With apologies to the NFL Draft (possible blog after it's all said and done), I'd like to run through my thoughts and prediction for the NBA Playoffs, also known as "Can Anyone Stop the Heat?"
I know the first round has already started and predicting the results at this point isn't exactly going out on a limb, but hear me out. It's also not a stretch to just pick the Heat to win it all, but what I'm presenting is more of a blueprint for how they might get beat.
After the first games of each series, when all the home teams won and certain "sure things" were "no shows" (Steph Curry, Chicago's defense, James Harden, Memphis's defense), a lot of people were thinking there wouldn't be any Game 7s (maybe no Game 6s either). Well, now it seems as if the series that were going to be tight are close and nothing looks out of place (except for the lack of Kobe Bryant). Here is my breakdown of each series... I promise to have Round 2 ready before it starts.
Miami over Milwaukee in 4
Anything less that a sweep would be a disappointment. The Bucks are the only playoff team under .500 (happens every year with the 8 seed in the East) and the can't match up with Miami. It's a "pick your poison" for them. They can keep their defensive wings out on the floor to ATTEMPT to contain LeBron and Wade, or they can go small and ATTEMPT to out-score the Heat. I could see Ellis, Jennings and Reddick heating up in Game 4 to steal one, but do you think LeBron will let that happen?
Knicks over Celtics in 5
Before the series started my gut would have said Celtics in 7, but they have not looked strong on offense yet. They are seriously missing Rondo (and Ray Allen for that matter). They may be strong on defense without him, but without him they rely too heavily on Pierce and Green, and those two are going to be working hard on the other end against Carmelo. Between how NY plays defense and how Carmelo and Smith can break your back on the other end, the Celtics are sunk. Now that it's 2-0 for the Knicks, expect the Celtics to get Game 3 in the Garden and the Knicks to close it out in MSG.
Pacers over Hawks in 5
When the best defensive team in the league finds an offensive rhythm, and they are facing a team that dumped it's biggest offensive threat to Brooklyn, I'm tempted to call for a sweep. I can't do that, it's too much of a jinx. Plus, it will be good for the Pacers to lose Game 4 in Atlanta so they can get a bad loss out of their system and win Game 1 in MSG (because if they sweep the Hawks, expect the Knicks to destroy them in Game 1... the Pacers will be too overconfident... think Kentucky after losing the meaningless SEC Championship in 2012).
Bulls over Nets in 7
The way Chicago played last night, you might think they can win in 5, but I think Brooklyn wins Games 5 & 6 on sheer offensive willpower. Defense wins you championships, but offense makes it easier on the defense. I don't expect the Bulls to have another offensively strong game like last night until Game 7. Maybe they win Game 4 and Noah sits Game 5, something strange will happen, I'm sure. They can't play THAT well on both ends for 2 more games, but they'll wear down the weak Nets eventually.
Thunder over Rockets in 4
There is a reason OKC let Harden go so easily... some day we'll know. It's not all about money. I think it's because they'd rather have Sefalosha's defense and they can use unselfish role players (Martin and Fisher) to pick up the offensive slack. Think about it: the Thunder can defend you at 3 positions better than most teams (outside of the Pacers) with Perkins, Ibaka and Sefalosha. Then they can find a way to go small and Durant is still an above-average defender and you'll probably decided to go small so that you aren't using a 4 to defend him. Sure, Harden allows you to sit Westbrook and Durant for short periods together (if absolutely necessary), but he doesn't defend elite guards well at all. I'd rather have Sefalosha to guard Kobe (if he were healthy), Paul, Ginobili/Leonard, and Curry/Thompson. Houston can't keep up with OKC.
Spurs over Lakers in 4
How strange is this? It was widely discussed that the Spurs were "tanking" so they could avoid a 1 v. 8 series with the Lakers... then the Lakers caught fire, the Rockets faded, and here we are: a Spurs/Lakers 2 v. 7 series. The Spurs TOTALLY LUCKED OUT when Kobe got hurt. They haven't played very well and are still up 2-0. If Gasol or Howard wants to be considered an elite franchise player, they'll lead the Lakers to a win or two and salvage respectability. If they really want to stick it to Kobe "I'll Throw Anyone Under the Bus if it Suits Me" Bryant, they'd win the series... but that would take a tremendous effort (and the Spurs won't let that happen).
