of the same.
Eagles over Jaguars - Q-Factor: Jacksonville linebacking. Coached by one of the greats, they need to be ready to chase Vick all over the field. Chances of success? Slim to none.
Redskins over Rams - Q-Factor: Rams o-line. Keep Bradford upright and they've got a slim chance. The Skins may have figured out the yellow pants are ugly, but a consistent offense is still out of their grasps.
Colts over Broncos - Q-Factor: Joseph Addai. Keep running like that, man. I'll need another 20 fantasy points from you this week.
Raiders over Cardinals - Q-Factor: Jason Campbell. He needs to find his niche on this team or he'll end up like Aaron Brooks and Jamarcus Russell (two other big-armed black QBs for the Raiders), collecting unemployment.
Chargers over Seahawks - Q-Factor: Mike Tolbert. He's already out-gained Mathews, he has a chance to put the rookie on the bench, permanently.
Jets over Dolphins - Q-Factor: Which Jets' team shows up. Week one failures or week two stunners... the Dolphins are hoping for the first one.
Packers over Bears - Q-Factor: Ryan Grant. The Cowboys ran for 36 yards last week, allowing the Bears to key in on the passing game. Grant needs to get going to keep the heat off Mr. Rodgers.
Last Week: 9-7
Season 18-14
College Picks:
Boston College over Virginia Tech - Q-Factor: the Hokies' collective memory. Sure, they "redeemed" themselves after the loss to James Madison (not just one guy) by pounding ECU. But they trailed at halftime and didn't really take over until ECU starting making mistakes. If they are still thinking about the 0-2 start, they'll choke this one up.
Georgia Tech over NC State - Q-Factor: NC State's athleticism. Georgia Tech lost to kansas, who has lost to North Dakota St. and Southern Miss. How did Georgia Tech lose to kansas? The jayhawks are athletic and used their speed to keep the Jackets off-balance all game. Plus the triple option is not difficult to prepare for if you are athletic and well coached.
South Carolina over Auburn - Q-Factor: Press clippings. Are the Gamecocks reading the papers? If so, they'll be hearing that this is their chance to win the SEC East. It's too early to worry about that, so if they are, they'll lose focus.
Mississippi State over Georgia - Q-Factor: Dan Mullins. In the span of a week, I've gained respect for South Carolina and lost it for Georgia. Dan Mullins was at Florida for the recent back and forth with Georgia. He knows how to beat them, let's see if he has the talent yet.
Stanford over Notre Dame - Q-Factor: Notre Dame quarterbacking. I don't care who it is, they've got to help keep the Stanford offense off the field by controlling the ball. They've yet to go a game without a turnover and have 6 in the last two.
Boise State over Oregon State - Q-Factor: Beaver defense. If they can keep for giving up scores and big plays early, the Boise crowd might get restless. They'll need a 40-point fourth quarter lead to hold off Kellen Moore, though.
LSU over West Virginia - Q-Factor: LSU crowd. The only way LSU can lose this game is if the crowd gets disinterested or taken out by some big plays. Both teams are looking to prove something and the crowd has a chance to lift the Tigers above WVU.
Alabama over Arkansas - Q-Factor: Arkansas defense. Talk all you want about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas offense. The only thing that matters is if they can get stops on the other side of the ball consistently. I don't think they can.
Nevada over BYU - Q-Factor: Colin Kappernick. Only because it's all up to him how many yards and points the Wolf Pack add up.
Oregon over Arizona State - Q-Factor: Sun Devil magic. Do they have any? They almost pulled off the huge upset in Madison last week. If it exists, they'll need it now.
Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 18-12 (116 pts.)
Pro Picks:
Chiefs over 49ers - Q-Factor: Arrowhead. In all seriousness, the Chiefs are playing with a lot of heart, and the best way to keep that up is to play in front of a rabid home crowd. The crowd was a huge factor in the opener, if the fans show up knowing they can help build a 3-0 start, they win. Plus, most of the Niners will think it's 10 am at kickoff, they may still be asleep.
Ravens over Browns - Q-Factor: Joe Flacco. Time to use that short memory Joe. The Browns are the perfect cure for what ails you.
Texans over Cowboys - Q-Factor: Faith. What's been the biggest knocks on the consistently average Texans? They can't beat the Colts and they are always in the Cowboys' shadows. Well, they took care of one, time to believe in the Moo Cows.
Vikings over Lions - Q-Factor: Jahvid Best. The next MJD? Maybe. But they'll need to clone him because his back will give out carrying the Lions after week five.
Patriots over Bills - Q-Factor: Tom Brady. So you sucked last week, did you? You're punishment will be to play the Bills. Wait, that's not punishment? That's a reward? Dang. It didn't used to be.
Saints over Falcons - Q-Factor: Saints defensive game plan. Can they hold the Falcons down long enough for the offense to find their rhythm. (Hey, Drew, it's week 3. Isn't time you started playing like the defending champs?)
Titans over Giants - Q-Factor: Titans o-line. The Colts ran all over the Giants because of some whacky game planning. They need to remember who is in the backfield.
Steelers over Buccaneers - Q-Factor: Reality. Time for Tampa to realize they are 2-0 against the Browns and the Panthers. Only slightly easy, that's all.
Bengals over Panthers - Q-Factor: Bengals' corners. It only took two games to realize you have a better chance of winning with Jimmy Clausen instead of Matt Moore? Really? Cincinnati picked off Joe Flacco like he was throwing Get-Out-of-Jail-Free cards, expect more of the same.
Eagles over Jaguars - Q-Factor: Jacksonville linebacking. Coached by one of the greats, they need to be ready to chase Vick all over the field. Chances of success? Slim to none.
Redskins over Rams - Q-Factor: Rams o-line. Keep Bradford upright and they've got a slim chance. The Skins may have figured out the yellow pants are ugly, but a consistent offense is still out of their grasps.
