Down to the Wire (For Some)

So we know this... The AFC road goes through Boston; the Jets, Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens are in; the Eagles are the #3 in the NFC; the NFC #4 will have less than 9 wins; and the Panthers are on the clock.
A nice little twist this week, every game is on Sunday, and they are all divisional games. That's pretty good way to make sure some games really matter in Week 17.

Falcons over Panthers
Steelers over Browns
Lions over Vikings
Chiefs over Raiders
Patriots over Dolphins
Ravens over Bengals
Saints over Buccaneers
Jets over Bills
Packers over Bears
Colts over Titans
Giants over Redskins
Jaguars over Texans
Cowboys over Eagles
49ers over Cardinals
Broncos over Chargers
Seahawks over Rams

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 145-95

Week 16: aka, the Push

Time for teams to get their shit together and start playing like they deserve to be in the playoffs. Let's run through the picks...

Let’s start with the games that don’t matter:

Steelers over Panthers… they’re already in, they’re at home, and their opponent is playing for the rights to Andrew Luck. I expect a boring, methodical bitch-slapping.

Cowboys over Cardinals… ah, an old NFC East rivalry. I bet the Cards are glad to be out of that division and in one where all you need is 8 wins to make the playoffs. Can someone please rescue Larry Fitzgerald? He’s dying out there!

Lions over Dolphins… earlier in the season this would have been harder to pick. Lions are bad on the road, Dolphins are bad at home, and the whole Chad Pennington vs. Drew Stanton debate. Can someone please rescue Calvin Johnson? He’s dying out there!

Patriots over Bills… what’s the over/under on points here? 75? 95??? Can I take the over no matter what?

Texans over Broncos… I was going to lean on the Broncos’ passing tearing through the Texans’ secondary, but Tebow is too much of wild card. It appears the Broncos have quit, while the Texans legitimately look to be fighting to keep their mediocre coach.

Moving on to the games that matter for one team:

Jaguars over Redskins… rule # 115b of picking NFL games: NEVER back a QB nicknamed “Sexy Rexy.”

Chiefs over Titans… rule #7 of picking NFL games: ALWAYS pick the home team with a desperate fan-base that can smell the playoffs and has already swung 2 or 3 games this year.

Ravens over Browns… if the Ravens had clinched, or were out of contention, I’d lean towards the sneaky Browns. But they’ve had their big upset… at least they can look forward to the Cavaliers season. Oh, wait… my bad.

Chargers over Bengals… what a lousy break for the Chiefs. They’re one game ahead and the Chargers are playing teams that are a combined 6-22. At least they’re on the road for both.

Eagles over Vikings… has Mike Vick repaid his debt and realigned his karma? I’m not sure what it would take for most people to forgive and forget. Personally, I’m hoping he gets his throwing hand bitten off by a Chihuahua.

And finally, the games that matter for both teams:

Rams over 49ers… despite looking lost last week for half the game, the Rams are probably the best all-around team in the NFC West… which is like saying “look out for Florida International, they are the most balanced team in the Sun Belt.”

Bears over Jets… the Bears are playing for a first-round bye, the Jets are too inconsistent offensively… take the home team.

Colts over Raiders… rule #707d for picking football games: if Peyton Manning has a chance to make the playoffs, he will. Also, tough break for the Raiders… they could go 6-0 in the AFC West and not win it.

Packers over Giants… they almost beat the Patriots without Aaron Rodgers, and they are the only offense that doesn’t become one-dimensional in the freezing cold.

Buccaneers over Seahawks… Seattle’s hopes are a long shot, but the game still does matter. I see this game as laying the ground work for a Tampa resurgence, but I don’t think it will involve Josh Freeman.

Falcons over Saints… so many picking rules over lapping: Matt Ryan is like 20-1 at home; never count out the defending champs; pick the better running game; pick the better coach; pick the team that lost the previous match-up; never pick against a team starting two guys from your alma mater… let’s just say I wouldn’t bet ANY money on either team, not matter what the spread may be.

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 135-89

Bowl Bonaza

Before we get to the bowl picks, here are this week's NFL Picks:

Chargers over 49ers
Browns over Bengals
Cowboys over Redskins
Texans over Titans
Colts over Jaguars
Rams over Chiefs
Dolphins over Bills
Buccaneers over Lions
Cardinals over Panthers
Ravens over Saints
Eagles over Giants
Falcons over Seahawks
Steelers over Jets
Raiders over Broncos
Patriots over Packers
Bears over Vikings

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 126-82

On to Bowl Season... picking with me once again is my wonderful wife Katie (her picks will be in purple):
New Mexico: BYU over UTEP
Humanitarian: Fresno State over Northern Illinois
New Orleans: Ohio over Troy
St. Petersburg: Southern Miss over Louisville
Las Vegas: Boise State over Utah
Poinsettia: San Diego State over Navy
Hawai'i: Hawai'i over Tulsa
Little Caesars: Toledo over FIU
Independence: Georgia Tech over Air Force
Champs Sports: NC State over West Virginia
Insight: Iowa over Missouri
Military: Maryland over East Carolina
Texas: Illinois over Baylor
Alamo: Oklahoma State over Arizona
Armed Forces: SMU over Army
Pinstripe: Syracuse over Kansas State
Music City: North Carolina over Tennessee
Holiday: Nebraska over Washington
Meineke Car Care: South Florida over Clemson
Sun: Notre Dame over Miami-FL
Liberty: Central Florida over Georgia
Chick-fil-A: Florida State over South Carolina
TicketCity: Texas Tech over Northwestern
Outback: Penn State over Florida
Capital One: Alabama over Michigan State
Gator: Mississippi State over Michigan
Rose: TCU over Wisconsin
Fiesta: Oklahoma over Connecticut
Orange: Stanford over Virginia Tech
Sugar: Ohio State over Arkansas
GoDaddy.com: Miami-OH over Middle Tennessee State
Cotton: LSU over Texas A&M
BBVA Compass: Kentucky over Pittsburgh
Kraft Fight Hunger: Nevada over Boston College
BCS Championship: Auburn over Oregon

