Because I enjoy being a part of history (and since I'm no longer a student and have a bunch of free time), I watched the entire Game 6 of the Celtics/Cavs series. Whichever LeBron-free-agency-school-of-thought you subscribe to, it was going to be a historic game.
We all saw (and heard) about LeBron's poor performance in Game 5, not only was Cleveland's season on the line, but LeBron's reputation as an Alpha-Dog, a finisher, a dominater, was in jeopardy. If the Celtics closed out the Cavs in Boston, we'd have to put up with 40+ days of "LeBron the Free Agent" talk. It would over-shadow the rest of the playoffs, despite the fact that we are looking at 21 more playoff games. Game 6 will go down in history... I had to watch.
It was a contested game most of the way but LeBron struggled, even with help from Williams, and the Celtics looked like the better team. Instead of game analysis, let's look at it from a theory-driven perspective.
Theory #1: The pressure of the looming free-agency decision got to LeBron too early. Honestly, it was going to get to him sometime. Even though I picked them to win it all, I figured the "too much pressure" game(s) would have been sporadic and covered by a solid supporting cast. Instead of conjecturing that he had already decided to stay or go, this theory believes LeBron is a good person, but rational. It wouldn't be about the money, it'd be about which team was going to get him a ring. The knowledge that Cleveland would offer him the max deal to stay (NBA Champs or not) but other teams may be more competitive down the road was weighing on him. He didn't want to think about shunning his home state AND the money for another team, that's not him. Too much pressure for a 25-year-old with no college education, that's all it is.
Theory #2: Without LeBron, the Cavaliers are a sub-.500 team. No NBA super-star can carry a team for 82 games AND the 16+ playoff games required to win a NBA title. A supporting cast, a HIGH QUALITY supporting cast, is necessary. Kobe NEEDS Gasol and Odom. Jordan NEEDED Pipped and Grant. Magic NEEDED Kareem and Worthy. Bird NEEDED Parish and McHale. Every so often, a super-star is going to go 4-for-23 and the rest of his team NEEDS to help him out. Those last six guys are all Hall of Famers and were champions in their prime, but only three of them were Alpha-Dogs. Who on this Cleveland team is going to the Hall of Fame (Shaq doesn't count because he's a shadow of his Hall-worthy self)?
Theory #3: LeBron is leaving and he tanked it intentionally. He'd already made up his mind. Whether it be the Knicks, Bulls, or Clippers... he's gone. He's too worried about his reputation as a good guy to win a championship and jump ship. No one does that, it's too mean/selfish. The elbow injury is a cover for his poor play. How else would you explain the lack of touches on meaningful possessions and all the jump shots he took? I'm not saying he made up his mind months ago to bow out in a 6-game second round series... if he planned it, he would have gone to the very last game (could have blamed it on the Cleveland curse if he'd lost to Kobe's Lakers in a 7-game Finals). When Rondo put together such a fantastic Game 4, and the Celtics were pulling away in Game 5, LeBron decided to "tank" Game 6 and not risk any more injury or disaster.
Theory #4: LeBron is leaving and the rest of the organization knows it. His mind is made up and his poor play is showing it, but the real conspiracy comes from the personnel decisions, coaching, and poor support on the court. Is Mo Williams THAT bad defensively? Is Mike Brown THAT bad of a coach? Is Shaq actually dead? Does the GM not know how much money they could have spent on someone better than Antwuan Jamison?
Theory #5: The Celtics are just better. Hell, the same team ousted Cleveland's run two years ago on their way to the title. They had seemed old and brittle during the season, but these guys are gamers... Pierce, Allen, and Garnett got a taste of glory and they want more. Rondo is the most underrated player in the league... maybe ever. Doc Rivers is a solid coach who makes slight game adjustments but doesn't panic like Brown. They were unimpressive earlier because of their division... seriously, all 8 Western playoff teams would have won the Atlantic, and 4 more teams would have finished third or better (including the Clippers and Grizzlies). They were the better team.
Theory #6: LeBron is staying and the team still isn't ready. Even Jordan lost playoff series when his team couldn't help him (of course Jordan won it all in his 7th season). They needed another early exit so the chips would fall in the right places next season.
Theory #7: It does not matter where he plays, LeBron is not going to be a champion. Is there grounds for this argument? Of course. It may be a stretch, but look at all the high school players drafted into the NBA. Seriously, it's a laundry list of failure. Of the 4 guys I counted that have NBA titles, Garnett and Perkins won ONE with the Celtics in '08, Moses Malone won ONE with the Sixers in '83, and Kobe has his four. Garnett and Perkins have Pierce, Allen, and Rondo so neither of them is expected to carry the team. Malone had a solid team of Dr. J, Maurice Cheeks, and Andrew Toney. Kobe had Shaq for three and Gasol/Odom last year. I know, most NBA champs are TEAMS, but considering that in the 30 years of high schoolers jumping to the draft, only 4 have titles (and only 2 of those could be called "Alpha-Dogs"), I don't think history is on LeBron's side.
What needs to happen (if you want LeBron to be a champion)? He needs to be in a situation like the Celtics have going now. He needs 4 All-NBA-caliber teammates and a decent coach. He needs to be able to cruise through the regular season (go back to non-MVP-like performances) and turn it on in playoffs. Whether he joins an existing competitor or brings in players to Cleveland, he has to make a change.
He could go to Milwaukee and team with Jennings, Salmons and Bogut. Or go to Orlando and tkck Vince Carter to the curb. Teaming with Davis, Gordon, Kaman and Griffin on the Clippers could work. He could bring some rebounding and defense to Golden State. Somewhere where he will be the Alpha-Dog, but the team won't depend on his best game EVERY night.
Even better, he could convince his Redeem Team buddies (Wade and Bosh) to play together for less money... preferably in Cleveland.
I know the answer will not be for a team that intentionally dismantled their team to bring him in.
Either way, LeBron probably played his last game with the Cavs.