Colts over Broncos - Q-Factor: Joseph Addai. Keep running like that, man. I'll need another 20 fantasy points from you this week.
Raiders over Cardinals - Q-Factor: Jason Campbell. He needs to find his niche on this team or he'll end up like Aaron Brooks and Jamarcus Russell (two other big-armed black QBs for the Raiders), collecting unemployment.
Chargers over Seahawks - Q-Factor: Mike Tolbert. He's already out-gained Mathews, he has a chance to put the rookie on the bench, permanently.
Jets over Dolphins - Q-Factor: Which Jets' team shows up. Week one failures or week two stunners... the Dolphins are hoping for the first one.
Packers over Bears - Q-Factor: Ryan Grant. The Cowboys ran for 36 yards last week, allowing the Bears to key in on the passing game. Grant needs to get going to keep the heat off Mr. Rodgers.
Last Week: 9-7
Season 18-14
Friday, September 17, 2010
100th Post - Double Duty from Denver
So, I'm in Denver this weekend for a wedding (friends of the wife) and my computer and internet access will be sparse. You're in luck, my 100th post will be a double (kinda triple) dipper. You'll get both the College and Pro picks in one blog! How excited are you!?!?!?
First, let's talk about how the Chiefs managed to beat the Chargers on Monday night. You can give credit to the weather. The rain put a damper on the speed of the Chargers on both sides of the ball. You could give credit to the fans. They showed up big time on Monday and reminded me what it used to be like to be a Chiefs fan. That place was so loud, I felt like I could hear the crowd from 115 miles away. You could say the Chargers didn't show up. They looked like they expected the Chiefs to roll over and die. If you said any of the first three, you'd be right, on some level. But I have a fourth proposal for you... the infusion of new players has changed the culture of losing in the locker room. Let me explain with some stats:
Eric Berry: 6 tackles and great shadowing of Antonio Gates all night
Dexter McCluster: 109 yards and 1 TD on just 6 touches
Javier Arenas: 1 tackle, 2 passes defended, and 119 yards returning
Tony Moeaki: 3 catches for 21 yards and 1 TD (to lead Chiefs receivers)
Now, those are the Chiefs first 4 draft picks from this year and they were prime contributors (not to mention Kendrick Lewis solid performance at safety that got no stats). Why is this important? These guys are part of a group of young talent on the team that doesn't know what it's like to lose. Look at their numbers:
Berry (Tennessee '07-'09): 22-17 in college
McCluster (Mississippi '06-'09): 25-25
Arenas (Alabama '06-'09): 39-15 (1 national championship)
Moeaki (Iowa '05-'09): 40-24
Lewis (Mississippi '06-'09): 25-25
Jamal Charles (Texas '05-'07): 33-6 (1 national championship)
Glenn Dorsey (LSU '04-'07): 43-9 (1 national championship)
Tyson Jackson (LSU '04-'08): 51- 14 (1 national championship)
Derrick Johnson (Texas '01-'04): 44-8
And that's just the beginning. Let's not forget Thomas Jones was in the AFC Championship game last year. Matt Cassel sat on the bench while USC won 2 national championships. Dwayne Bowe was on those same LSU teams as Dorsey and Jackson. The players on this team have won before, the coaching staff needs to keep the locker room positive, and the fans need to believe. I bet at no point on Monday did any of those guys think they were going to lose. That's what they need.
On to the College picks:
Much better than week one. If if wasn't for the upset in the MWC, I would have been alomst perfect.
Georgia over Arkansas... I'd be very careful of the road favorites in the SEC. Just because Georgia already lost, doesn't mean they won't defend home turf against a team that was pretty inconsistent last year.
Connecticut over Temple... great game, should be up-and-down and a preview of two postseason teams... wait, this is football. Nevermind.
Auburn over Clemson... take the Tigers in this one.
Notre Dame over Michigan State... how much do we know about the Irish at this point? Their vulnerable, but I think they've got enough talent to get by here.
Iowa over Arizona... don't sleep on the Wildcats. But they'll be losing sleep over the Hawkeyes defense this weekend.
USC over Minnesota... the Trojans are never afraid to travel to mediocre BCS teams. I'm just waiting for karma to kick Lane Kiffin in the butt.
Nebraska over Washington... it should be closer than most think. We'll find out how ready the Husker offense is for big-time games.
Wisconsin over Arizona State.... what is this Pac-10 versus Big 10 week? The Badgers should roll in this one.
Texas over Texas Tech... the Red Raiders have ONE signature win in the last couple years, Texas has championship pedigree. Who do you think wins this one?
Stanford over Wake Forest... I feel bad that Wake has to travel so far to get beat by so much.
Last Week: 8-2 (44 pts.)
Season: 12-8 (73 pts.)
On to the Pros:
If I had picked with my heart last week, I'd have gone 12-4. But no, I had to be reasonable.
Eagles over Lions... I wish Mike Vick some serious ill will, but you've got to like their chances here against a Stafford-less Lions team.
Falcons over Cardinals... one team barely lost against a good team, the other barely won against a bad team. So which team is the real loser?
Ravens over Bengals... is the Jets offense that bad or is the Ravens defense still that good? For that matter, is the Bengals defense really that bad and their offense that good?
Chiefs over Browns... it's not often the weather and the fans win games for bad teams, but I swear that was a different Chiefs team on the field Monday, they should keep playing hard.
Cowboys over Bears... I'm not sure who looked more disappointing last week, both teams should have easily won and struggled.
Packers over Bills... wow. Do I need to spend more than 15 words on this?
Titans over Steelers... I had a feeling the Steelers would be 3-1 after the first four games, here's the one.
Vikings over Dolphins... winning ugly is Favre's forte. Too bad he's good at losing ugly too.