Nuggets over Warriors in 7
You like offensive? Stay glued to this series. Have a hard time with bright blue and yellow colors? Avoid this series (also, avoid it if you love defense). The winner of this series gets to attempt to prove youth/athleticism can beat experience/intelligence against the Spurs. I love the odds for either team. I'm taking the Nuggets here unless they can't steal one in Oakland. If the Warriors go up 3-1? They'll win in 6. Unfortunately, David Lee is too vital for Golden State inside. Missing his presence puts a ton of pressure on the Warriors interior (not that he'a great defender or Denver has a strong inside offense, just his presence). This will wear down the Warrior bench and Curry has another bad game in him, watch.
Grizzlies over Clippers in 7
Finally, Memphis went inside and used their strength against LA's weakness. Unless Paul figures out how to score 25 every game and Griffin figures out how to keep Z-Bo from getting 20 rebounds and 10 put-backs every game, I don't see them pulling it out. Plus, the Clippers lack coaching... they can't win if the crunch-time stratedgy is "give the ball to Chris every time," especially if Tony Allen is guarding him.
Current Picks for the Rest of the Playoffs:
Heat over Bulls in 5
Pacers over Knicks in 7
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Spurs over Nuggets in 6
Heat over Pacers in 6
Thunder over Spurs in 6
Heat over Thunder in 5
How the remaining teams can keep that from happening:
In all seriousness, the Heat are beatable. The Bulls could bully them around until a fight breaks out and LeBron and Wade both get 4 game suspensions. The Knicks can get 30 from Carmelo for 6 straight games and play Chandler and Martin at the same time to keep LeBron and Wade from getting easy inside baskets, forcing outside shots and maybe they miss a lot of them (plus JR Smith has to go ape-shit). The Pacers could get George AND Hibbert to average triple-doubles and also hope the Heat go cold from the outside. Memphis has the defense to beat the Heat in 7, they'd have to get there first AND have Z-Bo turn in a Hall-of-Fame series (bullying Bosh into submission). Chris Paul could go bananas in pursuit of his first title, but he'd need the rest of the Clippers to turn in defensive performances they've never produced before. The Spurs could win by frustrating Miami with near-perfect, intelligent offense and frustrating "old-man" defense. Finally, the Thunder have the offensive horses to keep pace and the defensive talent/strength to do the job... but everything has to go perfectly.
That's the problem.
- LeBron is the best player. The other team would need to have AT LEAST one guy play better than LeBron, not just in scoring, but ACROSS THE BOARD (Durant and Carmelo really the only capable ones).
- The other team's rotation defense would HAVE to be perfect AND the all the Heat's spot-up shooters would have to go ice cold (and they have Ray Allen, the best 3-point shooter EVER).
- The other team needs a post game that could take over games and slow the pace (Memphis and San Antonio are capable) AND that team would need the confidence to stick with a big line-up when the Heat go with LeBron at the 4 (which would be hard for Memphis/SA because that means Z-Bo/Duncan has to guard LeBron or someone smaller).
- The other team's offense would have to be so efficient that it limited the Heat to so few transition opportunities that they couldn't go on any devastating runs (OKC could, but the like to play fast too... SA, NY and Indiana would be the most successful).
- The other team would have to win the rebounding edge (specifically on offense) by such a wide margin that even the casual fan would notice (OKC, SA, NY, Indiana can Chicago could if they avoided going small... because a LeBron/Anderson tandem out-rebounds any other "small" frontcourt).
FINALLY, all this would have to happen for 4 games out of 7, including at least once IN MIAMI... I could see OKC, SA or NY doing that for 6 of 10 or 7 of 13... but to have the horses in the barn and the stratedy on the court all at the same time to make up for whatever insane damage LeBron is doing is HIGHLY unlikely.
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