Colts over Jaguars... REST YOUR STARTERS, please. No matter what the score, take them out by the fourth quarter, you'll be better off come playoff time.
Saints over Cowboys... Is it December? Yes. Am I picking against the Cowboys? Yes.
Chiefs over Browns... The Chiefs are truly the better team, I mean they both beat the Steelers, but KC looked better doing it.
Patriots over Bills... Patriots are in danger of losing their division lead, but I don't think the Bills are the team to take them down.
Cardinals over Lions... The Lions are going to need 10 Cardinal turnovers to pull this one out.
Titans over Dolphins... Here's the upset special. I don't buy the Dolphins are better without the Wildcat. I think Tennessee's problems were more than Kerry Collins... and I think they are fixed even with him under center.
Texans over Rams... Fortunately for the Titans, they travel to STL for the Rams. Unfortunately, they're still an 8-8 also-ran to the Colts.
Jets over Falcons... Almost didn't cut it last week for the Falcons, and I think a Sanchez-less Jets are a decent (possibly playoff) team.
Eagles over 49ers... The Eagles look pretty complete, the Niners were handed the game last week. Don't expect 7 turnovers from Philly. (At least one half of my NFC title game pick is looking good.)
Ravens over Bears... Battle of the underachievers goes to the Ravens. Some day Joe Flacco will win a Super Bowl, probably not with the Ravens.
Chargers over Bengals... R.I.P. Chris Henry. Unfortunately, I don't see the Bengals rallying around a guy like him. His production will be sorely missed, but not his attitude. Also, the Chargers are the anti-Cowboys, they don't lose in December.
Broncos over Raiders... I would have give the Silver and Black a chance with Bruce Gradkowski, but they probably won't score 10 with Russell back. (Over-Under on Brandon Marshall catches this week? Whatever it is, take the under, Raiders have good cover corners.)
Seahawks over Buccaneers... Almost took the upset, but I don't think Seattle's a big enough team for Josh Freeman to pull a "I'm terrible but I can win when I'm given zero chance against a power team."
Vikings over Panthers... If you are Brad Childress, do you rest Brett after a quarter? I mean he is one good hit to the head away from retirement. (Or another fake retirement.)
Giants over Redskins... By Monday morning the Giants will be 1/2 game behind the Cowboys. I think that's motivation enough to destroy their rivals on the big stage and retake control of the six seed.
Last Week: 13-3
Season: 142-66
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Thursday, December 10, 2009
NFL Power Ranks and Week 14 Picks
With only four weeks left in the season, I thought I'd break down the teams in a power ranking way (from the bottom up):
Septic Tankers:
32: Browns (1-11) - You have to wonder if they'd have just settled on Quinn from the beginning, maybe they'd be a more respectable 1-11... maybe 2-10... at least ahead of the Rams.
31: Rams (1-11) - Proof positive that an elite running back is only one piece of the puzzle.
Bad with a Hint of Promise:
30: Buccaneers (1-11) - At least they've settled on a quarterback and are working in some young talent, they only need a couple wily veteran free agents and they'll be better than the Panthers.
29: Chiefs (3-9) - Only in this spot because of their coach is okay with losing, despite the volume of his voice. They were resilient in their 3 wins.
28: Redskins (3-9) - Speaking of coaches okay with losing... they should have gone for the jugular when they were inside the 10 with a 7-point lead on the highest scoring team in the league. 30 points is not enough against a team that averages 31.
27: Lions (2-10) - While Stafford may never be an elite quarterback, and he can never erase the memory of 0-16, but he might eventually make them forget about this 2-14 season.
Bad-Luck Bad:
26: Bills (4-8) - You have to think they'd have beaten the Jets if they were not distracted by the bustling Toronto night life.
25: Bears (5-7) - Everybody gets injuries, but only the Bears get Mr. Grumpyface.
24: Raiders (4-8) - Another case of "if we'd have only gone with this back-up quarterback who hasn't proved anything yet sooner, we'd have a few more wins."
23: 49ers (5-7) - If it wasn't for the Crabtree Curse, that 3-1 start would have translated to a 10-6 season.
Who Are We?:
22: Seahawks (5-7) - All I know about the 'Hawks is that they've worn some bright green jerseys at some point this year.
21: Panthers (5-7) - So, Jake Delhomme throws 45 interceptions in the first couple of games, then torches the Cardinals for 4 touchdowns, who is this guy??
20: Texans (5-7) - We are the Texans. We can beat the Colts, maybe... sometimes... if we play a perfect game... hell, who are we kidding, we probably couldn't beat the Longhorns.
Falling From Grace (FAST!):
19: Jets (6-6) - Great defense, new coach, first-round-pretty-boy quarterback, and the relief of not having to pay Brett Favre's healthcare bills... sounds like a formula for winning. Except they're the Jets.
18: Falcons (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
17: Ravens (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
16: Steelers (6-6) - Big Ben gets big knee to head... seems like the whole team took a knee to the head in Kansas City.
In the Chase for No Reason:
15: Jaguars (7-5) - Is it an easy schedule? Is it the lack of pressure from the empty home stadium? Is it the turqoise jerseys?
14: Dolphins (6-6) - No Wildcat. No gimmicks. 8-8 seems very possible.
13: Titans (5-7) - Risen from the dead at 0-6, only to play the Colts like zombies in pads.
NFC (L)easters:
12: Cowboys (8-4) - It's December. If they didn't have this reputation, they'd be top 8.
11: Giants (7-5) - Their sevens wins are over the 'Skins, Chiefs, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, and the Cowboys twice. So they are the Kings of Crap.
Leaders of the Bad Pack:
10: Cardinals (8-4) - That freakish loss to the Panthers is keeping them from being for real.
9: Patriots (7-5) - Trouble brewing in Boston. But playoffs are still in their future.
8: Eagles (8-4) - Nothing like a young, fast receiving core to rejuvenate Donovan's chances. Unfortunately they aren't as consistant as they need to be (see loss to Raiders).
Fringe Contenders
7: Broncos (8-4) - Who'd have thought Kyle Orton, a rookie head coach, a pieced together defense, and last season's collapse could lead to this?
6: Packers (8-4) - Monday's game showed us the evolution of the defense and the best fantasy quarterback is about to blow up (statistically).
5: Bengals (9-3) - They deserve their own category of "Contenders with no identity." Just goes to show you what a group of athletes can do when they stay out of jail.
4: Chargers (9-3) - If Norv Turner wasn't their coach, they'd be the favorites in the AFC.
Great, but Figured Out
3: Vikings (10-2) - Teams know how to beat the Vikings. If they run into the Saints or Colts, expect the opposition to stack the box, run up the score, and force Favre into a marathon. He's great, but he's a amateur jogger, not a Olympic distance runner.
Toss Up Champs
1b: Saints (12-0) - That crowd. That defense. That quarterback. It's like Revenge of the Rejected and Ignored. Only not the true number one because of last week. They are more likely to try hard for 16-0 and thusly slip up and they have less room to mess around with.
1a: Colts (12-0) - I can't crown Peyton and the boys yet, but he's sure trying to convince me.
Picks:
Steelers over Browns
Saints over Falcons
Packers over Bears
Colts over Broncos
Bills over Chiefs
Jets over Buccaneers
Dolphins over Jaguars
Ravens over Lions
Texans over Seahawks
Vikings over Bengals
Patriots over Panthers
Titans over Rams
Raiders over Redskins
Chargers over Cowboys
Eagles over Giants
Cardinals over 49ers
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 129-63
Septic Tankers:
32: Browns (1-11) - You have to wonder if they'd have just settled on Quinn from the beginning, maybe they'd be a more respectable 1-11... maybe 2-10... at least ahead of the Rams.
31: Rams (1-11) - Proof positive that an elite running back is only one piece of the puzzle.
Bad with a Hint of Promise:
30: Buccaneers (1-11) - At least they've settled on a quarterback and are working in some young talent, they only need a couple wily veteran free agents and they'll be better than the Panthers.
29: Chiefs (3-9) - Only in this spot because of their coach is okay with losing, despite the volume of his voice. They were resilient in their 3 wins.
28: Redskins (3-9) - Speaking of coaches okay with losing... they should have gone for the jugular when they were inside the 10 with a 7-point lead on the highest scoring team in the league. 30 points is not enough against a team that averages 31.
27: Lions (2-10) - While Stafford may never be an elite quarterback, and he can never erase the memory of 0-16, but he might eventually make them forget about this 2-14 season.
Bad-Luck Bad:
26: Bills (4-8) - You have to think they'd have beaten the Jets if they were not distracted by the bustling Toronto night life.
25: Bears (5-7) - Everybody gets injuries, but only the Bears get Mr. Grumpyface.
24: Raiders (4-8) - Another case of "if we'd have only gone with this back-up quarterback who hasn't proved anything yet sooner, we'd have a few more wins."
23: 49ers (5-7) - If it wasn't for the Crabtree Curse, that 3-1 start would have translated to a 10-6 season.
Who Are We?:
22: Seahawks (5-7) - All I know about the 'Hawks is that they've worn some bright green jerseys at some point this year.
21: Panthers (5-7) - So, Jake Delhomme throws 45 interceptions in the first couple of games, then torches the Cardinals for 4 touchdowns, who is this guy??
20: Texans (5-7) - We are the Texans. We can beat the Colts, maybe... sometimes... if we play a perfect game... hell, who are we kidding, we probably couldn't beat the Longhorns.
Falling From Grace (FAST!):
19: Jets (6-6) - Great defense, new coach, first-round-pretty-boy quarterback, and the relief of not having to pay Brett Favre's healthcare bills... sounds like a formula for winning. Except they're the Jets.
18: Falcons (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
17: Ravens (6-6) - My how the mighty first-round-quarterback-playoff-team has fallen.
16: Steelers (6-6) - Big Ben gets big knee to head... seems like the whole team took a knee to the head in Kansas City.
In the Chase for No Reason:
15: Jaguars (7-5) - Is it an easy schedule? Is it the lack of pressure from the empty home stadium? Is it the turqoise jerseys?
14: Dolphins (6-6) - No Wildcat. No gimmicks. 8-8 seems very possible.
13: Titans (5-7) - Risen from the dead at 0-6, only to play the Colts like zombies in pads.
NFC (L)easters:
12: Cowboys (8-4) - It's December. If they didn't have this reputation, they'd be top 8.
11: Giants (7-5) - Their sevens wins are over the 'Skins, Chiefs, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, and the Cowboys twice. So they are the Kings of Crap.
Leaders of the Bad Pack:
10: Cardinals (8-4) - That freakish loss to the Panthers is keeping them from being for real.
9: Patriots (7-5) - Trouble brewing in Boston. But playoffs are still in their future.
8: Eagles (8-4) - Nothing like a young, fast receiving core to rejuvenate Donovan's chances. Unfortunately they aren't as consistant as they need to be (see loss to Raiders).
Fringe Contenders
7: Broncos (8-4) - Who'd have thought Kyle Orton, a rookie head coach, a pieced together defense, and last season's collapse could lead to this?
6: Packers (8-4) - Monday's game showed us the evolution of the defense and the best fantasy quarterback is about to blow up (statistically).
5: Bengals (9-3) - They deserve their own category of "Contenders with no identity." Just goes to show you what a group of athletes can do when they stay out of jail.
4: Chargers (9-3) - If Norv Turner wasn't their coach, they'd be the favorites in the AFC.
Great, but Figured Out
3: Vikings (10-2) - Teams know how to beat the Vikings. If they run into the Saints or Colts, expect the opposition to stack the box, run up the score, and force Favre into a marathon. He's great, but he's a amateur jogger, not a Olympic distance runner.
Toss Up Champs
1b: Saints (12-0) - That crowd. That defense. That quarterback. It's like Revenge of the Rejected and Ignored. Only not the true number one because of last week. They are more likely to try hard for 16-0 and thusly slip up and they have less room to mess around with.
1a: Colts (12-0) - I can't crown Peyton and the boys yet, but he's sure trying to convince me.
Picks:
Steelers over Browns
Saints over Falcons
Packers over Bears
Colts over Broncos
Bills over Chiefs
Jets over Buccaneers
Dolphins over Jaguars
Ravens over Lions
Texans over Seahawks
Vikings over Bengals
Patriots over Panthers
Titans over Rams
Raiders over Redskins
Chargers over Cowboys
Eagles over Giants
Cardinals over 49ers
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 129-63
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Pre-Bowl Rankings
Here are my "BCS" Rankings:
1: Alabama (13-0)
2: Texas (13-0)
3: Boise State (13-0)
4: Cincinnati (12-0)
5: Texas Christian (12-0)
6: Florida (12-1)
7: Georgia Tech (11-2)
8: Central Michigan (11-2)
9: Oregon (10-2)
10: Ohio State (10-2)
11: Iowa (10-2)
12: Penn State (10-2)
13: Brigham Young (10-2)
14: Houston (10-3)
15: Virginia Tech (9-3)
16: Miami (FL) (9-3)
17: Louisiana State (9-3)
18: West Virginia (9-3)
19: Pittsburgh (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Wisconsin (9-3)
22: Utah (9-3)
23: Nebraska (9-4)
24: East Carolina (9-4)
25: Arizona (8-4)
26: Oregon State (8-4)
27: Stanford (8-4)
28: Southern Cal (8-4)
29: California (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Clemson (8-5)
36: Georgia (7-5)
37: Oklahoma (7-5)
Honorable Mention: Troy (9-3), Mid Tennessee State (9-3), Temple (9-3), Ohio (9-4), Boston College (8-4), Rutgers (8-4), Navy (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Fresno State (8-4), Nevada (8-4).
So if we took the 11 conference Champions and 5 other teams for a 16-team playoff and used my rankings to determine the 5 at-large bids and seeding, here's how the tournament would look (number represents rank not seed):
#1 Alabama vs. Troy
#8 Central Michigan vs. #9 Oregon
#5 TCU vs. #12 Penn State
#4 Cincinnati vs. #13 BYU
#3 Boise State vs. #14 Houston
#6 Florida vs. #11 Iowa
#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs. #24 East Carolina
NOTE: The only two conference champs outside the top-16 were East Carolina and Troy, so they are the 15th and 16th seeds respectively.
Odds are we'd still end up with Texas and Alabama for the title. My true proposal would be to realign the conferences so we had ten 12-team conferences playing all eleven conference games, then do the 16-team tournament. But more on that another time.
1: Alabama (13-0)
2: Texas (13-0)
3: Boise State (13-0)
4: Cincinnati (12-0)
5: Texas Christian (12-0)
6: Florida (12-1)
7: Georgia Tech (11-2)
8: Central Michigan (11-2)
9: Oregon (10-2)
10: Ohio State (10-2)
11: Iowa (10-2)
12: Penn State (10-2)
13: Brigham Young (10-2)
14: Houston (10-3)
15: Virginia Tech (9-3)
16: Miami (FL) (9-3)
17: Louisiana State (9-3)
18: West Virginia (9-3)
19: Pittsburgh (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Wisconsin (9-3)
22: Utah (9-3)
23: Nebraska (9-4)
24: East Carolina (9-4)
25: Arizona (8-4)
26: Oregon State (8-4)
27: Stanford (8-4)
28: Southern Cal (8-4)
29: California (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Clemson (8-5)
36: Georgia (7-5)
37: Oklahoma (7-5)
Honorable Mention: Troy (9-3), Mid Tennessee State (9-3), Temple (9-3), Ohio (9-4), Boston College (8-4), Rutgers (8-4), Navy (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Fresno State (8-4), Nevada (8-4).
So if we took the 11 conference Champions and 5 other teams for a 16-team playoff and used my rankings to determine the 5 at-large bids and seeding, here's how the tournament would look (number represents rank not seed):
#1 Alabama vs. Troy
#8 Central Michigan vs. #9 Oregon
#5 TCU vs. #12 Penn State
#4 Cincinnati vs. #13 BYU
#3 Boise State vs. #14 Houston
#6 Florida vs. #11 Iowa
#7 Georgia Tech vs. #10 Ohio State
#2 Texas vs. #24 East Carolina
NOTE: The only two conference champs outside the top-16 were East Carolina and Troy, so they are the 15th and 16th seeds respectively.
Odds are we'd still end up with Texas and Alabama for the title. My true proposal would be to realign the conferences so we had ten 12-team conferences playing all eleven conference games, then do the 16-team tournament. But more on that another time.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
NFL Week 13 Picks
I intended to get this out earlier this morning, but a trip to the grocery store and the Lord of the Rings marathon on TNT really did not help my productivity this morning.
Eagles over Falcons... Falcons are mediocre, the Eagles are playoff worthy.
Bears over Rams... this is the chance for Jay Cutler to prove he can win, he may be a bust if he can't win this kind of game.
Bengals over Lions... can the Bengals really challenge the Colts and Patriots?
Colts over Titans... one streak is going to end, and I'm not ready to bet against Peyton.
Broncos over Chiefs... speaking of streaks ending, at least the Chiefs had a winning streak this year (and they still have the Bills and Browns on the schedule).
Saints over Redskins... there is nothing these Saints cannot do, they could even beat the Colts.
Panthers over Buccaneers... the battle for least good in the NFC South.
Jaguars over Texans... followed by the battle for least good in the AFC South.
Steelers over Raiders... no cure for a losing streak like the Raiders.
Patriots over Dolphins... there is a lot of promise in this Dolphins team, but without Ronnie Brown, they are mediocre.
Chargers over Browns... Brown is the color of poo!
49ers over Seahawks... Seattle is not going to run the ball like they did last week on the good Niners defense.
Cowboys over Giants... time to show there will not be a December slump for the Cowboys this year... maybe they can use some of the luck from the Longhorns.
Vikings over Cardinals... because of the team around him, I don't think Favre will slip up quite yet.
Ravens over Packers... sorry Pack fans, I think the Ravens are rolling.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 120-56
Eagles over Falcons... Falcons are mediocre, the Eagles are playoff worthy.
Bears over Rams... this is the chance for Jay Cutler to prove he can win, he may be a bust if he can't win this kind of game.
Bengals over Lions... can the Bengals really challenge the Colts and Patriots?
Colts over Titans... one streak is going to end, and I'm not ready to bet against Peyton.
Broncos over Chiefs... speaking of streaks ending, at least the Chiefs had a winning streak this year (and they still have the Bills and Browns on the schedule).