Buccaneers over Panthers... "upset" special. The Bucs looked like they may be on to something last week, quite impressive.
Seahawks over Broncos... talk about changing my perspective on two teams so drastically in just one game, I was wrong about the NFC West being the 49ers' to lose. It's the Seahawks' to lose now.
Raiders over Rams... speaking of the NFC West, how did the Rams lose that game? The Cardinals looked terrible!
Patriots over Jets... if you can't pick up 10 yards consistently, you don't belong in the league. Even the Chiefs played better on offense than the Jets.
Chargers over Jaguars... The Jags could do some more damage to the AFC West, but I'll bet the Chargers are quite miffed about the result of Monday's game.
Redskins over Texans... here's my real upset special. Call it a let down game or pretend that the Skins are for real, either way, it's happening and there's nothing you can do about it.
Colts over Giants... remember when Manning versus Manning was more exciting on the football field than in Oreo commercials?
Saints over 49ers... wow, again. I'm totally disappointed in how Mike Singletary got out coached last week by a college coach... pretty sad. The Saints may struggle again, but the hardest thing to do in sports is defend a championship.
Last Week: 9-7 (Happily because the Chiefs won, the Cowboys, Broncos and Raiders lost)
First, let's talk about how the Chiefs managed to beat the Chargers on Monday night. You can give credit to the weather. The rain put a damper on the speed of the Chargers on both sides of the ball. You could give credit to the fans. They showed up big time on Monday and reminded me what it used to be like to be a Chiefs fan. That place was so loud, I felt like I could hear the crowd from 115 miles away. You could say the Chargers didn't show up. They looked like they expected the Chiefs to roll over and die. If you said any of the first three, you'd be right, on some level. But I have a fourth proposal for you... the infusion of new players has changed the culture of losing in the locker room. Let me explain with some stats:
Eric Berry: 6 tackles and great shadowing of Antonio Gates all night
Dexter McCluster: 109 yards and 1 TD on just 6 touches
Javier Arenas: 1 tackle, 2 passes defended, and 119 yards returning
Tony Moeaki: 3 catches for 21 yards and 1 TD (to lead Chiefs receivers)
Now, those are the Chiefs first 4 draft picks from this year and they were prime contributors (not to mention Kendrick Lewis solid performance at safety that got no stats). Why is this important? These guys are part of a group of young talent on the team that doesn't know what it's like to lose. Look at their numbers:
Berry (Tennessee '07-'09): 22-17 in college
McCluster (Mississippi '06-'09): 25-25
Arenas (Alabama '06-'09): 39-15 (1 national championship)
Moeaki (Iowa '05-'09): 40-24
Lewis (Mississippi '06-'09): 25-25
Jamal Charles (Texas '05-'07): 33-6 (1 national championship)
Glenn Dorsey (LSU '04-'07): 43-9 (1 national championship)
Tyson Jackson (LSU '04-'08): 51- 14 (1 national championship)
Derrick Johnson (Texas '01-'04): 44-8
And that's just the beginning. Let's not forget Thomas Jones was in the AFC Championship game last year. Matt Cassel sat on the bench while USC won 2 national championships. Dwayne Bowe was on those same LSU teams as Dorsey and Jackson. The players on this team have won before, the coaching staff needs to keep the locker room positive, and the fans need to believe. I bet at no point on Monday did any of those guys think they were going to lose. That's what they need.
On to the College picks:
Much better than week one. If if wasn't for the upset in the MWC, I would have been alomst perfect.
Georgia over Arkansas... I'd be very careful of the road favorites in the SEC. Just because Georgia already lost, doesn't mean they won't defend home turf against a team that was pretty inconsistent last year.
Connecticut over Temple... great game, should be up-and-down and a preview of two postseason teams... wait, this is football. Nevermind.
Auburn over Clemson... take the Tigers in this one.
Notre Dame over Michigan State... how much do we know about the Irish at this point? Their vulnerable, but I think they've got enough talent to get by here.
Iowa over Arizona... don't sleep on the Wildcats. But they'll be losing sleep over the Hawkeyes defense this weekend.
USC over Minnesota... the Trojans are never afraid to travel to mediocre BCS teams. I'm just waiting for karma to kick Lane Kiffin in the butt.
Nebraska over Washington... it should be closer than most think. We'll find out how ready the Husker offense is for big-time games.
Wisconsin over Arizona State.... what is this Pac-10 versus Big 10 week? The Badgers should roll in this one.
Texas over Texas Tech... the Red Raiders have ONE signature win in the last couple years, Texas has championship pedigree. Who do you think wins this one?
Stanford over Wake Forest... I feel bad that Wake has to travel so far to get beat by so much.
Last Week: 8-2 (44 pts.)
Season: 12-8 (73 pts.)
On to the Pros:
If I had picked with my heart last week, I'd have gone 12-4. But no, I had to be reasonable.
Eagles over Lions... I wish Mike Vick some serious ill will, but you've got to like their chances here against a Stafford-less Lions team.
Falcons over Cardinals... one team barely lost against a good team, the other barely won against a bad team. So which team is the real loser?
Ravens over Bengals... is the Jets offense that bad or is the Ravens defense still that good? For that matter, is the Bengals defense really that bad and their offense that good?
Chiefs over Browns... it's not often the weather and the fans win games for bad teams, but I swear that was a different Chiefs team on the field Monday, they should keep playing hard.
Cowboys over Bears... I'm not sure who looked more disappointing last week, both teams should have easily won and struggled.
Packers over Bills... wow. Do I need to spend more than 15 words on this?
Titans over Steelers... I had a feeling the Steelers would be 3-1 after the first four games, here's the one.
Vikings over Dolphins... winning ugly is Favre's forte. Too bad he's good at losing ugly too.
Buccaneers over Panthers... "upset" special. The Bucs looked like they may be on to something last week, quite impressive.
