Guts Versus Brains: The Internal Struggle

As someone who struggles with his weight, I can tell you that the only time my brain and my guts are on the same page is when I see free food... and when picking against the Royals.

That being said, this year I chose to have one bracket with my gut-decision picks ("eye test") and one with a statistical comparision/analysis. Here are my picks for the ENTIRE bracket going region by region:

Midwest Guts:
Liberty over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over Liberty, Colorado State over Missouri, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Middle Tennesse over Memphis, Michigan State over Valparaiso, Cincinnati over Creighton, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over St. Louis, Michigan State over Middle Tennessee, Duke over Cincinnati
Louisville over Oklahoma State, Michigan State over Duke
Louisville over Duke

Midwest Brains:
North Carolina A&T over Liberty, Middle Tennessee over St. Mary's
Louisville over North Carolina A&T, Missouri over Colorado State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, St. Louis over New Mexico State, Memphis over Middle Tennessee, Valparaiso over Michigan State, Creighton over Cincinnati, Duke over Albany
Louisville over Missouri, St. Louis over Oklahoma State, Memphis over Valparaiso, Duke over Creighton
Louisville over St. Louis, Memphis over Duke
Memphis over Louisville

West Guts:
La Salle over Boise State
Gonzaga over Southern, Wichita State over Pittsburgh, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over La Salle, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Wichita State, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State

West Brains:
Boise State over La Salle
Gonzaga over Southern, Pittsburgh over Wichita State, Wisconsin over Mississippi, Kansas State over Boise State, Belmont over Arizona, New Mexico over Harvard, Notre Dame over Iowa State, Ohio State over Iona
Gonzaga over Pittsburgh, Kansas State over Wisconsin, New Mexico over Belmont, Ohio State over Notre Dame
Gonzaga over Kansas State, Ohio State over New Mexico
Gonzaga over Ohio State

South Guts:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, VCU over Akron, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State over Oklahoma, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, VCU over Michigan, Florida over Michigan, Georgetown over San Diego State
VCU over Kansas, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over VCU

South Brains:
Kansas over Western Kentucky, North Carolina over Villanova, Akron over VCU, Michigan over South Dakota State, Minnesota over UCLA, Florida over Northwestern State, San Diego State, Georgetown over Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas over North Carolina, Michigan over Akron, Florida over Minnesota, Georgetown over San Diego State
Kansas over Michigan, Florida over Georgetown
Florida over Kansas

East Guts:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, NC State over Temple, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Butler over Bucknell, Davidson over Marquette, Colorado over Illinois, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over NC State, UNLV over Montana, Butler over Davidson, Miami (FL) over Colorado
Indiana over UNLV, Miami (FL) over Butler
Indiana over Miami (FL)

East Brains:
Long Island over James Madison
Indiana over Long Island, Temple over NC State, UNLV over California, Montana over Syracuse, Bucknell over Butler, Marquette over Davidson, Illinois over Colorado, Miami (FL) over Pacific
Indiana over Temple, Montana over UNLV, Bucknell over Marquette, Miami (FL) over Illinois
Indiana over Montana, Bucknell over Miami (FL)
Indiana over Bucknell

Final Four Guts:
Louisville over Gonzaga, Indiana over Florida
Indiana over Louisville

Final Four Brains:
Gonzaga over Memphis, Indiana over Florida
Gonzaga over Indiana

Why is it called the First Four?

Some people have been calling the first round of the NCAA Tournament the "First Four" (or maybe they don't, but it's in my head anyway). If the Final Four refers to the last 4 teams left, should the first round be the First Eight?

Moving on...

I'm working on my brackets for the actual tournament draw (blog coming tomorrow or Thursday), but here is what the bracket would have looked like if I were running the show (no regional pods or conference concerns):

1: Louisville vs. 16: Southern or Liberty
2: Michigan State vs. 15: Northwestern State
3: New Mexico vs. 14: Iona
4: St. Louis vs. 13: New Mexico State
5: Michigan vs. 12: Valparaiso
6: UCLA vs. 11: Boise State
7: San Diego State vs. 10: Villanova
8: Illinois vs. 9: Notre Dame

1: Duke vs. 16: Long Island or North Carolina A&T
2: Florida vs. 15: Florida Gulf Coast
3: Syracuse vs. 14: Harvard
4: Arizona vs. 13: Bucknell
5: North Carolina vs. 12: Oregon
6: Minnesota vs. 11: Cincinnati
7: Memphis vs. 10: Wichita State
8: Creighton vs. 9: NC State

1: Indiana vs. 16: James Madison
2: Miami (FL) vs. 15: Montana
3: Gonzaga vs. 14: Pacific
4: Wisconsin vs. 13: Akron
5: Oklahoma State vs. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: Pittsburgh vs. 11: Southern Miss
7: UNLV vs. 10: Belmont
8: Butler vs. 9: Colorado

1: Ohio State vs. 16: Albany
2: Kansas vs. 15: Western Kentucky
3: Georgetown vs. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette vs. 13: Davidson
5: Kansas State vs. 12: Iowa State or California
6: VCU vs. 11: Mississippi
7: Colorado State vs. 10: Oklahoma
8: Missouri vs. 9: St. Mary's

Last 4 In: Iowa State, Middle Tennessee, California, La Salle

First 4 Out: Kentucky, Temple, Tennessee, Alabama

Next 8 Out (I considered 8 extra teams just to see how close it was): Denver, Massachusetts, BYU, Florida State, Detroit, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Stephen F Austin

Basically, my bracket is all the same teams (minus Temple, plus Southern Miss) and in a slightly difference seeding order.