Saints over Redskins... there is nothing these Saints cannot do, they could even beat the Colts.
Panthers over Buccaneers... the battle for least good in the NFC South.
Jaguars over Texans... followed by the battle for least good in the AFC South.
Steelers over Raiders... no cure for a losing streak like the Raiders.
Patriots over Dolphins... there is a lot of promise in this Dolphins team, but without Ronnie Brown, they are mediocre.
Chargers over Browns... Brown is the color of poo!
49ers over Seahawks... Seattle is not going to run the ball like they did last week on the good Niners defense.
Cowboys over Giants... time to show there will not be a December slump for the Cowboys this year... maybe they can use some of the luck from the Longhorns.
Vikings over Cardinals... because of the team around him, I don't think Favre will slip up quite yet.
Ravens over Packers... sorry Pack fans, I think the Ravens are rolling.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 120-56
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Tonight's NFL Pick and Tiger
Yes, Tiger Woods is now in the same boat as Kobe Bryant. I don't think we should make role models out of men who cheat on their wives. I know plenty of them do it, and it does not mean they cannot be playing sports just because of a mistake, I just think that we could pick better athletes for our children to admire than the ones who commit sin.
Tonight's Jets v. Bills game is a tough call. No real home field advantage and a couple of struggling teams trying to salvage the season. I'll take the smarter quarterback... Fitzpatrick's Harvard education over Sanchez's early USC exit.
Tonight's Jets v. Bills game is a tough call. No real home field advantage and a couple of struggling teams trying to salvage the season. I'll take the smarter quarterback... Fitzpatrick's Harvard education over Sanchez's early USC exit.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
College Championship Week
Next to the last one, enjoy the ride folks.
1: Alabama (12-0)
2: Florida (12-0)
3: Texas (12-0)
4: Texas Christian (12-0)
5: Boise State (12-0)
6: Cincinnati (11-0)
7: Georgia Tech (10-2)
8: Ohio State (10-2)
9: Iowa (10-2)
10: Penn State (10-2)
11: Brigham Young (10-2)
12: Houston (10-2)
13: Central Michigan (10-2)
14: Oregon (9-2)
15: Pittsburgh (9-2)
16: Virginia Tech (9-3)
17: Miami (FL) (9-3)
18: Louisiana State (9-3)
19: Nebraska (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Utah (9-3)
22: Southern Cal (8-3)
23: Oregon State (8-3)
24: California (8-3)
25: West Virginia (8-3)
26: Wisconsin (8-3)
27: Rutgers (8-3)
28: Stanford (8-4)
29: Clemson (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Arizona (7-4)
36: Oklahoma (7-5)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (9-3), Temple (9-3), Troy (9-3), Middle Tennessee State (9-3), Boston College (8-4), Navy (8-4), East Carolina (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Nevada (8-4).
If all is right in the BCS world, and things continue to be "smooth" for the system, these things will happen this weekend:
- Pittsburgh will beat Cincinnati
- Texas will crush Nebraska
- Boise State will slip
- Oregon will beat Oregon State
Then all the pieces will be in place... SEC vs. Big 12 for the title, only one non-AQ team in the BCS, two Big Ten teams, only one other undefeated team to "claim" a shot at the title, and no "mediocre" conference champs (unless you consider 2-loss Ohio State, Pitt, and Oregon mediocre, which they are not, I was more talking about Nebraska or Oregon State).
The College Pick 'Em Challenge has ended, but this week I'm taking Texas, Alabama, Boise State, Oregon, and Pittsburgh in the relevant games.
Last Week: 4-6 (23 pts.) OUCH!
Season: 86-44 (506 pts., 96th percentile)
1: Alabama (12-0)
2: Florida (12-0)
3: Texas (12-0)
4: Texas Christian (12-0)
5: Boise State (12-0)
6: Cincinnati (11-0)
7: Georgia Tech (10-2)
8: Ohio State (10-2)
9: Iowa (10-2)
10: Penn State (10-2)
11: Brigham Young (10-2)
12: Houston (10-2)
13: Central Michigan (10-2)
14: Oregon (9-2)
15: Pittsburgh (9-2)
16: Virginia Tech (9-3)
17: Miami (FL) (9-3)
18: Louisiana State (9-3)
19: Nebraska (9-3)
20: Oklahoma State (9-3)
21: Utah (9-3)
22: Southern Cal (8-3)
23: Oregon State (8-3)
24: California (8-3)
25: West Virginia (8-3)
26: Wisconsin (8-3)
27: Rutgers (8-3)
28: Stanford (8-4)
29: Clemson (8-4)
30: Texas Tech (8-4)
31: North Carolina (8-4)
32: Mississippi (8-4)
33: Missouri (8-4)
34: Northwestern (8-4)
35: Arizona (7-4)
36: Oklahoma (7-5)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (9-3), Temple (9-3), Troy (9-3), Middle Tennessee State (9-3), Boston College (8-4), Navy (8-4), East Carolina (8-4), Central Florida (8-4), Nevada (8-4).
If all is right in the BCS world, and things continue to be "smooth" for the system, these things will happen this weekend:
- Pittsburgh will beat Cincinnati
- Texas will crush Nebraska
- Boise State will slip
- Oregon will beat Oregon State
Then all the pieces will be in place... SEC vs. Big 12 for the title, only one non-AQ team in the BCS, two Big Ten teams, only one other undefeated team to "claim" a shot at the title, and no "mediocre" conference champs (unless you consider 2-loss Ohio State, Pitt, and Oregon mediocre, which they are not, I was more talking about Nebraska or Oregon State).
The College Pick 'Em Challenge has ended, but this week I'm taking Texas, Alabama, Boise State, Oregon, and Pittsburgh in the relevant games.
Last Week: 4-6 (23 pts.) OUCH!
Season: 86-44 (506 pts., 96th percentile)
Saturday, November 28, 2009
NFL Week 12 Picks
I've always been bothered by the Lions and Cowboys getting showcased on Thanksgiving and getting a team to come to their place on a short week. The teams that play on Thanksgiving should get their bye week the Sunday before it. It didn't hurt the Packers, but it sure seemed to hurt the Giants.
Falcons over Buccaneers... Probably the most disappointing team this year outside of the Ravens and maybe it's because they both have a "sophomore slump" quarterbacks and running games that can be keyed on. Unfortunately the Bucs have a quarterback that shouldn't be playing in the NFL and have really forgot how to play defense.
Dolphins over Bills... um, not sure what to say about this game. New coach, same crappy offense.
Bengals over Browns... Time for the Bengals to put the pedal to the metal and take control of the second seed in the AFC.
Seahawks over Rams... No Bulger, no winning. Stephen Jackson can't throw the ball too.
Jets over Panthers... I really want to believe in the Jets and this is their last chance with me.
Eagles over Redskins... So, the 'Skins had a chance to knock off the Cowboys at home, but they blew it with only 6 points and a defensive let down at the end. Not sure if they can get emotionally charged to play the Eagles as well as they played the Cowboys.
Colts over Texans... I'm not picking against Peyton the rest of the year (or until they have locked up home-field advantage).
Chargers over Chiefs... After their performance last week, I really think the Chiefs CAN win. But it's at San Diego, and it's the Chiefs... so take the Chargers.
49ers over Jaguars... Sure, the Jags are coming on strong, but who've they beaten? Nobody I'm concerned about. Plus, the Niners beat the Crabtree curse and have had a long week.
Titans over Cardinals... When January rolls around and the Titans are still playing, I'll be here laughing because I told you so. They should have been playing Young a lot sooner.
Vikings over Bears... Same philosophy as the Colts, with their defense and their running game, Favre could win it all again.
Steelers over Ravens... I know Big Ben is out, I know they lost to the Chiefs, but I'm really sure they don't want to lose again. A loss would put them in big trouble in the playoff race especially with the Titans, Jags, and Chargers coming on.
Patriots over Saints... Here's my faith in the NFL parity system. No way the Patriots lose and let the Colts lock up home-field already. No way the Saints win and hold off the Vikings in the NFC. I know the Superdome will be rocking, but the Patriots offense should be able to keep up.
This week: 2-1
Last week: 13-3
Season: 108-52
Falcons over Buccaneers... Probably the most disappointing team this year outside of the Ravens and maybe it's because they both have a "sophomore slump" quarterbacks and running games that can be keyed on. Unfortunately the Bucs have a quarterback that shouldn't be playing in the NFL and have really forgot how to play defense.
Dolphins over Bills... um, not sure what to say about this game. New coach, same crappy offense.
Bengals over Browns... Time for the Bengals to put the pedal to the metal and take control of the second seed in the AFC.
Seahawks over Rams... No Bulger, no winning. Stephen Jackson can't throw the ball too.
Jets over Panthers... I really want to believe in the Jets and this is their last chance with me.
Eagles over Redskins... So, the 'Skins had a chance to knock off the Cowboys at home, but they blew it with only 6 points and a defensive let down at the end. Not sure if they can get emotionally charged to play the Eagles as well as they played the Cowboys.
Colts over Texans... I'm not picking against Peyton the rest of the year (or until they have locked up home-field advantage).
Chargers over Chiefs... After their performance last week, I really think the Chiefs CAN win. But it's at San Diego, and it's the Chiefs... so take the Chargers.
49ers over Jaguars... Sure, the Jags are coming on strong, but who've they beaten? Nobody I'm concerned about. Plus, the Niners beat the Crabtree curse and have had a long week.
Titans over Cardinals... When January rolls around and the Titans are still playing, I'll be here laughing because I told you so. They should have been playing Young a lot sooner.
Vikings over Bears... Same philosophy as the Colts, with their defense and their running game, Favre could win it all again.
Steelers over Ravens... I know Big Ben is out, I know they lost to the Chiefs, but I'm really sure they don't want to lose again. A loss would put them in big trouble in the playoff race especially with the Titans, Jags, and Chargers coming on.
Patriots over Saints... Here's my faith in the NFL parity system. No way the Patriots lose and let the Colts lock up home-field already. No way the Saints win and hold off the Vikings in the NFC. I know the Superdome will be rocking, but the Patriots offense should be able to keep up.
This week: 2-1
Last week: 13-3
Season: 108-52
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Week 13 College Picks - Turkey Time!
Happy Thanksgiving to all! For today's NFL games I'll take the Packers, Cowboys, and Giants.
Here are this week's rankings:
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (11-0)
3. Texas (11-0)
4. Texas Christian (11-0)
5. Boise State (11-0)
6. Cincinnati (10-0)
7. Georgia Tech (10-1)
8. Pittsburgh (9-1)
9. Ohio State (10-2)
10. Iowa (10-2)
11. Penn State (10-2)
12. Oregon (9-2)
13. Houston (9-2)
14. Oklahoma State (9-2)
15. Utah (9-2)
16. Brigham Young (9-2)
17. Central Michigan (9-2)
18. Temple (9-2)
19. North Carolina (8-3)
20. Virginia Tech (8-3)
21. Clemson (8-3)
22. Miami (FL) (8-3)
23. Oregon State (8-3)
24. Louisiana State (8-3)
25. California (8-3)
26. Nebraska (8-3)
27. Mississippi (8-3)
28. Wisconsin (8-3)
29. Navy (8-3)
30. Southern Cal (7-3)
31. West Virginia (7-3)
32. Nevada (8-3)
33. Northwestern (8-4)
34. Stanford (7-4)
35. Auburn (7-4)
36. Texas Tech (7-4)
37. Kentucky (7-4)
38. Arizona (6-4)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (8-3), Troy (8-3), Middle Tennessee State (8-3), South Florida (7-3), Rutgers (7-3), Boston College (7-4), Missouri (7-4), East Carolina (7-4), Southern Miss (7-4), Northern Illinois (7-4), Arkansas (7-4), Idaho (7-4), Fresno State (7-4).
This week's games:
Arkansas over #24 LSU
#15 Utah over #16 BYU
#34 Stanford over Notre Dame
#7 Georgia Tech over Georgia
#22 Miami (FL) over South Florida
#27 Mississippi over Mississippi State
#21 Clemson over South Carolina
#19 North Carolina over North Carolina State
#20 Virginia Tech over Virginia
#2 Florida over Florida State
Last Week: 6-4 (33 pts.)
Season: 82-38 (479 pts. 98th percentile)
Here are this week's rankings:
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (11-0)
3. Texas (11-0)
4. Texas Christian (11-0)
5. Boise State (11-0)
6. Cincinnati (10-0)
7. Georgia Tech (10-1)
8. Pittsburgh (9-1)
9. Ohio State (10-2)
10. Iowa (10-2)
11. Penn State (10-2)
12. Oregon (9-2)
13. Houston (9-2)
14. Oklahoma State (9-2)
15. Utah (9-2)
16. Brigham Young (9-2)
17. Central Michigan (9-2)
18. Temple (9-2)
19. North Carolina (8-3)
20. Virginia Tech (8-3)
21. Clemson (8-3)
22. Miami (FL) (8-3)
23. Oregon State (8-3)
24. Louisiana State (8-3)
25. California (8-3)
26. Nebraska (8-3)
27. Mississippi (8-3)
28. Wisconsin (8-3)
29. Navy (8-3)
30. Southern Cal (7-3)
31. West Virginia (7-3)
32. Nevada (8-3)
33. Northwestern (8-4)
34. Stanford (7-4)
35. Auburn (7-4)
36. Texas Tech (7-4)
37. Kentucky (7-4)
38. Arizona (6-4)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (8-3), Troy (8-3), Middle Tennessee State (8-3), South Florida (7-3), Rutgers (7-3), Boston College (7-4), Missouri (7-4), East Carolina (7-4), Southern Miss (7-4), Northern Illinois (7-4), Arkansas (7-4), Idaho (7-4), Fresno State (7-4).
This week's games:
Arkansas over #24 LSU
#15 Utah over #16 BYU
#34 Stanford over Notre Dame
#7 Georgia Tech over Georgia
#22 Miami (FL) over South Florida
#27 Mississippi over Mississippi State
#21 Clemson over South Carolina
#19 North Carolina over North Carolina State
#20 Virginia Tech over Virginia
#2 Florida over Florida State
Last Week: 6-4 (33 pts.)
Season: 82-38 (479 pts. 98th percentile)
Friday, November 20, 2009
NFL Week 11 Picks
Because I've been busy this weekend with school and family/holiday plans, this is an abridged version of the picks for the week. Feel free to ask for a reason, I just don't have time at the moment.
Lions over Browns
Packers over 49ers
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Redskins
Giants over Falcons
Saints over Buccaneers
Jaguars over Bills
Colts over Ravens
Vikings over Seahawks
Cardinals over Rams
Chargers over Broncos
Bengals over Raiders
Patriots over Jets
Eagles over Bears
Texans over Titans
Last Week: 7-8
Season: 95-49
Lions over Browns
Packers over 49ers
Steelers over Chiefs
Cowboys over Redskins
Giants over Falcons
Saints over Buccaneers
Jaguars over Bills
Colts over Ravens
Vikings over Seahawks
Cardinals over Rams
Chargers over Broncos
Bengals over Raiders
Patriots over Jets
Eagles over Bears
Texans over Titans
Last Week: 7-8
Season: 95-49
Thursday, November 19, 2009
College Week 12 Picks
Since we are into the ridiculous "NFL on other days than Sunday and Monday" part of the season, I must remember the "showdown" tonight.
Dolphins over Panthers ... Yes, they are on the road. Yes, they have struggled to be 4-5. Yes, they are without their best player (Ronnie Brown). But I really think the Dolphins are better than 4-5 and the Panthers are worse than 4-5... you'll see. Pat White and Ricky Williams can run the wildcat without Brown.
Before I get to my college picks, I thought I'd run down my preseaon picks and "remodel" them for the final 3 weeks.
ACC - Georgia Tech over Clemson (Preseason Pick - Georgia Tech over Florida State) I was half right. I also got UNC's resurgence pretty close.Big12 - Texas over Nebraska (Preseason Pick - Texas over Nebraska) Right on! Nebraska had some surprising losses, and I was too nice to OU. I can't be blamed for Baylor's injuries.
Big Ten - Ohio State (clinched) (Preseason Pick - Penn State) They surprised me by not winning at home and Illinois fell apart again.Big East - Pittsburgh (Preseason Pick - Cincinnati) I had Pitt second and I'm changing my mind now because the Pitt offensive is surging and I think Cincinnati is one big mistake away from ruining the season.
C-USA - East Carolina over Houston (Preseason Pick - Houston over East Carolina) Changing my mind because Houston couldn't take care of business. I still think SMU will slip and let Houston off the hook and back in the game. I did underestimate SMU, and was close with Houston's BCS talk.MAC - Central Michigan over Temple (Preseason Pick - Buffalo over Central Michigan) The Bulls let me down, they had so much potential. Temple came out of nowhere (read: easy schedule) but I was almost dead on with the Chips.
MWC - Texas Christian (clinched) (Preseason Pick - Texas Christian) NAILED IT!!Pac-10 - Oregon (Preseason Pick - Southern Cal) Thanks a lot Trojans. I did have the Ducks second and the Wildcats fourth.
SEC - Florida over Alabama (Preseason Pick - Florida over Alabama) While the results are pending... NAILED IT! Florida will win the SEC Championship 3-0 on a Tim Tebow 55-yard field goal in triple OT... with the Gators having only 65 yards of offense and the Tide going 0-7 in the red zone, Tebow will come out to kick the winning field goal after his kicker misses one in each of the previous two OTs.Sun Belt - Troy (Preseason Pick - Troy) Whiffed on Western Kentucky actually winning, but nailed Troy as well as I could.
WAC - Boise State (Preseason Pick - Boise State) Pending Boise surviving Nevada, I nailed the top three in this conference.My BCS Top 10 predictions are 6 for 10. Swap Boise State with Houston and Alabama with Virginia Tech, and I only missed on USC and Penn State.