Seahawks over Broncos... talk about changing my perspective on two teams so drastically in just one game, I was wrong about the NFC West being the 49ers' to lose. It's the Seahawks' to lose now.
Raiders over Rams... speaking of the NFC West, how did the Rams lose that game? The Cardinals looked terrible!
Patriots over Jets... if you can't pick up 10 yards consistently, you don't belong in the league. Even the Chiefs played better on offense than the Jets.
Chargers over Jaguars... The Jags could do some more damage to the AFC West, but I'll bet the Chargers are quite miffed about the result of Monday's game.
Redskins over Texans... here's my real upset special. Call it a let down game or pretend that the Skins are for real, either way, it's happening and there's nothing you can do about it.
Colts over Giants... remember when Manning versus Manning was more exciting on the football field than in Oreo commercials?
Saints over 49ers... wow, again. I'm totally disappointed in how Mike Singletary got out coached last week by a college coach... pretty sad. The Saints may struggle again, but the hardest thing to do in sports is defend a championship.
Last Week: 9-7 (Happily because the Chiefs won, the Cowboys, Broncos and Raiders lost)
Friday, September 10, 2010
College Football Week 2
So, ESPN is dubbing this weekend "Monster Saturday." There are several huge match-ups this weekend, and many teams are playing cupcakes. We learned last week that some teams are ready to go this season (Boise State) and some teams could be in for a VERY long winter (kansas).
Seriously, let's compare the Boise State victory over Virginia Tech to the kansas loss to North Dakota State. Did you know NDSU had a football team? Did you know they are in Division I (albeit in the FCS)? Quick, without looking, what is the NDSU mascot?
Anyway, the Broncos jumped out to big lead in a hostile "neutral" stadium and kept it close enough for the game winning drive in the closing minutes. Did you see Kellen Moore's career stats when Boise is trailing? How can you ever think you've put this team away? Several of the "experts" are saying these guys can play with ANYBODY in one game in a neutral field. They are extremely aggressive defensively and they can hurt you on offense in several ways. There team is full of "dirty white boys," guys who don't know the meaning of finesse, guys who play physical and aggressive, my kind of football players.
Now, how about kansas... well, what do you say about a team that puts up 3 points on an FCS opponent at home? In all honesty, I'm rooting for Turner Gill to be successful. He's much more likeable than Mangino. They need to figure things out, especially with a top 20 BCS team coming to town this week. Good luck, chickenhawks.
On to the picks...
Hawaii over Army... the Rainbows put up a lot of yards on USC's defense, not sure Army's defense compares.
Georgia over South Carolina... it's time for the contenders to separate themselves from the pretenders.
Michigan over Notre Dame... the Wolverines proved me wrong last week (as did the Irish) so look out for this team's speed to carry the day even in bad weather.
Oklahoma over Florida State... this will be the closest game of Monster Saturday, it's really hard to go against OU's home winning streak, but look for FSU to make it VERY tough.
Oregon over Tennessee... shouldn't be easy, but Oregon's offense should put up several more yards and win easily.
Stanford over UCLA... the Bruins did not look good against K-State last week and I'm pretty sure Stanford is better than the Kittycats.
Alabama over Penn State... freshman quarterback playing on the road against the defending champs... talk about pressure. Roll tide.
Ohio State over Miami (FL)... battle of good quarterbacks and big play talent, take the home team... in fact, take them big.
BYU over Air Force... yeah, it's 9/11 but I don't think the Falcons are on the same playing field as the Cougars, could be a good game though.
Iowa over Iowa State... this is still a bit a rivalry, but the talent differential is too great for the Cyclones to have much of a chance.
Last Week: 4-6 (29 pts.)
One last thing: I hear a lot of talk this morning about how Boise State (or TCU) don't have the "body of work" to compare to the SEC/Big12/BigTen teams. Some people are saying Boise State doesn't deserve to be in the BCS Championship discussion even if they go undefeated. Here's my argument. You can't punish them for being in the WAC, just because they stand out of a group of bad teams doesn't mean they aren't the best. They play only one top 10 team this year and ten non-BCS teams. Well, preseason rankings are crap... what if the 6 top 10 teams Alabama plays fall off the dace of the earth? Is their schedule still tough?
Finally, what happens if every other team in the country loses two or more games and Boise State is still undefeated? Are they not deserving then??
Seriously, let's compare the Boise State victory over Virginia Tech to the kansas loss to North Dakota State. Did you know NDSU had a football team? Did you know they are in Division I (albeit in the FCS)? Quick, without looking, what is the NDSU mascot?
Anyway, the Broncos jumped out to big lead in a hostile "neutral" stadium and kept it close enough for the game winning drive in the closing minutes. Did you see Kellen Moore's career stats when Boise is trailing? How can you ever think you've put this team away? Several of the "experts" are saying these guys can play with ANYBODY in one game in a neutral field. They are extremely aggressive defensively and they can hurt you on offense in several ways. There team is full of "dirty white boys," guys who don't know the meaning of finesse, guys who play physical and aggressive, my kind of football players.
Now, how about kansas... well, what do you say about a team that puts up 3 points on an FCS opponent at home? In all honesty, I'm rooting for Turner Gill to be successful. He's much more likeable than Mangino. They need to figure things out, especially with a top 20 BCS team coming to town this week. Good luck, chickenhawks.
On to the picks...
Hawaii over Army... the Rainbows put up a lot of yards on USC's defense, not sure Army's defense compares.
Georgia over South Carolina... it's time for the contenders to separate themselves from the pretenders.
Michigan over Notre Dame... the Wolverines proved me wrong last week (as did the Irish) so look out for this team's speed to carry the day even in bad weather.
Oklahoma over Florida State... this will be the closest game of Monster Saturday, it's really hard to go against OU's home winning streak, but look for FSU to make it VERY tough.