Days of Reckoning

So the BCS is set and TCU is getting screwed. A second straight undefeated season and they won't have a chance to be declared National Champions. Well, let's look at how I would have done it...

Final Rankings:
1: Auburn (13-0)
2: Oregon (12-0)
3: Texas Christian (12-0)
4: Nevada (12-1)
5: Stanford (11-1)
6: Ohio State (11-1)
7: Wisconsin (11-1)
8: Michigan State (11-1)
9: Boise State (11-1)
10: Oklahoma (11-2)
11: Virginia Tech (11-2)
12: Arkansas (10-2)
13: Louisiana State (10-2)
14: Missouri (10-2)
15: Oklahoma State (10-2)
16: Utah (10-2)
17: Nebraska (10-3)
18: Hawaii (10-3)
19: Central Florida (10-3)
20: Northern Illinois (10-3)
21: Alabama (9-3)
22: Texas A&M (9-3)
23: West Virginia (9-3)
24: Tulsa (9-3)

Also receiving "votes:" South Carolina (9-4), Florida State (9-4), Miami OH (9-4), Navy (8-3), Mississippi State (8-4), North Carolina State (8-4), Maryland (8-4), Connecticut (8-4), San Diego State (8-4), Air Force (8-4), Fresno State (8-4), Notre Dame (7-5), Arizona (7-5), Iowa (7-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), South Florida (7-5).

So here is how a 16-team tournament with the conference champs and the five best at-large teams:
#1 Auburn (SEC) vs. #16 Florida International (Sun Belt)
#2 Oregon (Pac-10) vs. #15 Connecticut (Big East)
#3 Texas Christian (MWC) vs. #14 Miami OH (MAC)
#4 Nevada (WAC) vs. #13 Central Florida (C-USA)
#5 Stanford (At-large) vs. #12 Arkansas (At-large)
#6 Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (ACC)
#7 Wisconsin (At-large) vs. #10 Oklahoma (Big 12)
#8 Michigan State (At-large) vs. #9 Boise State (At-large)

Next Week... Bowl Picks

NFL Week 14:
Colts over Titans
Browns over Bills
Packers over Lions
Giants over Vikings
Steelers over Bengals
Buccaneers over Redskins
Falcons over Panthers
Jaguars over Raiders
Seahawks over 49ers
Saints over Rams
Patriots over Bears
Jets over Dolphins
Broncos over Cardinals
Chargers over Chiefs
Eagles over Cowboys
Ravens over Texans

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 115-77

Well, There Goes Boise

We're one more loss away from avoiding a BCS controversy... those looking to avoid my bitching better root for Oregon State or South Carolina this weekend. Here are my rankings:

1: Auburn (12-0)
2: Texas Christian (12-0)
3: Oregon (11-0)
4: Stanford (11-1)
5: Ohio State (11-1)
6: Wisconsin (11-1)
7: Michigan State (11-1)
8: Nevada (11-1)
9: Boise State (10-1)
10: Oklahoma (10-2)
11: Arkansas (10-2)
12: Louisiana State (10-2)
13: Missouri (10-2)
14: Nebraska (10-2)
15: Oklahoma State (10-2)
16: Virginia Tech (10-2)
17: Utah (10-2)
18: Northern Illinois (10-2)
19: Alabama (9-3)
20: South Carolina (9-3)
21: Texas A&M (9-3)
22: Florida State (9-3)
23: Hawaii (9-3)
24: Tulsa (9-3)
24: Central Florida (9-3)

Also receiving "votes:" West Virginia (8-3), Navy (8-3), Mississippi State (8-4), Maryland (8-4), North Carolina State (8-4), Air Force (8-4), San Diego State (8-4), Miami-OH (8-4), Ohio (8-4).

Honorable Mention: Toledo (8-4), Temple (8-4), Southern Miss (8-4)

Picks:
#20 South Carolina over #1 Auburn
Washington over Washington State
Southern Cal over UCLA
Connecticut over South Florida
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
#24 Central Florida over Southern Methodist
West Virginia over Rutgers
#10 Oklahoma over #14 Nebraska
#16 Virginia Tech over #22 Florida State
#3 Oregon over Oregon State

Last Week: 8-2 (38 pts)
Season: 77-53 (471 pts)

NFL Picks:
Eagles over Texas
Saints over Bengals
Bears over Lions
Packers over 49ers
Jaguars over Titans
Chiefs over Broncos
Browns over Dolphins
Vikings over Bills
Giants over Redskins
Chargers over Raiders
Falcons over Buccaneers
Seahawks over Panthers
Rams over Cardinals
Colts over Cowboys
Ravens over Steelers
Patriots over Jets

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 102-74