This week's Rankings:
1: Alabama (10-0)2: Florida (10-0)
3: Cincinnati (10-0)
4: Texas (10-0)
6: Boise State (10-0)
7: Georgia Tech (10-1)
8: Pittsburgh (9-1)
9: Ohio State (9-2)
10: Iowa (9-2)
11: Penn State (9-2)
12: Oregon (8-2)
13: Louisiana State (8-2)
14: Oklahoma State (8-2)
15: Wisconsin (8-2)
16: Utah (8-2)
17: Brigham Young (8-2)
18: Houston (8-2)
19: Temple (8-2)
20: Rutgers (7-2)
21: Navy (8-3)
22: Virginia Tech (7-3)
23: Southern Cal (7-3)
24: Miami (FL) (7-3)
25: Stanford (7-3)
26: Oregon State (7-3)
27: Clemson (7-3)
28: North Carolina (7-3)
29: California (7-3)
30: West Virginia (7-3)
31: Nebraska (7-3)
32: Boston College (7-3)
33: Mississippi (7-3)
34: Nevada (7-3)
35: Arizona (6-3)
36: Auburn (7-4)
37: Georgia (6-4)
38: Oklahoma (6-4)
39: Texas Tech (6-4)
Honorable Mention: Central Michigan (8-2), Northern Illinois (7-3), Ohio (7-3), Troy (7-3), Middle Tennessee State (7-3), Idaho (7-4), Air Force (7-4), Northwestern (7-4).
Mississippi over #13 Louisiana State... going for the home team upset.
#35 Arizona over #12 Oregon... Oregon gets stuck looking ahead, but still wins the Pac-10.
#28 North Carolina over #32 Boston College... BC is one of the most erratic teams, and so is UNC, going with the Heels.#17 Brigham Young over Air Force... The Cougars are getting ready for Utah, and might get trapped, but probably not.
#38 Oklahoma over #39 Texas Tech... OU has struggled against good defenses, guess what Tech doesn't have?#29 California over #25 Stanford... it's time for a let down for Stanford.
Notre Dame over Connecticut... fighting for Charlie's job? It'll come down to Stanford.#37 Georgia over Kentucky... Basketball season started, time for Kentucky to stop playing football.
#11 Penn State over Michigan State... Penn State might be the best third-place team since Texas Tech last year.#9 Ohio State over Michigan... possibly a trap game for OSU, but I'm sure they won't let the Wolverines ruin their "Rose Run."
Last Week: 7-3 (38 pts.)
Season: 76-34 (446 pts., 96th percentile)
Last Week: 7-3 (38 pts.)
Season: 76-34 (446 pts., 96th percentile)
Saturday, November 14, 2009
NFL Week 10 Picks
You saw from my college column this week that I had the Bears over the 49ers and Jay Cutler decided to kick me in the testicles and throw 5 picks. So, the Crabtree Curse is over and Cutler sucks.
For this week, there were many easy games to call...
Saints over Rams... I know they won a game and they had their bye week, but does anyone really think the Rams are the team that will knock off the Saints?
Dolphins over Buccaneers... A note for Tampa fans: Josh Freeman was well known in college for having 1 great game against a great team followed by 4 stinkers against mediocre teams. He once beat Texas in Austin and his team STILL did not make a bowl that year. He was benched after 1 quarter against Mizzou last year.
Vikings over Lions... Give Favre, Peterson, and Allen a week off then the Lions? Victory.
Jets over Jaguars... I really think the Jets can get it going and a home game against the Jags is a pretty good start.
Broncos over Redskins... Time to get back on track Broncos. The Chargers are lurking in the rear-view mirror again.
Ravens over Browns... The Browns get to play a Monday night game? It what world is this justifiable?? C'mon, man.
There are a few that took a while to decide on a sure winner...
Falcons over Panthers... I think Matt Ryan will have good game (more on that later), and Delhomme will also complete some passes to the Falcons.
Titans over Bills... T.O. is hurt and the Titans are getting rolling. They will probably move out of the bad team category to the "eh" team level.
Cowboys over Packers... So, Aaron Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB and my starter. Ever since the Raven's bye week, I've been taking defenses on a week-to-week basis. I decided on the Cowboys this week to get several sacks and a couple picks, so I benched Rodgers (and Ryan Grant) and I'm putting all my weight on the Dallas D.
Then there are the head scratchers...
Cardinals over Seahawks... Revenge factor for the Cardinals? Can the Seahawks run the ball? NFC West Championship on the line? Too many questions, no good answer.
Raiders over Chiefs... The loser will challenge the Browns for the worst team this year. Who wants Tebow??
Steelers over Bengals... Revenge for the rolling Steelers, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Bengals.
Chargers over Eagles... They always talk about how much trouble west coast teams have in early games on the east coast. What about east coast teams playing in late games on the west coast. The Eagles will think it's 7 when the game starts and the sun will still be out.
Patriots over Colts... If the Colts are going to lose this year, it will be this game. Their secondary is banged up, and the Patriots are looking to end their recent losing streak to the Colts.
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 88-41
For this week, there were many easy games to call...
Saints over Rams... I know they won a game and they had their bye week, but does anyone really think the Rams are the team that will knock off the Saints?
Dolphins over Buccaneers... A note for Tampa fans: Josh Freeman was well known in college for having 1 great game against a great team followed by 4 stinkers against mediocre teams. He once beat Texas in Austin and his team STILL did not make a bowl that year. He was benched after 1 quarter against Mizzou last year.
Vikings over Lions... Give Favre, Peterson, and Allen a week off then the Lions? Victory.
Jets over Jaguars... I really think the Jets can get it going and a home game against the Jags is a pretty good start.
Broncos over Redskins... Time to get back on track Broncos. The Chargers are lurking in the rear-view mirror again.
Ravens over Browns... The Browns get to play a Monday night game? It what world is this justifiable?? C'mon, man.
There are a few that took a while to decide on a sure winner...
Falcons over Panthers... I think Matt Ryan will have good game (more on that later), and Delhomme will also complete some passes to the Falcons.
Titans over Bills... T.O. is hurt and the Titans are getting rolling. They will probably move out of the bad team category to the "eh" team level.
Cowboys over Packers... So, Aaron Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB and my starter. Ever since the Raven's bye week, I've been taking defenses on a week-to-week basis. I decided on the Cowboys this week to get several sacks and a couple picks, so I benched Rodgers (and Ryan Grant) and I'm putting all my weight on the Dallas D.
Then there are the head scratchers...
Cardinals over Seahawks... Revenge factor for the Cardinals? Can the Seahawks run the ball? NFC West Championship on the line? Too many questions, no good answer.
Raiders over Chiefs... The loser will challenge the Browns for the worst team this year. Who wants Tebow??
Steelers over Bengals... Revenge for the rolling Steelers, and I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop on the Bengals.
Chargers over Eagles... They always talk about how much trouble west coast teams have in early games on the east coast. What about east coast teams playing in late games on the west coast. The Eagles will think it's 7 when the game starts and the sun will still be out.
Patriots over Colts... If the Colts are going to lose this year, it will be this game. Their secondary is banged up, and the Patriots are looking to end their recent losing streak to the Colts.
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 88-41
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Week 10 College Football
It's do or die time in College football, and you know everything will be up for grabs because I have a new number one. But first things first:
Bears over 49ers... I wavered just long enough, so don't think this is an uber-confident pick here. I'm totally riding the Crabtree Curse until the Niners win with him.
Rankings for this week:
1: Alabama (9-0)
2: Florida (9-0)
3: Cincinnati (9-0)
4: Texas (9-0)
5: Texas Christian (9-0)
6: Boise State (9-0)
7: Georgia Tech (9-1)
8: Iowa (9-1)
9: Pittsburgh (8-1)
10: Utah (8-1)
11: Houston (8-1)
12: Ohio State (8-2)
13: Penn State (8-2)
14: Oregon (7-2)
15: Southern Cal (7-2)
16: Miami (FL) (7-2)
17: Louisiana State (7-2)
18: West Virginia (7-2)
19: Oklahoma State (7-2)
20: Wisconsin (7-2)
21: Brigham Young (7-2)
22: Temple (7-2)
23: Arizona (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Auburn (7-3)
27: Navy (7-3)
28: Virginia Tech (6-3)
29: Oregon State (6-3)
30: Stanford (6-3)
31: Clemson (6-3)
32: Texas Tech (6-3)
33: Nebraska (6-3)
34: Mississippi (6-3)
35: Fresno State (6-3)
36: Kansas State (6-4)
37: Tennessee (5-4)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (7-3), Central Michigan (7-2), Idaho (7-3), Troy (7-2).
Weekly Picks:
Georgia over #26 Auburn ... I know this might be a silly upset pick, but I don't like the Tigers on the road in a rivalry game. Maybe they are getting nervous about the upcoming Iron Bowl, who knows?
#34 Mississippi over #37 Tennessee ... They are not a top 5 team, but they are a quality team, probably 9-3 worthy. The Vols are no better than 7-5, so I'll take the Rebels at home.
#16 Miami (FL) over North Carolina ... Every time I get behind the Canes, they let me down (see loss to Clemson). The Tar Heels have some great wins, but they let Florida State off the hook. I'll go with the Canes to keep pace in the division.
#5 Texas Christian over #10 Utah ... Give me the Frogs stifling defense against a freshman quarterback any day. Even if the freshman has been sparking the Utes. A TCU loss would be the end of the MWC auto-bid argument.
#15 Southern Cal over #30 Stanford ... Two factors are key for this game: one, Stanford ran all over Oregon the week after Oregon ran all over USC; two, USC wants sweet revenge for Stanfords upset in '07. I'm taking the second option because I think USC fixed the problems.
#9 Pittsburgh over Notre Dame ... The Irish are sunk. They do one thing well... Clausen to Tate. That being said, if they are going to return to glory, now is the time. I'm just tired of Weis's job being safe or fragile week to week and it being news. Apparently each game is the biggest of his career.
#2 Florida over South Carolina ... I'm not buying into the "Spurrier against his old team at home" idea. Tebow doesn't like to lose, Spikes hates to lose, and the Pouncey twins love to eat the celebratory buffet... so Gators all the way!
#19 Oklahoma State over #32 Texas Tech ... This Tech team is not quite like last year's. It's more like it usually is... blowing out the weaker teams, not stopping the better teams. They are a bowl team, not a division champ team. The Cowboys are playing for the Cotton Bowl.
#11 Houston over Central Florida ... I think Tulsa was the last barrier to Houston's 12-win season and C-USA championship. UCF can play with the Cougs, but I don't think the team that beat both teams from the previous game in back-to-back games will do just fine.
#12 Ohio State over #8 Iowa ... If Stanzi wasn't hurt I'd be taking Iowa. The back-up on the big stage, on the road, against a surging high-quality team is not a good pick. That being said, there is the let-down chance for the Buckeyes.
Last Week: 6-4 (29 pts.)
Season: 69-31 (408 pts., 95th percentile)
Bears over 49ers... I wavered just long enough, so don't think this is an uber-confident pick here. I'm totally riding the Crabtree Curse until the Niners win with him.
Rankings for this week:
1: Alabama (9-0)
2: Florida (9-0)
3: Cincinnati (9-0)
4: Texas (9-0)
5: Texas Christian (9-0)
6: Boise State (9-0)
7: Georgia Tech (9-1)
8: Iowa (9-1)
9: Pittsburgh (8-1)
10: Utah (8-1)
11: Houston (8-1)
12: Ohio State (8-2)
13: Penn State (8-2)
14: Oregon (7-2)
15: Southern Cal (7-2)
16: Miami (FL) (7-2)
17: Louisiana State (7-2)
18: West Virginia (7-2)
19: Oklahoma State (7-2)
20: Wisconsin (7-2)
21: Brigham Young (7-2)
22: Temple (7-2)
23: Arizona (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Auburn (7-3)
27: Navy (7-3)
28: Virginia Tech (6-3)
29: Oregon State (6-3)
30: Stanford (6-3)
31: Clemson (6-3)
32: Texas Tech (6-3)
33: Nebraska (6-3)
34: Mississippi (6-3)
35: Fresno State (6-3)
36: Kansas State (6-4)
37: Tennessee (5-4)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (7-3), Central Michigan (7-2), Idaho (7-3), Troy (7-2).
Weekly Picks:
Georgia over #26 Auburn ... I know this might be a silly upset pick, but I don't like the Tigers on the road in a rivalry game. Maybe they are getting nervous about the upcoming Iron Bowl, who knows?
#34 Mississippi over #37 Tennessee ... They are not a top 5 team, but they are a quality team, probably 9-3 worthy. The Vols are no better than 7-5, so I'll take the Rebels at home.
#16 Miami (FL) over North Carolina ... Every time I get behind the Canes, they let me down (see loss to Clemson). The Tar Heels have some great wins, but they let Florida State off the hook. I'll go with the Canes to keep pace in the division.
#5 Texas Christian over #10 Utah ... Give me the Frogs stifling defense against a freshman quarterback any day. Even if the freshman has been sparking the Utes. A TCU loss would be the end of the MWC auto-bid argument.
#15 Southern Cal over #30 Stanford ... Two factors are key for this game: one, Stanford ran all over Oregon the week after Oregon ran all over USC; two, USC wants sweet revenge for Stanfords upset in '07. I'm taking the second option because I think USC fixed the problems.
#9 Pittsburgh over Notre Dame ... The Irish are sunk. They do one thing well... Clausen to Tate. That being said, if they are going to return to glory, now is the time. I'm just tired of Weis's job being safe or fragile week to week and it being news. Apparently each game is the biggest of his career.
#2 Florida over South Carolina ... I'm not buying into the "Spurrier against his old team at home" idea. Tebow doesn't like to lose, Spikes hates to lose, and the Pouncey twins love to eat the celebratory buffet... so Gators all the way!
#19 Oklahoma State over #32 Texas Tech ... This Tech team is not quite like last year's. It's more like it usually is... blowing out the weaker teams, not stopping the better teams. They are a bowl team, not a division champ team. The Cowboys are playing for the Cotton Bowl.
#11 Houston over Central Florida ... I think Tulsa was the last barrier to Houston's 12-win season and C-USA championship. UCF can play with the Cougs, but I don't think the team that beat both teams from the previous game in back-to-back games will do just fine.
#12 Ohio State over #8 Iowa ... If Stanzi wasn't hurt I'd be taking Iowa. The back-up on the big stage, on the road, against a surging high-quality team is not a good pick. That being said, there is the let-down chance for the Buckeyes.
Last Week: 6-4 (29 pts.)
Season: 69-31 (408 pts., 95th percentile)
Sunday, November 8, 2009
NFL Week 9 Picks
It's a turning point week in the season. We're halfway done and there are some obviously great teams, some obviously bad teams, and some "Eh" teams. The "Eh" teams might make the playoffs and they might get top 10 draft picks. So there is a lot still to be determined.
Obviously great teams: Colts, Saints, Steelers, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Eagles.
Obviously bad teams: Browns, Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, Redskins, Bills, Titans.
"Eh" teams: Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Bears.
Falcons over Redskins... "Eh" team number one. Great running game and quarterback, but they are not good enough to challenge the Saints and the Eagles. Good thing obviously bad team number one comes to town this week.
Cardinals over Bears... Two "Eh" teams coming off less than stellar performances. I really think they need to start calling it the Kyle Orton trade. Chicago appears to have gotten the shit-end of the stick on that one.
Ravens over Bengals... I'm taking the road team again in another battle of "Eh" teams. I expect the Ravens to exact revenge for the early season upset. No let down on the way to the playoffs.
Colts over Texans... I really wanted to pick the Texans, they might be the best "Eh" team, they are playoff caliber, and they play the Colts well. But picking against Manning at home is awfully silly.
Patriots over Dolphins... I truly believe the Patriots are a great team. They'll prove it by beating the "Eh" Dolphins soundly.
Packers over Buccaneers... The Pack is a few new offensive linemen away from being a great team, despite the losses to the Vikings. I'm not sure when the Buccaneers will win another game, it might be 2010.
Jaguars over Chiefs... I'll give the struggling "Eh" team the nod against the terrible team that might not win again until 2011... or maybe against the Browns. Plus, I don't think the Chiefs have ever won in Jacksonville.
Seahawks over Lions... They lost to the Rams. 'Nuff said.
Saints over Panthers... The Panthers should have fallen into the bad team category but for some reason they keep winning with Jake Delhomme.
Giants over Chargers... West coast team on the east coast without a consistent offense? Take the Giants.
Titans over 49ers... As much as I like the Niners and Mike Singletary, I'm taking the upset. The Titans figured something out last week. Oh, and then there's the Crabtree Curse (0-3 since he signed).
Eagles over Cowboys... Here is where the Eagles prove they are a great team and take control of the division race.
Steelers over Broncos... The Broncos may fall to an "Eh" team if they don't get back to knocking people in the mouth.
Last Week: 8-5
Season: 79-37
Obviously great teams: Colts, Saints, Steelers, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Eagles.
Obviously bad teams: Browns, Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, Redskins, Bills, Titans.
"Eh" teams: Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, Giants, Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Bears.
Falcons over Redskins... "Eh" team number one. Great running game and quarterback, but they are not good enough to challenge the Saints and the Eagles. Good thing obviously bad team number one comes to town this week.
Cardinals over Bears... Two "Eh" teams coming off less than stellar performances. I really think they need to start calling it the Kyle Orton trade. Chicago appears to have gotten the shit-end of the stick on that one.
Ravens over Bengals... I'm taking the road team again in another battle of "Eh" teams. I expect the Ravens to exact revenge for the early season upset. No let down on the way to the playoffs.
Colts over Texans... I really wanted to pick the Texans, they might be the best "Eh" team, they are playoff caliber, and they play the Colts well. But picking against Manning at home is awfully silly.
Patriots over Dolphins... I truly believe the Patriots are a great team. They'll prove it by beating the "Eh" Dolphins soundly.
Packers over Buccaneers... The Pack is a few new offensive linemen away from being a great team, despite the losses to the Vikings. I'm not sure when the Buccaneers will win another game, it might be 2010.
Jaguars over Chiefs... I'll give the struggling "Eh" team the nod against the terrible team that might not win again until 2011... or maybe against the Browns. Plus, I don't think the Chiefs have ever won in Jacksonville.
Seahawks over Lions... They lost to the Rams. 'Nuff said.
Saints over Panthers... The Panthers should have fallen into the bad team category but for some reason they keep winning with Jake Delhomme.
Giants over Chargers... West coast team on the east coast without a consistent offense? Take the Giants.
Titans over 49ers... As much as I like the Niners and Mike Singletary, I'm taking the upset. The Titans figured something out last week. Oh, and then there's the Crabtree Curse (0-3 since he signed).