Oregon over Tennessee... shouldn't be easy, but Oregon's offense should put up several more yards and win easily.
Stanford over UCLA... the Bruins did not look good against K-State last week and I'm pretty sure Stanford is better than the Kittycats.
Alabama over Penn State... freshman quarterback playing on the road against the defending champs... talk about pressure. Roll tide.
Ohio State over Miami (FL)... battle of good quarterbacks and big play talent, take the home team... in fact, take them big.
BYU over Air Force... yeah, it's 9/11 but I don't think the Falcons are on the same playing field as the Cougars, could be a good game though.
Iowa over Iowa State... this is still a bit a rivalry, but the talent differential is too great for the Cyclones to have much of a chance.
Last Week: 4-6 (29 pts.)
One last thing: I hear a lot of talk this morning about how Boise State (or TCU) don't have the "body of work" to compare to the SEC/Big12/BigTen teams. Some people are saying Boise State doesn't deserve to be in the BCS Championship discussion even if they go undefeated. Here's my argument. You can't punish them for being in the WAC, just because they stand out of a group of bad teams doesn't mean they aren't the best. They play only one top 10 team this year and ten non-BCS teams. Well, preseason rankings are crap... what if the 6 top 10 teams Alabama plays fall off the dace of the earth? Is their schedule still tough?
Finally, what happens if every other team in the country loses two or more games and Boise State is still undefeated? Are they not deserving then??
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
2010 NFL Preview and Predictions
So the season starts off tomorrow night with a rematch of the NFC title game between the Saints and Vikings, and thanks to some clever words and begging, Brett Favre is back with the Vikings. Three of his teammates convinced him to come back for another shot because it was "about the team" not himself... yeah, I'll buy that for a dollar.
I think the Packers were justified in their situation when he left them, they had a young stud in the waiting. The Jets drafted a quarterback to replace him. But the Vikings aren't confident in Tavarius Jackson so they begged Favre to come back, we'll see how this works out.
As for what I think will happen...
AFC
North: Bengals (12-4), Ravens (10-6), Steelers (9-7), Browns (2-14)
South: Colts (13-3), Titans (9-7), Texans (8-8), Jaguars (5-11)
East: Jets (11-5), Patriots (10-6), Dolphins (8-8), Bills (3-13)
West: Chargers (10-6), Broncos (8-8), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (5-11)
NFC
North: Packers (12-4), Vikings (9-7), Bears (6-10), Lions (4-12)
South: Saints (14-2), Falcons (10-6), Panthers (6-10), Buccaneers (3-13)
East: Cowboys (10-6), Eagles (9-7), Redskins (8-8), Giants (5-11)
West: 49ers (10-6), Cardinals (8-8), Seahawks (4-12), Rams (2-14)
Playoffs: Patriots over Chargers, Jets over Ravens, Cowboys over Eagles, 49ers over Falcons
Jets over Bengals, Colts over Patriots, Packers over Cowboys, Saints over 49ers
Colts over Jets, Packers over Saints
Colts over Packers
So there you have it, I think the Colts win the Super Bowl. I know, it's going out on a limb just like my Alabama pick, but I think this year will show that the NFL is going to be in big trouble without a salary cap (could be an uncapped season next year if the collective bargaining agreement is allowed to expire). The teams with the best players will be able to re-sign them in the uncapped year and not take a hit. So expect the teams that were good last year to be good this year and vice versa. Of course if major contributors leave (like Arizona losing Kurt Warner and Anquan Bolden) then the team might slip. It should be a fun year though.
Week 1 Picks
Saints over Vikings... sure, the Vikes are thinking revenge, but it's too early to expect the best from Favre. If they meet again in the playoffs, we may be looking at a different result.
Dolphins over Bills... so who do you think the Bills will take with the #1 pick next year? For this week I'll go with Tyrelle Pryor.
Bears over Lions... this should actually be a good game, the Lions are better and the Bears probably aren't, so I'll take the home team.
Titans over Raiders... the Raiders will be better with Jason Campbell, but it will be a slow start.
Patriots over Bengals... another close one, take the home team again. The Patriots will have the tougher road to the playoffs, though.
Giants over Panthers... this whole "take the home team in close early season games" is probably getting boring for you guys, huh?
Steelers over Falcons... how about, "I really like Dennis Dixon's skills and he'll lead the Steelers to as many wins as Roethlisberger does?" Don't buy it? Fine, take the home team in a close game.
Browns over Buccaneers... this is the ugliest game of the week, I guess the question is "who's the worse quarterback, Jake Delhomme or Josh Freeman?" That's like asking if you'd rather be killed with knife or a different colored knife. (Sorry, I'm watching CSI right now.)
Broncos over Jaguars... let's see how long it takes Denver to utilize Tim Tebow. I'll bet he's the starting QB after week 6 when their 3-3.
Colts over Texans... we're still a Peyton Manning retirement away from someone other than the Colts wins the AFC South.
49ers over Seahawks... this is the year the 49ers get back to the playoffs, especially because of the tailspin the Cardinals are going to take. The Seahawks are a few key 20-year-olds away from having a good college team (they've got a great college coach).
Packers over Eagles... let the corination of Aaron Rodgers begin.
Cardinals over Rams... nothing like a game against the weak Rams to avoid displaying the inevitable tailspin.
Cowboys over Redskins... Donovan McNabb had trouble beating the Cowboys when he was with the Eagles, my how times haven't changed.
Jets over Ravens... give the Jets defense and the fans some credit, they shouldn't lose the first game in their new stadium.
Chargers over Chiefs... I'd like to think my boys won't lose their first Monday night game in 2+ years at home, but these aren't the Chiefs I grew up with.
Stay tuned for College Week 2 on Friday...