I'm working on two brackets; one picking from the gut, the other picking with the stats. But with the "First Four" starting tonight, here are the picks for the first round games:

Middle Tennesse vs. St. Mary's - gut and brains agree that Middle Tennesse will prove it belongs with tough defense.

Boise State vs. La Salle - the stats lean slightly to a bigger, slightly more efficient Boise team, but my gut says La Salle's strengths will be stronger.

Long Island vs. James Madison - Long Island is going to run and JMU doesn't have a stout enough defense, the stats and brain agree.

North Carolina A&T vs. Liberty - the Flames are just glad to still be playing, my gut says they ride the hot streak, but the numbers favor NC A&T.

Things Went Down on Thurday

With no real changes from Tuesday and Wednesday's action (I crunched the numbers both days and no one moved in or out), I though about not checking today. I'm glad I did! When the top four seeds fail to lose a game in a conference tournament stuff gets crazy. Even thought the carnage of the MEAC bracket didn't affect those teams on the bubble, it lends evidence to how intense Thursday's games were.

I didn't think there'd be much but I did notice some slight changes, so here you go: (Auto-bids in bold)

1: Duke v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Kansas v. 15: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
3: Georgetown v. 14: Long Beach State
4: Oklahoma State v. 13: Valparaiso
5: North Carolina v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Villanova
7: St. Louis v. 10: Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: St. Mary's

1: Indiana v. 16: Long Island (NEC) or Morgan State
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F. Austin
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Michigan v. 13: New Mexico State
5: Wisconsin v. 12: Middle Tennessee or La Salle
6: San Diego State v. 11: Boise State
7: Missouri v. 10: NC State
8: Memphis v. 9: Notre Dame

1: Louisville v. 16: James Madison (Colonial)
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Syracuse v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell (Patriot)
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Temple or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Colorado State v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Creighton (MVC) v. 9: Kentucky

1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State (Summit)
4: Marquette v. 13: Davidson (SoCon)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Iowa State
6: VCU v. 11: California
7: Illinois v. 10: Oklahoma
8: UNLV v. 9: Colorado

Last 4 In:
Temple
Middle Tennessee
La Salle
Southern Miss

First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana Tech

Sometimes Things Can Change in a Day, Right?

Okay, so with a few more bids secured last night, here is my updated bracket: (automatic bids in Bold)

1: Duke v. 16: Norfolk State or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Gonzaga (WCC) v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Wichita State
7: San Diego State v. 10: Villanova
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma

1: Indiana v. 16: James Madison (Colonial) or Southern
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Syracuse v. 14: Iona (MAAC)
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: UCLA v. 11: California
7: St. Louis v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: St. Mary's

1: Louisville v. 16: Long Island
2: Ohio State v. 15: Vermont
3: Georgetown v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson (Southern)
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: Colorado State v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Belmont (OVC)
8: Memphis v. 9: Colorado

1: Michigan State v. 16: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
2: Florida v. 15: Montana
3: New Mexico v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Marquette v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Missouri v. 9: Kentucky

Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss

First 4 Out
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi
Tennessee

I know I've got a few conference games, but the basic idea is where teams fall as far as deserved seeding based on my criteria. The biggest thing is Middle Tennessee being 5 team above the cut line with Western Kentucky taking the Sun Belt auto-bid. Can they hold on?
Denver (a new team this week) is the first team out, but scores higher than WAC counterpart Louisiana Tech. I have Tech in because they are the top seed in the tournament, so this could change at any moment.

It's Crazyness! (Because Madness is Overdone)