Eagles over Cowboys... Here is where the Eagles prove they are a great team and take control of the division race.
Steelers over Broncos... The Broncos may fall to an "Eh" team if they don't get back to knocking people in the mouth.
Last Week: 8-5
Season: 79-37
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Week 8 College Football
So, I guess I have only one reader as only one person responded. Thanks, Conn. The future of this blog is all for you.
Yes, Iowa is my number one. I know they have barely beaten some bad teams, and got some controversial call to go their way last week, but they have more wins than anyone else and NO LOSSES. You know I'm of the school of thought that no losses is better than one loss, no matter who that loss was too.
1: Iowa (9-0)
2: Alabama (8-0)
3: Florida (8-0)
4: Texas (8-0)
5: Cincinnati (8-0)
6: Texas Christian (8-0)
7: Boise State (8-0)
8: Georgia Tech (8-1)
9: Penn State (8-1)
10: Oregon (7-1)
11: Louisiana State (7-1)
12: Pittsburgh (7-1)
13: Utah (7-1)
14: Houston (7-1)
15: Ohio State (7-2)
16: Central Michigan (7-2)
17: Idaho (7-2)
18: Southern California (6-2)
19: Miami (FL) (6-2)
20: Notre Dame (6-2)
21: California (6-2)
22: West Virginia (6-2)
23: Oklahoma State (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Wisconsin (6-2)
26: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Brigham Young (6-2)
28: Temple (6-2)
29: Auburn (6-3)
30: Texas Tech (6-3)
31: Boston College (6-3)
32: Arizona (5-2)
33: Oklahoma (5-3)
34: Virginia Tech (5-3)
35: Clemson (5-3)
36: Tennessee (4-4)
Honorable Mention: Navy (6-3), Ohio (6-3), South Carolina (6-3), Troy (6-3).
Oregon State over #21 California... I'm casually calling for the upset. The Bears are up and down. Sure, their only losses are to USC and Oregon. But they were not pretty losses. I have more confidence in the Beavers' passing game than the Bears passing defense.
Arkansas over South Carolina... Upset special. I've been thoroughly unimpressed with the Cocks in their big games. They barely beat NC State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Arkansas would have beat three of those team easily (they didn't beat Ole Miss).
#9 Penn State over #15 Ohio State... I'll take the home team, mostly because Terrell Pryor is not who we thought he was.
#35 Clemson over Florida State... A little bit of off-field distraction with coaching decisions for the Seminoles will be enough for the Tigers who always play well at home at night on TV.
Michigan over Purdue... At some point this spread running game will get to the slow, plodding Big 10 defenses. I think Michigan turns it around... let's say they win 8 of their next 10 games (includes next season).
Kansas State over Kansas... The Sunflower Showdown? Really? It's sad to say that no one is out of the Big 12 North picture... Remember, the 5-4 "division-leading" Wildcats have 2 wins over FCS schools (their other wins are Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Colorado). No one has been impressive in this division (3-9 against the South, with 2 wins against Baylor).
#2 Alabama over #11 LSU... This will be VERY low scoring, if there is no touchdowns, don't be surprised. But Alabama is just more polished.
#10 Oregon over Stanford... Remember, I like the Cardinal running game, but 600 yards on USC's defense? Come on.
#18 Southern Cal over Arizona State... Speaking of the USC defense, is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Trojans will be playing pissed this week??
#33 Oklahoma over Nebraksa... Speaking of unimpressive Big 12 North teams, I can't believe Mizzou lost to this Nebraksa team.
Last Week 8-2 (51 pts.)
Season: 63-27 (379 pts., 91st percentile)
Yes, Iowa is my number one. I know they have barely beaten some bad teams, and got some controversial call to go their way last week, but they have more wins than anyone else and NO LOSSES. You know I'm of the school of thought that no losses is better than one loss, no matter who that loss was too.
1: Iowa (9-0)
2: Alabama (8-0)
3: Florida (8-0)
4: Texas (8-0)
5: Cincinnati (8-0)
6: Texas Christian (8-0)
7: Boise State (8-0)
8: Georgia Tech (8-1)
9: Penn State (8-1)
10: Oregon (7-1)
11: Louisiana State (7-1)
12: Pittsburgh (7-1)
13: Utah (7-1)
14: Houston (7-1)
15: Ohio State (7-2)
16: Central Michigan (7-2)
17: Idaho (7-2)
18: Southern California (6-2)
19: Miami (FL) (6-2)
20: Notre Dame (6-2)
21: California (6-2)
22: West Virginia (6-2)
23: Oklahoma State (6-2)
24: South Florida (6-2)
25: Wisconsin (6-2)
26: Rutgers (6-2)
26: Brigham Young (6-2)
28: Temple (6-2)
29: Auburn (6-3)
30: Texas Tech (6-3)
31: Boston College (6-3)
32: Arizona (5-2)
33: Oklahoma (5-3)
34: Virginia Tech (5-3)
35: Clemson (5-3)
36: Tennessee (4-4)
Honorable Mention: Navy (6-3), Ohio (6-3), South Carolina (6-3), Troy (6-3).
Oregon State over #21 California... I'm casually calling for the upset. The Bears are up and down. Sure, their only losses are to USC and Oregon. But they were not pretty losses. I have more confidence in the Beavers' passing game than the Bears passing defense.
Arkansas over South Carolina... Upset special. I've been thoroughly unimpressed with the Cocks in their big games. They barely beat NC State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Arkansas would have beat three of those team easily (they didn't beat Ole Miss).
#9 Penn State over #15 Ohio State... I'll take the home team, mostly because Terrell Pryor is not who we thought he was.
#35 Clemson over Florida State... A little bit of off-field distraction with coaching decisions for the Seminoles will be enough for the Tigers who always play well at home at night on TV.
Michigan over Purdue... At some point this spread running game will get to the slow, plodding Big 10 defenses. I think Michigan turns it around... let's say they win 8 of their next 10 games (includes next season).
Kansas State over Kansas... The Sunflower Showdown? Really? It's sad to say that no one is out of the Big 12 North picture... Remember, the 5-4 "division-leading" Wildcats have 2 wins over FCS schools (their other wins are Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Colorado). No one has been impressive in this division (3-9 against the South, with 2 wins against Baylor).
#2 Alabama over #11 LSU... This will be VERY low scoring, if there is no touchdowns, don't be surprised. But Alabama is just more polished.
#10 Oregon over Stanford... Remember, I like the Cardinal running game, but 600 yards on USC's defense? Come on.
#18 Southern Cal over Arizona State... Speaking of the USC defense, is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Trojans will be playing pissed this week??
#33 Oklahoma over Nebraksa... Speaking of unimpressive Big 12 North teams, I can't believe Mizzou lost to this Nebraksa team.
Last Week 8-2 (51 pts.)
Season: 63-27 (379 pts., 91st percentile)
Friday, October 30, 2009
NFL Week 8 Picks
I'm starting to track the readership of this blog. If you read this blog, please comment on it. Even if it's just a "hey, I like reading your blog", it's appreciated.
This week I'll use part of Guitar World's 100 Greatest Guitar Solos to make my picks.
Texans over Bills... "I Heard it Through the Grapevine"... not much longer for TO's time. I bet he's out of Buffalo soon if he does not start producing.
Bears over Browns... "Eruption"... After last week's massacre in Cincinnati, Bears fans are going to blow a gasket if the Browns beat the Bears.
Cowboys over Seahawks... "Texas Floods"... When it rains, it pours. The Cowboys got a big win last week, and now they draw a should-win to help keep pace in the NFC East.
Lions over Rams... "Yellow Ledbetter"... The lyrics to this song are very hard to understand. Why this game is being billed as an NFL game is much harder to understand.
Ravens over Broncos... "Working Man"... Kyle Orton is going to earn his salary this week if the Broncos win, but I don't think he's ever done that, so I took the Ravens.
Colts over 49ers... "Time"... It's only a matter of time before a lack of running game really starts to hurt the Niners. Not being able to keep Manning and Co. off the field will really hurt this week.
Dolphins over Jets... "Crossroads"... Both of these teams are at a crossroads. The winner is a contender and the loser has a long climb, unless the Patriots start to faulter.
Giants over Eagles... "Beat It"... I sick and tired of this New York versus Philly stuff. Football and baseball mean different things and the Phillies and Yankees aren't even in the same league/conference.
Jaguars over Titans... "While My Guitar Gently Weeps"... The Beatles brought in Eric Clapton for this one, but I don't think the Titans bringing in Vince Young of the bench can end this losing streak.
Chargers over Raiders... "Fade to Black"... Hit the lights on the Raiders, they are done. It was bad enough when they were just losing, now Jamarcus Russell is acting like a whiny punk. It's going to get worse.
Cardinals over Panthers... "One"... One person makes a difference in this game: Jake Delhomme. The less he throws the better chance the Panthers have... so, it's a slim chance.
Packers over Vikings... "Whippin' Post"... Favre and the Vikings defense tied the Packers to the whipping post in the last meeting. Now the shoe is on the other foot, or something.
Saints over Falcons... "Stairway to Heaven"... It's a long, strange trip to the top, their may be bumps in the road, but the Saints have figured out a great system and are looking like the favorites.
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 71-32
This week I'll use part of Guitar World's 100 Greatest Guitar Solos to make my picks.
Texans over Bills... "I Heard it Through the Grapevine"... not much longer for TO's time. I bet he's out of Buffalo soon if he does not start producing.
Bears over Browns... "Eruption"... After last week's massacre in Cincinnati, Bears fans are going to blow a gasket if the Browns beat the Bears.
Cowboys over Seahawks... "Texas Floods"... When it rains, it pours. The Cowboys got a big win last week, and now they draw a should-win to help keep pace in the NFC East.
Lions over Rams... "Yellow Ledbetter"... The lyrics to this song are very hard to understand. Why this game is being billed as an NFL game is much harder to understand.
Ravens over Broncos... "Working Man"... Kyle Orton is going to earn his salary this week if the Broncos win, but I don't think he's ever done that, so I took the Ravens.
Colts over 49ers... "Time"... It's only a matter of time before a lack of running game really starts to hurt the Niners. Not being able to keep Manning and Co. off the field will really hurt this week.
Dolphins over Jets... "Crossroads"... Both of these teams are at a crossroads. The winner is a contender and the loser has a long climb, unless the Patriots start to faulter.
Giants over Eagles... "Beat It"... I sick and tired of this New York versus Philly stuff. Football and baseball mean different things and the Phillies and Yankees aren't even in the same league/conference.
Jaguars over Titans... "While My Guitar Gently Weeps"... The Beatles brought in Eric Clapton for this one, but I don't think the Titans bringing in Vince Young of the bench can end this losing streak.
Chargers over Raiders... "Fade to Black"... Hit the lights on the Raiders, they are done. It was bad enough when they were just losing, now Jamarcus Russell is acting like a whiny punk. It's going to get worse.
Cardinals over Panthers... "One"... One person makes a difference in this game: Jake Delhomme. The less he throws the better chance the Panthers have... so, it's a slim chance.
Packers over Vikings... "Whippin' Post"... Favre and the Vikings defense tied the Packers to the whipping post in the last meeting. Now the shoe is on the other foot, or something.
Saints over Falcons... "Stairway to Heaven"... It's a long, strange trip to the top, their may be bumps in the road, but the Saints have figured out a great system and are looking like the favorites.
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 71-32
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Week 8 College Football
I'm starting to track the readership of this blog. If you read this blog, please comment on it. Even if it's just a "hey, I like reading your blog", it's appreciated.
1: Alabama (8-0)
2: Iowa (8-0)
3: Florida (7-0)
4: Texas (7-0)
5: Cincinnati (7-0)
6: Texas Christian (7-0)
7: Boise State (7-0)
8: Georgia Tech (7-1)
9: Pittsburgh (7-1)
10: Penn State (7-1)
11: Central Michigan (7-1)
12: Southern Cal (6-1)
13: Oregon (6-1)
14: Louisiana State (6-1)
15: West Virginia (6-1)
16: Oklahoma State (6-1)
17: Utah (6-1)
18: Houston (6-1)
19: South Carolina (6-2)
20: Ohio State (6-2)
21: Brigham Young (6-2)
21: Navy (6-2)
23: Virginia Tech (5-2)
23: Arizona (5-2)
25: Miami (FL) (5-2)
26: Notre Dame (5-2)
27: California (5-2)
28: Kansas (5-2)
29: Mississippi (5-2)
30: Wisconsin (5-2)
31: Texas Tech (5-3)
32: Oklahoma (4-3)
33: Clemson (4-3)
Honorable Mention: Idaho (6-2), South Florida (5-2), Rutgers (5-2), Temple (5-2), Troy (5-2).
This weeks picks:
#11 Central Michigan over Boston College... I'm calling for the upset of sorts. You better recognize the Chips, they should win the MAC easily.
Auburn over #29 Mississippi... another upset of sorts. The Tigers are almost ranked in my poll, they may have figured out their offensive slide.
#19 South Carolina over Tennessee... I know they played Alabama close, but they really blew that game, which should have been Alabama's loss.
#3 Florida over Georgia... I think they've learned their lesson and the Gators should not struggle again until the SEC Championship.
#27 California over Arizona State... not sure what was happening to the Bears earlier this year, but they are Holiday Bowl bound.
#13 Oregon over #12 Southern Cal... I think this Trojan team is a year away. That being said, Oregon will lose to Oregon State later on.
#25 Miami (FL) over Wake Forest... didn't Wake used to be competitive? That last play overtime loss to Clemson was the only reason I didn't go 10-0 last week.
#30 Wisconsin over Purdue... you're making me pick this game? Is there any doubt? Yeah, remember, Purdue dropped Ohio State.
#31 Texas Tech over #28 Kansas... Kansas is about to learn how Missouri feels, a three-game losing streak puts a serious damper on any championship talk.
#4 Texas over #16 Oklahoma State... my National Champ pick is looking pretty unstoppable, aren't they?
Last Week: 9-1 (49 pts.)
Season: 55-25 (328 pts., 89th percentile)
1: Alabama (8-0)
2: Iowa (8-0)
3: Florida (7-0)
4: Texas (7-0)
5: Cincinnati (7-0)
6: Texas Christian (7-0)
7: Boise State (7-0)
8: Georgia Tech (7-1)
9: Pittsburgh (7-1)
10: Penn State (7-1)
11: Central Michigan (7-1)
12: Southern Cal (6-1)
13: Oregon (6-1)
14: Louisiana State (6-1)
15: West Virginia (6-1)
16: Oklahoma State (6-1)
17: Utah (6-1)
18: Houston (6-1)
19: South Carolina (6-2)
20: Ohio State (6-2)
21: Brigham Young (6-2)
21: Navy (6-2)
23: Virginia Tech (5-2)
23: Arizona (5-2)
25: Miami (FL) (5-2)
26: Notre Dame (5-2)
27: California (5-2)
28: Kansas (5-2)
29: Mississippi (5-2)
30: Wisconsin (5-2)
31: Texas Tech (5-3)
32: Oklahoma (4-3)
33: Clemson (4-3)
Honorable Mention: Idaho (6-2), South Florida (5-2), Rutgers (5-2), Temple (5-2), Troy (5-2).
This weeks picks:
#11 Central Michigan over Boston College... I'm calling for the upset of sorts. You better recognize the Chips, they should win the MAC easily.
Auburn over #29 Mississippi... another upset of sorts. The Tigers are almost ranked in my poll, they may have figured out their offensive slide.
#19 South Carolina over Tennessee... I know they played Alabama close, but they really blew that game, which should have been Alabama's loss.
#3 Florida over Georgia... I think they've learned their lesson and the Gators should not struggle again until the SEC Championship.
#27 California over Arizona State... not sure what was happening to the Bears earlier this year, but they are Holiday Bowl bound.
#13 Oregon over #12 Southern Cal... I think this Trojan team is a year away. That being said, Oregon will lose to Oregon State later on.
#25 Miami (FL) over Wake Forest... didn't Wake used to be competitive? That last play overtime loss to Clemson was the only reason I didn't go 10-0 last week.
#30 Wisconsin over Purdue... you're making me pick this game? Is there any doubt? Yeah, remember, Purdue dropped Ohio State.
#31 Texas Tech over #28 Kansas... Kansas is about to learn how Missouri feels, a three-game losing streak puts a serious damper on any championship talk.
#4 Texas over #16 Oklahoma State... my National Champ pick is looking pretty unstoppable, aren't they?
Last Week: 9-1 (49 pts.)
Season: 55-25 (328 pts., 89th percentile)
Friday, October 23, 2009
NFL Week 7 Picks from Reality TV
I'm starting to track the readership of this blog. If you read this blog, please comment on it. Even if it's just a "hey, I like reading your blog", it's appreciated.
That being said, I'll be referencing reality shows to make the picks this week.
Packers over Browns... The Hills... what do the "cast" of The Hills and the "roster" of the Cleveland Browns have in common? The obvious answer is they are both terrible at their jobs and extremely unwatchable. The better answer is that certain members of each group would rather talk about others behind their back and explore a career in modeling and fashion. I'm looking at you Brady Quinn.
Chargers over Chiefs... Tool Academy... the winner of this game is still a tool, in that they are at least 3 games behind Denver and probably out of the playoff race.
Eagles over Redskins... Celebrity Fit Club... what happened to the Eagles last week? What happened to the Redskins last week? Seriously, was last week the bizzaro-NFL? These two teams need to get in shape... Andy Reid, too.
Giants over Cardinals... Rock of Love: Tour Bus... what's not to love about one of the longest road trips of the year. The winner is in first place in their respective divisions, but considering their divisions (like considering what the winner of Rock of Love gets: Brett Michaels), is that really winning??
Texans over 49ers... The Real World... Sure, the Niners are fighting for first place. Sure the Texans are still alive. But this is the real world, folks. The loser is probably done and the winner stays alive.
Colts over Rams... I Love Money... Picking the Colts is as easy as taking candy from a baby. Which, none of the contestants on this show would object to doing if it meant more exposure.
Steelers over Vikings... Extreme Makeover: Home Edition... if Favre gets anymore makeovers (as in team changes), he might become the first cyborg football player.
Patriots over Buccaneers... I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here (English Edition)... WHY DOES THE NFL INSIST ON PLAYING GAMES OUTSIDE OF THE U.S.???? Europeans (and everyone outside of North America) like soccer, rugby, and cricket much better. It's a ridiculous idea. Stop it. Just please stop.
