Wednesday, September 1, 2010

2010 College Football Preview and Predictions

It's the 1st of September, folks. Where's the football hoopla? We're mere hours away from the kick-off of the 2010 football season and Labor Day weekend promises to be big this year.

A quick note, this morning I watched "Mr. Nice Guy," a badly dubbed Jackie Chan movie that's just like all the others... he's a nobody who gets caught up in a gang war or drug deal and ends up having to fight hundreds of guys to stay out of trouble, then his girlfriend gets kidnapped and he has to take out revenge. They're all the same... so why did I watch it so intently? Why did I even rewind the DVR to re-watch some of the fight scenes? Because it's Jackie Chan, and it's just plain entertaining. It's the same thing with college football, it's the same story every year, but I still can't take my eyes off it.

Conference Predictions:
ACC: Coastal - Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia
Atlantic - Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, NC State
Everyone is big on FSU again, and maybe for good reason, but I can't unseat Va Tech from the favorite spot just yet, they'll win the whole thing. If they take care of Boise State, they'll be the team to beat. Look out for Miami, and Maryland will be a surprise.

Big 10: Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois
Iowa has the favorable schedule but Wisconsin and Ohio State have the returning stars. Then again, Iowa has not lost a game that Ricky Stanzi has started and finished. Michigan still won't turn it around and Penn State is dangerous.

Big East: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida, Syracuse.
Pitt has the most depth returning and they should be able to unseat Cincinnati this time. UConn is dangerous, they've been through hell and back. Louisville will turn a small corner and WVU will struggle some.

Big 12: North: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas
South: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma over Nebraska. Missouri will be lucky to win 8 games (more on that later). Texas will miss McCoy, A&M is dangerous, and Baylor will surprise. Time for Kansas to start planning for basketball season (I mean their quarterback's name is Pick, c'mon) and Oklahoma State wishes Dez Bryant hadn't met Deion Sanders.

Pac 10: Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, USC, California, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State.
The hardest conference to pick. I changed my mind at least twice on each of the top 6 teams. Lane Kiffin will understand karma quickly, Oregon's off-field issues will catch up to them, Washington will surprise, and Stanford will quietly head to the Rose Bowl with 3 losses.

SEC: East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
West: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Alabama over Florida again, like a broken record. This will be the year that people start questioning the depth of the SEC (or maybe Florida and Alabama are just THAT good). Auburn and Georgia should be tough too.

MWC: TCU, BYU, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, New Mexico
The Frogs may be headed for the National Championship but the rest of the conference will lag behind. I hate to admit it, but Christensen has Wyoming on the verge (maybe two years away).

WAC: Boise State, Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Utah State, New Mexico State
If Boise State weren't so good, Nevada could sneak into the BCS. They'll win 10 games though and Fresno State will seriously miss Ryan Mathews.

MAC: East: Temple, Ohio, Miami (OH), Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State
West: Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ball State, Toledo, Eastern Michigan
NIU over Temple. The Huskies' running back is very good.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Western Kentucky
MTSU "dashes" to 10 wins, could be a big season for these bottom feeders.

C-USA: East: Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB
West: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, Tulane
Houston will run away with it. They may crash the BCS, but I bet SMU gives them a serious challenge (may even beat them).

Another note: I also watched the first half of the USA vs. Iran basketball game. I did so for two reasons:
First, I think I like this team better than the Redeem Team in '08, especially because LeBron is no longer who I thought he was... and yet here's Durant, Rose, Westbrook, Curry, and Love looking just as impressive. Seriously, Kevin Love is putting up a double-double off the bench and throwing perfect outlet passes to the Rose/Billups/Westbrook/Curry four-headed point guard who then drops a pretty dime to Durant/Iguodala/Gay for a monster dunk in transistion. Explain to me how that's any different than Howard to Williams to James. It's NBA players, but their still mostly under 22, which harkens back to the amatuer team days. It's the best "college aged" players coached by the best college coach (Coach K)... and it's working nicely. Sure the play hasn't been crisp, and if they go cold, they could actually lose, but the defense has been solid and the dunks are still there.
Second, back in the days of the Cold War, you'd watch every USA vs. USSR event for the sole purpose of waiting to see if it'd turn into a war on the court/field. The 1976 gold medal basketball game is a perfect example. Well, now that the USSR is no more, and the Taliban isn't exactly fielding Olympic teams, the US needs an enemy... and I'm sure Iran would love to oblige. I'm just waiting for a fist fight to break out, just so I can say I saw the incident that started the Iranian War (or whatever it'd be called). Fortunately, it was actually a solid sportsmanship game all around.

Back to the Predictions...
So for the BCS, here's how it will go:
Rose: Iowa over Stanford
Fiesta: Ohio State over Oklahoma
Orange: Virginia Tech over Pitt
Sugar: Florida over TCU
BCS Championship: Alabama over Boise State
I know, it's not exactly going out on a limb with the Tide rolling to a repeat, but it's common sense... they're only getting better offensively, and if you think Nick Saban will let the defense slip even a litte, you've got another thing coming.

Week 1 Pick 'Em (in order of least to most confident pick):
- Purdue over Notre Dame... you'd think any team with a Montana at quarterback can't loose. Well, this Montana has zero career attempts and 1 suspension already. The Boilermakers pull the upset and ruin Brian Kelly's crusade against the football gods.
- UConn over Michigan... and another upset, in the Big House no less. How the mighty will fall... again. This will also signal the Huskies are for reals.
- Washington over BYU... they were so close a few years ago, and any team who's coach plans on playing two quarterbacks while admitting it's not always a wise decision is doomed.
- UCLA over Kansas State... who made this schedule? I thought Bill Snyder was their coach? Since when does a Snyder-coached Wildcat team play BCS conference teams for non-conference games?
- TCU over Oregon State... week 1 is where we find out if TCU (and Boise) can stay on track to
win a BCS title. If TCU's defense has slipped too much, the Beavers should make this very interesting.
- LSU over UNC... all the off-the-field crap going on in Chapel Hill can't help them with the pressure of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff (huh? why is that pressure?)
- Louisville over Kentucky... a new coach may be all the Cards needed to get back on track.
- Missouri over Illinois... you may be wondering why this isn't my most confident pick. Well, as bad as Illinois is, I feel that for the first time in several years, the Tigers have a ton of negative off-the-field mojo. Their best running back is facing sexual assault charges, they've had a couple of key players get hit with DUIs in August, and the luster of the '07 season is completely gone. They may have missed their chance in the Big 12.
- Cincinnati over Fresno State... the Bulldogs will miss Mathews much more than the Bearcats will miss Tony Pike. In fact, put Zach Calleros on the dark-horse Heisman list for me, right now.
- Colorado over Colorado State... the Buffs may still be struggling, but they are good enough to take out a weak mid-major right now.

Well, enjoy the season. Have a wonderful Labor Day. Next week, the pros take over...

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