I think the Packers were justified in their situation when he left them, they had a young stud in the waiting. The Jets drafted a quarterback to replace him. But the Vikings aren't confident in Tavarius Jackson so they begged Favre to come back, we'll see how this works out.
As for what I think will happen...
AFC
North: Bengals (12-4), Ravens (10-6), Steelers (9-7), Browns (2-14)
South: Colts (13-3), Titans (9-7), Texans (8-8), Jaguars (5-11)
East: Jets (11-5), Patriots (10-6), Dolphins (8-8), Bills (3-13)
West: Chargers (10-6), Broncos (8-8), Raiders (7-9), Chiefs (5-11)
NFC
North: Packers (12-4), Vikings (9-7), Bears (6-10), Lions (4-12)
South: Saints (14-2), Falcons (10-6), Panthers (6-10), Buccaneers (3-13)
East: Cowboys (10-6), Eagles (9-7), Redskins (8-8), Giants (5-11)
West: 49ers (10-6), Cardinals (8-8), Seahawks (4-12), Rams (2-14)
Playoffs: Patriots over Chargers, Jets over Ravens, Cowboys over Eagles, 49ers over Falcons
Jets over Bengals, Colts over Patriots, Packers over Cowboys, Saints over 49ers
Colts over Jets, Packers over Saints
Colts over Packers
So there you have it, I think the Colts win the Super Bowl. I know, it's going out on a limb just like my Alabama pick, but I think this year will show that the NFL is going to be in big trouble without a salary cap (could be an uncapped season next year if the collective bargaining agreement is allowed to expire). The teams with the best players will be able to re-sign them in the uncapped year and not take a hit. So expect the teams that were good last year to be good this year and vice versa. Of course if major contributors leave (like Arizona losing Kurt Warner and Anquan Bolden) then the team might slip. It should be a fun year though.
Week 1 Picks
Saints over Vikings... sure, the Vikes are thinking revenge, but it's too early to expect the best from Favre. If they meet again in the playoffs, we may be looking at a different result.
Dolphins over Bills... so who do you think the Bills will take with the #1 pick next year? For this week I'll go with Tyrelle Pryor.
Bears over Lions... this should actually be a good game, the Lions are better and the Bears probably aren't, so I'll take the home team.
Titans over Raiders... the Raiders will be better with Jason Campbell, but it will be a slow start.
Patriots over Bengals... another close one, take the home team again. The Patriots will have the tougher road to the playoffs, though.
Giants over Panthers... this whole "take the home team in close early season games" is probably getting boring for you guys, huh?
Steelers over Falcons... how about, "I really like Dennis Dixon's skills and he'll lead the Steelers to as many wins as Roethlisberger does?" Don't buy it? Fine, take the home team in a close game.
Browns over Buccaneers... this is the ugliest game of the week, I guess the question is "who's the worse quarterback, Jake Delhomme or Josh Freeman?" That's like asking if you'd rather be killed with knife or a different colored knife. (Sorry, I'm watching CSI right now.)
Broncos over Jaguars... let's see how long it takes Denver to utilize Tim Tebow. I'll bet he's the starting QB after week 6 when their 3-3.
Colts over Texans... we're still a Peyton Manning retirement away from someone other than the Colts wins the AFC South.
49ers over Seahawks... this is the year the 49ers get back to the playoffs, especially because of the tailspin the Cardinals are going to take. The Seahawks are a few key 20-year-olds away from having a good college team (they've got a great college coach).
Packers over Eagles... let the corination of Aaron Rodgers begin.
Cardinals over Rams... nothing like a game against the weak Rams to avoid displaying the inevitable tailspin.
Cowboys over Redskins... Donovan McNabb had trouble beating the Cowboys when he was with the Eagles, my how times haven't changed.
Jets over Ravens... give the Jets defense and the fans some credit, they shouldn't lose the first game in their new stadium.
Chargers over Chiefs... I'd like to think my boys won't lose their first Monday night game in 2+ years at home, but these aren't the Chiefs I grew up with.
Stay tuned for College Week 2 on Friday...
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
2010 College Football Preview and Predictions
It's the 1st of September, folks. Where's the football hoopla? We're mere hours away from the kick-off of the 2010 football season and Labor Day weekend promises to be big this year.
A quick note, this morning I watched "Mr. Nice Guy," a badly dubbed Jackie Chan movie that's just like all the others... he's a nobody who gets caught up in a gang war or drug deal and ends up having to fight hundreds of guys to stay out of trouble, then his girlfriend gets kidnapped and he has to take out revenge. They're all the same... so why did I watch it so intently? Why did I even rewind the DVR to re-watch some of the fight scenes? Because it's Jackie Chan, and it's just plain entertaining. It's the same thing with college football, it's the same story every year, but I still can't take my eyes off it.
Conference Predictions:
ACC: Coastal - Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia
Atlantic - Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, NC State
Everyone is big on FSU again, and maybe for good reason, but I can't unseat Va Tech from the favorite spot just yet, they'll win the whole thing. If they take care of Boise State, they'll be the team to beat. Look out for Miami, and Maryland will be a surprise.
Big 10: Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois
Iowa has the favorable schedule but Wisconsin and Ohio State have the returning stars. Then again, Iowa has not lost a game that Ricky Stanzi has started and finished. Michigan still won't turn it around and Penn State is dangerous.
Big East: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida, Syracuse.
Pitt has the most depth returning and they should be able to unseat Cincinnati this time. UConn is dangerous, they've been through hell and back. Louisville will turn a small corner and WVU will struggle some.
Big 12: North: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas
South: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma over Nebraska. Missouri will be lucky to win 8 games (more on that later). Texas will miss McCoy, A&M is dangerous, and Baylor will surprise. Time for Kansas to start planning for basketball season (I mean their quarterback's name is Pick, c'mon) and Oklahoma State wishes Dez Bryant hadn't met Deion Sanders.