Bills over Panthers... Survivor... the loser of this game probably loses any chance of making a desperate playoff run. The winner is still technically alive.
Jets over Raiders... The Amazing Race... it's a "race" for Mark Sanchez and Jamarcus Russell to see who can be the first to get a negative quarterback rating.
Bengals over Bears... America's Best Dance Crew... hey, Devin Hester, it's time to put up or shut up. The receiver formally known as Chad Johnson is challenging you to a touchdown celebration contest. Now the only question is will one of you actually score this week?
Falcons over Cowboys... The Bachelor... Yep, Tony Romo is single and looking for love. He's also looking for a chance to actually play like a quality NFL quarterback. This week will be a good opportunity to take notes from Matt Ryan, the REAL hunky quarterback.
Saints over Dolphins... The Cougar... that's what the Dolphins should call their Wildcat formation. It's getting old, but it's still sexy and interesting. And you never know what they'll do to score.
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 60-30
That being said, I'll be referencing reality shows to make the picks this week.
Packers over Browns... The Hills... what do the "cast" of The Hills and the "roster" of the Cleveland Browns have in common? The obvious answer is they are both terrible at their jobs and extremely unwatchable. The better answer is that certain members of each group would rather talk about others behind their back and explore a career in modeling and fashion. I'm looking at you Brady Quinn.
Chargers over Chiefs... Tool Academy... the winner of this game is still a tool, in that they are at least 3 games behind Denver and probably out of the playoff race.
Eagles over Redskins... Celebrity Fit Club... what happened to the Eagles last week? What happened to the Redskins last week? Seriously, was last week the bizzaro-NFL? These two teams need to get in shape... Andy Reid, too.
Giants over Cardinals... Rock of Love: Tour Bus... what's not to love about one of the longest road trips of the year. The winner is in first place in their respective divisions, but considering their divisions (like considering what the winner of Rock of Love gets: Brett Michaels), is that really winning??
Texans over 49ers... The Real World... Sure, the Niners are fighting for first place. Sure the Texans are still alive. But this is the real world, folks. The loser is probably done and the winner stays alive.
Colts over Rams... I Love Money... Picking the Colts is as easy as taking candy from a baby. Which, none of the contestants on this show would object to doing if it meant more exposure.
Steelers over Vikings... Extreme Makeover: Home Edition... if Favre gets anymore makeovers (as in team changes), he might become the first cyborg football player.
Patriots over Buccaneers... I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here (English Edition)... WHY DOES THE NFL INSIST ON PLAYING GAMES OUTSIDE OF THE U.S.???? Europeans (and everyone outside of North America) like soccer, rugby, and cricket much better. It's a ridiculous idea. Stop it. Just please stop.
Bills over Panthers... Survivor... the loser of this game probably loses any chance of making a desperate playoff run. The winner is still technically alive.
Jets over Raiders... The Amazing Race... it's a "race" for Mark Sanchez and Jamarcus Russell to see who can be the first to get a negative quarterback rating.
Bengals over Bears... America's Best Dance Crew... hey, Devin Hester, it's time to put up or shut up. The receiver formally known as Chad Johnson is challenging you to a touchdown celebration contest. Now the only question is will one of you actually score this week?
Falcons over Cowboys... The Bachelor... Yep, Tony Romo is single and looking for love. He's also looking for a chance to actually play like a quality NFL quarterback. This week will be a good opportunity to take notes from Matt Ryan, the REAL hunky quarterback.
Saints over Dolphins... The Cougar... that's what the Dolphins should call their Wildcat formation. It's getting old, but it's still sexy and interesting. And you never know what they'll do to score.
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 60-30
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Week 8 College Football
I'm starting to track the readership of this blog. If you read this blog, please comment on it. Even if it's just a "hey, I like reading your blog", it's appreciated. If you can, please suggest topics for me to discuss... anything goes. Here are the Week 8 Rankings:
1: Alabama (7-0)
2: Iowa (7-0)
3: Florida (6-0)
3: Texas (6-0)
5: Cincinnati (6-0)
6: Texas Christian (6-0)
7: Boise State (6-0)
8: Georgia Tech (6-1)
9: Pittsburgh (6-1)
10: Penn State (6-1)
11: Brigham Young (6-1)
12: Central Michigan (6-1)
13: Idaho (6-1)
14: Southern Cal (5-1)
15: Oregon (5-1)
16: Miami (FL) (5-1)
17: Louisiana State (5-1)
18: Oklahoma State (5-1)
19: West Virginia (5-1)
19: Kansas (5-1)
21: South Florida (5-1)
22: Utah (5-1)
23: Houston (5-1)
24: Virginia Tech (5-2)
25: Ohio State (5-2)
26: South Carolina (5-2)
27: Texas Tech (5-2)
28: Boston College (5-2)
29: Auburn (5-2)
30: Michigan (5-2)
31: Wisconsin (5-2)
32: Notre Dame (4-2)
33: Arizona (4-2)
34: Oregon State (4-2)
35: California (4-2)
36: Nebraska (4-2)
37: Mississippi (4-2)
38: Missouri (4-2)
39: Oklahoma (3-3)
40: Arkansas (3-3)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (5-2), Navy (5-2), Connecticut (4-2), Rutgers (4-2), Temple (4-2), Troy (4-2), Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2).
This weeks games are quite difficult to pick (as usual) so I'm going to use a BCS conspiracy spin on all these (least confident first):
#6 Texas Christian over #11 Brigham Young... game of the week for sure, and I bet you're thinking the BCS conspiracy would have BYU winning. You're wrong. The BCS is okay with a non-auto qualifying school in one of their games. They only want 1 of them, and they are actually looking forward to the controversy of an undefeated Boise State team getting jumped by an undefeated and more deserving TCU team.
#2 Iowa over Michigan State... the BCS would love to see an undefeated Big 10 team in Pasadena whether it be for the Rose Bowl or the Championship.
#15 Oregon over Washington... the BCS needs USC's upcoming opponents to stay strong so USC's strength of schedule goes way up (even though it's top 10 already) and they are a solid lock for the Rose Bowl.
#10 Penn State over #30 Michigan... Let's say Iowa goes undefeated. They might be in the Championship. So, the BCS needs the other Big 10 school to be more traditional. None of this spread offense crap in the Rose Bowl, damn it!
#39 Oklahoma over #19 Kansas... the BCS needs Oklahoma to do win. Heaven forbid a Big 12 North team actually earn a spot in one of their games (Kansas' '07 Orange Bowl was a FLUKE!). Also, we need to be shown why Kansas cannot and will not win more than 7 games every year... because 2 out of 4 years they play the murders row of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. The same goes for Iowa State (but on opposite years).
#16 Miami (FL) over Clemson... the BCS needs the return of the U. And they would not mind two legitamate ACC teams (include either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech).
#9 Pittsburgh over #21 South Florida... the BCS can't have the Big East playing round robin upset time all season, someone needs to stand out for several weeks. They'll make sure it comes down to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
#17 Louisiana State over #29 Auburn... beyond the night game in Baton Rouge, the BCS like the idea of strongly considering breaking their 2 teams per conference rule... why not surprise everyone by letting LSU in with Alabama and Florida.
#8 Georgia Tech over Virginia... Virginia's been coming on, but a BCS triple option team? What better way to show how out of date the BCS is? (NOTE: I love the triple option, and I picked Georgia Tech to win the ACC so this not a problem for me.)
#3 Texas over #38 Missouri... my heart is telling me to pick the upset, there is no way the Tigers start 0-3 in the conference. Unfortunately, I cannot justify that pick rationally, I cannot remember when we actually beat Texas (ever), and the BCS (and the Big 12) need Texas to cruise into the title game to make up for last year's ridiculousness.
Last Week: 7-3 (44 pts.)
Season: 46-24 (279 pts., 85th percentile)
1: Alabama (7-0)
2: Iowa (7-0)
3: Florida (6-0)
3: Texas (6-0)
5: Cincinnati (6-0)
6: Texas Christian (6-0)
7: Boise State (6-0)
8: Georgia Tech (6-1)
9: Pittsburgh (6-1)
10: Penn State (6-1)
11: Brigham Young (6-1)
12: Central Michigan (6-1)
13: Idaho (6-1)
14: Southern Cal (5-1)
15: Oregon (5-1)
16: Miami (FL) (5-1)
17: Louisiana State (5-1)
18: Oklahoma State (5-1)
19: West Virginia (5-1)
19: Kansas (5-1)
21: South Florida (5-1)
22: Utah (5-1)
23: Houston (5-1)
24: Virginia Tech (5-2)
25: Ohio State (5-2)
26: South Carolina (5-2)
27: Texas Tech (5-2)
28: Boston College (5-2)
29: Auburn (5-2)
30: Michigan (5-2)
31: Wisconsin (5-2)
32: Notre Dame (4-2)
33: Arizona (4-2)
34: Oregon State (4-2)
35: California (4-2)
36: Nebraska (4-2)
37: Mississippi (4-2)
38: Missouri (4-2)
39: Oklahoma (3-3)
40: Arkansas (3-3)
Honorable Mention: Ohio (5-2), Navy (5-2), Connecticut (4-2), Rutgers (4-2), Temple (4-2), Troy (4-2), Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2).
This weeks games are quite difficult to pick (as usual) so I'm going to use a BCS conspiracy spin on all these (least confident first):
#6 Texas Christian over #11 Brigham Young... game of the week for sure, and I bet you're thinking the BCS conspiracy would have BYU winning. You're wrong. The BCS is okay with a non-auto qualifying school in one of their games. They only want 1 of them, and they are actually looking forward to the controversy of an undefeated Boise State team getting jumped by an undefeated and more deserving TCU team.
#2 Iowa over Michigan State... the BCS would love to see an undefeated Big 10 team in Pasadena whether it be for the Rose Bowl or the Championship.
#15 Oregon over Washington... the BCS needs USC's upcoming opponents to stay strong so USC's strength of schedule goes way up (even though it's top 10 already) and they are a solid lock for the Rose Bowl.
#10 Penn State over #30 Michigan... Let's say Iowa goes undefeated. They might be in the Championship. So, the BCS needs the other Big 10 school to be more traditional. None of this spread offense crap in the Rose Bowl, damn it!
#39 Oklahoma over #19 Kansas... the BCS needs Oklahoma to do win. Heaven forbid a Big 12 North team actually earn a spot in one of their games (Kansas' '07 Orange Bowl was a FLUKE!). Also, we need to be shown why Kansas cannot and will not win more than 7 games every year... because 2 out of 4 years they play the murders row of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. The same goes for Iowa State (but on opposite years).
#16 Miami (FL) over Clemson... the BCS needs the return of the U. And they would not mind two legitamate ACC teams (include either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech).
#9 Pittsburgh over #21 South Florida... the BCS can't have the Big East playing round robin upset time all season, someone needs to stand out for several weeks. They'll make sure it comes down to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
#17 Louisiana State over #29 Auburn... beyond the night game in Baton Rouge, the BCS like the idea of strongly considering breaking their 2 teams per conference rule... why not surprise everyone by letting LSU in with Alabama and Florida.
#8 Georgia Tech over Virginia... Virginia's been coming on, but a BCS triple option team? What better way to show how out of date the BCS is? (NOTE: I love the triple option, and I picked Georgia Tech to win the ACC so this not a problem for me.)
#3 Texas over #38 Missouri... my heart is telling me to pick the upset, there is no way the Tigers start 0-3 in the conference. Unfortunately, I cannot justify that pick rationally, I cannot remember when we actually beat Texas (ever), and the BCS (and the Big 12) need Texas to cruise into the title game to make up for last year's ridiculousness.
Last Week: 7-3 (44 pts.)
Season: 46-24 (279 pts., 85th percentile)
Saturday, October 17, 2009
NFL Week 6 Picks
Last week was my bad, got busy and could not come up with a decent theme. Last week I picked Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Minnesota, Philadelphia, both New Yorks, Washington, Baltimore, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Arizona, Denver and Indianapolis.
This week is a black and white week. By that I mean there are clear cut, easy picks, and then there are picks I have no idea which way they will go.
The clear cuts picks first:
Patriots over Titans... everyone keeps wondering when the Titans will turn it around and get back in the playoff race. I think it could happen... but definitely not this week.
Jets over Bills... I'm just waiting for the T.O. drama and bitching to start, after another embarrassing loss either he goes nuts or his coach gets fired.
Eagles over Raiders... Is Jamarcus Russell alive? He seems so disinterested in every game. How do the Raiders expect to win this guy?
Steelers over Browns... Well, I guess I could pick the team whose starting quarterback's QB rating will be lower than the temperature in Pittsburgh... considering he did actually win last week? NO. Never.
Packers over Lions... This Packers team is better than their record. Two loses to teams that are now 9-1 combined. Now they are at home against a team that is 1-20 since last August? I'll take them.
Redskins over Chiefs... So my uncle said there is no way the Chiefs can go 0-16. Oh, I beg to differ. Last week's heartbreaker was the catalyst they were looking for.
Bengals over Texans... The cardiac Cats should win by more than one score this week.
Now the toss ups:
Broncos over Chargers... only taking the Broncos because they haven't lost yet. Although this could be a let down game.
Falcons over Bears... home team wins, that's all.
Vikings over Ravens... Favre at home, that's all.
Panthers over Buccaneers... the team with the ONE win gets to keep winning.
Seahawks over Cardinals... Did you know that win the Seahawks hold their opponent scoreless, they win?
Jaguars over Rams... Instead of kicking Rush Limbaugh off the proposed buyer's list, sign him up to play d-line. Maybe he can play run defense.
Giants over Saints... I'll take the team with more experience winning and the better defense.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 52-24
This week is a black and white week. By that I mean there are clear cut, easy picks, and then there are picks I have no idea which way they will go.
The clear cuts picks first:
Patriots over Titans... everyone keeps wondering when the Titans will turn it around and get back in the playoff race. I think it could happen... but definitely not this week.
Jets over Bills... I'm just waiting for the T.O. drama and bitching to start, after another embarrassing loss either he goes nuts or his coach gets fired.
Eagles over Raiders... Is Jamarcus Russell alive? He seems so disinterested in every game. How do the Raiders expect to win this guy?
Steelers over Browns... Well, I guess I could pick the team whose starting quarterback's QB rating will be lower than the temperature in Pittsburgh... considering he did actually win last week? NO. Never.
Packers over Lions... This Packers team is better than their record. Two loses to teams that are now 9-1 combined. Now they are at home against a team that is 1-20 since last August? I'll take them.
Redskins over Chiefs... So my uncle said there is no way the Chiefs can go 0-16. Oh, I beg to differ. Last week's heartbreaker was the catalyst they were looking for.
Bengals over Texans... The cardiac Cats should win by more than one score this week.
Now the toss ups:
Broncos over Chargers... only taking the Broncos because they haven't lost yet. Although this could be a let down game.
Falcons over Bears... home team wins, that's all.
Vikings over Ravens... Favre at home, that's all.
Panthers over Buccaneers... the team with the ONE win gets to keep winning.
Seahawks over Cardinals... Did you know that win the Seahawks hold their opponent scoreless, they win?
Jaguars over Rams... Instead of kicking Rush Limbaugh off the proposed buyer's list, sign him up to play d-line. Maybe he can play run defense.
Giants over Saints... I'll take the team with more experience winning and the better defense.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 52-24
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Week 7 College Football
I totally blew posting my NFL picks last week, my bad. More on that in the next post. Here are the ranks for this week (last night's Boise St. vs. Tulsa game is not considered). Lots of 4-2 teams not getting votes in both polls, so lots of honorable mention.
1: Alabama (6-0)
2: Iowa (6-0)
3: Texas (5-0)
4: Florida (5-0)
5: Cincinnati (5-0)
6: Kansas (5-0)
7: South Florida (5-0)
8: Texas Christian (5-0)
9: Boise State (5-0)
10: Virginia Tech (5-1)
11: Oregon (5-1)
12: Ohio State (5-1)
13: Louisiana State (5-1)
14: South Carolina (5-1)
15: Georgia Tech (5-1)
16: Penn State (5-1)
17: Pittsburgh (5-1)
18: Auburn (5-1)
19: Wisconsin (5-1)
20: Brigham Young (5-1)
21: Central Michigan (5-1)
22: Southern Cal (4-1)
23: Miami (FL) (4-1)
24: Notre Dame (4-1)
25: Nebraska (4-1)
26: Oklahoma State (4-1)
27: West Virginia (4-1)
28: Missouri (4-1)
29: Utah (4-1)
30: Houston (4-1)
31: Stanford (4-2)
32: Oregon State (4-2)
33: Michigan (4-2)
34: Oklahoma (3-2)
35: Arkansas (3-2)
36: Mississippi (3-2)
Honorable Mention: Idaho (5-1), Tulsa (4-1), Rutgers (4-1), Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Wyoming (4-2), Marshall (4-2), Navy (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Northwestern (4-2), Texas Tech (4-2), Boston College (4-2), Wake Forest (4-2), North Carolina (4-2).
This weeks picks, by order of confidence (least first), with why the team WILL win and how they COULD lose...
#22 USC over #24 Notre Dame... USC will win because of the emotional lift of Stefon Johnson getting out of the hospital and their defense. They could lose if Jimmy Clausen is perfect and the Irish can stop the run.
UCLA over Cal... The Bruins will win because they are at home and they've stopped the run well so far. They could lose if the Bears play like they should have all season, like a Rose Bowl caliber team.
Boston College over NC State... BC will win because they aren't reeling from a loss at home to Duke (like the Wolfpack is). They could lose if they don't respect a decent NC State team.
#25 Nebraska over Texas Tech... The Huskers will win with defense and a balanced attack, they'll use the emotion of the comeback last week. They could lose if they don't have any emotion left, and suffer the let down.
#10 Virginia Tech over #15 Georgia Tech... The Hokies will win because they play solid defense and won't be fooled with the triple option. They could lose if their gameplan guesses wrong and Georgia Tech manages to throw the ball well.
#2 Iowa over #19 Wisconsin... The Hawkeyes will win with mistake-free football and an aggressive, balanced attack. They could lose because the let down is coming, sooner or later, and on the road against a good team is a good time.