Before we get to my updated rankings for today, allow me a moment to rant on the Missouri Tigers and their situation.
A week ago the Tigers were tied with Mississippi for 4th place in the SEC. They were still alive for the 2-seed in the SEC tournament, but they needed to beat Arkansas and Tennessee, have Kentucky lose to Georgia AND Florida, and have the winner of the Alabama vs. Mississippi game lose their Saturday game. A lot to ask for, but possible.
On Saturday morning, all the chips were in place. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky lost to Georgia, Mississippi beat Alabama (they were playing at LSU, while Alabama was home for Georgia). This had created a 4-way tie for second place. Then, in the span of an hour, the shit hit the fan. Florida failed to score ANYTHING in the final 7:30 and let Kentucky come back to win. Alabama hit a half-court buzzer beater to beat Georgia. Mississippi handled LSU. And finally, Phil Pressey hoisted the most ill-advised 3-pointer EVER (like in all the history of basketball EVER), causing the Tigers to fall into a tie with Tennessee for 5th place... which Tennessee then owned the tie-break.
Why was Pressey's shot so bad? The Tigers were down 3. They had 2 timeouts left. They had 17 seconds left. He (nor most of his teammates) hadn't made one all game. They had 2 timeouts left. There is ABSOLUTELY NO BASKETBALL LOGIC BEHIND HIS DECISION. Sure, if it goes in, great... but then Tennessee had 12 seconds and a timeout to win it.
Half the blame could go to coach Haith... he could have called timeout. But most of it goes on Pressey. I'd be apologizing for him all season; defending him after the Kentucky loss when my wife was sick of him; blaming the defense for the loss to A&M; citing poor coaching for the loss to UCLA; missing Lawrence Bowers against LSU; and roasting the officiating against Arkansas. I can't do that anymore. This one's on him. Not just the bad shot, but he had three or four defensive lapses in the second half and I don't think he got the the free throw line once. If you want to take the last shot, run a play for yourself, use some clock and get a screen. The better no-timeout, no-play, too quick decision would have been to just drive at the basket, maybe get 3 the old-fashioned way. Nothing about his shot makes any sense to anyone that knows basketball... worst of all, he airballed it.

Okay, on with the rankings (bold teams have clinched an automatic bid):

1: Indiana v. 16: Southern or Liberty (Big South)
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Syracuse v. 14: Florida-Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
4: North Carolina v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Oklahoma State v. 12: Akron
6: Kansas State v. 11: Colorado
7: UCLA v. 10 Wichita State
8: Butler v. 9: Oklahoma

1: Duke v. 16: Long Island or Norfolk State
2: Kansas v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Georgetown v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Arizona v. 13: Bucknell
5: Wisconsin v. 12: La Salle or Southern Miss
6: Colorado State v. 11: California
7: San Diego State v. 10: NC State
8: Illinois v. 9: Kentucky

1: Louisville v. 16: Northeastern
2: Ohio State v. 15: Florida International
3: New Mexico v. 14: Iona
4: Gonzaga v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: Minnesota v. 12: Temple or Iowa State
6: St. Louis v. 11: Boise State
7: UNLV v. 10: Villanova
8: Memphis v. 9: Belmont (OVC)

1: Michigan State v. 16: Montana
2: Florida v. 15: Vermont
3: Marquette v. 14: Harvard (Ivy)
4: Michigan v. 13: Davidson
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Middle Tennessee
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: Creighton (MVC) v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Missouri v. 9: Notre Dame

Last 4 In:
Temple
La Salle
Iowa State
Southern Miss

First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Denver
Oregon
Mississippi

Bids Handed Out Tonight:
Colonial (Northeastern v. James Madison)
Southern (Davidson v. Charleston)
Sun Belt (Florida International v. Western Kentucky)
MAAC (Iona v. Manhattan)
WCC (Gonzaga v. St. Mary's)

March Madness Has Begun!

Gonzaga is #1. Conference leads are changing hands (Texas Southern, Mercer, Princeton, St. Louis, and Creighton are now in place for auto-bids). And we've started discuss what loses are worse than others. (Honestly, no loss is a good loss, but the worst one this year HAS to be kansas losing to TCU)

On to the seedings...

1: Duke v. 16: Texas Southern or Charleston Southern
2: Syracuse v. 15: Long Beach State
3: Ohio State v. 14: South Dakota State
4: Georgetown v. 13: Akron
5: Arizona v. 12: Virginia or Southern Miss
6: St. Louis v. 11: Middle Tennessee
7: Oklahoma v. 10: Notre Dame
8: Colorado v. 9: Missouri

1: Indiana v. 16: Northeastern or Norfolk State
2: Michigan State v. 15: Niagara
3: Gonzaga v. 14: Stony Brook
4: Wisconsin v. 13: Bucknell
5: Pittsburgh v. 12: Boise State or La Salle
6: UNLV v. 11: Kentucky
7: UCLA v. 10: St. Mary's
8: Connecticut v. 9: NC State

1: Louisville v. 16: Montana
2: Miami (FL) v. 15: Stephen F Austin
3: Michigan v. 14: Princeton
4: Minnesota v. 13: Louisiana Tech
5: North Carolina v. 12: Villanova
6: VCU v. 11: Cincinnati
7: San Diego State v. 10: Creighton
8: Memphis v. 9: California

1: Kansas v. 16: Mercer
2: Florida v. 15: Robert Morris
3: New Mexico v. 14: Davidson
4: Marquette v. 13: Valparaiso
5: Kansas State v. 12: Oregon
6: Oklahoma State v. 11: Wichita State
7: Illinois v. 10: Belmont
8: Colorado State v. 9: Butler

Last 4 In:
Boise State
Virginia
Southern Miss
La Salle

First 4 Out:
Tennessee
Temple
Iowa State
Massachusetts