Pac 10: Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, USC, California, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State.
The hardest conference to pick. I changed my mind at least twice on each of the top 6 teams. Lane Kiffin will understand karma quickly, Oregon's off-field issues will catch up to them, Washington will surprise, and Stanford will quietly head to the Rose Bowl with 3 losses.
SEC: East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
West: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Alabama over Florida again, like a broken record. This will be the year that people start questioning the depth of the SEC (or maybe Florida and Alabama are just THAT good). Auburn and Georgia should be tough too.
MWC: TCU, BYU, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, New Mexico
The Frogs may be headed for the National Championship but the rest of the conference will lag behind. I hate to admit it, but Christensen has Wyoming on the verge (maybe two years away).
WAC: Boise State, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State
If Boise State weren't so good, Nevada could sneak into the BCS. They'll win 10 games though and Fresno State will seriously miss Ryan Mathews.
MAC: East: Temple, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State
West: Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ball State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan
NIU over Temple. The Huskies' running back is very good.
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Western Kentucky
MTSU "dashes" to 10 wins, could be a big season for these bottom feeders.
C-USA: East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB
West: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, Tulane
Houston will run away with it. They may crash the BCS, but I bet SMU gives them a serious challenge (may even beat them).
Another note: I also watched the first half of the USA vs. Iran basketball game. I did so for two reasons:
First, I think I like this team better than the Redeem Team in '08, especially because LeBron is no longer who I thought he was... and yet here's Durant, Rose, Westbrook, Curry, and Love looking just as impressive. Seriously, Kevin Love is putting up a double-double off the bench and throwing perfect outlet passes to the Rose/Billups/Westbrook/Curry four-headed point guard who then drops a pretty dime to Durant/Iguodala/Gay for a monster dunk in transistion. Explain to me how that's any different than Howard to Williams to James. It's NBA players, but their still mostly under 22, which harkens back to the amatuer team days. It's the best "college aged" players coached by the best college coach (Coach K)... and it's working nicely. Sure the play hasn't been crisp, and if they go cold, they could actually lose, but the defense has been solid and the dunks are still there.
Second, back in the days of the Cold War, you'd watch every USA vs. USSR event for the sole purpose of waiting to see if it'd turn into a war on the court/field. The 1976 gold medal basketball game is a perfect example. Well, now that the USSR is no more, and the Taliban isn't exactly fielding Olympic teams, the US needs an enemy... and I'm sure Iran would love to oblige. I'm just waiting for a fist fight to break out, just so I can say I saw the incident that started the Iranian War (or whatever it'd be called). Fortunately, it was actually a solid sportsmanship game all around.
Back to the Predictions...
So for the BCS, here's how it will go:
Rose: Iowa over Stanford
Fiesta: Ohio State over Oklahoma
Orange: Virginia Tech over Pitt
Sugar: Florida over TCU
BCS Championship: Alabama over Boise State
I know, it's not exactly going out on a limb with the Tide rolling to a repeat, but it's common sense... they're only getting better offensively, and if you think Nick Saban will let the defense slip even a litte, you've got another thing coming.
Week 1 Pick 'Em (in order of least to most confident pick):
- Purdue over Notre Dame... you'd think any team with a Montana at quarterback can't loose. Well, this Montana has zero career attempts and 1 suspension already. The Boilermakers pull the upset and ruin Brian Kelly's crusade against the football gods.
- UConn over Michigan... and another upset, in the Big House no less. How the mighty will fall... again. This will also signal the Huskies are for reals.
- Washington over BYU... they were so close a few years ago, and any team who's coach plans on playing two quarterbacks while admitting it's not always a wise decision is doomed.
- UCLA over Kansas State... who made this schedule? I thought Bill Snyder was their coach? Since when does a Snyder-coached Wildcat team play BCS conference teams for non-conference games?
- TCU over Oregon State... week 1 is where we find out if TCU (and Boise) can stay on track to
win a BCS title. If TCU's defense has slipped too much, the Beavers should make this very interesting.
- LSU over UNC... all the off-the-field crap going on in Chapel Hill can't help them with the pressure of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff (huh? why is that pressure?)
- Louisville over Kentucky... a new coach may be all the Cards needed to get back on track.
- Missouri over Illinois... you may be wondering why this isn't my most confident pick. Well, as bad as Illinois is, I feel that for the first time in several years, the Tigers have a ton of negative off-the-field mojo. Their best running back is facing sexual assault charges, they've had a couple of key players get hit with DUIs in August, and the luster of the '07 season is completely gone. They may have missed their chance in the Big 12.
- Cincinnati over Fresno State... the Bulldogs will miss Mathews much more than the Bearcats will miss Tony Pike. In fact, put Zach Calleros on the dark-horse Heisman list for me, right now.
- Colorado over Colorado State... the Buffs may still be struggling, but they are good enough to take out a weak mid-major right now.
Well, enjoy the season. Have a wonderful Labor Day. Next week, the pros take over...
A quick note, this morning I watched "Mr. Nice Guy," a badly dubbed Jackie Chan movie that's just like all the others... he's a nobody who gets caught up in a gang war or drug deal and ends up having to fight hundreds of guys to stay out of trouble, then his girlfriend gets kidnapped and he has to take out revenge. They're all the same... so why did I watch it so intently? Why did I even rewind the DVR to re-watch some of the fight scenes? Because it's Jackie Chan, and it's just plain entertaining. It's the same thing with college football, it's the same story every year, but I still can't take my eyes off it.
Conference Predictions:
ACC: Coastal - Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia
Atlantic - Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, NC State
Everyone is big on FSU again, and maybe for good reason, but I can't unseat Va Tech from the favorite spot just yet, they'll win the whole thing. If they take care of Boise State, they'll be the team to beat. Look out for Miami, and Maryland will be a surprise.