#16 Penn State over Minnesota... Penn State will win because they shouldn't lose at home to a mediocre conference opponent and they've learned their lesson from the Iowa game. They could lose if the Gophers play like they did against Cal, but hold on this time.
#3 Texas over #34 Oklahoma... Texas wins because they are more balanced, can protect their quarterback, and are still harboring feelings from last year. They could lose if Sam Bradford and his offensive line play out of their minds and prove that big, pocket quarterbacks are still the better prospect.
#26 Oklahoma State over #28 Missouri... The Cowboys will win with their smarter, more balanced spread offense that can run the ball. Plus, they proved they could stop the Tiger's spread last year. They could lose if Missouri figures out how to run the ball and remembers last years devistation, and that they are staring an 0-3 Big 12 start in the face.
#1 Alabama over #14 South Carolina... Alabama will win because they are probably the best-coached and most dynamic team right now and the Gamecocks have looked weak offensively. They could lose if the pressure gets to the first-year quarterback and South Carolina's offense explodes.
Last Week: 7-3 (43 pts.)
Season: 39-21 (235 pts., 84th percentile)
1: Alabama (6-0)
2: Iowa (6-0)
3: Texas (5-0)
4: Florida (5-0)
5: Cincinnati (5-0)
6: Kansas (5-0)
7: South Florida (5-0)
8: Texas Christian (5-0)
9: Boise State (5-0)
10: Virginia Tech (5-1)
11: Oregon (5-1)
12: Ohio State (5-1)
13: Louisiana State (5-1)
14: South Carolina (5-1)
15: Georgia Tech (5-1)
16: Penn State (5-1)
17: Pittsburgh (5-1)
18: Auburn (5-1)
19: Wisconsin (5-1)
20: Brigham Young (5-1)
21: Central Michigan (5-1)
22: Southern Cal (4-1)
23: Miami (FL) (4-1)
24: Notre Dame (4-1)
25: Nebraska (4-1)
26: Oklahoma State (4-1)
27: West Virginia (4-1)
28: Missouri (4-1)
29: Utah (4-1)
30: Houston (4-1)
31: Stanford (4-2)
32: Oregon State (4-2)
33: Michigan (4-2)
34: Oklahoma (3-2)
35: Arkansas (3-2)
36: Mississippi (3-2)
Honorable Mention: Idaho (5-1), Tulsa (4-1), Rutgers (4-1), Louisiana-Monroe (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Wyoming (4-2), Marshall (4-2), Navy (4-2), Ohio (4-2), Northwestern (4-2), Texas Tech (4-2), Boston College (4-2), Wake Forest (4-2), North Carolina (4-2).
This weeks picks, by order of confidence (least first), with why the team WILL win and how they COULD lose...
#22 USC over #24 Notre Dame... USC will win because of the emotional lift of Stefon Johnson getting out of the hospital and their defense. They could lose if Jimmy Clausen is perfect and the Irish can stop the run.
UCLA over Cal... The Bruins will win because they are at home and they've stopped the run well so far. They could lose if the Bears play like they should have all season, like a Rose Bowl caliber team.
Boston College over NC State... BC will win because they aren't reeling from a loss at home to Duke (like the Wolfpack is). They could lose if they don't respect a decent NC State team.
#25 Nebraska over Texas Tech... The Huskers will win with defense and a balanced attack, they'll use the emotion of the comeback last week. They could lose if they don't have any emotion left, and suffer the let down.
#10 Virginia Tech over #15 Georgia Tech... The Hokies will win because they play solid defense and won't be fooled with the triple option. They could lose if their gameplan guesses wrong and Georgia Tech manages to throw the ball well.
#2 Iowa over #19 Wisconsin... The Hawkeyes will win with mistake-free football and an aggressive, balanced attack. They could lose because the let down is coming, sooner or later, and on the road against a good team is a good time.
#16 Penn State over Minnesota... Penn State will win because they shouldn't lose at home to a mediocre conference opponent and they've learned their lesson from the Iowa game. They could lose if the Gophers play like they did against Cal, but hold on this time.
#3 Texas over #34 Oklahoma... Texas wins because they are more balanced, can protect their quarterback, and are still harboring feelings from last year. They could lose if Sam Bradford and his offensive line play out of their minds and prove that big, pocket quarterbacks are still the better prospect.
#26 Oklahoma State over #28 Missouri... The Cowboys will win with their smarter, more balanced spread offense that can run the ball. Plus, they proved they could stop the Tiger's spread last year. They could lose if Missouri figures out how to run the ball and remembers last years devistation, and that they are staring an 0-3 Big 12 start in the face.
#1 Alabama over #14 South Carolina... Alabama will win because they are probably the best-coached and most dynamic team right now and the Gamecocks have looked weak offensively. They could lose if the pressure gets to the first-year quarterback and South Carolina's offense explodes.
Last Week: 7-3 (43 pts.)
Season: 39-21 (235 pts., 84th percentile)
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Week 6 College Football
This week I will unveil my rankings. As I don't believe in the preseason rankings, nor the early week rankings of trying to decide which of the 50+ 2-0 teams are the best, I've waited until after week 5 for my rankings. If you remember from last year, I consider any team receiving votes in BOTH the AP and USA Today polls. Then take the average of their ranks, including their Strength of Schedule, and the best average rank with the best record is higher. I will take all arguments, bring 'em on.
1: Louisiana State (5-0)
2: Alabama (5-0)
3: Iowa (5-0)
4: Cincinnati (5-0)
5: Auburn (5-0)
6: Wisconsin (5-0)
7: South Florida (5-0)
8: Boise State (5-0)
9: Florida (4-0)
10: Texas (4-0)
11: Kansas (4-0)
12: Missouri (4-0)
13: Texas Christian (4-0)
14: Southern Cal (4-1)
15: Virginia Tech (4-1)
16: Oregon (4-1)
17: Ohio State (4-1)
18: Stanford (4-1)
19: Notre Dame (4-1)
20: Georgia Tech (4-1)
21: South Carolina (4-1)
22: Penn State (4-1)
23: Boston College (4-1)
24: Michigan (4-1)
25: Pittsburgh (4-1)
26: Brigham Young (4-1)
27: Miami (FL) (3-1)
28: Arizona (3-1)
29: Nebraska (3-1)
30: Oklahoma State (3-1)
31: Mississippi (3-1)
32: West Virginia (3-1)
33: Utah (3-1)
34: Houston (3-1)
35: Georgia (3-2)
36: Oklahoma (2-2)
Honorable Mention: Tulsa (4-1), Central Michigan (4-1), Idaho (4-1)
It's early, so this is very fluid and WILL change. Remember, #10 Texas was my preseason favorite. For this week, Mizzou will win if the offensive line can open some holes, which has been difficult this season. Here are the rest of the ESPN picks in reserve confidence order.
- #35 Georgia over Tennessee... I'm taking the Dawgs based on the strength of their wins and the performances in their loses.
- #20 Georgia Tech over Florida State... The 'Noles are pretty bipolar, remember they beat Jacksonville State by 2. As long as the option is working, the Jackets are hard to stop.
- #1 LSU over #9 Florida... even if Tebow plays. This was I game I had circled as a tripping place for the champs and if Tebow is not 100%, they will trip.
- #3 Iowa over #24 Michigan... it's a home game for a team that survived their let-down last week. Michigan has some issues to iron out, especially against good run defenses.
- Minnesota over Purdue... why am I having to pick this game? Purdue hasn't beaten anyone good, and Minnesota struggled against Syracuse, and they're quarterbacked by a point guard!
- #16 Oregon over UCLA... the Bruins have some good wins and are at home, but I'm backing the "No one gave us a chance (after week 1) to win" Ducks.
- #17 Ohio State over #6 Wisconsin... I know I put them their, but I think the Badgers are slightly overrated. The Buckeyes have more talent and are at home.
- #5 Auburn over Arkansas... no defense for the Hogs means they can't stop the new Tiger offense.
- #2 Alabama over #31 Mississippi... we all saw what happened to the Rebels against South Carolina, do you think they will play better against the Tide?
- #10 Texas over Colorado... since Coach Hawkins will miss his promise to win 10 games (unless they win out, with a bowl win) do you think the team will quit on him facing a daunting task in Austin?
Last Week: 5-5 (35 pts.)
Season: 32-18 (192 pts., 81st percentile)
1: Louisiana State (5-0)
2: Alabama (5-0)
3: Iowa (5-0)
4: Cincinnati (5-0)
5: Auburn (5-0)
6: Wisconsin (5-0)
7: South Florida (5-0)
8: Boise State (5-0)
9: Florida (4-0)
10: Texas (4-0)
11: Kansas (4-0)
12: Missouri (4-0)
13: Texas Christian (4-0)
14: Southern Cal (4-1)
15: Virginia Tech (4-1)
16: Oregon (4-1)
17: Ohio State (4-1)
18: Stanford (4-1)
19: Notre Dame (4-1)
20: Georgia Tech (4-1)
21: South Carolina (4-1)
22: Penn State (4-1)
23: Boston College (4-1)
24: Michigan (4-1)
25: Pittsburgh (4-1)
26: Brigham Young (4-1)
27: Miami (FL) (3-1)
28: Arizona (3-1)
29: Nebraska (3-1)
30: Oklahoma State (3-1)
31: Mississippi (3-1)
32: West Virginia (3-1)
33: Utah (3-1)
34: Houston (3-1)
35: Georgia (3-2)
36: Oklahoma (2-2)
Honorable Mention: Tulsa (4-1), Central Michigan (4-1), Idaho (4-1)
It's early, so this is very fluid and WILL change. Remember, #10 Texas was my preseason favorite. For this week, Mizzou will win if the offensive line can open some holes, which has been difficult this season. Here are the rest of the ESPN picks in reserve confidence order.
- #35 Georgia over Tennessee... I'm taking the Dawgs based on the strength of their wins and the performances in their loses.
- #20 Georgia Tech over Florida State... The 'Noles are pretty bipolar, remember they beat Jacksonville State by 2. As long as the option is working, the Jackets are hard to stop.
- #1 LSU over #9 Florida... even if Tebow plays. This was I game I had circled as a tripping place for the champs and if Tebow is not 100%, they will trip.
- #3 Iowa over #24 Michigan... it's a home game for a team that survived their let-down last week. Michigan has some issues to iron out, especially against good run defenses.
- Minnesota over Purdue... why am I having to pick this game? Purdue hasn't beaten anyone good, and Minnesota struggled against Syracuse, and they're quarterbacked by a point guard!
- #16 Oregon over UCLA... the Bruins have some good wins and are at home, but I'm backing the "No one gave us a chance (after week 1) to win" Ducks.
- #17 Ohio State over #6 Wisconsin... I know I put them their, but I think the Badgers are slightly overrated. The Buckeyes have more talent and are at home.
- #5 Auburn over Arkansas... no defense for the Hogs means they can't stop the new Tiger offense.
- #2 Alabama over #31 Mississippi... we all saw what happened to the Rebels against South Carolina, do you think they will play better against the Tide?
- #10 Texas over Colorado... since Coach Hawkins will miss his promise to win 10 games (unless they win out, with a bowl win) do you think the team will quit on him facing a daunting task in Austin?
Last Week: 5-5 (35 pts.)
Season: 32-18 (192 pts., 81st percentile)
Sunday, October 4, 2009
NFL Week 4 Picks from Lewis Black
I cannot pretend that my favorite comedian actually watches the NFL. Knowing how he feels about most popular things, he'd probably find a way to make fun of it. Also, I did not consult him for a quote for each game, just found ones I liked and used them here. Have fun!
Steelers over Chargers - "Let's face it, Americans are fat all year round, but the holidays are when we really hit our stride. And you can bet the food we eat will be just as unhealthy as the families we're forced to visit." The Chargers haven't lost a game in December under Norv Turner. Unfortunately they haven't won one in January... and the other months don't treat them that well either.
Bengals over Browns - "MTV is to music as KFC is to chicken!" ... as the Browns are to football.
Titans over Jaguars - "It’s absolutely stupid that we live without an ozone layer. We have men, we’ve got rockets, we’ve got saran wrap – FIX IT!!!" It's really perplexing that the Titans are 0-3. What happened to the best team in the AFC from last year?
Colts over Seahawks - "When from behind me, a young woman of 25 uttered the following, it was the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life until Dan Quayle was elected Vice President of the United States. She said, 'if it weren't for my horse, I wouldn't have spent that year in college.'" I'm not sure which is more confusing, the Seahawks' offensive gameplans, or their day-glow green jerseys.
Cowboys over Broncos - "What is the difference between a Democrat and a Republican? A Democrat blows, a Republican sucks." It's the same as the difference between the Cowboys and the Broncos.
Bear over Lions - "Thanksgiving used to be Thanksgiving, and it was its own holiday, not Christmas: Part 1. When I was a kid, you ate, and you drank, and you passed out and nobody woke you up and said, 'Let's go shopping.'" Didn't this game used to be on Thanksgiving? Why do I have to be subjected to this without turkey and stuffing?
Giants over Chiefs - "Some people have religion as a means of solace. But, I had a dreidel, so that was out." See, I'm a Chiefs fan, which, right now, means I don't care very much about the NFL.
Patriots over Ravens - "A week ago today, the northeast experienced the biggest blackout in history. And since then, everyone's been sharing their stories of how they got through the blackout. And I'd just like to say to them: SHUT UP!" Yeah, shut up, Patriots fans! Just 'cause you missed the playoffs last year and haven't looked good yet, it's no reason to panic.
Buccaneers over Redskins - "Then of course, there's Dennis Kozlowski. He took from his company 463 million dollars because, well, he had to buy shit. Are you kiddin' me? He gets on the phone: I'd like all the corn in Iowa... 'Cause I'm having a ho-down.'" Basically, Dan Synder is better off spending his money on corn than on this football team.
Dolphins over Bills - "And then there's the Homeland Security system, they had it colour-coded, like we're in fucking elementery school! Simplify it, there should be just three levels of security; Jesus Christ, Goddammit, FUCK ME!" Really, Miami needs to be more simple on offense. Don't force yourselves to run X number of Wildcat plays every game.
Texans over Raiders - "I'm always amazed when I hear people saying; 'That George Bush, he's a great leader.' And I wonder, where can one find a drug that would make one so delusional?" Really, Al Davis is still in charge of an NFL Franchise? They let zombies have positions of authority?
Vikings over Packers - "These ballot initiatives remind us that America is the land where people are free to dream whatever they want, so long as that dream doesn't make Midwesterners feel icky!" Hey, Packers fans, don't try to kill Brett Favre after Monday night's loss. It's not his fault you can't stop the run.
Jets over Saints - "Americans continue to rapidly homogenize ourselves into a neutered oblivion. For a country founded on the protection of the unique, we relish our sameness." This one is dedicated to NFL parity. Only in the NFL could we have a possible Super Bowl preview in week 4 between the Jets and the Saints. Am I dead? Is this hell?
49ers over Rams - "If the people of New Zealand want to be a part of our world, I believe they should hop off their islands and push them closer." Really, if the Rams want to be an NFL team, they need to start playing like one. At least figure out why your offense went from "best ever" to "what offense?"
Last week: 13-3
Season: 34-14 (87th percentile)
Steelers over Chargers - "Let's face it, Americans are fat all year round, but the holidays are when we really hit our stride. And you can bet the food we eat will be just as unhealthy as the families we're forced to visit." The Chargers haven't lost a game in December under Norv Turner. Unfortunately they haven't won one in January... and the other months don't treat them that well either.
Bengals over Browns - "MTV is to music as KFC is to chicken!" ... as the Browns are to football.
Titans over Jaguars - "It’s absolutely stupid that we live without an ozone layer. We have men, we’ve got rockets, we’ve got saran wrap – FIX IT!!!" It's really perplexing that the Titans are 0-3. What happened to the best team in the AFC from last year?
Colts over Seahawks - "When from behind me, a young woman of 25 uttered the following, it was the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life until Dan Quayle was elected Vice President of the United States. She said, 'if it weren't for my horse, I wouldn't have spent that year in college.'" I'm not sure which is more confusing, the Seahawks' offensive gameplans, or their day-glow green jerseys.
Cowboys over Broncos - "What is the difference between a Democrat and a Republican? A Democrat blows, a Republican sucks." It's the same as the difference between the Cowboys and the Broncos.
Bear over Lions - "Thanksgiving used to be Thanksgiving, and it was its own holiday, not Christmas: Part 1. When I was a kid, you ate, and you drank, and you passed out and nobody woke you up and said, 'Let's go shopping.'" Didn't this game used to be on Thanksgiving? Why do I have to be subjected to this without turkey and stuffing?
Giants over Chiefs - "Some people have religion as a means of solace. But, I had a dreidel, so that was out." See, I'm a Chiefs fan, which, right now, means I don't care very much about the NFL.
Patriots over Ravens - "A week ago today, the northeast experienced the biggest blackout in history. And since then, everyone's been sharing their stories of how they got through the blackout. And I'd just like to say to them: SHUT UP!" Yeah, shut up, Patriots fans! Just 'cause you missed the playoffs last year and haven't looked good yet, it's no reason to panic.
Buccaneers over Redskins - "Then of course, there's Dennis Kozlowski. He took from his company 463 million dollars because, well, he had to buy shit. Are you kiddin' me? He gets on the phone: I'd like all the corn in Iowa... 'Cause I'm having a ho-down.'" Basically, Dan Synder is better off spending his money on corn than on this football team.
Dolphins over Bills - "And then there's the Homeland Security system, they had it colour-coded, like we're in fucking elementery school! Simplify it, there should be just three levels of security; Jesus Christ, Goddammit, FUCK ME!" Really, Miami needs to be more simple on offense. Don't force yourselves to run X number of Wildcat plays every game.
Texans over Raiders - "I'm always amazed when I hear people saying; 'That George Bush, he's a great leader.' And I wonder, where can one find a drug that would make one so delusional?" Really, Al Davis is still in charge of an NFL Franchise? They let zombies have positions of authority?
Vikings over Packers - "These ballot initiatives remind us that America is the land where people are free to dream whatever they want, so long as that dream doesn't make Midwesterners feel icky!" Hey, Packers fans, don't try to kill Brett Favre after Monday night's loss. It's not his fault you can't stop the run.
