Friday, September 24, 2010

The Q Factor

In honor of ConnQ's birthday, this week's picks (again combined) will focus on the Q-Factor, or what I believe ConnQ would think is the most important part of each game.

College Picks:
Boston College over Virginia Tech - Q-Factor: the Hokies' collective memory. Sure, they "redeemed" themselves after the loss to James Madison (not just one guy) by pounding ECU. But they trailed at halftime and didn't really take over until ECU starting making mistakes. If they are still thinking about the 0-2 start, they'll choke this one up.

Georgia Tech over NC State - Q-Factor: NC State's athleticism. Georgia Tech lost to kansas, who has lost to North Dakota St. and Southern Miss. How did Georgia Tech lose to kansas? The jayhawks are athletic and used their speed to keep the Jackets off-balance all game. Plus the triple option is not difficult to prepare for if you are athletic and well coached.

South Carolina over Auburn - Q-Factor: Press clippings. Are the Gamecocks reading the papers? If so, they'll be hearing that this is their chance to win the SEC East. It's too early to worry about that, so if they are, they'll lose focus.

Mississippi State over Georgia - Q-Factor: Dan Mullins. In the span of a week, I've gained respect for South Carolina and lost it for Georgia. Dan Mullins was at Florida for the recent back and forth with Georgia. He knows how to beat them, let's see if he has the talent yet.

Stanford over Notre Dame - Q-Factor: Notre Dame quarterbacking. I don't care who it is, they've got to help keep the Stanford offense off the field by controlling the ball. They've yet to go a game without a turnover and have 6 in the last two.

Boise State over Oregon State - Q-Factor: Beaver defense. If they can keep for giving up scores and big plays early, the Boise crowd might get restless. They'll need a 40-point fourth quarter lead to hold off Kellen Moore, though.

LSU over West Virginia - Q-Factor: LSU crowd. The only way LSU can lose this game is if the crowd gets disinterested or taken out by some big plays. Both teams are looking to prove something and the crowd has a chance to lift the Tigers above WVU.

Alabama over Arkansas - Q-Factor: Arkansas defense. Talk all you want about Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas offense. The only thing that matters is if they can get stops on the other side of the ball consistently. I don't think they can.

Nevada over BYU - Q-Factor: Colin Kappernick. Only because it's all up to him how many yards and points the Wolf Pack add up.

Oregon over Arizona State - Q-Factor: Sun Devil magic. Do they have any? They almost pulled off the huge upset in Madison last week. If it exists, they'll need it now.

Last Week: 6-4 (43 pts.)
Season: 18-12 (116 pts.)

Pro Picks:
Chiefs over 49ers - Q-Factor: Arrowhead. In all seriousness, the Chiefs are playing with a lot of heart, and the best way to keep that up is to play in front of a rabid home crowd. The crowd was a huge factor in the opener, if the fans show up knowing they can help build a 3-0 start, they win. Plus, most of the Niners will think it's 10 am at kickoff, they may still be asleep.

Ravens over Browns - Q-Factor: Joe Flacco. Time to use that short memory Joe. The Browns are the perfect cure for what ails you.

Texans over Cowboys - Q-Factor: Faith. What's been the biggest knocks on the consistently average Texans? They can't beat the Colts and they are always in the Cowboys' shadows. Well, they took care of one, time to believe in the Moo Cows.

Vikings over Lions - Q-Factor: Jahvid Best. The next MJD? Maybe. But they'll need to clone him because his back will give out carrying the Lions after week five.

Patriots over Bills - Q-Factor: Tom Brady. So you sucked last week, did you? You're punishment will be to play the Bills. Wait, that's not punishment? That's a reward? Dang. It didn't used to be.

Saints over Falcons - Q-Factor: Saints defensive game plan. Can they hold the Falcons down long enough for the offense to find their rhythm. (Hey, Drew, it's week 3. Isn't time you started playing like the defending champs?)

Titans over Giants - Q-Factor: Titans o-line. The Colts ran all over the Giants because of some whacky game planning. They need to remember who is in the backfield.

Steelers over Buccaneers - Q-Factor: Reality. Time for Tampa to realize they are 2-0 against the Browns and the Panthers. Only slightly easy, that's all.

Bengals over Panthers - Q-Factor: Bengals' corners. It only took two games to realize you have a better chance of winning with Jimmy Clausen instead of Matt Moore? Really? Cincinnati picked off Joe Flacco like he was throwing Get-Out-of-Jail-Free cards, expect more of the same.

Eagles over Jaguars - Q-Factor: Jacksonville linebacking. Coached by one of the greats, they need to be ready to chase Vick all over the field. Chances of success? Slim to none.

Redskins over Rams - Q-Factor: Rams o-line. Keep Bradford upright and they've got a slim chance. The Skins may have figured out the yellow pants are ugly, but a consistent offense is still out of their grasps.

Colts over Broncos - Q-Factor: Joseph Addai. Keep running like that, man. I'll need another 20 fantasy points from you this week.

Raiders over Cardinals - Q-Factor: Jason Campbell. He needs to find his niche on this team or he'll end up like Aaron Brooks and Jamarcus Russell (two other big-armed black QBs for the Raiders), collecting unemployment.

Chargers over Seahawks - Q-Factor: Mike Tolbert. He's already out-gained Mathews, he has a chance to put the rookie on the bench, permanently.

Jets over Dolphins - Q-Factor: Which Jets' team shows up. Week one failures or week two stunners... the Dolphins are hoping for the first one.

Packers over Bears - Q-Factor: Ryan Grant. The Cowboys ran for 36 yards last week, allowing the Bears to key in on the passing game. Grant needs to get going to keep the heat off Mr. Rodgers.

Last Week: 9-7
Season 18-14

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Good picks over all. And you did pickout things I would find important. A few examples:

G-Tech over NC State - you got the pick wrong, but the Q-Factor was spot on for me, and the result: "Plus the triple option is not difficult to prepare for if you are athletic and well coached." So true.


Boise State over Oregon State - right pick and right Q-Factor: "If they can keep for giving up scores and big plays early, the Boise crowd might get restless." They couldn't (of course, for Boise State a 4 play 81 yard touchdown drive isn't filled with "big plays" those are just "plays") The couldn't stop the big ones, Boise won.

LSU over West Virgina & Chiefs over 49ers - Right Picks & Spot on Q-Factor - "the Crowd" in both these games the crowd won the game. At LSU the fans know if they can find an offense, they can contend in the SEC (and the fans definately want LSU to be relevant again). For the Chiefs, the fans realized in Week 1 - the Chiefs aren't that bad this year, and we can help.

The biggest fault I find is, to me, the most important pick - that's right the Packers. Packers over Bears. Obviously this is the right pick, however, the Q-Factor is a bit off. Q-Factor - Ryan Grant. Right idea, wrong analysis. "Grant needs to get going to keep the heat off Mr. Rodgers." I wish Grant could get going - but he's sidelined for the year. If the Packers can crack 100 rushing with a combo of replacement backs, they win big.