Big 10: Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois
Iowa has the favorable schedule but Wisconsin and Ohio State have the returning stars. Then again, Iowa has not lost a game that Ricky Stanzi has started and finished. Michigan still won't turn it around and Penn State is dangerous.
Big East: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida, Syracuse.
Pitt has the most depth returning and they should be able to unseat Cincinnati this time. UConn is dangerous, they've been through hell and back. Louisville will turn a small corner and WVU will struggle some.
Big 12: North: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas
South: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma over Nebraska. Missouri will be lucky to win 8 games (more on that later). Texas will miss McCoy, A&M is dangerous, and Baylor will surprise. Time for Kansas to start planning for basketball season (I mean their quarterback's name is Pick, c'mon) and Oklahoma State wishes Dez Bryant hadn't met Deion Sanders.
Pac 10: Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, USC, California, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State.
The hardest conference to pick. I changed my mind at least twice on each of the top 6 teams. Lane Kiffin will understand karma quickly, Oregon's off-field issues will catch up to them, Washington will surprise, and Stanford will quietly head to the Rose Bowl with 3 losses.
SEC: East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
West: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Alabama over Florida again, like a broken record. This will be the year that people start questioning the depth of the SEC (or maybe Florida and Alabama are just THAT good). Auburn and Georgia should be tough too.
MWC: TCU, BYU, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, New Mexico
The Frogs may be headed for the National Championship but the rest of the conference will lag behind. I hate to admit it, but Christensen has Wyoming on the verge (maybe two years away).
WAC: Boise State, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State
If Boise State weren't so good, Nevada could sneak into the BCS. They'll win 10 games though and Fresno State will seriously miss Ryan Mathews.
MAC: East: Temple, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State
West: Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ball State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan
NIU over Temple. The Huskies' running back is very good.
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Western Kentucky
MTSU "dashes" to 10 wins, could be a big season for these bottom feeders.
C-USA: East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB
West: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, Tulane
Houston will run away with it. They may crash the BCS, but I bet SMU gives them a serious challenge (may even beat them).
Another note: I also watched the first half of the USA vs. Iran basketball game. I did so for two reasons:
First, I think I like this team better than the Redeem Team in '08, especially because LeBron is no longer who I thought he was... and yet here's Durant, Rose, Westbrook, Curry, and Love looking just as impressive. Seriously, Kevin Love is putting up a double-double off the bench and throwing perfect outlet passes to the Rose/Billups/Westbrook/Curry four-headed point guard who then drops a pretty dime to Durant/Iguodala/Gay for a monster dunk in transistion. Explain to me how that's any different than Howard to Williams to James. It's NBA players, but their still mostly under 22, which harkens back to the amatuer team days. It's the best "college aged" players coached by the best college coach (Coach K)... and it's working nicely. Sure the play hasn't been crisp, and if they go cold, they could actually lose, but the defense has been solid and the dunks are still there.
Second, back in the days of the Cold War, you'd watch every USA vs. USSR event for the sole purpose of waiting to see if it'd turn into a war on the court/field. The 1976 gold medal basketball game is a perfect example. Well, now that the USSR is no more, and the Taliban isn't exactly fielding Olympic teams, the US needs an enemy... and I'm sure Iran would love to oblige. I'm just waiting for a fist fight to break out, just so I can say I saw the incident that started the Iranian War (or whatever it'd be called). Fortunately, it was actually a solid sportsmanship game all around.
Back to the Predictions...
So for the BCS, here's how it will go:
Rose: Iowa over Stanford
Fiesta: Ohio State over Oklahoma
Orange: Virginia Tech over Pitt
Sugar: Florida over TCU
BCS Championship: Alabama over Boise State
I know, it's not exactly going out on a limb with the Tide rolling to a repeat, but it's common sense... they're only getting better offensively, and if you think Nick Saban will let the defense slip even a litte, you've got another thing coming.
Week 1 Pick 'Em (in order of least to most confident pick):
- Purdue over Notre Dame... you'd think any team with a Montana at quarterback can't loose. Well, this Montana has zero career attempts and 1 suspension already. The Boilermakers pull the upset and ruin Brian Kelly's crusade against the football gods.
- UConn over Michigan... and another upset, in the Big House no less. How the mighty will fall... again. This will also signal the Huskies are for reals.
- Washington over BYU... they were so close a few years ago, and any team who's coach plans on playing two quarterbacks while admitting it's not always a wise decision is doomed.
- UCLA over Kansas State... who made this schedule? I thought Bill Snyder was their coach? Since when does a Snyder-coached Wildcat team play BCS conference teams for non-conference games?
- TCU over Oregon State... week 1 is where we find out if TCU (and Boise) can stay on track to
win a BCS title. If TCU's defense has slipped too much, the Beavers should make this very interesting.
- LSU over UNC... all the off-the-field crap going on in Chapel Hill can't help them with the pressure of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff (huh? why is that pressure?)
- Louisville over Kentucky... a new coach may be all the Cards needed to get back on track.
- Missouri over Illinois... you may be wondering why this isn't my most confident pick. Well, as bad as Illinois is, I feel that for the first time in several years, the Tigers have a ton of negative off-the-field mojo. Their best running back is facing sexual assault charges, they've had a couple of key players get hit with DUIs in August, and the luster of the '07 season is completely gone. They may have missed their chance in the Big 12.
- Cincinnati over Fresno State... the Bulldogs will miss Mathews much more than the Bearcats will miss Tony Pike. In fact, put Zach Calleros on the dark-horse Heisman list for me, right now.
- Colorado over Colorado State... the Buffs may still be struggling, but they are good enough to take out a weak mid-major right now.
Well, enjoy the season. Have a wonderful Labor Day. Next week, the pros take over...
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