Jets over Saints - "Americans continue to rapidly homogenize ourselves into a neutered oblivion. For a country founded on the protection of the unique, we relish our sameness." This one is dedicated to NFL parity. Only in the NFL could we have a possible Super Bowl preview in week 4 between the Jets and the Saints. Am I dead? Is this hell?
49ers over Rams - "If the people of New Zealand want to be a part of our world, I believe they should hop off their islands and push them closer." Really, if the Rams want to be an NFL team, they need to start playing like one. At least figure out why your offense went from "best ever" to "what offense?"
Last week: 13-3
Season: 34-14 (87th percentile)
Thursday, October 1, 2009
College Picks Week 5
Last week did not go well at all. I must admit I was busy with other things, like my dad being in town for his birthday, and my picks were slightly haphazard. Penn State and Cal really let me down and I turned on Houston and Georgia Tech and they made me pay for it. This week, I will not stray too far from my original thoughts.
Tennessee over Auburn... entirely a home-field advantage call here. The Vols do have a good pass defense that could frustrate an untested Auburn offense.
Georgia over LSU... again, the home team who is riding some good momentum is the pick here. Georgia played well against OSU and just was not quite ready for their response.
UCLA over Stanford... don't get me wrong, I like Toby Gerhardt and Stanford. I just think they're a year away from contending. Where as UCLA has played like the #4 Pac-10 team should.
USC over California... the Bears got destroyed last week and let Oregon into the Pac-10 driver's seat. I expect with Matt Barkley back, they Trojans will start playing like contenders again.
Wisconsin over Minnesota... the Badgers have played well, the Gophers needed overtime to beat Syracuse. I'll lean towards the Badgers.
Oklahoma over Miami... I think we saw what happens when Miami plays a strong, consistent defense last week. Oklahoma probably has a better defense than Virginia Tech.
Arkansas over Texas A&M... I guess sense Tech and OSU got knocked down (by the same Houston team) people think that the Big 12 South needs a third dominating team. They don't, and A&M wouldn't be that team anyway.
Michigan over Michigan State... I think we've learned a lot about these teams so far and their records should exactly where they should be.
Notre Dame over Washington... I said last week that any team that loses 15 straight can't turn it around with 2 wins, even if one's over USC. Here comes the Irish freight train to make it 2-16 in the last 18.
Penn State over Illinois... Missouri put in some doubt and Ohio State proved it, Illinois (and their stars) are overrated. That Rose Bowl was a fluke. Penn State will be angry and taking it out on the Juice.
Last Week: 5-5 (25 pts.)
Season: 27-13 (157 pts., 83rd percentile)
Tennessee over Auburn... entirely a home-field advantage call here. The Vols do have a good pass defense that could frustrate an untested Auburn offense.
Georgia over LSU... again, the home team who is riding some good momentum is the pick here. Georgia played well against OSU and just was not quite ready for their response.
UCLA over Stanford... don't get me wrong, I like Toby Gerhardt and Stanford. I just think they're a year away from contending. Where as UCLA has played like the #4 Pac-10 team should.
USC over California... the Bears got destroyed last week and let Oregon into the Pac-10 driver's seat. I expect with Matt Barkley back, they Trojans will start playing like contenders again.
Wisconsin over Minnesota... the Badgers have played well, the Gophers needed overtime to beat Syracuse. I'll lean towards the Badgers.
Oklahoma over Miami... I think we saw what happens when Miami plays a strong, consistent defense last week. Oklahoma probably has a better defense than Virginia Tech.
Arkansas over Texas A&M... I guess sense Tech and OSU got knocked down (by the same Houston team) people think that the Big 12 South needs a third dominating team. They don't, and A&M wouldn't be that team anyway.
Michigan over Michigan State... I think we've learned a lot about these teams so far and their records should exactly where they should be.
Notre Dame over Washington... I said last week that any team that loses 15 straight can't turn it around with 2 wins, even if one's over USC. Here comes the Irish freight train to make it 2-16 in the last 18.
Penn State over Illinois... Missouri put in some doubt and Ohio State proved it, Illinois (and their stars) are overrated. That Rose Bowl was a fluke. Penn State will be angry and taking it out on the Juice.
Last Week: 5-5 (25 pts.)
Season: 27-13 (157 pts., 83rd percentile)
Friday, September 25, 2009
Key Players Drive NFL Week 3 Picks
So I was watching the live Sportscenter Friday morning and within 2 minutes Josh Elliott made two mistakes. First, he said "the Royals commit 5 errors and suffer their 100th loss of the season." Yes they committed 5 errors, but their record after losing to Boston Thursday was 63-90... not only was Elliott ten games off, but the Royals CAN'T lose 100 games, worst they could do is 63-99. Then, while heading to commercial he said, "The Jets and Titans meet on Sunday, who's surprising start will continue?" Well, I assume he means we are surprised that the Jets are 2-0 and the Titans are 0-2 (because we are). If that is the case, the two possible outcomes are that both surprising starts will continue or they will both end. CHECK YOUR SCRIPTS!
(NOTE: I was watching the Royals game in bed last night and I called Billy Butler's home run in the eighth. Not when he came to bat, but just before the 3-1 pitch he sent over the left field wall. It's true, ask my wife.)
For this week, I'll be mentioning the key player in each game that will be the difference (or non-difference) in the match-up:
Steelers over Bengals... Chad Ochocinco. If the Bengals offense can move the ball at all, they may stay in this game. Plus a ridiculous touchdown celebration is long overdue.
Redskins over Lions... Chris Cooley. The cooler will be the key to the Redskins continued dominance of the Kittycats.
Packers over Rams... Ryan Grant. The Packers running game is vital to keeping the terrible Rams offense off the field.
Vikings over 49ers... Brett Favre. The Niners defense will be gearing up to stop Peterson, Brett's going to need be at the top of his game to pull it out.
Patriots over Falcons... Patriots o-line. If they can have a running game and keep Matt Ryan off the field, they should win.
Jets over Titans... Mark Sanchez. If he continues to just let the game come to him and not think about the success, they'll be fine.
Eagles over Chiefs... Kevin Kolb. The Chiefs will be gearing up to stop the run and blitzing a ton, he has to stay cool.
Giants over Buccaneers... Eli Manning. He needs to continue to play out of his mind.
Ravens over Browns... (Insert Browns QB here). They aren't going to win a game until they pick someone, and he steps up.
Texans over Jaguars... Steve Slaton. Please, Houston, run the ball. I just traded away Andre Johnson, so keep him out of the endzone.
Bears over Seahawks... Lance Briggs. If the Bears defense is lights out, there is no way Seneca Wallace and the Gulls get close.
Saints over Bills... Reggie Bush. When will he become what we thought he would be?
Broncos over Raiders... Kyle Orton. As long has he continues to masquerade as a winner (and the Broncos keep playing the dregs of the league), they will go far.
Chargers over Dolphins... Ricky Williams. As long as they continue to mess around with the Wildcat, they won't be able to knock out the bigger teams. They need to just run the ball.
Colts over Cardinals... Dallas Clark. My fantasy hero last week, needs to have another big game and keep the Cards defense honest.
Cowboys over Panthers... DeMarcus Ware. He should be able to force 25 more Delhomme turnovers.
Last week: 9-7
Season: 21-11
(NOTE: I was watching the Royals game in bed last night and I called Billy Butler's home run in the eighth. Not when he came to bat, but just before the 3-1 pitch he sent over the left field wall. It's true, ask my wife.)
For this week, I'll be mentioning the key player in each game that will be the difference (or non-difference) in the match-up:
Steelers over Bengals... Chad Ochocinco. If the Bengals offense can move the ball at all, they may stay in this game. Plus a ridiculous touchdown celebration is long overdue.
Redskins over Lions... Chris Cooley. The cooler will be the key to the Redskins continued dominance of the Kittycats.
Packers over Rams... Ryan Grant. The Packers running game is vital to keeping the terrible Rams offense off the field.
Vikings over 49ers... Brett Favre. The Niners defense will be gearing up to stop Peterson, Brett's going to need be at the top of his game to pull it out.
Patriots over Falcons... Patriots o-line. If they can have a running game and keep Matt Ryan off the field, they should win.
Jets over Titans... Mark Sanchez. If he continues to just let the game come to him and not think about the success, they'll be fine.
Eagles over Chiefs... Kevin Kolb. The Chiefs will be gearing up to stop the run and blitzing a ton, he has to stay cool.
Giants over Buccaneers... Eli Manning. He needs to continue to play out of his mind.
Ravens over Browns... (Insert Browns QB here). They aren't going to win a game until they pick someone, and he steps up.
Texans over Jaguars... Steve Slaton. Please, Houston, run the ball. I just traded away Andre Johnson, so keep him out of the endzone.
Bears over Seahawks... Lance Briggs. If the Bears defense is lights out, there is no way Seneca Wallace and the Gulls get close.
Saints over Bills... Reggie Bush. When will he become what we thought he would be?
Broncos over Raiders... Kyle Orton. As long has he continues to masquerade as a winner (and the Broncos keep playing the dregs of the league), they will go far.
Chargers over Dolphins... Ricky Williams. As long as they continue to mess around with the Wildcat, they won't be able to knock out the bigger teams. They need to just run the ball.
Colts over Cardinals... Dallas Clark. My fantasy hero last week, needs to have another big game and keep the Cards defense honest.
Cowboys over Panthers... DeMarcus Ware. He should be able to force 25 more Delhomme turnovers.
Last week: 9-7
Season: 21-11
Thursday, September 24, 2009
College Picks Week 4
Things looked good last week for a lot of teams... Miami, Texas, Missouri, Virginia Tech. Unfortunately it looked bad for USC. Why does that always happen? They go on the road early in the conference and are underwhelming and get upset. And it's one excuse after another for them. I am concerned to see how the Tigers play on the road this week (since St. Louis is a second home for them), especially on a short week, especially on TV. Kansas should be on upset alert after the ridiculous behavior of their athletic teams this week (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4496695)... what happened to the Kansas basketball program? Didn't they used to be stand-up guys you'd bring home to your mother? Now they're just idiots who think they are gansters... thanks, Bill Self, you are a class act.
ESPN College Pick'Em games (least confident to most confident):
Stanford over Washington... 15-game losing streak to the Top 25? Tell me you are not serious.
Pittsburgh over NC State... Panthers just reloaded their backfield, they may challenge Cincy for the Big East title.
Viriginia Tech over Miami... which is the bigger win? Beating Nebraska or Georgia Tech. Really tough call.
California over Oregon... I think Oregon will be fine for the year... they may beat USC or something. Cal has the opportunity to take the driver seat in the Pac10, this time they hold on.
Wisconsin over Michigan State... speaking of underwhelming, how about the Spartans last week?
North Carolina over Georgia Tech... not sure whether to put more stock in UNC convincing win over ECU or G-Tech's humiliating loss to Miami. I'll go with the win.
TCU over Clemson... I'm not giving up on TCU, not matter how much things may have changed at Clemson.
Texas Tech over Houston... can the Cougs pull it out twice?? Probably not.
Notre Dame over Purdue... I hate to say it, but with their schedule, ND might make the BCS.
Penn State over Iowa... just like last week's most confident pick, it's all about revenge.
Last week: 8-2 (45 pts.)
Season: 22-8 (132 pts., 79th percentile)
ESPN College Pick'Em games (least confident to most confident):
Stanford over Washington... 15-game losing streak to the Top 25? Tell me you are not serious.
Pittsburgh over NC State... Panthers just reloaded their backfield, they may challenge Cincy for the Big East title.
Viriginia Tech over Miami... which is the bigger win? Beating Nebraska or Georgia Tech. Really tough call.
California over Oregon... I think Oregon will be fine for the year... they may beat USC or something. Cal has the opportunity to take the driver seat in the Pac10, this time they hold on.
Wisconsin over Michigan State... speaking of underwhelming, how about the Spartans last week?
North Carolina over Georgia Tech... not sure whether to put more stock in UNC convincing win over ECU or G-Tech's humiliating loss to Miami. I'll go with the win.
TCU over Clemson... I'm not giving up on TCU, not matter how much things may have changed at Clemson.
Texas Tech over Houston... can the Cougs pull it out twice?? Probably not.
Notre Dame over Purdue... I hate to say it, but with their schedule, ND might make the BCS.
Penn State over Iowa... just like last week's most confident pick, it's all about revenge.
Last week: 8-2 (45 pts.)
Season: 22-8 (132 pts., 79th percentile)
Sunday, September 20, 2009
NFL Week 2 Picks
(Note these picks were made well before the publishing of this post)
There was a small comment about the season predictions from last week, to which I will respond:
No Love for the Packers to at least make the wild card? That's harsh. At least you're give Favre some credit. -ConnQ (Chicago)
True, at least I gave Favre some credit... more accurately I gave the quarterback's three best friends some credit... running back (Peterson), o-line, and run defense. Honestly, as dangerous as the Packers offense is, there is not much defense there. Especially since they're switching to the 3-4 defense. Just don't think they are one of the 6 best in the NFC.
Here we go rapid fire...
Falcons over Panthers... over-under on Delhomme turnovers? 4? 12? 30??
Vikings over Lions... over-under on Lions wins? 1? 2? 2??
Packers over Bengals... over-under on Bengals wins? 1? 2? 2??
Titans over Texans... thanks Andre Johnson, thanks for your whopping 3 fantasy points last week. That's what you want from the #9 draft pick.
Raiders over Chiefs... over-under on Cassel starts this year? 3? 4? 1??
Patriots over Jets... over-under on Brady touchdowns? 30? 40? 103??
Eagles over Saints... no McNabb, no (real) problem. Do the Saints have a defense?
Redskins over Rams... over-under on Rams points scored this year? 100? 50? 10??
Cardinals over Jaguars... so the Cardinals have never won on the East Coast at Noon games? So what?
49ers over Seahawks... more impressed by the Niners win than the Seahawks win.
Bills over Buccaneers... over-under on TO's bitching sessions? 5? 10? 38??
Steelers over Bears... which team is better without their emotional defensive leader.
Broncos over Browns... I thought the Broncos would be terrible with Orton, but when you start with the Browns and the Bengals, any team would be 2-0... except the Chiefs.
Chargers over Ravens... the vaunted Ravens defense let the Chiefs (with Brodie Croyle at QB) score points. I'm guess the decent Chargers offense is more successful.
Cowboys over Giants... upset special. That's it.
Colts over Dolphins... I think Peyton has something to prove.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 12-4
There was a small comment about the season predictions from last week, to which I will respond:
No Love for the Packers to at least make the wild card? That's harsh. At least you're give Favre some credit. -ConnQ (Chicago)
True, at least I gave Favre some credit... more accurately I gave the quarterback's three best friends some credit... running back (Peterson), o-line, and run defense. Honestly, as dangerous as the Packers offense is, there is not much defense there. Especially since they're switching to the 3-4 defense. Just don't think they are one of the 6 best in the NFC.
Here we go rapid fire...
Falcons over Panthers... over-under on Delhomme turnovers? 4? 12? 30??
Vikings over Lions... over-under on Lions wins? 1? 2? 2??
Packers over Bengals... over-under on Bengals wins? 1? 2? 2??
Titans over Texans... thanks Andre Johnson, thanks for your whopping 3 fantasy points last week. That's what you want from the #9 draft pick.
Raiders over Chiefs... over-under on Cassel starts this year? 3? 4? 1??
Patriots over Jets... over-under on Brady touchdowns? 30? 40? 103??
Eagles over Saints... no McNabb, no (real) problem. Do the Saints have a defense?
Redskins over Rams... over-under on Rams points scored this year? 100? 50? 10??
Cardinals over Jaguars... so the Cardinals have never won on the East Coast at Noon games? So what?
49ers over Seahawks... more impressed by the Niners win than the Seahawks win.
Bills over Buccaneers... over-under on TO's bitching sessions? 5? 10? 38??
Steelers over Bears... which team is better without their emotional defensive leader.
Broncos over Browns... I thought the Broncos would be terrible with Orton, but when you start with the Browns and the Bengals, any team would be 2-0... except the Chiefs.
Chargers over Ravens... the vaunted Ravens defense let the Chiefs (with Brodie Croyle at QB) score points. I'm guess the decent Chargers offense is more successful.
Cowboys over Giants... upset special. That's it.
Colts over Dolphins... I think Peyton has something to prove.
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 12-4
Thursday, September 17, 2009
College Picks Week 3
So it seems as if the folks at ESPN are, in so many words, calling this "Put up or shut up" Week. Several games involve teams that need to find an identity, either mediocre/terrible or contender. Tonight's Georgia Tech vs. Miami game is an example... the winner is for real, the loser may be a pretender. Mizzou better put up on Saturday. Anything less than a 30 point win is inexcusable.
Here are this week's ESPN Pick 'Em games (ordered least confident to most):
-Clemson over Boston College... the Tigers made a valiant effort against Georgia Tech last week, which gives them the nod for me.
-Iowa over Arizona... Big Ten running game against a Stoops defense? I'll take the home team in a near push.
-Auburn over West Virginia... the formally woeful Tiger offense has ran all over the competition, while WVU has pounded weak opponents. Which team is for real? Probably the home team.
-Oregon State over Cincinnati... upset special! Home team plus running game should make the difference in a barn-burner.
-Virginia Tech over Nebraska... I'd love to buy into this Nebraska team... wait. No I wouldn't! Hokies and home.
-Utah over Oregon... I think the Ducks may get back to normal dispute the incident in the opener, but not against the Utes.
-Georgia over Arkansas... I don't buy the hype around Ryan Mallett. Bobby Petrino is still going to suffer from karma for the Atlanta job and Georgia is better than they played at Oklahoma State.
-North Carolina over East Carolina... the Pirates beat a good WVU team last year but lost to an average WVU team this year... that means they are not as dangerous this year.
-California over Minnesota... the Cal running game is too good to be stopped, unless maybe it's USC's defense. They still have to have 14 guys on the field.
-Texas over Texas Tech... YES, IT IS ABOUT REVENGE! And there will be revenge.
Last week: 7-3 (41 pts.)
Overall: 14-6 (87 pts. 83rd percentile)
Here are this week's ESPN Pick 'Em games (ordered least confident to most):
-Clemson over Boston College... the Tigers made a valiant effort against Georgia Tech last week, which gives them the nod for me.
-Iowa over Arizona... Big Ten running game against a Stoops defense? I'll take the home team in a near push.
-Auburn over West Virginia... the formally woeful Tiger offense has ran all over the competition, while WVU has pounded weak opponents. Which team is for real? Probably the home team.
-Oregon State over Cincinnati... upset special! Home team plus running game should make the difference in a barn-burner.
-Virginia Tech over Nebraska... I'd love to buy into this Nebraska team... wait. No I wouldn't! Hokies and home.
-Utah over Oregon... I think the Ducks may get back to normal dispute the incident in the opener, but not against the Utes.
-Georgia over Arkansas... I don't buy the hype around Ryan Mallett. Bobby Petrino is still going to suffer from karma for the Atlanta job and Georgia is better than they played at Oklahoma State.
-North Carolina over East Carolina... the Pirates beat a good WVU team last year but lost to an average WVU team this year... that means they are not as dangerous this year.
-California over Minnesota... the Cal running game is too good to be stopped, unless maybe it's USC's defense. They still have to have 14 guys on the field.
-Texas over Texas Tech... YES, IT IS ABOUT REVENGE! And there will be revenge.
Last week: 7-3 (41 pts.)
Overall: 14-6 (87 pts. 83rd percentile)
Saturday, September 12, 2009
College Picks Week 2
Eventually I might work in some funny or entertaining themes, but today I'll just talk turkey. To start, Missouri should stroll to a easy win this week. With the way the offense struggled to get started last week, I would have thought this would be interesting... especially considering Bowling Green upset Troy last week. Then I remember how the defense played... Bowling Green will struggle to stay on the field and their defense will break eventually (just as Illinois' did)... Mizzou 30 - BG 10.
The ten games ESPN is having me pick... in order of my confidence (least confident to most confident):
- USC over Ohio State... I honestly have no idea who will win this one. USC is probably better, but with a freshman quarterback making his second start in the Horseshoe? That makes it harder to be confident in USC.
- Tennessee over UCLA... I'd love to stick it to Lane Kiffin (he's been quite the douchebag since joining Tennessee) but playing at home against an unproven UCLA team I'm giving them the nod.
- Wisconsin over Fresno State... not sure why this game is on here. Take the home Badgers, but could be close.
- Auburn over Mississippi State... remember the touchdown-less contest last year? I garauntee at least 2 this year.
- Stanford over Wake Forest... which school has the better grades? Won't matter, Toby Gerhardt runs amuck in Winston-Salem.
- Georgia over South Carolina... Expect the 'Dogs to bounce back after getting embarrassed in Stillwater.
- Notre Dame over Michigan... I just think the Notre Dame defense makes the difference. Close, high-scoring game.
- BYU over Tulane... careful, this is a trap game. Coming off the big win against OU, and then Florida State next week, they better win.
- North Carolina over Connecticut... don't sleep on the Tar Heels, should be playing in a big bowl by year's end.
- TCU over Virginia... the dangerous dark horse Frogs open the season against a team who lost to William & Mary... not sure if that's a football team or a new Hollywood couple.
My rankings will come out after week 5... be ready for controversy.
The ten games ESPN is having me pick... in order of my confidence (least confident to most confident):
- USC over Ohio State... I honestly have no idea who will win this one. USC is probably better, but with a freshman quarterback making his second start in the Horseshoe? That makes it harder to be confident in USC.
- Tennessee over UCLA... I'd love to stick it to Lane Kiffin (he's been quite the douchebag since joining Tennessee) but playing at home against an unproven UCLA team I'm giving them the nod.
- Wisconsin over Fresno State... not sure why this game is on here. Take the home Badgers, but could be close.
- Auburn over Mississippi State... remember the touchdown-less contest last year? I garauntee at least 2 this year.
- Stanford over Wake Forest... which school has the better grades? Won't matter, Toby Gerhardt runs amuck in Winston-Salem.
- Georgia over South Carolina... Expect the 'Dogs to bounce back after getting embarrassed in Stillwater.
- Notre Dame over Michigan... I just think the Notre Dame defense makes the difference. Close, high-scoring game.
- BYU over Tulane... careful, this is a trap game. Coming off the big win against OU, and then Florida State next week, they better win.
- North Carolina over Connecticut... don't sleep on the Tar Heels, should be playing in a big bowl by year's end.
- TCU over Virginia... the dangerous dark horse Frogs open the season against a team who lost to William & Mary... not sure if that's a football team or a new Hollywood couple.
My rankings will come out after week 5... be ready for controversy.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
NFL '09 Predictions
I failed to mention my 10 picks last week for the college openers. I will reveal my 10 picks for the ESPN College Pick 'em Challenge (and the Mizzou game if it's not there) every week. I was 7-3 last week, missing Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. While I picked Oklahoma, I really wanted to take BYU... and let it be known that I knew Bradford would get hurt behind that new o-line, just didn't think it would be this early.
So for the NFL in '09... we better enjoy this because we may be headed for a cheap-o '10 and a lockout in '11, because the new Collective Bargaining Agreement talks could go south quickly by the end of this year.
Here is how I figure the divisions will shape up (playoff teams in italics):
AFC West - Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos
AFC East - Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Jets
AFC North - Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals
AFC South - Titans, Colts, Texans, Jaguars
NFC West - Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks
NFC East - Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins
NFC North - Vikings, Packers, Bears, Lions
NFC South - Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers
AFC Playoffs - Chargers over Ravens, Steelers over Colts, Patriots over Chargers, Steelers over Titans, Steelers over Patriots.
NFC Playoffs - Eagles over Vikings, Saints over Cardinals, Cowboys over Saints, Eagles over Falcons, Cowboys over Eagles.
Super Bowl - Cowboys over Steelers
It pains me to say it, but, yeah, the Cowboys... my third-most-hated team (behind Broncos and Raiders). That redo punt rule because of the video board will make a huge difference (unless they change the rule mid-season).
For week one, my picks go like this...
- Steelers over Titans... expect this game to jump start the Titans to another 12+ wins but lay the ground work for a Steelers road playoff upset on the way to the Super Bowl.
- Falcons over Dolphins... I have Matt Ryan as my fantasy back-up. I am fully prepared to promote him if at any point he outplays Aaron Rodgers.
- Bengals over Broncos... the Broncos are this year's Lions... no, seriously.
- Vikings over Browns... a wise man once said "If you have 2 quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks." Plus, it's early and Favre's not playing injured yet.
- Colts over Jaguars... Peyton Manning does not like to lose at home... period.
- Cowboys over Bucs... no TO, no PacMan, great team.
- Eagles over Panthers... I can't stand Michael Vick anymore, what he did is unforgiveable. Unfortunately, he will help make the Eagles VERY dangerous... seriously, McNabb, Westbrook, Vick, Machlin, Jackson, Baskett... who gets the ball? All of them.
- Ravens over Chiefs... it's almost laughable that we spent soooo much money on a career back-up (for like the 10th time in franchise history, I might add) and he'll miss the first couple of games... not like we had a shot at the playoffs anyway.
- Texans over Jets... I feel bad that the Texans could go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. If they were in the West instead of the South, they'd go 12-4, like the Chargers will.
- Giants over Redskins... can't pick the 'Skins for dumping their second-best quarterback, good luck with Todd Collins.
- Cardinals over 49ers... just like last year for Kurt & Co., expect everyone can see it coming and they will be prepared for you in the playoffs.
- Rams over Seahawks... totally a "what the hell" pick. I have no idea which team is worse.
- Packers over Bears... welcome to the NFC North Jay Cutler! Remember when Bears/Packers games were like 13-9 slugfests... if the over-under on total points was 100, I'd take the over.
- Patriots over Bills... welcome to the AFC East (but will feel like the North) Terrell Owens! Buffalo football weather is brutal. Have fun catching rocks and landing on concrete. Maybe one ball will hit your helmet just right it'll convince you to leave football alone!
- Chargers over Raiders... if I were the Chargers and I was expecting to get 6 free wins from divisional games (they will), I wouldn't play my starters in the second half of any of those games. They'll still win by 20. Plus I'm hoping Darren Sproles fantasy value goes up so people will want to trade me for him... cause he may just collect dust on my bench.
See you tomorrow for College Picks
So for the NFL in '09... we better enjoy this because we may be headed for a cheap-o '10 and a lockout in '11, because the new Collective Bargaining Agreement talks could go south quickly by the end of this year.
Here is how I figure the divisions will shape up (playoff teams in italics):
AFC West - Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos
AFC East - Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Jets
AFC North - Steelers, Ravens, Browns, Bengals
AFC South - Titans, Colts, Texans, Jaguars
NFC West - Cardinals, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks
NFC East - Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins
NFC North - Vikings, Packers, Bears, Lions
NFC South - Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Buccaneers
AFC Playoffs - Chargers over Ravens, Steelers over Colts, Patriots over Chargers, Steelers over Titans, Steelers over Patriots.
NFC Playoffs - Eagles over Vikings, Saints over Cardinals, Cowboys over Saints, Eagles over Falcons, Cowboys over Eagles.
Super Bowl - Cowboys over Steelers
It pains me to say it, but, yeah, the Cowboys... my third-most-hated team (behind Broncos and Raiders). That redo punt rule because of the video board will make a huge difference (unless they change the rule mid-season).
For week one, my picks go like this...
- Steelers over Titans... expect this game to jump start the Titans to another 12+ wins but lay the ground work for a Steelers road playoff upset on the way to the Super Bowl.
- Falcons over Dolphins... I have Matt Ryan as my fantasy back-up. I am fully prepared to promote him if at any point he outplays Aaron Rodgers.
- Bengals over Broncos... the Broncos are this year's Lions... no, seriously.
- Vikings over Browns... a wise man once said "If you have 2 quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks." Plus, it's early and Favre's not playing injured yet.
- Colts over Jaguars... Peyton Manning does not like to lose at home... period.
- Cowboys over Bucs... no TO, no PacMan, great team.
- Eagles over Panthers... I can't stand Michael Vick anymore, what he did is unforgiveable. Unfortunately, he will help make the Eagles VERY dangerous... seriously, McNabb, Westbrook, Vick, Machlin, Jackson, Baskett... who gets the ball? All of them.
- Ravens over Chiefs... it's almost laughable that we spent soooo much money on a career back-up (for like the 10th time in franchise history, I might add) and he'll miss the first couple of games... not like we had a shot at the playoffs anyway.
- Texans over Jets... I feel bad that the Texans could go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. If they were in the West instead of the South, they'd go 12-4, like the Chargers will.
- Giants over Redskins... can't pick the 'Skins for dumping their second-best quarterback, good luck with Todd Collins.
- Cardinals over 49ers... just like last year for Kurt & Co., expect everyone can see it coming and they will be prepared for you in the playoffs.
- Rams over Seahawks... totally a "what the hell" pick. I have no idea which team is worse.
- Packers over Bears... welcome to the NFC North Jay Cutler! Remember when Bears/Packers games were like 13-9 slugfests... if the over-under on total points was 100, I'd take the over.
- Patriots over Bills... welcome to the AFC East (but will feel like the North) Terrell Owens! Buffalo football weather is brutal. Have fun catching rocks and landing on concrete. Maybe one ball will hit your helmet just right it'll convince you to leave football alone!
- Chargers over Raiders... if I were the Chargers and I was expecting to get 6 free wins from divisional games (they will), I wouldn't play my starters in the second half of any of those games. They'll still win by 20. Plus I'm hoping Darren Sproles fantasy value goes up so people will want to trade me for him... cause he may just collect dust on my bench.
See you tomorrow for College Picks
Thursday, September 3, 2009
College Football '09 Preview
The always long-awaited college football season begins tonight, so here are my thoughts on the upcoming season.
I whole-heartedly agree with most of the pundits about the situation at Michigan. To assume that a top-tier program can maintain an expected level of competitiveness (or in this case return to a ridiculously high level of expectations) on only 20 hours of practice/training/film study is insane. Many hours of voluntary work are necessary and the crux of the situation falls on the student-athlete's interpretation of a coach's discussion of "voluntary workouts."
I'm a propent of the idea that it takes a new coach 3 years to do his job to the best of his abilities. He needs time to adjust coaching staff and fill the roster with his recruits... and then you have to factor in injuries, academic performance, and off-field problems of star players. Look at what has happened to Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Syracuse and UCLA. Once-great programs falling to mediocrity (or worse) for multiple reasons. It boggles the mind, but shows the well-knowledged followers how difficult it can be to succeed.
That being said, here are my best guesses for the conferences (not broken up by division).
ACC - Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, UNC, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia. I anticipate the option continuing to boggle the minds of defensive coordinators throughout the ACC as the Yellow Jackets put themselves on the fringe of the National Championship picture.
BigTen - Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue. Penn State has the best quarterback, Minnesota the best receiver, Iowa the best o-line, Ohio State the best defense... expect a close race with each of the top 5 teams getting 2 or 3 losses.
Big12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State. I don't buy the rebuilding hype coming out of Colorado, K-State or A&M, but I do buy the Baylor hype. Kansas will have 4 conference loses, Texas beats OU, Missouri beats Nebraska but not OSU or Texas, and Oklahoma is shutout of the BCS for the first time in years.
Big East - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse. WVU and UConn take a step back, Pitt a step up, South Florida can't make it over the hump, Syracuse 2 years away from returning.
C-USA - Houston, East Carolina, UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF, UAB, Tulane, SMU. Can someone tell me why June Jones left Hawaii for the dead-in-the-water program at SMU? Houston's offense will set many records (HINT: dark-horse BCS team).
MAC - Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State, Toledo, Akron, Kent State, Temple, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH). I really know nothing about this conference other that Buffalo played well last year, CMU has a great quarterback, WMU a great running game, and nothing else.
Pac-10 - USC, Oregon, California, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Arizona State, Washington State. Don't see a chink in USC's armor other than the freshman quarterback, but gotta love the defense. Look out for Arizona to challenge.
SEC - Florida, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Miss State, Kentucky, Tennessee. Everyone says Florida has what it takes to repeat, if they mean as SEC Champs, then I agree; most SEC fans will welcome Tennessee at the bottom of the conference; Ole Miss is slightly overrated and LSU slightly underrated.
SunBelt - Troy, FAU, Arkansas State, Mid Ten State, FIU, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe. Call me crazy, but I think Troy is this year's Ball State, WKU will start to emerge as a quality team, and the ULs will go virtually winless.
Mountain West - TCU, BYU, Utah, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. With their defense, TCU could go undefeated; if BYU beats Oklahoma, which they could, they could go undefeated; Utah could do it again.
WAC - Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Utah State. Boise State is the trendy dark horse, but they will lose to either Oregon or Nevada, or both; Nevada is going to be a tough out; Fresno State is will be typical.
Independents - Notre Dame, Navy, Army. All I can say is Notre Dame and Navy will be competitive, not BCS competitive, just competitive.
So my BCS Top 10 would look like this: Texas, USC, Penn State, Florida, TCU, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Houston.
My money is on Texas this year, but it should be a fun season.
I whole-heartedly agree with most of the pundits about the situation at Michigan. To assume that a top-tier program can maintain an expected level of competitiveness (or in this case return to a ridiculously high level of expectations) on only 20 hours of practice/training/film study is insane. Many hours of voluntary work are necessary and the crux of the situation falls on the student-athlete's interpretation of a coach's discussion of "voluntary workouts."
I'm a propent of the idea that it takes a new coach 3 years to do his job to the best of his abilities. He needs time to adjust coaching staff and fill the roster with his recruits... and then you have to factor in injuries, academic performance, and off-field problems of star players. Look at what has happened to Miami, Nebraska, Florida State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Syracuse and UCLA. Once-great programs falling to mediocrity (or worse) for multiple reasons. It boggles the mind, but shows the well-knowledged followers how difficult it can be to succeed.
That being said, here are my best guesses for the conferences (not broken up by division).
ACC - Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, UNC, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia. I anticipate the option continuing to boggle the minds of defensive coordinators throughout the ACC as the Yellow Jackets put themselves on the fringe of the National Championship picture.
BigTen - Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue. Penn State has the best quarterback, Minnesota the best receiver, Iowa the best o-line, Ohio State the best defense... expect a close race with each of the top 5 teams getting 2 or 3 losses.
Big12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Colorado, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Iowa State. I don't buy the rebuilding hype coming out of Colorado, K-State or A&M, but I do buy the Baylor hype. Kansas will have 4 conference loses, Texas beats OU, Missouri beats Nebraska but not OSU or Texas, and Oklahoma is shutout of the BCS for the first time in years.
Big East - Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse. WVU and UConn take a step back, Pitt a step up, South Florida can't make it over the hump, Syracuse 2 years away from returning.
C-USA - Houston, East Carolina, UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF, UAB, Tulane, SMU. Can someone tell me why June Jones left Hawaii for the dead-in-the-water program at SMU? Houston's offense will set many records (HINT: dark-horse BCS team).
MAC - Buffalo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State, Toledo, Akron, Kent State, Temple, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Miami (OH). I really know nothing about this conference other that Buffalo played well last year, CMU has a great quarterback, WMU a great running game, and nothing else.
Pac-10 - USC, Oregon, California, Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Arizona State, Washington State. Don't see a chink in USC's armor other than the freshman quarterback, but gotta love the defense. Look out for Arizona to challenge.
SEC - Florida, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Miss State, Kentucky, Tennessee. Everyone says Florida has what it takes to repeat, if they mean as SEC Champs, then I agree; most SEC fans will welcome Tennessee at the bottom of the conference; Ole Miss is slightly overrated and LSU slightly underrated.
SunBelt - Troy, FAU, Arkansas State, Mid Ten State, FIU, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe. Call me crazy, but I think Troy is this year's Ball State, WKU will start to emerge as a quality team, and the ULs will go virtually winless.
Mountain West - TCU, BYU, Utah, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming. With their defense, TCU could go undefeated; if BYU beats Oklahoma, which they could, they could go undefeated; Utah could do it again.
WAC - Boise State, Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Utah State. Boise State is the trendy dark horse, but they will lose to either Oregon or Nevada, or both; Nevada is going to be a tough out; Fresno State is will be typical.
Independents - Notre Dame, Navy, Army. All I can say is Notre Dame and Navy will be competitive, not BCS competitive, just competitive.
So my BCS Top 10 would look like this: Texas, USC, Penn State, Florida, TCU, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Houston.
My money is on Texas this year, but it should be a fun season.
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